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Texas may be presidential player after all
News-Journal ^ | March 16, 2012 | Jason Embry

Posted on 03/16/2012 6:18:54 AM PDT by Cincinatus' Wife

AUSTIN — Mitt Romney missed another chance Tuesday to diminish the importance of the May 29 presidential primary in Texas.

Romney could have taken a big step toward the GOP nomination with victories in Mississippi and Alabama, but he finished third in each state behind Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich. Those losses renewed questions about Romney’s support among the Republican base.

Set aside for a moment the fact Romney has a solid delegate lead, stands to do better in non-Southern states and, thanks to voters in Hawaii and American Samoa, actually captured the most delegates Tuesday. Santorum’s victories solidified him as Romney’s main competitor and signaled that the Republican race isn’t near its finish.

Which brings us to Texas. When a lengthy court fight over redistricting pushed our primaries from March 6 to May 29, many of us thought Texas would be too late in the nomination calendar to matter. And with 11 weeks to go before our primaries, Romney has plenty of time to establish his inevitability. But even if he does, there will probably be something to play for in Texas.

Perhaps Gingrich will fade in the coming weeks and leave Santorum as the only credible alternative to Romney, creating a one-on-one race that lasts all the way until the end. Romney has a better organization and more money, but Santorum doesn’t seem to need much of either. And given conservatives’ doubts about Romney, Santorum could thrive in a one-on-one contest.

“Rick Santorum will win the Texas primary and dramatically close the public delegate gap with Mitt Romney on May 29th,” the Santorum campaign said in a strategy memo that BuzzFeed posted online.

But even if Romney, who The Associated Press reports has 495 delegates, goes on a healthy winning streak in April and early May and Santorum loses momentum, Romney is still unlikely to wrap up the 1,144 delegates needed for the nomination by May 29.

As long as nobody has locked down the nomination, Texas will have considerable value.

It will be difficult for Santorum to get to 1,144 delegates before the August convention. But a strong showing in Texas could help him stop Romney from getting to 1,144, pushing the decision to conservative GOP convention-goers in Tampa, Fla.

Gingrich also seems to think he could succeed by pushing the fight to the convention, so he just may be in the race when Texas comes around, too.

“After the primaries are over,” Gingrich said in his Tuesday night speech, “it will be obvious that the so-called front-runner in fact didn’t get there, and from that point on, we’ll be in a whole new conversation.”

In other words, this race could go the distance. And with 155 Texas delegates up for grabs on May 29 (to be awarded proportionally) and with 300 more at stake when California and four other states vote June 5, why would the field clear for Romney before then?

So, take heart, Republican primary voters; your candidates are eventually, probably, coming to town. Well, maybe not this Democratic town. But Dallas and Houston are just a few hours away.


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Constitution/Conservatism; Editorial; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: gopprimary; newt2012; nottromney; santorum2012; tx2012; txprimary

1 posted on 03/16/2012 6:19:03 AM PDT by Cincinatus' Wife
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To: Cincinatus' Wife

RINOmney is a vapid dork.
His weather vane generates maximum torque.
There’s not an idea he won’t hold.
Until he’s changed by the latest poll.
If I want a president without merit
Why not keep the muslim ferret?


2 posted on 03/16/2012 6:38:50 AM PDT by Da Coyote
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To: Cincinatus' Wife

If Romney ends up being the nominee, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Texas in play in the general election. If Texas goes blue, the country’s certifiably finished.


3 posted on 03/16/2012 6:41:33 AM PDT by ScottinVA (A single drop of American blood for muslims is one drop too many!)
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To: ScottinVA

If Texas goes blue, the country’s certifiably finished.

???...When pigs fly, Scott.

Texas will come through with flying colors for Rick Santorum, leaving a confused Romney is his wake... “What happened? I practiced and got “y’all” down.”

What I will enjoy on primary night is seeing Rove on Faux trying to explain away his HOME STATE of Texas’s victory for Rick as he frantically scratches out a Mittens Plan B on his stupid white board.


4 posted on 03/16/2012 6:54:24 AM PDT by Mountain Mary ("This is OUR country and WE will decide"... Mark Levin)
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To: Cincinatus' Wife

For the first time in a very long time Texas will indeed be a player in this year’s primary and I, along with my entire family will be voting for Newt!

The party establishment and the press can go straight to h*ll!

I’m sick and tired of taking what they have been shoving down our throats and IT AIN’T gonna happen this time!


5 posted on 03/16/2012 7:04:56 AM PDT by Bigun ("The most fearsome words in the English language are I'm from the government and I'm here to help!")
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To: Mountain Mary

You express youself so well :)) ....I can just picture Rove’s stupid white board :)


6 posted on 03/16/2012 7:07:41 AM PDT by Guenevere (....Whom God calls,... He equips......Press On Santorum!)
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To: ScottinVA

I live in Texas, and trust me....this state is NOT blue!
We like conservatives. My husband and brother are for Rick Santorum and I am for Gingrich. Now I know my sister likes Romney, but she also likes Gingrich. Austin Texas is a liberal town but the rest of Texas is not.


7 posted on 03/16/2012 7:10:40 AM PDT by astratt7 (obama,muslim,politics)
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To: Guenevere

Karl doesn’t like us. He told me that Freepers are a bunch o’whiners and moaners. :-)

So wait...Does that mean he reads us???


8 posted on 03/16/2012 7:11:24 AM PDT by Mountain Mary ("This is OUR country and WE will decide"... Mark Levin)
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To: astratt7
Austin Texas is a liberal town but the rest of Texas is not.

Wish I could say that, but Dallas is every bit as liberal as Austin.

9 posted on 03/16/2012 7:15:44 AM PDT by dfwgator (Don't wake up in a roadside ditch. Get rid of Romney.)
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To: astratt7

Austin Texas is a liberal town but the rest of Texas is not.


Texas as a whole isn’t liberal but with the influx of people coming across the Rio Grande, Red and Sabine rivers in a few years things may change drastically.


10 posted on 03/16/2012 7:29:35 AM PDT by deport (..............God Bless Texas............)
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To: dfwgator
Don't forget Houston. My poor sister, who lives in a nice northside neighborhood, is somehow stuck in the district represented by this:

11 posted on 03/16/2012 7:30:43 AM PDT by Vigilanteman (Obama: Fake black man. Fake Messiah. Fake American. How many fakes can you fit in one Zer0?)
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To: dfwgator

Wish I could say that, but Dallas is every bit as liberal as Austin.


Yep a lot of the major population centers have democrats leading the city or county gov’t offices.


12 posted on 03/16/2012 7:32:41 AM PDT by deport (..............God Bless Texas............)
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To: Vigilanteman

Don’t forget Houston. My poor sister, who lives in a nice northside neighborhood, is somehow stuck in the district represented by this:


Gerrymandering at its worst, imo.


13 posted on 03/16/2012 7:34:37 AM PDT by deport (..............God Bless Texas............)
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To: astratt7
Don't totally rule out Austin....there is a remnant in Austin as well :)
14 posted on 03/16/2012 7:34:53 AM PDT by Guenevere (....Whom God calls,... He equips......Press On Santorum!)
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To: Mountain Mary

I agree it’ll come through for Santorum. I’m talking about the spectre of Romney as the nominee. I lived in TX for four years back in the 1980s and loved it.


15 posted on 03/16/2012 7:52:53 AM PDT by ScottinVA (A single drop of American blood for muslims is one drop too many!)
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To: Vigilanteman

The difference?

Easy. The rocks, soap and hammers are useful.


16 posted on 03/16/2012 7:54:03 AM PDT by ScottinVA (A single drop of American blood for muslims is one drop too many!)
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To: Cincinatus' Wife

Wife and I will be voting Newt when Tx finally rolls around. Everybody that I have spoken with in our neighborhood is a Newt supporter, with a lone Obamacrat in the mix.


17 posted on 03/16/2012 8:13:00 AM PDT by rightly_dividing ("You can not put a gun rack in a Volt")
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To: Da Coyote

That’s very clever. :-)


18 posted on 03/16/2012 9:11:19 AM PDT by Pining_4_TX ( The state is the great fiction by which everybody seeks to live at the expense of everybody else. ~)
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To: astratt7

“I live in Texas, and trust me....this state is NOT blue! ... Austin Texas is a liberal town but the rest of Texas is not.”

Maybe not -right now-, but the demographics of Texas are changing, and they are changing RAPIDLY.

The Texas of 2032 is not going to be the Texas you live in today. Even in the next ten years, the “political shift” may become more obvious.

Look at the Hispanic birthrates vis-a-vis non-Hispanic Euro birthrates. Towards which party are these “future Texans” (many of whom are the children of illegals) lean?

Demographics is destiny. Pure math, plain and simple. It is what it is. Like Dr. McCoy once said to Mr. Spock, “it’s a MACHINE, Spock! You can’t argue with a machine!”


19 posted on 03/16/2012 10:31:54 AM PDT by Road Glide
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To: Road Glide

Is TX Mormon friendly? There is quite a bit of Mormonism in TX.


20 posted on 03/16/2012 10:44:02 AM PDT by Theodore R. (Mathematically, it's all over, says Mittens. I'm pretty sure the people will again let us down.)
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To: dfwgator

Austin, Dallas, and Houston inner-city are all liberal, but they have conservative suburbs in each. El Paso, I don’t think, even has suburbs period, and is Democrat. Fort Worth is now more Republican than Dallas. Even Waco is less Democrat than in the past.


21 posted on 03/16/2012 11:25:27 AM PDT by Theodore R. (Mathematically, it's all over, says Mittens. I'm pretty sure the people will again let us down.)
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To: astratt7
I live in Texas, and trust me....this state is NOT blue!

It will be within our lifetime, probably before 2020. Texas is a minority-majority state - whites are already at or below 45% of the state and have been for a few years, Hispanics will soon be passing them up, and Democrats and RINOs from California and New England have been moving into the state in large numbers for quite a while. If the GOP doesn't make serious inroads on the Hispanic vote, Texas' time as a Republican state will have barely lasted three decades.

Austin Texas is a liberal town but the rest of Texas is not.

Keep telling yourself that, and pretend that Dallas didn't elect an openly lesbian sheriff and Houston didn't elect an openly lesbian mayor, and pretend that the four largest cities and the border region didn't go for Obama in 2008. While you're at it, pretend that McCain/Palin won Texas by 9 million votes instead of 900,000. If you pretend hard enough, you might just convince yourself.

You need to travel outside of the four largest cities to find large conservative areas, and you need to stay away from the border counties.
22 posted on 03/16/2012 5:08:15 PM PDT by af_vet_rr
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