Skip to comments.FWIW The Blogging Caesar at Election Projections has GOP gaining +6 in U S Senate
Posted on 03/17/2012 1:15:14 AM PDT by SMGFan
Yes this is his election projection based on various sources. But 52 seats looks great. He added Missouri and Florida to GOP gain side.
That would be great! I’ve been trying to figure in my head where things might shake out and I keep coming up with between 2 and 5 pickups and 0 to 2 losses for the GOP in November.
I figured the most likely potential gains to be in Missouri, Montana, Nebraska and North Dakota, with a good shot in Virginia and a decent shot for Linda Lingle to take the seat in Hawaii.
I figured the only real potential for losses as Maine and possibly Scott Brown in Mass., though I believe he’ll pull it out against Warren by November.
Just my amateur opinion, of course. Which may be worth just as much as you are paying for it. :-)
In what universe does 47 + 6 = 52?
We need 60 to change America back and drag it from the edge of destruction... 60 solid Conservatives. We face horrible odds and a worse future.
Youare correct, he has Maine as an Independent gain (GOP loss)and yet he has Independents as projected in 2013 as 1 rather than still two (CT & VT to VT & ME), yes his numbers are in error. So GOP +5 not +6
This young lad from Ohio Mandel is impressive as all get up and once the word gets out he could have "money-bombs" that make Scott Brown's look like pocket change.
The other one in Michigan.
Stabenow is ripe for the taking. It is up to the State EGOP ( who I can't stand ) to get their act together and a candidate to get it's act together and rise like cream and then defeat her in November at the polls.
The State went very red in 2010. I think the mood is still their, they just have to capitalize on it...
Senate projection ping.
If things go just a shade better, it is easy to see 10 - 12 pubbie net pickups, and with a real sweep, the pubbies could get a filibuster proof senate.
Unlikely but not impossible.
For example, the author has PA in a strong demonRAT hold position and I know that bobcasey is very weak and will get no help from obama's coattails, because I believe that obama will get skunked in PA.
The demonRATS have awoken the "sleeping giant" and there will be much weeping and gnashing of teeth.
The Presidential projections: Obama=285 --- Romney=253....
So the GOP is going to win the Senate and lose the Presidency?
Oh be sure it is too early, we must think positively. . Pres. Obama can be voted out of office.
Be sure to read about the blogger. :)
Thank you for the ping randita!
FWIW, I see Brown winning by 6+% here in MA.
Hi, what do the voters like about Brown, or is it why do they disapprove of Warren? Why cannot BHO drag her in? Could a candidate Romney win as well?
Warren is even more unlikeable than Brown's previous opponent, Marcia Coakley. Brown is he lesser of two evils. Also, Joe Kennedy the XXXVIII is running for the US House this year; he'd have 3 terms under his belt when he challenges Brown in 2018. Remember, it's the “Kennedy Seat”.
“Why cannot BHO drag her in?”
There are plenty of women US Senators, but only one first (half) black POTUS,
“Could a candidate Romney win as well?”
No way Romney (or any GOP) carries MA in November. Ronald Reagan was the last GOP to win MA (1984) and he'll remain the last to win MA for another 28+ years. This is the problem when you have too many people that vote for a living.
This is good news. It’s important to note that this poll is a snapshot and a lot can change in a short time.
“I figured the most likely potential gains to be in Missouri, Montana, Nebraska and North Dakota, with a good shot in Virginia and a decent shot for Linda Lingle to take the seat in Hawaii.”
That’s a good analysis. We also have good shots in Florida, New Mexico, and Wisconsubm and have a decent chance in Ohio. We have outside chances in Connecticut and New Jersey.
“I figured the only real potential for losses as Maine and possibly Scott Brown in Mass., though I believe hell pull it out against Warren by November.”
True. We may lose a seat in Nevada due to demographic changes in Las Vegas and there’s an outside chance of losing in Arizona.
Also, I nominate the term “mind raped” (and its variants, including “Star Trek Mind Rape” for those uber-permanent brain damaging experiences) for addition into the FR lexicon. Thank you to fieldmarshaldj for bringing the scourge of mind rape to the conscienceness of FR.
Personally, I'm waiting for the opportunity to combine “Earth Pimps” and “mind raped” in the same ping.
Last poll I saw had Lingle in bad shape.
Maine is a more likely than not lost to defacto democrat King
Nevada will be close but our guy should pull it out. Slight GOP edge to tossup.
It’s MA so Brown could still lose but a this point it’s probably more likely he’ll win by 10 points than lose. He’s got that “popular NE RINO” thing going on and Warren is just awful. We’re lucky they’re going with such a lousy candidate. They need to think like people instead of elitist morons who would be attracted to a candidate like Warren.
Those are the only 3 Republican seats in danger
If we lose Maine that’s 46 so we need 5 to get to 51
ND and NE are sure gains. MT should be a win. So should WI.
MO and and FL as well, the incumbent rats are not popular. That’s 52 and in line with this blog’s projection.
VA is more of a question mark, that’s the marquee race of the night. It will probably be very close.
Good chance in New Mexico, no more than a slight rat edge.
Ohio is a good chance. Michigan a decent chance too.
West VA, Hawaii and a few others are in the outside chance category.