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In Illinois, Santorumís Chance at Nomination Is Slipping Away (Rick's last stand)
New York Times ^ | 03/20/2012 | Nate Silver

Posted on 03/20/2012 7:00:01 AM PDT by SeekAndFind

A quick glance at the map might tempt you into thinking that the Republican nomination is roughly an even battle between Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum, with Mr. Romney tending to prevail in the Northeast and the West, and Mr. Santorum in the Midwest and the South.

Do the math, however, and you’ll find that the nomination isn’t all that close. Mr. Romney hasn’t done that well in the South — but he also hasn’t been shut out there, winning Florida and its 50 winner-take-all delegates, and Virginia, where only Ron Paul was on the ballot alongside him. The Southern states that were poorer for Mr. Romney still tended to split their delegates in a relatively proportional way, and some of the anti-Romney vote there has gone to Newt Gingrich rather than Mr. Santorum.

In the Northeast and the West, on the other hand, Mr. Romney has often carried his states by clearer margins — like in Arizona, Washington or New Hampshire. Mr. Santorum narrowly beat Mr. Romney in Colorado, and Mr. Paul nearly did in Maine, but that has been about the extent of their incursion onto his turf.

Then, there are the delegates that few people pay attention to. From the five U.S. territories given a primary or caucus, including Puerto Rico on Sunday, Mr. Romney won 54 delegates, and Mr. Santorum won none. Mr. Romney has been endorsed by roughly 30 super delegates so far, and Mr. Santorum 2.

Mr. Santorum has been harmed by failures to qualify for the ballot or to post full-delegate slates in several states. And the Republican Party establishment, which would prefer that Mr. Romney be its nominee, has made decisions that work against Mr. Santorum in the event of delegate or vote-counting disputes.

(Excerpt) Read more at fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com ...


TOPICS: Culture/Society; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: Illinois
KEYWORDS: 1on1; bishopvspope; emptyvest; illinois; richestvsholiest; rickisusedbygope; rickisusedbymitt; santorum; santorumvsteaparty; toast

1 posted on 03/20/2012 7:00:08 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
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To: SeekAndFind

Fix is in.


2 posted on 03/20/2012 7:03:40 AM PDT by Sybeck1 (RIP Tea Party 2009-2012)
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To: SeekAndFind

And of course, Santorum tends to make statements that people will MISUNDERSTAND and his opponents WILL EXPLOIT.

He said this (IN FULL CONTEXT ):

“We need a candidate who’s going to be a fighter for freedom. Who’s going to get up and make that the central theme in this race because it is the central theme in this race,” Santorum told a crowd of about 200 voters during a rally here on Monday. “I don’t care what the unemployment rate’s going to be. Doesn’t matter to me. My campaign doesn’t hinge on unemployment rates and growth rates. It’s something more foundational that’s going on.”

Of course, Mitt’s team pulls out the entire statement and only shows video clips of the sentence:

“I don’t care what the unemployment rate’s going to be. Doesn’t matter to me.”

Santorum obviously didn’t mean that he doesn’t care about the unemployment rate in the abstract. He meant that, unlike Romney, his vision for the country is bigger than whatever the most important issue at this particular moment happens to be. But Romney’s team is going to MISCHARACTERIZE HIM and exploit these unfortunate choice of words nonetheless.


3 posted on 03/20/2012 7:03:50 AM PDT by SeekAndFind (question)
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To: SeekAndFind
UrbanSurvival.com.....

"An Election Day Oddity"

"Well, sort of. Although the page is gone now, a reader in Chicago says a local network affil web site had a page up with results already on it.
Of course, if Rick Santorum gets 32% and 987,453 votes in Illinois today to Romney's 29% and 919,993, then we would expect rioting in the streets tomorrow but of course that won't happen. (gulp...)
Aw, come on...I'm sure they were just testing the page layout with dummy data...we're just sure of it....err....right? If Newt Gagrich gets 28%? 876,937? I might be out there myself... "

4 posted on 03/20/2012 7:03:50 AM PDT by concerned about politics ("Get thee behind me, Liberal")
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To: SeekAndFind

At any rate, no sooner will have the votes been cast in Illinois, and Senator Santorum will be off to LOUISIANA, where he will tear that RINO apart in Good People Country down there, a real conservative stronghold. It is not over, it is not a last stand for Rick. Santorum has always underperformed in the polls and then over performs in the actual vote. He is playing it the right way.


5 posted on 03/20/2012 7:09:50 AM PDT by AmericanInTokyo (If Free Republic morphs into a supportive site for Romney, I'll conclude my 13 year participation.)
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To: Sybeck1
It would be tragic if we allow a liberal sh*thole like Illinois decide the GOP nominee. Delegate awards should be reformed to heavily base number of delegates awarded on the actual electoral votes delivered to a GOP nominee over the last half dozen or so election cycles.
6 posted on 03/20/2012 7:11:35 AM PDT by Vigilanteman (Obama: Fake black man. Fake Messiah. Fake American. How many fakes can you fit in one Zer0?)
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To: SeekAndFind
Santorum can't hand a snake like Romney gifts like this.

The nation is on the verge of economic collapse and Willard is still playing stupid gotcha games.

7 posted on 03/20/2012 7:14:39 AM PDT by skeeter
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To: SeekAndFind
Santorum can't hand a snake like Romney gifts like this.

The nation is on the verge of economic collapse and Willard is still playing stupid gotcha games.

8 posted on 03/20/2012 7:14:43 AM PDT by skeeter
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To: Vigilanteman

Well you make a good point about Illinois.

The same one I was making about Iowa, Minnesota, Colorado — etc. Funny, you weren’t too concerned about those “big wins” for some reason.


9 posted on 03/20/2012 7:16:32 AM PDT by C. Edmund Wright
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To: AmericanInTokyo
[it is not a last stand for Rick. Santorum has always underperformed in the polls and then over performs in the actual vote. He is playing it the right way.]

WRONG! Santorum does well in “OPEN” Primaries, where Obama Democrats are allowed to tamper with our primary. Only a complete moron, could not understand that this is how it was so close in Michigan, how Santo was 5 points behind Romney in the polls in Alabama and Mississippi, but wound up winning by a slim margin, etc.

The Democrats would love to have Santorum win, so Obama can make roadkill out of him.

10 posted on 03/20/2012 7:18:07 AM PDT by PSYCHO-FREEP (If you come to a fork in the road, take it........)
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To: SeekAndFind
All true. You could turn around and do exactly the same thing to Romney on his comment that the economy is recovering, though. You probably don't even need to take it out of context. This is where Santorum’s larger argument actually is the most important one. Where the economy and the unemployment numbers are at any given moment isn't important. It's the status of freedom in general, and what the long term prospects are given out of control government. The most significant damage Obama has done/will do won't show up till his second term. It's tough to convince people of something that hasn't arrived yet, though.
11 posted on 03/20/2012 7:18:07 AM PDT by throwback ( The object of opening the mind, as of opening the mouth, is to shut it again on something solid.)
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To: SeekAndFind

We just voted. Rick Santorum got two votes in Illinois.


12 posted on 03/20/2012 7:21:08 AM PDT by stars & stripes forever (Blessed is the nation whose God is the Lord!)
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To: C. Edmund Wright
Iowa and Colorado aren't quite the Kool-Aid drinkers which Illinois is. Even Minnesota is trending conservative.

If Democrat leaning states want more voice in delegate selection, then they should adopt the Maine and Nebraska system for awarding presidential electors: two for the statewide winner, one for the winner of each congressional district.

We had such legislation introduced in Pennsylvania with solid GOP majorities in both the House and State Senate. Governor Corbett had pledged to sign it.

The only thing which stopped it was an intense lobbying effort by Rob Gleason, our Quisling GOP Chairman, who feared it would dilute his influence. There needs to be consequences for so-called GOP leadership which works for the other team. Weighing delegate counts by electoral votes actually delivered would certainly be a step in that direction. Particular if states adopt the district system and get the delegate formula adjusted based on electoral votes which would have been awarded had the system been in place.

In general, far to much of the delegate allocation is based on remote possibility of a state to award electoral votes to the GOP candidate in the fall and far too little on realistic chances and actual past performance.

This needs to be a top priority in reforming the GOP.

13 posted on 03/20/2012 7:32:25 AM PDT by Vigilanteman (Obama: Fake black man. Fake Messiah. Fake American. How many fakes can you fit in one Zer0?)
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To: PSYCHO-FREEP
煩いな
14 posted on 03/20/2012 7:46:09 AM PDT by AmericanInTokyo (If Free Republic morphs into a supportive site for Romney, I'll conclude my 13 year participation.)
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To: AmericanInTokyo

How do Japanese keyboards work? Are there 10,000 keys? Seriously 8-)


15 posted on 03/20/2012 7:51:36 AM PDT by St_Thomas_Aquinas (Viva Christo Rey!)
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To: St_Thomas_Aquinas

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:KB_Japanese.svg


16 posted on 03/20/2012 8:06:18 AM PDT by deport (..............God Bless Texas............)
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To: Sybeck1

NYT - spinning as much as it can.

Because of the political imbecility and moral corruption of “conservatives” Romney is likely to get the nomination. Only $10 gas will get him elected.


17 posted on 03/20/2012 8:06:18 AM PDT by achilles2000 ("I'll agree to save the whales as long as we can deport the liberals")
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To: deport

That’s the letter-sound version of Japanese, right? Kanji (sp?)? What about the pictograph version?


18 posted on 03/20/2012 8:12:47 AM PDT by St_Thomas_Aquinas (Viva Christo Rey!)
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To: Sybeck1

No the fix is not in. Candidates running against Romney cannot stand up to the carpet bombing. He has a lot more money than Santorum or Gingrich. It works in the primary because of his money advantage, and it is the only way he can win, but it will not work in a general election against Obama who will have the upper hand on money.


19 posted on 03/20/2012 8:13:29 AM PDT by Roklok
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To: PSYCHO-FREEP

Barring a total economic collapse obama will make road kill out of Romney as well.

Romney brings out about as much enthusiasm as a strangulated hernia for the conservative base.

With Romney as the nominee you will lose 5-10% of the conservative base and that will cost the GOP liberals the election.


20 posted on 03/20/2012 8:27:44 AM PDT by sarge83
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To: St_Thomas_Aquinas
About exactly as many keys as on an English language PC keyboard, However, each small key has a small Japanese character (along with the ABC alphabet letter, slight below and to the right of it to be exact), which is a phonetic sound. Your word processing must be in the Japanese language mode rather than English (and easy setting by one of the keys). Combining the phonetics, for example "bei" 米, with "koku" 国, you get "beikoku" 米国, which is Japanese for "America"--then with a drop down dialogue box with tens if not hundreds of Chinese character combinations to choose from (you have to be able to read these approximate 2000 "kanji" to begin with), you make you selection and enter the appropriate word. It actually can be fast when you get good at it.
21 posted on 03/20/2012 8:30:26 AM PDT by AmericanInTokyo (If Free Republic morphs into a supportive site for Romney, I'll conclude my 13 year participation.)
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To: sarge83

There is historic precedent for this. John McCain most recently comes to mind. BUT, the “STUPID PARTY” apparently wants to throw another election and lose this one as well, so what can you say. Oh well....see you in the camps.


22 posted on 03/20/2012 8:32:17 AM PDT by AmericanInTokyo (If Free Republic morphs into a supportive site for Romney, I'll conclude my 13 year participation.)
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To: AmericanInTokyo

Thanks!


23 posted on 03/20/2012 8:43:41 AM PDT by St_Thomas_Aquinas (Viva Christo Rey!)
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To: AmericanInTokyo

A liberal is a liberal is a liberal. The GOP liberals would rather another liberal obama win than any conservative seeing the light of day. As with all liberals its about the power, control and their time at the feeding trough of public $$$.

As for the Vichy/liberal/moderates and it’s all about the Party boys, Sam Adams best summed it up when he said,” If you love wealth more than liberty, the tranquility of servitude better than the animating contest of freedom, go home from us in peace. We ask not your counsels or arms. Crouch down and lick the hands that which feed you. May your chain be set lightly upon you and posterity forget ye were our countrymen.”


24 posted on 03/20/2012 8:55:13 AM PDT by sarge83
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To: SeekAndFind
Vet the Media:

Photobucket

25 posted on 03/20/2012 9:04:28 AM PDT by Col Freeper (FR is a smorgasbord of Conservative thoughts and ideas - dig in and enjoy it to its fullest!)
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To: SeekAndFind

If indeed "Santorum’s Chance at Nomination Is Slipping Away", then by corollary Gingrich's and Paul's chances have already slipped away. Are we truly ready to concede defeat to our republican overlords? I won't vote for Romney. And if even 10% of the republicans feel as I do (perhaps an under-estimation) Romney will lose this election by a slim margin as Kerry did to Bush and McCain did to Obama. It is time to prepare your contingency plans to survive a second Obama term ...


26 posted on 03/20/2012 9:06:21 AM PDT by so_real ( "The Congress of the United States recommends and approves the Holy Bible for use in all schools.")
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To: St_Thomas_Aquinas
How do Japanese keyboards work? Are there 10,000 keys? Seriously 8-)

Little people with loads of tiny pens, I said pens not with an i.

27 posted on 03/20/2012 9:22:48 AM PDT by USS Alaska (Nuke the terrorists savages.)
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To: PSYCHO-FREEP
The Democrats would love to have Santorum win

So, you'd rather see Romney. Why hide that fact any longer? Come out of the closet.

28 posted on 03/20/2012 9:36:45 AM PDT by Kazan (Mitt Romney: The greater of two evils)
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To: SeekAndFind
It's fair game. Santorum is no political babe in the woods.

If Mitt's "I'm not concerned about the very poor. We have a safety net there. If it needs repair, I will fix it," can be exploited against him using the first part--and it was--then Santorum's “I don’t care what the unemployment rate’s going to be. Doesn’t matter to me,” can as well.

Since Santorum attacked Newt for what he might possibly say were he to become president, I've no sympathy for him.

29 posted on 03/20/2012 1:57:48 PM PDT by newzjunkey
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