Skip to comments.Romney and Santorum would split vote if Gingrich exited race [What if Rick exited and Newt stayed?]
Posted on 03/17/2012 6:47:57 AM PDT by Cincinatus' Wife
WASHINGTON -- Mitt Romney would stand to benefit just as much as Rick Santorum if Newt Gingrich exited the presidential race, according to a new poll released Friday.
The Gallup poll defied conventional wisdom by suggesting Romney would peel off just as many Gingrich supporters as Santorum would. Forty percent of Gingrich supporters in Gallup's daily tracking poll said Romney was their second choice while 39 percent said they would migrate to Santorum.
"If two candidates for a presidential nomination compete in the same ideological space, it would make sense that if one dropped out that the other would benefit," Gallup's Jeffrey Jones wrote in analysis accompanying the poll. "But that does not appear to be the case for the 2012 Republican nomination."
Jones added that for Santorum to overtake Romney, "it may not be as simple as picking up additional support from Gingrich voters should the former speaker of the House drop out." Rather, "Santorum would also likely need to cut into Romney's current base of support to gain ground on the frontrunner."
Rick Santorum has battled Gingrich through most of the primary cycle as the two contenders have tried to establish themselves as the chief alternative to Romney. However, since winning the South Carolina primary on Jan. 21, Gingrich has won just one other state -- his native Georgia.
Meanwhile, Rick Santorum has shown strength in several southern and midwestern states, having won Iowa, Tennessee, Oklahoma, Alabama, Mississippi, Colorado, Minnesota, Kansas, North Dakota and the non-binding Missouri primary, putting pressure on Gingrich to pack his bags and allow Santorum to go head-to-head with Romney.
While the former Pennsylvania has not explicitly called on Gingrich to exit the race, he has publicly admitted that he could benefit from his rival's departure.
But after the Mississippi and Alabama primaries, Gingrich argued his continued presence was damaging to Romney, forcing him to engage in a two-front war on the airwaves against his rivals.
Gingrich also dismissed suggestions that by staying in the race he was hurting Santorum, saying the former Pennsylvania senator had essentially gone one-on-one with Romney in Ohio and Michigan and lost.
Santorum and Romney are set to do battle in Illinois Tuesday, the next big contest to vote following the Missouri caucuses and Puerto Rican primary over the weekend.
The latest poll in Illinois by FOX Chicago News showed Romney leading Santorum 37 percent to 31 percent in the state. Gingrich had 14 percent while eight percent supported Texas Rep. Ron Paul.
I think your assessment of the three groups of voters is pretty good. I might add some average IQ variances as well.....
Thank you, Strategerist.
Your comment is based on the real world, and the world at large, not a dream world or a microcosm (here on FR) of the whole.
Gingrich appeals to a lot of people who at the same time feel that Santorum is NOT, repeat NOT, the answer. They might not care for Romney, for a host of reasons we know so well, but if FORCED to choose between staying home, doing a write in which means nothing, leaving their presidential line blank, voting for Santorum or voting for Romney, about half of them will choose Romney.
I fully understand those people. In spirit I’m right there with them about Santorum.
But unlike them, feel so repulsed by Romney that voting for him is beyond me.
All the polls show that Gingrich’s supports are divided 40% each for Snatorum and Romney, if they are true if Gingrich leaves Romney takes it.
I haven’t seen any about Santorum leaving, my guess would be the same.
I don’t understand Santorum supporters’ strategy/rationale.
By all accounts, Newt dropping out does NOT ensure Santorum can garner enough delegates to win the nomination.
However, Newt dropping out DOES make it more possible for Romney to get enough delegates.
If the number one objective is to make sure Romney doesn’t become the nominee, why then do Santorum supporters continue to insist that Newt drop out?
Let them fight it out at the convention. Or is that what Santorum is afraid of, that his support isn’t really that deep and he’ll loose there.
The majority of Southern states have had their primaries and the remaining few are proportional states. The south is Newt’s strength and even there he has placed first in only 2 states. He is a perennial third outside the south. No way Santorum is going to drop out for Newt. The best Newt can hope for is that he will siphon enough delegates as a third choice that Romney will not reach the magic delegate number.
And when faced with only big government types, they will still choose based on one criteria, which is 'who will leave me alone'.
To small-government types, when faced with unpalatable statist choices, tend to find the following true:
Of all tyrannies, a tyranny sincerely exercised for the good of its victims may be the most oppressive. It would be better to live under robber barons than under omnipotent moral busybodies. The robber barons cruelty may sometimes sleep, his cupidity may at some point be satiated; but those who torment us for our own good will torment us without end for they do so with the approval of their own conscience. They may be more likely to go to Heaven yet at the same time likelier to make a Hell of earth. This very kindness stings with intolerable insult. To be cured against ones will and cured of states which we may not regard as disease is to be put on a level of those who have not yet reached the age of reason or those who never will; to be classed with infants, imbeciles, and domestic animals.
- C.S. Lewis
Which means Romney over Santorum.
(G-d, defending Romney... Barf! Thanks Santorum, for positioning yourself farther away from individual liberty than Romney. What a rotten b@$!@rd for doing so.)
I think you are exactly correct with that, but if you want the federal government in your house, in your computer, in your bedroom, and in your toilet, then the Ayatollah Santorum is your federal regulations boy.
It really is too bad that most voters don’t read FR or anything else for a full discussion of the candidates.
This is the reason we have the current POTUS - force-fed fantasy from the candidate and propaganda puffery by the press and pundits.
It has always taken a kick in the head crisis to awaken Americans to reality and revival. (WWI & WWII & the Depression, Cold War etc.,) We regularly go soft and stupid - just because we can.
I think it boils down to my post #26.
“And youre projecting FR on to the Republican electorate.”
That’s a common mistake. It reminds me of a very wealthy acquaintance of mine who hangs out mostly with similarly wealthy people. He thinks middle class households earn about $150K a year.
What if Romney exited? Just asking....
I would strongly urge NOT to take a sitting conservative senator. We need every conservative we can muster in the senate. Take a governor or Congressman.
Don’t really care anymore who supports whom and for what reason. The silliness that this once bastion of intelligence site has become is disturbing. As if one argument or another is going to squash the “opposition” and elevate one’s guy to victory.
I agree with the assessment that there are Romneybots here who are trying to muddy the waters.
The time spent arguing over why we despise one candidate more and for what reasons..is self defeating...and really uninteresting...
With the exception of Mittens, of course.
Just like repetitive Hannity hammers his points, there are never too many arguments to convince gullible voters that a Romney nomination is NOT a certainty and can still be thwarted.
Our country is on the brink and we need to figure out what we can realistically do to help at this point.
I am actively working for my candidate in my state, whose primary is April 3.
Would love to know what some of the rest of us are doing for the Conservative cause and advancement of our liberties. Sitting in front of a computer and spewing anonymous, negative comments may make one feel powerful...but real power lies in taking action..and doing something!
I have decided to focus on Senate races nationally and local races in my state instead. If we can take the Senate, we will be contributing to the checks and balances system that may be our only hope of tempering an out of control radical POTUS.
Am with you on not voting for Rom. tx.
Can’t/won’t do it..matter of principle.
A Conservative Veep could help him win..but afterwards, what Veeps do you know of who had any influence after election day?
Mittens would throw them under his bus before the Inaugural ceremony was through.
I agree with you that to yank someone like Marco from the Senate could be a disaster.
Susanna Martinez of NM might be a good choice..
But I’m still not convinced that Mittens will be the nominee. No Romney/No Way.
Love the way Levin is stepping up and dissing him on his show.
Most folks understand the goal is to defeat Obama ...
And as most rational voters understand, Rick Santorum is NOT the man for that job.
The choice that remains is between Mitt and Newt. That’s just the way it is.
So please stop with this vapid, shallow mantra about “going with Willard”. It’s not nearly as intelligent as you think it is. In fact, it makes you sound foolish.
Wow, right out of the Alinsky rule book. Shameful.
Multiple other polls, prominently discussed here on this forum, have shown the opposite to be true - Santorum's vote splits between them while nearly all of Gingrich's vote goes to Santorum.
Multiple other actual polls have shown the opposite which were prominently discussed here - as I’m sure you are aware (I’m sure those polls had no credibility because they didn’t have the results you wanted to display, and now this one is because it shows what you want). Information showed that primaries Santorum narrowly won or narrowly lost he would have won handily over Romney without Gingrich in the race, with Romney winning handily with Santorum out of the race.