Skip to comments.Romney and Santorum would split vote if Gingrich exited race [What if Rick exited and Newt stayed?]
Posted on 03/17/2012 6:47:57 AM PDT by Cincinatus' Wife
WASHINGTON -- Mitt Romney would stand to benefit just as much as Rick Santorum if Newt Gingrich exited the presidential race, according to a new poll released Friday.
The Gallup poll defied conventional wisdom by suggesting Romney would peel off just as many Gingrich supporters as Santorum would. Forty percent of Gingrich supporters in Gallup's daily tracking poll said Romney was their second choice while 39 percent said they would migrate to Santorum.
"If two candidates for a presidential nomination compete in the same ideological space, it would make sense that if one dropped out that the other would benefit," Gallup's Jeffrey Jones wrote in analysis accompanying the poll. "But that does not appear to be the case for the 2012 Republican nomination."
Jones added that for Santorum to overtake Romney, "it may not be as simple as picking up additional support from Gingrich voters should the former speaker of the House drop out." Rather, "Santorum would also likely need to cut into Romney's current base of support to gain ground on the frontrunner."
Rick Santorum has battled Gingrich through most of the primary cycle as the two contenders have tried to establish themselves as the chief alternative to Romney. However, since winning the South Carolina primary on Jan. 21, Gingrich has won just one other state -- his native Georgia.
Meanwhile, Rick Santorum has shown strength in several southern and midwestern states, having won Iowa, Tennessee, Oklahoma, Alabama, Mississippi, Colorado, Minnesota, Kansas, North Dakota and the non-binding Missouri primary, putting pressure on Gingrich to pack his bags and allow Santorum to go head-to-head with Romney.
While the former Pennsylvania has not explicitly called on Gingrich to exit the race, he has publicly admitted that he could benefit from his rival's departure.
But after the Mississippi and Alabama primaries, Gingrich argued his continued presence was damaging to Romney, forcing him to engage in a two-front war on the airwaves against his rivals.
Gingrich also dismissed suggestions that by staying in the race he was hurting Santorum, saying the former Pennsylvania senator had essentially gone one-on-one with Romney in Ohio and Michigan and lost.
Santorum and Romney are set to do battle in Illinois Tuesday, the next big contest to vote following the Missouri caucuses and Puerto Rican primary over the weekend.
The latest poll in Illinois by FOX Chicago News showed Romney leading Santorum 37 percent to 31 percent in the state. Gingrich had 14 percent while eight percent supported Texas Rep. Ron Paul.
FWIW, I think a large majority would go to Newt.
Newt Gingrich is the conservative firewall.
I hope Newt, Rick , and even Ron Paul stay in to keep delegates away from Mittens. Let’em sort it out at the convention
"ATLANTA It wasn't so long ago that the Republican Party in Georgia was just an afterthought, and Democrats were in firm control of all the levers of state government. Back then, Newt Gingrich and other die-hard GOP stalwarts ventured across the state with the far-fetched message that Republicans could reverse the tide.
Now with commanding majorities in the Statehouse and control of all statewide offices, Gingrich is hoping his vision for how the GOP could overcome decades of Democratic dominance in Georgia will pay dividends. He sorely needs a victory when his home state votes Tuesday, along with a big chunk of its 76 delegates, to prove his stumbling presidential bid has staying power.
Many Republican figures in Georgia still credit him with championing conservative policies, outlining a framework for what a GOP majority in the state could accomplish and broadcasting talking points to a generation of up-and-coming conservative leaders. He's also applauded for lobbying conservative Democrats, like then-Rep. Nathan Deal, to switch parties.
"Everyone else was trying to lose as slowly as possible, and to die with dignity at the Alamo. He was talking confidently that the Republican majority in Georgia, in the South and nationally was right around the corner," said Ralph Reed, a veteran Georgia GOP operative who founded the national Faith and Freedom Coalition. "On the one hand it was crazy, but on the other it was just the most exciting thing you've ever heard.".....................In Ga., Gingrich helped build conservative base
Sorry, but it is not BS. The ultimate goal is to BEAT OBAMA! A lot of my very conservative friends would go for Mitt instead of Rick because they think that Mitt stands a better chance of beating Obama. They are convinced that Rick will get destroyed. Sorry, just the truth. Fortunately, I didn’t have to make that choice. I got to vote for my candidate.
I’ll second that. Santorum would obviously gain the most.
The person who is second behind Newt isn’t going to bow out for a guy who is polling low double digits or single digits in most states.
The idea is grossly absurd. How do Newt folks think Santorum voters will go? What it they went to Mitt?
I absolutely agree. If Newt(and he’s the one to do it) were to drop out and ask his supporters to go to Rick, there would be a surge of hope for the non Romneys that would likely translate into more support for Santorum.
Romney’s supporters/voters have been swayed by his appearance and endorsements - not his socialist programs.
Santorum’s supporters/voters are puritans - impressed by his family, youth and preaching - not his big government record.
Newt’s supporters/voters are small government/Consitutional advocates - impressed by his experience, solutions and conservative record. They are not prudes - but realists.
Not sure how any of the above supporters change their minds and ‘cross over’. The 3 candidates are too far apart in personal and political principles.
Yup, agreed. Great point.
Newt is our best option by far.
40% would go to Romney if Newt quitted. That proves once for all that he needs to stay on, otherwise Romney would be nominated for sure.
I am Newt supporter who would switch to Romney because I don’t think santorum can fight Obama machine.
Never mind Newt’s continued support of ethanol subsidies, incentives for green energy, and promises of whole new federal environmental agencies.
If you just don’t talk about them they don’t exist.
Again you are making the incorrect assumption that people that support Santorum or Gingrich do so because they hate Romney.
And you’re projecting FR on to the Republican electorate. The two have very little to do with each other.
There indeed is a large proportion of Gingrich supporters out there in the real world for whom Romney is their second choice.
There are a lot of folks who think Santorum is just not ready for prime time.
We need a new president who can hit the ground running and begin to undo the damage done by Obama and his ilk.
That new president is not Rick Santorum. He’ll do whatever the republicans in Congress tell him to do. That’s all he did during his tenure in the Senate. I see no leadership qualities in Rick Santorum ... and certainly not at the level and degree we will need.
You will notice a common sort of shallowness among supporters of one particular candidate.
Because they aren't there.....
That is what I wish would happen. Santorum time after time bungles his message. There is no way he could manage in a one on one w/ the O. If Santorum would drop out, enough voters would go to Newt that I think he could overcome Mitt as the race progresses.
Just looking at the history of the race so far makes it clear to any realistic person.
In the two states where Gingrich won, Santorum had no effect. In Florida where Gingrich finished second to Romney, Gingrich lost by more than Santorum took. In Michigan, Santorum lost by 3 and Gingrich took 7. In Ohio, Santorum lost by 1 and Gingrich took 3.
Gingrich isn’t even running to win at this point. He’s running to divide. This is equally harmful to Romney and Santorum in proportional delegate states but in winner take all states it hands the race to Romney.
I think your assessment of the three groups of voters is pretty good. I might add some average IQ variances as well.....
Thank you, Strategerist.
Your comment is based on the real world, and the world at large, not a dream world or a microcosm (here on FR) of the whole.
Gingrich appeals to a lot of people who at the same time feel that Santorum is NOT, repeat NOT, the answer. They might not care for Romney, for a host of reasons we know so well, but if FORCED to choose between staying home, doing a write in which means nothing, leaving their presidential line blank, voting for Santorum or voting for Romney, about half of them will choose Romney.
I fully understand those people. In spirit I’m right there with them about Santorum.
But unlike them, feel so repulsed by Romney that voting for him is beyond me.
All the polls show that Gingrich’s supports are divided 40% each for Snatorum and Romney, if they are true if Gingrich leaves Romney takes it.
I haven’t seen any about Santorum leaving, my guess would be the same.
I don’t understand Santorum supporters’ strategy/rationale.
By all accounts, Newt dropping out does NOT ensure Santorum can garner enough delegates to win the nomination.
However, Newt dropping out DOES make it more possible for Romney to get enough delegates.
If the number one objective is to make sure Romney doesn’t become the nominee, why then do Santorum supporters continue to insist that Newt drop out?
Let them fight it out at the convention. Or is that what Santorum is afraid of, that his support isn’t really that deep and he’ll loose there.
The majority of Southern states have had their primaries and the remaining few are proportional states. The south is Newt’s strength and even there he has placed first in only 2 states. He is a perennial third outside the south. No way Santorum is going to drop out for Newt. The best Newt can hope for is that he will siphon enough delegates as a third choice that Romney will not reach the magic delegate number.
And when faced with only big government types, they will still choose based on one criteria, which is 'who will leave me alone'.
To small-government types, when faced with unpalatable statist choices, tend to find the following true:
Of all tyrannies, a tyranny sincerely exercised for the good of its victims may be the most oppressive. It would be better to live under robber barons than under omnipotent moral busybodies. The robber barons cruelty may sometimes sleep, his cupidity may at some point be satiated; but those who torment us for our own good will torment us without end for they do so with the approval of their own conscience. They may be more likely to go to Heaven yet at the same time likelier to make a Hell of earth. This very kindness stings with intolerable insult. To be cured against ones will and cured of states which we may not regard as disease is to be put on a level of those who have not yet reached the age of reason or those who never will; to be classed with infants, imbeciles, and domestic animals.
- C.S. Lewis
Which means Romney over Santorum.
(G-d, defending Romney... Barf! Thanks Santorum, for positioning yourself farther away from individual liberty than Romney. What a rotten b@$!@rd for doing so.)
I think you are exactly correct with that, but if you want the federal government in your house, in your computer, in your bedroom, and in your toilet, then the Ayatollah Santorum is your federal regulations boy.
It really is too bad that most voters don’t read FR or anything else for a full discussion of the candidates.
This is the reason we have the current POTUS - force-fed fantasy from the candidate and propaganda puffery by the press and pundits.
It has always taken a kick in the head crisis to awaken Americans to reality and revival. (WWI & WWII & the Depression, Cold War etc.,) We regularly go soft and stupid - just because we can.
I think it boils down to my post #26.
“And youre projecting FR on to the Republican electorate.”
That’s a common mistake. It reminds me of a very wealthy acquaintance of mine who hangs out mostly with similarly wealthy people. He thinks middle class households earn about $150K a year.
What if Romney exited? Just asking....
I would strongly urge NOT to take a sitting conservative senator. We need every conservative we can muster in the senate. Take a governor or Congressman.
Don’t really care anymore who supports whom and for what reason. The silliness that this once bastion of intelligence site has become is disturbing. As if one argument or another is going to squash the “opposition” and elevate one’s guy to victory.
I agree with the assessment that there are Romneybots here who are trying to muddy the waters.
The time spent arguing over why we despise one candidate more and for what reasons..is self defeating...and really uninteresting...
With the exception of Mittens, of course.
Just like repetitive Hannity hammers his points, there are never too many arguments to convince gullible voters that a Romney nomination is NOT a certainty and can still be thwarted.
Our country is on the brink and we need to figure out what we can realistically do to help at this point.
I am actively working for my candidate in my state, whose primary is April 3.
Would love to know what some of the rest of us are doing for the Conservative cause and advancement of our liberties. Sitting in front of a computer and spewing anonymous, negative comments may make one feel powerful...but real power lies in taking action..and doing something!
I have decided to focus on Senate races nationally and local races in my state instead. If we can take the Senate, we will be contributing to the checks and balances system that may be our only hope of tempering an out of control radical POTUS.
Am with you on not voting for Rom. tx.
Can’t/won’t do it..matter of principle.
A Conservative Veep could help him win..but afterwards, what Veeps do you know of who had any influence after election day?
Mittens would throw them under his bus before the Inaugural ceremony was through.
I agree with you that to yank someone like Marco from the Senate could be a disaster.
Susanna Martinez of NM might be a good choice..
But I’m still not convinced that Mittens will be the nominee. No Romney/No Way.
Love the way Levin is stepping up and dissing him on his show.
Most folks understand the goal is to defeat Obama ...
And as most rational voters understand, Rick Santorum is NOT the man for that job.
The choice that remains is between Mitt and Newt. That’s just the way it is.
So please stop with this vapid, shallow mantra about “going with Willard”. It’s not nearly as intelligent as you think it is. In fact, it makes you sound foolish.
Wow, right out of the Alinsky rule book. Shameful.
Multiple other polls, prominently discussed here on this forum, have shown the opposite to be true - Santorum's vote splits between them while nearly all of Gingrich's vote goes to Santorum.
Multiple other actual polls have shown the opposite which were prominently discussed here - as I’m sure you are aware (I’m sure those polls had no credibility because they didn’t have the results you wanted to display, and now this one is because it shows what you want). Information showed that primaries Santorum narrowly won or narrowly lost he would have won handily over Romney without Gingrich in the race, with Romney winning handily with Santorum out of the race.
It must be nice to be so smart.
Which lends some credibility to Gallup, which took a huge sample to overcome the inherent polling difficulties associated with discerning differences within a homogenous population.
The caveat, however, comes with the Gingrich slug (less so with the inclusion of "Republican-leaning independents"). The slug is necessarily noted & noteworthy, but at the same time the internal sample suffers from the small population:
- For results based on the total sample of Republican registered voters, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points.
- For results based on the total sample of 290 Newt Gingrich supporters, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±7 percentage points.
Not to mention being outspent 4,5,6,10 to 1 in some states and still remaining competitive.
If either one dropped out, was announced as the other’s V.P., and stayed on the campaign trail with them, then the other would almost certainly pick up the vast majority of their support. Does anyone disagree with it? That’s what they need to do. They should be locked in a room until they’re able to make a deal along those lines. Because there’s one thing that’s almost certain, if all 4 candidates stay in the race and the status quo continues, Romney wins by getting around 1,200 delegates by June. Unless of course, Romney is arrested for murder between now and then.
As of super Tuesday, Santorum had only spent half again when my congressman spent winning his seat in my district.
I like that kind of conservatism.
Romney would get the nomination easily. It is either Santorum or Romney. You can't as much as people would hope name a nominee that has only won two states. Just can't happen. Newt cannot win anywhere else in America. I am sorry for that, but those are the facts. If he could have won at least one state in each area then I think he could be the nominee, but since it is only his home state and the state next to it, how could he get enough electorals? I think SC and GA would give him 19 electorals and Obama would get about 520. That is not a good strategy.
- "The best thing Romney might have going for him right now is Gingrich's continued presence in the race. If Gingrich dropped out 58% of his supporters say they would move to Santorum, while 22% would go to Romney and 17% to Paul."
Which is why I think his best bet is to run for Governor of Georgia. That is where his strength is. He would make a fine Governor of Georgia. They love him there (at least 43 percent do) and that might be enough for him to make it. He just doesn't muster much interest beyond Georgia....South Carolina he could probably run for Governor if he moved there now and started campaigning. This is his best option now. Nothing else is feasible for him. People are not voting for him for President.
Newt is best for Governor of Georgia. He never should have jumped into the Presidency run without a state wide run. He is a horrible campaigner and planner. Skipping all those states was the dumbest thing I have seen in politics. He is better suited as Governor of Georgia. It would not be easy to win but he has a shot.