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Romney up big in Illinois (PPP- Rom 45 San 30 NEWT 12)
PPP ^ | 3-18-12 | PPP

Posted on 03/18/2012 10:14:19 PM PDT by VinL

Mitt Romney is headed for a blowout victory in Illinois on Tuesday. He leads with 45% to 30% for Rick Santorum, 12% for Newt Gingrich, and 10% for Ron Paul.

Romney's particularly strong among voters who live in suburban areas (50-29) and with those who live in urban areas (46-23). But he's even running slightly ahead of Santorum, 38-36, with folks who identify as living in rural parts and that strength with a group of voters he hasn't tended to do that well with is why he's looking at such a lopsided margin of victory.

Romney tends to win moderates in most states and Santorum usually win voters describing themselves as 'very conservative.' The swing group in the Republican electorate is those identifying as just 'somewhat conservative.' Romney is winning those folks by a whooping 60-20 margin in Illinois. Romney's also benefiting from a 52-28 advantage with seniors. We've tended to find Santorum a lot more popular with voters even in states that Romney has won over the last six weeks, but that's not the case in Illinois. Romney's favorability is 57/34, about par for the course of where we've found him this year. Santorum's at only 55/36, much worse numbers than we've seen for him most places in the last couple months, and suggesting that GOP voters are starting to sour on him a little bit.

Santorum's winning the group he tends to do well with- Tea Partiers, Evangelicals, and those describing themselves as 'very conservative.' But he's not winning them by the kinds of wide margins he would need to take an overall victory- he's up only 8 with Tea Party voters and 10 with Evangelicals, groups he needs to win by more like 25 points with to hope to win in a northern state. Santorum can't blame Gingrich for his troubles in Illinois either. If Newt was out Romney would still have an 11 point advantage on Santorum, 45-34.


TOPICS: Breaking News; News/Current Events; US: Illinois
KEYWORDS: gingrich; il2012; illinois; santorum
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Rick should have cut a deal wt Newt after FLA- instead of going negative on Newt- and splitting conservatives.
1 posted on 03/18/2012 10:14:33 PM PDT by VinL
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To: VinL

This is a disaster. Either Newt get out or endorse Rick in Illinois. We are going to be stuck with Romney if Newt does not stop his nonsense. This is crazy. Santorum would be in first place had Newt not stolen votes from Rick in Ohio, Michigan and now it looks like Illinois. Do the right thing Newt. I still think Newt should run for Governor of Georgia. This would be his first time running in a state election and might just be a success. He is wasting his time running for President. I know the money is good for him but I would imagine a Governor’s salary would not be too bad.


2 posted on 03/18/2012 10:19:33 PM PDT by napscoordinator (A moral principled Christian with character is the frontrunner! Congrats Santorum!)
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To: VinL
Newt Gingrich cannot win in Illinois with his external and internal polls with two days to go, with these kinds of numbers. However, Rick Santorum can (as the margin of undecided is still fairly high and volatile) prevail, within the margin of error.

However, I suppose it is up to many people in the GOP if they want to award this one to Romney as well by continuing to split the Conservative vote, or not, and have the RINO as the standard bearer of the Party, not to mention a moderate platform, and the whole thing come to a crashing defeat in November.

3 posted on 03/18/2012 10:20:17 PM PDT by AmericanInTokyo (If Free Republic morphs into a supportive site for Romney, I'll conclude my 13 year participation.)
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To: VinL

What the hell was Santorum doing dithering around in PR when he should’ve been pounding pavement in IL? What an idiot. Maybe he’s the Romney spoiler after all.


4 posted on 03/18/2012 10:23:34 PM PDT by Utmost Certainty (Our Enemy, the State | Gingrich 2012)
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To: napscoordinator

Not only are we going to be stuck with Romney, we are going to be stuck with Obama.


5 posted on 03/18/2012 10:25:35 PM PDT by gunsequalfreedom (Conservative is not a label of convenience. It is a guide to your actions.)
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To: VinL
Thus far, Mitt Romney has generally outperformed the others in the category of those making more than $200,000 annually.

If those exits polls are accurate, it's amazing. These people who have benefited by our American system of free enterprise are voting against their self interest. Romney's programs will merely continue anti-wealth-producing policies of Obama.

These people, who have done so well by dint of their intelligence and hard work, are betraying the very America that allowed them to prosper by coalescing around Romney. They really ought to know better. These are the producers but they're supporting a looter.

6 posted on 03/18/2012 10:26:04 PM PDT by re_nortex (DP...that's what I like about Texas.)
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To: napscoordinator

Naps, Rick can’t beat him one on one- Newt neither. Romney has limitless money, organization, the MSM and the Gop-e apparatus.

They had to unite after Fla.


7 posted on 03/18/2012 10:26:14 PM PDT by VinL (It is better to suffer every wrong, than to consent to wrong.)
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To: napscoordinator

Exactly. Get ready for our Obama.

Santorum 2012


8 posted on 03/18/2012 10:26:30 PM PDT by RIghtwardHo
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To: VinL
Mitt is doing to Rick in Illinois what he did to Newt in Florida: negative ads, most of them defamatory.

Romney is burning so many bridges that he won't have a base if he makes it past the convention.

9 posted on 03/18/2012 10:29:19 PM PDT by Kennard
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To: VinL

Well that is too late now. We will be stuck with Romney. This really sucks. We FINALLY had the opportunity for a great conservative in Rick Santorum with social issues which we have NEVER had and it has been ruined by egos and selfishness. Oh well. Good luck with the election. This is what you guys fought for.


10 posted on 03/18/2012 10:30:37 PM PDT by napscoordinator (A moral principled Christian with character is the frontrunner! Congrats Santorum!)
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To: Kennard

In Tennessee and Mississippi, those negative Romney (and Newt PAC) ads only ended up helping Santorum at the end. We’ll have to see what happens this time.


11 posted on 03/18/2012 10:30:56 PM PDT by Ingtar
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To: VinL
PPP surveyed 506 likely Republican primary voters on March 17th and 18th.

His numbers drop big time right after the media focuses on the “pandemic of pornography” comments found on his web page.

12 posted on 03/18/2012 10:31:17 PM PDT by Doofer (Still, a man hears what he wants to hear and disregards the rest.)
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To: Utmost Certainty

That’s what I was thinking also. Why waste time in Peurto Rico when Illinois will be such a pivotal state from here on. May be he needed a vacation in sunny PR?


13 posted on 03/18/2012 10:37:01 PM PDT by entropy12 (Republicans do not hate, that is a monopoly of democrats.)
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To: VinL

Also, just a reminder, the night before AL and MS, PPP had Santorum third in both places, and even lower on the Sunday before. It did not have their desired outcome there and it might not in Illinois, especially in terms of delegates.


14 posted on 03/18/2012 10:38:21 PM PDT by Ingtar
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To: Utmost Certainty

A Hydra Is In The Mourning After Pill
OBMACARE is a 1.76 Trillion $ Hydra a 9 headed snake
which Can only be Destroyed By A Firebrand
by L.J .Keslin http://www.theusmat.com

Of the three GOP candidates remaining opposing Mitt Romney . Only one man had the courage to take on a what they call a third rail issue...Eugenics... and has had his character asassinated for it... He’s been pummeled from both sides called , a women hater ,, a religious nut, ..a one trick pony, Santorum could an hour discussing oil and the economy then 10 seconds comenting about pornography but guess what MSM and Santorum detractors will talk about... certainly not ,what’s really in the 1.76 trillion dolllar wonder called Obamacare ,,...!; Population control.... and all that goes with it. Including cost, 1.76 trillion.

To pay off a trillion dollars at $1.00 a second would take 31,564 years. At a billion dollars a second only 995.70 years.(220 days). Not including interest.

Two groups late in the last century led in Eugenic development. The Nazis and the Communists. Few know or remember how the Nazis began. First citing “health risk” “nicht rauchen” baning cigarette smoking, Then terminating Down Syndrome children, and then on to mentally defective children and adults,. then on to besides murdering opponents, races. All done to make the German Reich healthy and last a thousand years.

So you go to the MSM (Main Stream Media) the so called “gate keepers” for information about these things and you find closed gates .. The sorcerers in the media magically reduce a 2000 page Hydra , a Greek legendary nine headed venomous serpent that must be slain by a firebrand ,and morph it into the mourning after pill and a “womans health care issue.”

The “gatekeepers” never tell you that Obamacare bill creators and the Amish are exempt from being in Obamacare. The drafters are on record actually calling it population control and demanding Catholic bishops support it.* Their statements are out there .But not mentioned by the so called gate-keepers but by the AM the alternate media, meaning radio talk shows like Limbaugh’s and websites like Britebart’s Government . Places Obama wants to shut down and will once re-elected *Joel Pollak Britebart Government .

Eugenics explained in common words is this. And it ain’t just b/c pills, condoms, and womens rights. It’s government policy. :You surrender your individuality to the group to advance the greater good of the group. If your unhealthy or too old and you can’t work for the greater good of the group any more, you are disposed of in the way the group decides. If there are too many people , the group decides no more babiys, kill them. Now lets take the word”group” and change it for the word “ state”. Women surrender their rights when they buy into this monstrosity . That is what’s in Obamacare which is deceptively titled “The Affordable Health Care Act”

Yet Obamacom tzars who hail from that foreign land, the deep swamp of Acadamica are all preaching the utopian wonders of Eugenics. Why it’s the final solution (remember him ?) population control. Which is part of the Obamacare package.

Let’s hope Santorum decides not to shy away from this issue miss characterized as only a social issued. It is both a social and financial issue $ 1.75 trillion is in no way a minor expenditure. Population control affects US from the cradle to the grave. .but Santorum can not speakout and act against this despicable movement ? Particularly when that is being shoved on religious groups by the Demo-Coms . Especially when they are ignoring constitutional rights...

Recently private job creation projects rejection by the demo-coms should send a signal to the Republican bleeding heart establishment . “Bi-partisanship” doesn’t exist with sociaists .The GOP’s annointed presidential candidate Mitt Romney. should start realizing Obama is a “socialist”.. Everyone including the monthly liberal magazine Newsweek knows he is but Mr Romney just can’t seem to get around to calling him one/ . Preventing an iron mine in Wisconsin for a desperate area in need of jobs or preventing the Keystone pipeline transfering oil from Canada to American refineries decisions which would have provided employment to thousands and reduced gas prices. was not on the hypenated party (demo-com party agenda.


15 posted on 03/18/2012 10:39:55 PM PDT by mosesdapoet ("The best way to punish a country is let professors run it. Fredrick the Great p/p)
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To: napscoordinator; VinL

The PPP polling showed Gingrich ahead in MS and AL and we all saw how that went. Santorum wins the late deciders. Yes, Gingrich continues to be a spoiler and the margins of defeat/victory in IL will tell the real story. Gingrich is in this race simply to stay relevant in the news cycle. After his massive defeat in FL, he hasn’t recovered. His “southern strategy” went up in smoke and now his fans with their heads buried in the sand (make that in concrete) are doing their utmost to prop him up by constructing a a Potemkin village all around him.


16 posted on 03/18/2012 10:53:17 PM PDT by Steelfish (ui)
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To: napscoordinator; VinL

The PPP polling showed Gingrich ahead in MS and AL and we all saw how that went. Santorum wins the late deciders. Yes, Gingrich continues to be a spoiler and the margins of defeat/victory in IL will tell the real story. Gingrich is in this race simply to stay relevant in the news cycle. After his massive defeat in FL, he hasn’t recovered. His “southern strategy” went up in smoke and now his fans with their heads buried in the sand (make that in concrete) are doing their utmost to prop him up by constructing a a Potemkin village all around him.


17 posted on 03/18/2012 10:53:22 PM PDT by Steelfish (ui)
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To: Steelfish

Let’s hope that he gets the late deciders. He has worked very hard for the nomination.....did not spend millions like one and does not think he should be handed it like another.


18 posted on 03/18/2012 11:02:08 PM PDT by napscoordinator (A moral principled Christian with character is the frontrunner! Congrats Santorum!)
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To: Kennard
The most disingenous way to get the Republican nomination that I have seen in years. Not that I am whining. Just want to make clear that it is even worse than NIXON, this Romney scorched earth personal attack on every conservative Republican with TONS of RINO/WALL STREET cash, and now he says that he is going to be "gentlemanly" with "The President" in the general election. Oh, have we ever been down this same road, like four years ago, into total disaster. Milquetoast RINO vs. unbridled LIB/DEM. with full Media support.

I know how this story goes, and it ain't got a good ending.

19 posted on 03/18/2012 11:03:59 PM PDT by AmericanInTokyo (If Free Republic morphs into a supportive site for Romney, I'll conclude my 13 year participation.)
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To: VinL

>> Rick should have cut a deal wt Newt after FLA- instead of going negative on Newt- and splitting conservatives.

LOL. Excellent preemptive.


20 posted on 03/18/2012 11:06:14 PM PDT by Gene Eric (Newt/Sarah 2012)
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To: napscoordinator

Rick messed up in Ill like he did in a few previous states. From what I understand because of this incompetence he’s handed Romney 10 delegates before the polling places even open.

If he can’t manage a campaign, what makes you think he can manage America?

Rule number one for every candidate: get on the ballot!


21 posted on 03/18/2012 11:12:06 PM PDT by roscommon
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To: napscoordinator

>> it has been ruined by egos and selfishness.

What a pant load. The indignation of Team Santorum knows no limits.

Newt peeled away the Romney voters, not Rick.


22 posted on 03/18/2012 11:21:11 PM PDT by Gene Eric (Newt/Sarah 2012)
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To: Gene Eric

Here’s Santorum’s entire speech in Ilinois. “Rick Santorum makes his case to voters in Effingham, Illinois, ahead of that state’s primary on Tuesday, where 69 delegates are up for grabs.” HE SPENT THE ENTIR SPEECH TALKING ABOUT MITT AND OBAMA. Nothing about what HIS PLANS ARE. HIS SOLUTIONS OR DETAILS! Nothing but pablum. http://www.c-span.org/Campaign2012/Rick-Santorum-Campaigns-in-Illinois-Ahead-of-Tuesday39s-Primary/10737429126-1/


23 posted on 03/18/2012 11:33:01 PM PDT by anglian
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To: VinL; All

I have an assignment for those FReepers with absolutely no life and a lot of time on their hand.

I’ve run the numbers in my IL simulation for only 10 counties, but I’m basically coming up with what PPP is. Your looking at the following:

Romney: 46-48%
Santorum 34-36%
Newt: 8-11%
Paul 5-7%

Anyway, for those of you that want to go through the assignment, here’s what you’ll need to do:

OPEN UP THE FOLLOWING PAGES:
(1) Go Here to look at the Bush/Kerry vote Totals for Each IL County in 2004
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004//pages/results/states/IL/P/00/county.000.html

(2) Go Here to look at the McCain/Obama vote Totals for Each IL County in 2008
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/county/#ILP00p1

(3) Go Here to look at the 2008 Republican Primary Results for IL
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/state/#IL

With those 3 pages in Hand, here’s what you do.

1. Record the 2004 Bush Kerry Vote Total for the County
2. Record the 2008 McCain Obama Vote Total for the County
3. Determine how much the vote total increased/decreased by dviding the 2008 number by the 2004 number
4. Use this Percentage Increase/Decrease to Multiply by the 2008 Total to get the projected 2012 Vote Total for the County
5. Compare the Percentage of the Vote Bush got in the County to the Percentage McCain got in the same County for the 2004/2008 General Elections. Try to use a middle number or number closer to Bush, if possible. This is what the GOP needs in the County to be “compettiive”.
6. Multiply this percentage by the 2012 Projected Vote Number. Then Multiply (1-this percentage) by the 2012 Projected Vote Number to determine what the votes Obama should be held to in the County.
7. Add up the 2008 Republican Primary Votes and divide it by the total number of votes John McCain got in the county in the General Election. This is a rough estimate of the primary turnout for 2008.
8. For every 3.5% the County Increased or Decreased in Voter Population, Add/Subtract 1 Percentage Point to determine the projected 2012 Primary Turnout.

9. Allocate 2012 Primary Votes based on the following formula:

a. Assign Santorum 90% of 08 Huckabee Total, 40% of John McCain Total, and 70% of the Voter Increase (if one exists for that county)

b. Assign Romney 08 Vote Totals, 50% of John McCain total, 10% of the Voter Increase

c. Assign Gingrich 10% Huckabee, 10% McCain, 10% Voter Increase

d. Assign Paul 08 Vote Totals, 10% Voter Increase.

——————————EXAMPLE——————————————

Alexander County:
2004 Votes: 3,847
2008 Votes: 3,881
1% Voter Increase
Projected 2012 Votes: 3,920
GOP Needs: 1,764 (Bush got 47, McCain 43, aim for 45%)
Hold Obama: 2,156 (55%)
2008 Primary Turnout: 24% (400/1692)
2012 Primary Turnout: 24% (423 Votes)

Allocate 424 Votes:
Santorum (90% of 118, 40% of 137, 70% of 23) = 177/42%
Romney (100% of 130, 50% of 137, 10% of 23) = 201/48%
Gingrich (10% of 118, 10% of 137, 10% of 23) = 28/6%
Paul (100% of 15, 10% of 23) = 17/4%

And hence we see the problem. These small counties look like Romney’s going to hold sold in the middle part of the state. As you cover more counties, you’ll see the voter population actually decreased for many counties, similar to what happened in IA. Rick needs to take all of these small counties by 500-1000 votes, but there just doesn’t seem to be enough voters.

Fast forward for Cook County with just the projected numbers:

Romney 99,394/52%
Santorum 68,016 /35%
Gingrich 13,169/7%
Paul 12,340/6%

No way for Rick to make these margins up.

I’ve actually ran this for 10 counties so far including: Alexander, Cook, Carroll, Calhoun, Bureau, Brown, Boone, Bond, Adams, and Pulaski Counties. So if you want to pick up from where I left off, there’s only 92 Counties to go.

So far for the 10 Counties I’ve done, the aggregate numbers are:

Romney: 110,984/51.16%
Santorum: 77,607/35.77%
Gingrich: 14,822/6.83%
Paul: 13,527/6.24%

Romney’s numbers will come down somewhat with more midstate/downstate counties, but not by much. His final number is probably around 46-47%. Rick is probably capped at 38%, and if Newt gets closer to 11%, 35 may be is cap.

So if you’ve got free time to surf the data and finish the simulation, I’d be grateful because this stuff takes way too much time to do by one person.

What, you thought I pulled these numbers out of my a$$ or something?


24 posted on 03/18/2012 11:35:59 PM PDT by parksstp (I pick RIck! (If he's good enough for Mark Levin and Rush Limbaugh, he's good enough for me))
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To: VinL

After having taken onboard Cain and Perry, Newt offered a partnership to Santorum before SC but got sneered at.

Look how that is turning out...


25 posted on 03/18/2012 11:43:25 PM PDT by Berlin_Freeper
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To: Gene Eric
YOU SAID: "Newt peeled away the Romney Voters, not Rick" Let's review Newt's Voting Base: 1. Primarily Male (Especially 25-44 group) 2. Supports the Tea Party 3. Very Conservative 4. Possibly Religious/Evangelical 5. Income Earners <100K 6. Rural Now Let's review Romney's Voting Base: 1. Primarily Female 2. Seniors (Especially > Age 65 3. Dominates Hispanics 4. Opposes the Tea Party 5. Somewhat Conservative/Moderate/Liberal Republicans 6. Affluent Republicans Income >100K 7. "Can Beat Obama" voter mindsets 8. Not necessarily religious 9. Urban Centers/Suburban areas Do you see any gigantic overlap in their voting demographics? HOWEVER, Santorum's voter demographics are nearly identical to Newt's, with the exception that Santorum brings in more females and more Evangelical voters than Newt, while they run about even in the other categories. So your notion that "Newt peeled away the Romney voters" lacks substantial support. Typed my comment split up with spaces, but it's showing as 1 paragraph. Not sure why.
26 posted on 03/18/2012 11:54:44 PM PDT by parksstp (I pick RIck! (If he's good enough for Mark Levin and Rush Limbaugh, he's good enough for me))
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To: anglian

>> Nothing about what HIS PLANS ARE

That’s not what his campaign is about. He’s the underdog, dagnammit, and he’s serious!

>> Nothing but pablum

Ironically, it worked for Obama in 2008.


27 posted on 03/18/2012 11:56:46 PM PDT by Gene Eric (Newt/Sarah 2012)
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Rick Santorum:
“If you look at the voters who voted for me, and where they would go if I was not in the race it would be divided between Romney and Gingrich, actually more toward Romney than Gingrich.”


28 posted on 03/19/2012 12:11:13 AM PDT by anglian
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To: parksstp

The insertion of any HTML tags will hammer simple carriage returns.

Thanks for the data. I’ve seen similar numbers.


29 posted on 03/19/2012 12:17:49 AM PDT by Gene Eric (Newt/Sarah 2012)
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To: napscoordinator; entropy12; Ingtar
We FINALLY had the opportunity for a great conservative in Rick Santorum with social issues which we have NEVER had and it has been ruined by egos and selfishness.

How was W or Reagan any less socially conservative than Rick?

That’s what I was thinking also. Why waste time in Peurto Rico when Illinois will be such a pivotal state from here on. May be he needed a vacation in sunny PR?

I posted the same thing a few days ago here as soon as it was announced Rick was going to Puerto Rico. It's the same mistake Rick made on Super Tuesday by wasting time in Georgia instead of going to Ohio more. It's complete inexperienced stupidity. Romney is a terrible candidate with a top-flight campaign operation. Newt and Rick's campaigns are amateur hour operations.

It did not have their desired outcome there and it might not in Illinois, especially in terms of delegates.

IL doesn't award delegates unless you get the most votes in a district. There is no proportional distribution. This has Romney beating Santorum in every single region. Therefore Romney will get all 54 delegates and Santorum will get 0 if this holds.

If Newt was out Romney would still have an 11 point advantage on Santorum, 45-34.

Makes no sense, they're saying Newt's 12% if he drops out only had 4% go to Rick and 0% to Romney. The other 8% went to Paul I guess? Just shows you can't do polling on this second choice stuff. Sounds like most voters just said they'd be undecided at that point. Obviously if Gingrich endorsed Rick or was announced as V.P. Rick would get most of his support, and the undecided of Newt's voters would probably break mostly to Rick anyway.

30 posted on 03/19/2012 12:38:58 AM PDT by JediJones (The Divided States of Obama's Declaration of Dependence: Death, Taxes and the Pursuit of Crappiness)
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To: VinL

No big wonder, socialists are attracted to each other!


31 posted on 03/19/2012 12:57:42 AM PDT by saintgermaine
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To: napscoordinator

Why is it always someone else’s fault when their candidate doesn’t win? The idea between a primary is for all the candidates to showcase who they are and may the best man (or woman) win. Honestly, after the whole porn fiasco (part of the vetting) it’s obvious Santorum would go down in the polls. It’s not that it’s not an important issue, it’s that he took his eye off the ball (it’s the economy stupid). You simply can’t legislate morality no matter how much you try. He lost sight of what’s important to the majority of Americans RIGHT NOW. His morals are in the right place but he simply doesn’t have the experience necessary to be president. That’s nothing to be ashamed of, he just might want to start with something smaller, like governor of PA. That would give him executive experience and the opportunity to learn to deal with the press in a smaller venue.

Cindie


32 posted on 03/19/2012 12:58:35 AM PDT by gardencatz (I'm lucky enough to live, walk & breathe among heroes! I am the mother of a US Marine!)
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To: Steelfish

Gingrich is holding a huge grudge against Romeny, (can’t say I blame him) but, dang it - his super-inflated ego is giving us Romney. Newt won’t win a brokered convention - he can’t win any more than 2 states. What the heck is wrong with him?

This is nothing more than personal politics for him - his crowds are waning, his poll numbers are in the toilet, and he thinks he has a chance at the nomination? What alternative universe is he living in?

I liked Newt, but, am starting to get very angry at him because he is putting his personal feelings and politics ahead of country. And, for that reason - I can no longer support his efforts. He needs to get out NOW! He doesn’t have a prayer. If he is a conservative, as he claims, then he should want another conservative to take on Romney, because it sure isn’t going to be him!!!!


33 posted on 03/19/2012 1:06:07 AM PDT by Catsrus
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To: VinL

Once again, Rino Romney wins a primary in a state which will go for Obama in Nov.


34 posted on 03/19/2012 1:10:04 AM PDT by syriacus (Irony: BO's childhood pres, Suharto, used free bc to reduce Catholic population in Indonesia.)
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To: gardencatz

The obscenity issue is Rick’s opponents taking a policy position off his web site that’s been there for months and trying to make it sound like it’s something he’s bringing up now. Are you saying you want every candidate to remove anything related to cultural/moral issues off of their platforms and web sites, period? That’s what it would require to stop their opponents from trumping up stories that they’re “focusing” on these issues.

If the moderates in the GOP wanted to wage all out internal war to remove cultural/moral issues from the platform, the effort would look exactly like this primary. They’re handing us a moderate and trying to convince the voters that talking about cultural/moral issues makes our candidates unelectable.

How would they react if someone tried to do the same with a Republican candidate who was saying the U.S. needed to go communist, because talking about capitalism right now would make our candidate unelectable? Obama is more ready to make the argument against capitalism than anything else. He’s been doing it for most of his presidency.

Cultural/moral “wedge” issues could arguably be our best shot at winning the presidency. With economic issues, you’re also taking the risk that the economy is doing better or gas prices are lower by November, in which case Obama has all the credibility in the world to claim that his economic policies are the right ones. But what’s morally right doesn’t change.


35 posted on 03/19/2012 1:40:04 AM PDT by JediJones (The Divided States of Obama's Declaration of Dependence: Death, Taxes and the Pursuit of Crappiness)
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To: gardencatz
Why is it always someone else’s fault when their candidate doesn’t win? The idea between a primary is for all the candidates to showcase who they are and may the best man (or woman) win

If you put 4 exact clones of Rick Santorum into the primary up against one Mitt Romney, and Mitt Romney was winning every primary with 21% of the vote vs. 20%, 20%, 20% and 19%, would you still say that it wasn't the fault of the Rick Santorum clones? We've already lived this story once with Ross Perot and Bush Sr. and apparently learned nothing. Splitting the vote among similar candidates hands the minority candidate a win. It represents a flaw in our voting system (being able to score candidates on the ballot on a scale of 1 to 5 would solve the problem), but we have to work with the system we have and build our strategy around it. The candidates who are similar need to work together, not compete against each other if they want a candidate who is closer to them on the issues to win.

36 posted on 03/19/2012 1:45:02 AM PDT by JediJones (The Divided States of Obama's Declaration of Dependence: Death, Taxes and the Pursuit of Crappiness)
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To: Utmost Certainty
What the hell was Santorum doing dithering around in PR when he should’ve been pounding pavement in IL? What an idiot. Maybe he’s the Romney spoiler after all.

Well id it weren't for Newt and the media lifting up Rick he'd not be any further now then he was early on. He's an amature and that's why we see all his errors of judgement in what he says and does.

37 posted on 03/19/2012 2:16:36 AM PDT by caww
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To: Catsrus

Do not underestimate Newt....as so many do. He said from the beginning this would well go to convention...and further would not be a “ Traditional Primary’. Of course that’s exactly what we are seeing, as none other before.

This isn’t about a “grudge” toward Romney...this is all about ‘stopping’ Romney as Newt recognizes that a Romney win isn’t going to re-set this country. Newt’s in this to win in the end so don’t make the mistake of thinking he’s going to be out anytime soon. Newt and SAntorum are setting this stage...not Romney!

Besides...It was not until June that Reagan began to move fast across the stage.....and we’re only half way there . I have no doubt that Newt has already been planning, (which Santorum never does), for how he’s going to play his most vital hand ahead.


38 posted on 03/19/2012 2:34:53 AM PDT by caww
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To: Catsrus

Do not underestimate Newt....as so many do. He said from the beginning this would well go to convention...and further would not be a “ Traditional Primary’. Of course that’s exactly what we are seeing, as none other before.

This isn’t about a “grudge” toward Romney...this is all about ‘stopping’ Romney as Newt recognizes that a Romney win isn’t going to re-set this country. Newt’s in this to win in the end so don’t make the mistake of thinking he’s going to be out anytime soon. Newt and SAntorum are setting this stage...not Romney!

Besides...It was not until June that Reagan began to move fast across the stage.....and we’re only half way there . I have no doubt that Newt has already been planning, (which Santorum never does), for how he’s going to play his most vital hand ahead.

PS. It’ not about winning states...it’s about winning delegates.


39 posted on 03/19/2012 2:35:50 AM PDT by caww
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To: napscoordinator
We FINALLY had the opportunity for a great conservative in Rick Santorum with social issues

The problem with Santorum is he is conservative on social issues ONLY He is a big spending union supporting liberal on all other issues.

Santorum is the one who needs to get out. Newt is the only fiscal conservative, and right now we need a fiscal conservative.
40 posted on 03/19/2012 2:45:56 AM PDT by John D
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To: VinL

Thanks a lot, Newt.


41 posted on 03/19/2012 2:50:37 AM PDT by jacknhoo (Luke 12:51. Think ye, that I am come to give peace on earth? I tell you, no; but separation.)
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To: John D

That is SUCH a lie.


42 posted on 03/19/2012 2:53:24 AM PDT by jacknhoo (Luke 12:51. Think ye, that I am come to give peace on earth? I tell you, no; but separation.)
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To: VinL; Impy; BillyBoy; fieldmarshaldj
I have yet to see any Romney signs in the suburbs. I know who I'm voting for and it ain't Romney!!! And no one I'm acquainted with is voting for Romney!!!

So Tuesday I get to finally say FUMR!!!

Yes, there are two folks who I would vote for, and only I know who I am voting for. It ain't Romney, or Ron Paul.

I'm voting the most realistic chance of beating Zero. I'm sure Big Sis is targeting my house because I happen to have his yard sign on my lawn.

But either way, I think Romney isn't going to blow out this state. There are several Rat primaries due to redistricting and because conservatives are pissed we are going out to vote.

The person who will win this State tomorrow night better get away from Southern Illinois and host a rally either in the North, West, South Suburbs of Chicago or have it at a high end hotel in Chicago.

I met Zero in 2005 and got his auto and had a 5-10 min chat about random stuff. This guy is a tyrant, in an ideal world I would have Herman Cain.

Because of such heated tensions in the last year only 3 FReepers know who I'm voting for tomorrow. And I ain't voting for Romney or Paul.

43 posted on 03/19/2012 3:05:34 AM PDT by Dengar01 (Go Bulls!!! Go Blackhawks!!!)
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To: John D
Rick Santorum: Fiscal Conservative? YES! As a matter of fact he ranks in the TOP 5 FISCAL CONSERVATIVES, earning a Grade A from the National Taxpayers Union and nver has earned lass than a Grade B... READ MORE: I have heard Sen. Rick Santorum described as a big government conservative. So I decided to take a look at this allegation. Rick Santorum was a senator for the state of Pennsylvania from 1995 to 2006. From 1991 to 1995 he was a congressman. During these 16 years he took many required votes on spending and taxes. In 1991 the GDP of the United States was 5.93 trillion. In 2006 , the last year Rick Santorum was a senator, the GDP grew to 13.91 trillion. The size of the economy more than doubled under his tenure as a senator. In 1991 more than 5,150,000 people were on the federal government payroll. In 2007 the number had decreased by approximately 20% to 4,127,000. In 1991 the federal budget was 1.324 trillion. The budget increased in 2007 to 2.728 trillion. This increase tracks the increase in the GDP of the nation. So how is a senator or congressman rated a being a fiscal conservative? The National Taxpayers Union ( for years) rates members of house and senate and gives them a grade. An “A” equates to a 4.0, a “B” 3.0, a “C” 2.0 etc. In an article on the Weekly Standard by Jeffrey Anderson and Andy Wickersham they write: ..........................​..........................​..........................​..........................​... “ Fifty senators served throughout Santorum’s two terms: 25 Republicans, 24 Democrats, and 1 Republican/Independent. On a 4-point scale (awarding 4 for an A, 3.3 for a B+, 3 for a B, 2.7 for a B-, etc.), those 50 senators’ collective grade point average (GPA) across the 12 years was 1.69 — which amounts to a C-. Meanwhile, Santorum’s GPA was 3.66 — or an A-. Santorum’s GPA placed him in the top 10 percent of senators, as he ranked 5th out of 50. Across the 12 years in question, only 6 of the 50 senators got A’s in more than half the years. Santorum was one of them. He was also one of only 7 senators who never got less than a B. (Jim Talent served only during Santorum’s final four years, but he always got less than a B, earning a B- every year and a GPA of 2.7.) Moreover, while much of the Republican party lost its fiscal footing after George W. Bush took office — although it would be erroneous to say that the Republicans were nearly as profligate as the Democrats — Santorum was the only senator who got A’s in every year of Bush’s first term. None of the other 49 senators could match Santorum’s 4.0 GPA over that span. This much alone would paint an impressive portrait of fiscal conservatism on Santorum’s part. Yet it doesn’t even take into account a crucial point: Santorum was representing Pennsylvania. ..........................​..........................​..........................​..........................​.. Santorum was not representing a red state. Now a person may quibble with a particular vote or a whole range of votes but according to the NTU his grades were exceptional. Now it seems clear that Sen. Santorum is a fisca conservative Source: http://www.redstate.com/​jamesm/2012/03/11/​rick-santorum-fiscal-conser​vative/ xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx​xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx​xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
44 posted on 03/19/2012 3:06:31 AM PDT by jacknhoo (Luke 12:51. Think ye, that I am come to give peace on earth? I tell you, no; but separation.)
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To: VinL

Left wing state folks...how do you think wins in socialist states?

P.S> Nobody wants to cut a deal. Newt should cut a deal now but he won’t.


45 posted on 03/19/2012 3:10:02 AM PDT by Mozilla (Defeat Romney first then defeat Obama)
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To: jacknhoo

Pray that it is, but it is Illinois.


46 posted on 03/19/2012 3:11:20 AM PDT by Mozilla (Defeat Romney first then defeat Obama)
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To: Ingtar

In Tennessee and Mississippi, those negative Romney (and Newt PAC) ads
_________________________________________

Phone calls 3 times a day every day for many days can turn one off...


47 posted on 03/19/2012 3:12:28 AM PDT by Tennessee Nana (Why should I vote for Bishop Romney when he hates me because I am a Christian)
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To: John D
I don't know what state you live in. But Tuesday I finally get my say and it actually matters.

4 years ago I had no choice, all RINOs but Fred Thompson.

I finally get to vote for a real conservative.

I'll just come out and say it for those who have an 8th grade education. There was a man from Illinois who lost the IL US Senate Seat to one Stephen Douglass, everyone (Trump, Fox News, Drudge, Insiders including some here) said that Abe Lincoln would never win the Presidency.

Well he lost the Senate seat and won the Presidency not once, but twice, and became one of the most famous, popular and historic Presidents in World History, not just American History.

If you are a druggie vote for Paul, if you are a country club Republican vote for Mittens, if you are delusional... if you are living in Illinois and want to see Mittens defeated please just remember, Abe Lincoln lost his bid for the Senate and became one of the greatest Presidents of all time.

If you want to be sucked into Global Warming w/ Pelosi, Right Wing Social Engineering, More Wives than a Saudi Prince, than you can vote for Candidate A). If you really want to beat Mitt you vote for Candidate B). If I get thrown off FR for doing so, so be it.

I didn't make my mind up till tonight but, sorry Mr. Speaker, I am supporting the Honorable Senator from Pennsylvania.

I think Mittens took this state for granted and we will give him what he deserves a huge loss! So, yes, I am voting for Rick. I supported Newt but losing in AL, MS and FL proves this guy can't win on home turf.

And hell freezes over before I go with Mittens.

(For retard libs at Google backing this up, my reference to the Santorum haters at Drudge and Fox doesn't mean they were actually around during the elections of 1860 and 1864. It is what you libs call a "METAPHOR"!!! )

Just had to get it out there before the freaks at the Daily Suck sent out their talking points to Pelosi, Hoyer and Reid.

48 posted on 03/19/2012 3:20:01 AM PDT by Dengar01 (Go Bulls!!! Go Blackhawks!!!)
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To: Steelfish
"Potemkin Village"!!! Finally some reality!!!

Tuesday, IL FReepers please go out and do the right thing and win this thing for Rick. If Newt wins I'll be very happy but every conservative person I know in this state including the right wing conservative candidate running for US Congress in my newly jerrymandered District is supporting Rick Santorum.

I'm sure, JR and onyx believe I have betrayed them. If so they can nuke this account. But when my future, my future children's futre is on the line I'm not going to just vote protest for Newt so Romney get's coordinated...

I've studied elections, I've taken more Poly Sci courses in college than 95% of folks on this website and can debate every damn election down to the primaries.

If we go to brokered convention Newt loses. His one strength was debates with supportive crowds. He doesn't have that. Yeah, he can out debate Zero, I'm sure all of us could, but guess what the morons watching only care about applause which is forbidden in Presidential Debates.

This has been the worst, ugliest, primary ever. I would imagine 25 - 30 percent of FReepers were zotted. Even those who support everyone here have been less active due to hostility here.

FR is suppose to be a refuge, a safe house from the liberals that surround us everyday. Not a place where we are viciously butchered for supporting Rick Santorum for the sake of being realistic!!! I would bet my house and life savings that Newt will NOT be the nominee. He laid out all the cards in his "Southern Strategy" and he lost. He has won two states; South Carolina and his "former" home state of Georgia.

Sorry, but I have to go with the guy I think that can out due Romney and that is Santorum.

49 posted on 03/19/2012 3:30:28 AM PDT by Dengar01 (Go Bulls!!! Go Blackhawks!!!)
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To: jacknhoo
That is SUCH a lie.

What is? He voted against Right to Work. A pro big union vote. He voted against cutting and voted for tax payer funded NEA. He voted to give SS benefits to illegals. He wants to use our gas taxes to subsidize Amtrak.
It sure sounds like he is a big spending, union supporting liberal to me. How am I wrong?
50 posted on 03/19/2012 3:31:47 AM PDT by John D
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