Skip to comments.Japan threatens to engage missile defense; shoot down N. Korean missile in Mid-April
Posted on 03/16/2012 10:25:50 PM PDT by AmericanInTokyo
Rush-- w/out translation.
Japan is threatening North Korea with deploying and activating its own Missile Defense (MD) system, and shooting down the North Korean ICBM test launched scheduled from between 12 April and 16 April, a move stunningly announced by Pyongyang news sources yesterday and creating considerable tension in Northeast Asia suddenly.
No time to do an English translation now but am linking the breaking Japan story in Japanese. Will synopsize later, but wanted to get the thread and linked article up ASAP.
a) North Korean intent to launch an intercontinential missile of this sort (though the North claims it will be an orbital satellite which is a lie) is a direct violation of the UN Security Council agreements, is a threat to Japan, and they will take now consider appropriate countermeasures against the DPRK and Kim Jong Un.
Further reports today Japanese Government convening strategy sessions and considering placement of PAC-III batteries within range of this southward-trajectory intended Taepodong 3 ICBM, to deal with this threat. Coordination no doubt is also taking place with US Forces Japan over this situation. Will attempt to get more.
The US plans to mothball some AEGIS Cruisers. Maybe we should just offer them to Japan..somebody who has the balls to use them.
PATRIOT PAC-3s are completely incapable of engaging an ICBM; they’d only be effective against a short to medium range missile, and in terminal defense (if the missile was fired at the specific site of the missile in Japan).
Aegis BMD is incapable of boost phase defense against an ICBM and again would only be effective against a missile that was at least approaching Japan so this is all a Japanese bluff, really, though I guess the story if fragmentary.
If it is in fact an orbital launch, or a longe range ICBM test, there’s nothing the Japanese can intercept the missile with.
Thank you. Keep us posted, AIT
Just to elaborate if it is an orbital launch or ICBM test, EVEN if the trajectory passes over Japan, the Japanese cannot intercept it.
Yeah, let's hold off on taking any of this as gospel truth just yet.
Okay...anything in the AO that CAN shoot it down?
I have a gut feeling the heads of both countries already are aware of that sad fact.
That said, the Japanese are very good at improving on existing tech with indigenous ideas, as they have done with the F-15. I will be quite interested in what they might do to pee of the Norks.....................
I am not too sure on that. We know what we have sold to Japan, but we don’t know what kind of improvements Japan has made to the stuff we have sold them, or all about the goodies they have worked up on their own.
Missile defense is a very serious Japanese defense bugaboo. They can also be very good at keeping secrets when they want to be.
Obama will say to Japan. “Just wait until after the election”.
It is in their interest to not advertise, but I strongly suspect the Japanese are a lot further along than just using what we sold them and not tweaking things. They are far too good to leave things alone.
Shit is about to hit the fan with China, Iran, north Korea, and Syria!!! Time to reinstate the draft. Welcome tothe the party bi#$hes!! Time to send your sons to combat something the rest of us have been enduring for the last 21eleven years. When shit hits the fan we will see who the real loyal Americans are. It will no longer be somebody else’s son or daughter serving if war with Korea/China breaks out.
They have there own.
Di not look like something to be trifled with.
That said, it was weird seeing the Japanese flag slowly cruising into Pearl, and on another day, watching a Japanese submarine come in the same way.
which should make you feel better.
It will also help light the path back to your home under the bridge.
Woah... can they DO that Constitutionally? Did Japan change their laws... because I thought they could not have an offensive military, not that I am complaining mind you. I am merely surprised.
That said, it is still a good idea to deploy and make ready the missile defense assets. This is after all, NK rocket technology. There is a significant probability of a malfunction and the vehicle and payload (whatever it is) could fall way short. Being able to engage it and at least detonate/destroy the volatiles/fuel on board could reduce the risk to anyone under its footprint. Besides, even if they don't engage it, just having the sensors (radars, IR?) and crews on station and tracking it will provide valuable intel and training.
The best defense is a good offense.
There is plenty of things that 0bama could do to smooth things out, and to be statesmanlike... especially in this election year.
For example, 0bama could send a few taxpayer billion$ to North Korea AND Japan, so that Japan could feel better when Norkea launches...
Or, in a more strategic move, 0bama could unilaterally decomission more US Nukes, so that the Norks don't feel so threatened, when they do this launch "test".
If it's really Japan's feeling of insecurity at stake here, 0bama could, say, send BOTH Hillary! AND Halfbright, out of retirement of course, over to monitor the launch...
There is LOTS 0bomba could do here to improve the situation and make everybody feel much better!
They revised defense protocols to Constitutionally allow for such an attack. I agree with many here that Japan has developed stuff that is not in the public eye and they will not hesitate to use, and then feign ignorance over the whole thing.
I stand corrected!
The real question is, how good is NK radar and telemetry? If the trajectory is low enough that a Japanese Aegis BMD DDG could engage it...and they did...who would know? The crew of the Destroyer, maybe the US Navy and Air Force who would also be watching. But if everyone agreed to keep their mouth shut about the um “unannounced operational readiness test/training event...” The NKs would simply think they’d had another malfunction. ;-) Hey, target missiles and range time are expensive. If the NKs are going to provide one, why not? I’m sure the Japanese sailors would be happy to scrub the decks and erase any missile exhaust soot before returning to port. “Who, me? I didn’t see nuthin’!”
it would be real difficult to miss two missile contrails, what do you think this is? The coast of California?
a nervous LOL
Yep, if the Russians, Chinese, North Vietnamese or North Koreans couldn’t shoot down a fast, high-flying plane (SR-71 and other variants) then an ICBM is out of reach, at least for now.
Once again, it is the newbie calling for the draft. Say hello to Mrs Rangel for us all.
President Reagan may have some cards left to play yet? President Reagan probably left us a full deck. At least President Reagan loved this nation and wanted this nation to survive, unlike the present zer0. There are many like President Reagan at this site and throughout the nation. Betting our nation has a full deck. Thank you President Reagan. Miss him.
If the missile was fired at Alaska, the GBIs based in silos there would have a shot at it (as it approached Alaska, not over Japan) The GBI has barely been tested under real-life conditions, but it is physically capable of the interception.
The issue isn't mostly the range of the trajectory, it's the acceleration and geometry of interception in boost or early mid-course. You need a truly enormous, very fast,very expensive missile - which the long-canceled Kinetic Energy Interceptor was.
The Aegis SM-3 Block II which has an IOC of 2018 has a shot at ICBMs in early midcourse. It will be the first missile so big it completely fills a strike-length VLS cell top to bottom, side to side - SM-3 can't get bigger after that without new ships/new VLS.
So until 2018 the Japanese can't do jack squat about any ICBMs flying over Japan.
The Japanese PAC-3s already exist so it isn't a big deal to "deploy" them. And any statements about them probably refer to intercepting a failed ICBM (which is a high probability) that happens to fall towards Japan.
All of this is basic physics known to all/open-source/unclassified, btw.
Obama can be 100% relied upon to only do what most advantages himself personally as well as his fellow travelers. That usually means betraying the friends of the US and helping its enemies.
Good shooting !
An SM-3 took out a satellite in orbit in Burnt Frost in 2008, don’t forget.
Seems to me that a shoot down pretty much puts the last nail in the coffin of North Korea.
OTOH, a failed attempt at a shoot down would embolden NK & other regimes.
AIT, by this time, I am sure the Japanese and Korean leaders have figured out just exactly how useless Obama is.
I personally do not think the US/Japan Security Treaty would last another four years of Obama. My gut feeling is that they are only holding on to it now because they’re praying with their most private and desperate hopes that he is defeated in November.
If he wins, or if he remains in office by other means, the Japanese will start thinking pragmatically about coming to an understanding with China.
China could dangle some considerably tasty bait to lure the Japanese out of the American alliance. Would they be willing to? Would the Japanese go for it? Ask me again in November.
Sounds like a TOO (Target of Opportunity). Great chance to get some real world testing done, cheap.
Ballistic missiles actually reach much higher altitudes at apogee than the satellite that was shot down.
And satellites have more predictable trajectories.
A couple of things are worth noting here with respect to the Japanese reports of earlier today, now that I have read them more in full. They state that if the DPRK ICBM launch comes anywhere “near threatening Japanese territory”, or “towards Japanse territory”, then they will consider shooting it down in an act of self defense for Japan, which they are fully authorized to do now under Japan Defense Ministry rules of engagement guidelines which are in place and are Constitutional (under the coverage of “act of self defense”), i.e. they do not conflict with General MacArthur’s “Article 9”. Tokyo made such statements in April of 2009 when the North also launched a Taepodong 2 over Japan. They are particularly looking for any missile launched “at” or “toward” Japanese terittory. Any missile or part of same which came near Japan and was within striking distance either by the PAC-3 or the AEGIS destroyers, could theoretically be taken down. The discussions are starting internally, by the Ministry of Defense as well as the Foreign Ministry, in advance of this possible launch, and so that there are no surpises. Where and when to deploy such systems is not yet decided. Of course considering on the altitude and speech of an ascending missile, hitting it with commonly known Japanese arsenal would be difficult, I would imagine that even if successful, certainly US military and Japanese Self Defense would keep it hushed up, but Chinese naval forces in the Pacific Ocean operating in the area of Ryukyu Islands or elsewhere might pick up such an action and pass it to the North Koreans. North Korean direct intelligence in that region of the Pacific is extremely limited and so would be their grasp of the details of one of there missiles being met by MD system. It is obviously talk to put additional pressure on the North Koreans, but there was a similiar case two years ago, where Obama stated he would NOT instruct US military to shoot down such a missile, and from that point on, I feel the Japanese defense establishment knows they are on their own vs North Korea and that the long alliance with the US is very shaky under this Obama individual. Yes, many, many people in the know and in senior positions strongly hope for a defeat of Obama in November and complete reshuffling and cleaning out of the US DOD, State Department, intelligence and other agencies, with the curren office holders and policy makers in DC, probably not a few of them actual national security risks working behind closed, security cleared limited access areas.
Please note my most recent comments. It also appears, at least the North says, they are going to open this mid April “satellite” (BS, it is an ICBM test) launch up to international observers and some press. One wonders if it is just a marketing show for Iranian customers. We shall see. At any rate, one wonders if an AEGIS in international waters off the coast of North Korea (well off the coast, in the Western side in the Yellow sea), could hit this missile up on ascent from Pyongan Region, or if distance from AEGIS to missile would be problematic, and if that in and of itself would be viewed by North Korea as an act of war upon the DPRK.
Hopefully you can join us over here! If not too busy.
I think it would be very interesting if the missile blew up on the launch pad.
I disagree- I think that obama CAN be relied on, 100%, to do whatever is in the WORST interests of the USA and it's allies. He is an enemy of the Constitution of the US, and it's citizenry.