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Romney and Santorum would split vote if Gingrich exited race [What if Rick exited and Newt stayed?]
Pocono Record - PA ^ | March 17, 2012

Posted on 03/17/2012 6:47:57 AM PDT by Cincinatus' Wife

WASHINGTON -- Mitt Romney would stand to benefit just as much as Rick Santorum if Newt Gingrich exited the presidential race, according to a new poll released Friday.

The Gallup poll defied conventional wisdom by suggesting Romney would peel off just as many Gingrich supporters as Santorum would. Forty percent of Gingrich supporters in Gallup's daily tracking poll said Romney was their second choice while 39 percent said they would migrate to Santorum.

"If two candidates for a presidential nomination compete in the same ideological space, it would make sense that if one dropped out that the other would benefit," Gallup's Jeffrey Jones wrote in analysis accompanying the poll. "But that does not appear to be the case for the 2012 Republican nomination."

Jones added that for Santorum to overtake Romney, "it may not be as simple as picking up additional support from Gingrich voters should the former speaker of the House drop out." Rather, "Santorum would also likely need to cut into Romney's current base of support to gain ground on the frontrunner."

Rick Santorum has battled Gingrich through most of the primary cycle as the two contenders have tried to establish themselves as the chief alternative to Romney. However, since winning the South Carolina primary on Jan. 21, Gingrich has won just one other state -- his native Georgia.

Meanwhile, Rick Santorum has shown strength in several southern and midwestern states, having won Iowa, Tennessee, Oklahoma, Alabama, Mississippi, Colorado, Minnesota, Kansas, North Dakota and the non-binding Missouri primary, putting pressure on Gingrich to pack his bags and allow Santorum to go head-to-head with Romney.

While the former Pennsylvania has not explicitly called on Gingrich to exit the race, he has publicly admitted that he could benefit from his rival's departure.

But after the Mississippi and Alabama primaries, Gingrich argued his continued presence was damaging to Romney, forcing him to engage in a two-front war on the airwaves against his rivals.

Gingrich also dismissed suggestions that by staying in the race he was hurting Santorum, saying the former Pennsylvania senator had essentially gone one-on-one with Romney in Ohio and Michigan and lost.

Santorum and Romney are set to do battle in Illinois Tuesday, the next big contest to vote following the Missouri caucuses and Puerto Rican primary over the weekend.

The latest poll in Illinois by FOX Chicago News showed Romney leading Santorum 37 percent to 31 percent in the state. Gingrich had 14 percent while eight percent supported Texas Rep. Ron Paul.


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Front Page News; Government; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: conservatism; delegates; gingrich2012; gopprimary; holiestvsrichest; ideasvsideology; identitypolitics; kenyanbornmuzzie; mittromney; newt4teaparty; newtgingrich; ricksantorum; santorumvsteaparty; teaprtyisscrewed
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To: katiedidit1

Santos supporters are fanatics and cannot deal with facts, they would drink the jimmie jones kool-aid in a heartbeat..it is too bad and sick but true


101 posted on 03/17/2012 5:25:12 PM PDT by Fred (http://whenmittromneycametotown.com)
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To: Fred
No I would bet they would just stay home if newt was the only vote, just like McCain. That is why he has 40% negatives.
102 posted on 03/17/2012 5:28:57 PM PDT by org.whodat
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To: Fred
Fred:) it is nice that you and I are on the same side:) have noticed it is okay to attack Calista but hands off Karen..okay to bash Newt but don't dare talk about Santorum backing pro choice folks more than once and including judges.
Now, here is America facing a tremendous financial crisis and we are talking about porn and prophylactics...
103 posted on 03/17/2012 5:29:44 PM PDT by katiedidit1 ("This is one race of people for whom psychoanalysis is of no use whatsoever." the Irish)
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To: Fred

I’ve been told all day that I am amoral because I don’t support the regulation of the internet. Someone even said some Freepers support kiddie porn. Just ridiculous. Think I’ll go back to just lurking.


104 posted on 03/17/2012 5:32:30 PM PDT by trappedincanuckistan (livefreeordietryin)
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To: georgiagirl_pam

I am one who thinks Obama will stomp Santorum into the ground but I am not so sure Romney will be able to beat Obama either. We are in trouble so I say Go Newt and I hope I have the chance to vote for him.


105 posted on 03/17/2012 5:38:47 PM PDT by kalee (The offenses we give, we write in the dust; Those we take, we engrave in marble. J Huett 1658)
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To: katiedidit1

“Vesty” - I like that

Testy Vesty


106 posted on 03/17/2012 5:39:48 PM PDT by b9 (Newt is substance. The others are talking points.)
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To: b9

LOL! too bad testy didnt keep on his vesty in the beach/bathing suit shot. The ONLY time I would tell him to put the vest BACK on!


107 posted on 03/17/2012 5:48:15 PM PDT by katiedidit1 ("This is one race of people for whom psychoanalysis is of no use whatsoever." the Irish)
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To: trappedincanuckistan
I don’t support the regulation of the internet.

So, you'd do away with obscenity laws prohibiting child porn on the internet? Or do you agree there has to be some regulation of it?

108 posted on 03/17/2012 6:00:02 PM PDT by Kazan (Mitt Romney: The greater of two evils)
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To: sodpoodle

True that...


109 posted on 03/17/2012 6:08:03 PM PDT by ripnbang ("An armed man is a citizen, an unarmed man a subject")
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To: sodpoodle

True that...


110 posted on 03/17/2012 6:08:34 PM PDT by ripnbang ("An armed man is a citizen, an unarmed man a subject")
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To: Kazan

I support the prosecution of criminal activity. Child porn is criminal. It doesn’t fall under obscenity laws. I’m sure you already knew that though.


111 posted on 03/17/2012 6:08:44 PM PDT by trappedincanuckistan (livefreeordietryin)
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To: sillsfan; Mariner; C. Edmund Wright; napscoordinator; AmericanInTokyo; cripplecreek; Antoninus; ...
24 posted on Saturday, March 17, 2012 9:28:33 AM by sillsfan: “If the number one objective is to make sure Romney doesn’t become the nominee, why then do Santorum supporters continue to insist that Newt drop out? Let them fight it out at the convention. Or is that what Santorum is afraid of, that his support isn’t really that deep and he’ll loose there.”

Not all Santorum supporters are urging Gingrich to drop out.

The “second choice” issue has been my concern for a long time and this poll verifies my fears. CharlesWayneCT has said similar things in the past and seems to concur in his analysis of New York Times reviews of current campaign data.

Here's my view: It's not so much that Santorum’s support isn't that deep, but rather than there are numerous “values voters” who do not realize just how bad Mitt Romney's positions have been on abortion, gay marriage, etc., and are objecting to Gingrich's past without realizing what they're getting in the bargain from the “family values” Romney. A lot of people simply cannot conceive that there is such a thing as a pro-choice and pro-gay-marriage Mormon, and the only way to convince them is to show them Romney's actual words on video in the governor's race.

Most FReepers understand how bad Romney is. Many in the Republican electorate do not.

At this point, based on current poll data, I think the only way to avoid Romney winning is for the three-way race to continue with a gentleman's agreement between Gingrich and Santorum 1) to focus on attacking Romney and 2) to avoid states and congressional districts where the other candidate has a better shot of beating Romney in winner-take-all races.

That could change, but right now it looks like the only path to defeating Romney.

112 posted on 03/17/2012 7:29:23 PM PDT by darrellmaurina
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To: trappedincanuckistan
I support the prosecution of criminal activity.

Obscenity is illegal and all Santorum is doing is suggesting those engaged in such criminal activity be prosecuted.

113 posted on 03/17/2012 7:48:34 PM PDT by Kazan (Mitt Romney: The greater of two evils)
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To: Kazan

Child porn involves the forcible exploitation of a child. The child is the victim. Who is the victim with respect to hardcore pornography? The viewer? They consented. The participants? They consented. If you don’t like it don’t watch it. Don’t get the government involved! It would just be a matter of time before the government deemed political speech “obscene” or “hateful”, and sites like this would disappear from the landscape.


114 posted on 03/17/2012 8:07:11 PM PDT by trappedincanuckistan (livefreeordietryin)
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To: Cincinatus' Wife

We’re running out of states and Newt has won Georgia, and one state that borders Georgia. The only shot Newt has at this point is if both Santorum and Romney drop out of the race. The Newt supporters that act like Gingrich is anything but a spoiler at this point are almost comical.


115 posted on 03/17/2012 10:20:23 PM PDT by NavVet ("You Lie!")
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To: lexington minuteman 1775

That strategy works only in states with proportional allocation of delegates. Majority of impending primaries are WTA-CD & WTA. Which simply means a simple plurality in a congressional district or state gives you ALL delegates in that district/state.


116 posted on 03/17/2012 11:21:19 PM PDT by entropy12 (Republicans do not hate, that is a monopoly of democrats.)
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To: PSYCHO-FREEP

If Mitt does get the nomination, conservatives need to unite behind a third party with the express intent of denying him the presidency. We simply must convince the GOP hierarchy that it cannot continue to get away with forcing vermin like Dole, McStain and Romney down our throats.

If we don’t do that we will NEVER get a conservative president.

Hank


117 posted on 03/18/2012 12:17:51 AM PDT by County Agent Hank Kimball (Screw it. Newt's the smartest candidate and the guy I want to see debating Obummer. Flame away.)
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To: PSYCHO-FREEP

If Mitt does get the nomination, conservatives need to unite behind a third party with the express intent of denying him the presidency. We simply must convince the GOP hierarchy that it cannot continue to get away with forcing vermin like Dole, McStain and Romney down our throats.

If we don’t do that we will NEVER get a conservative president.

Hank


118 posted on 03/18/2012 12:17:57 AM PDT by County Agent Hank Kimball (Screw it. Newt's the smartest candidate and the guy I want to see debating Obummer. Flame away.)
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To: County Agent Hank Kimball; PSYCHO-FREEP

We are discussing 3rd parties vs working within the party on another thread if you gentlemen would care to weigh in.

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2860523/posts


119 posted on 03/18/2012 12:20:44 AM PDT by trappedincanuckistan (livefreeordietryin)
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To: cripplecreek
Never mind Newt’s continued support of ethanol subsidies, incentives for green energy, and promises of whole new federal environmental agencies.

Newt is for an energy independent U.S., rolled back regulations and free market ideas. He wants the EPA yanked and common sense conservation in it's place.

...Just looking at the history of the race so far makes it clear to any realistic person.....

Your history has huge holes, like the barrage of Romney ads in Iowa and Florida to be-head Newt's campaign surges.

120 posted on 03/18/2012 1:35:04 AM PDT by Cincinatus' Wife
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To: svcw
All the polls show that Gingrich’s supports are divided 40% each for Snatorum and Romney, if they are true if Gingrich leaves Romney takes it. I haven’t seen any about Santorum leaving, my guess would be the same.

Would you give me the link to that polling info?

121 posted on 03/18/2012 1:37:33 AM PDT by Cincinatus' Wife
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To: svcw
...I haven’t seen any about Santorum leaving,...

Oops! That is the info I want (I have the other). I don't think anyone has asked about Santorum's departure and it's effect on the race.

I believe a much larger number would swing to Newt over Rick.

122 posted on 03/18/2012 1:40:18 AM PDT by Cincinatus' Wife
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To: txrangerette
.....I’m staying on point that there are obviously people who think the WORST choice is Santorum, who strongly support Newt. There are others who think Santorum is less bad than Romney, who strongly support Newt. There is a SPLIT.........

Yes!

123 posted on 03/18/2012 1:52:07 AM PDT by Cincinatus' Wife
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To: Cincinatus' Wife

Here is one in the HuffPo that references both the Gallup and Fox News polls.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/03/16/newt-gingrich-voters-polls-mitt-romney-rick-santorum_n_1354509.html


124 posted on 03/18/2012 3:56:36 AM PDT by svcw (CLEAN WATER & Education http://www.longlostsis.com/PI/MayanHelp2012.html)
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