Skip to comments.Tilting the Toss Ups – the Eight Races That Will Decide the Senate
Posted on 03/24/2012 2:47:43 AM PDT by SMGFan
....The battle for control fascinates us ... because there are so many intriguing races and personalities. ...we update our ratings today and move in a new direction on Congress upper chamber, it is worth stressing at the outset that no party will truly control the Senate come January 2013. There is no chance at all that Democrats or Republicans will hit the magic 60 seats required to break filibusters and thus run the Senate. Increasingly, it looks likely that the winning party will have a smaller majority than the Democrats do now (53 seats) if there is a majority at all. The tiny margin for the winning party will enable the new Senate to do what Senates do best: a whole lot of nothing (discounting talk, of course). ...
Lets assume that, at the dawn of the 113th Congress in 2013, all 67 sitting senators not up for reelection this year 30 Democrats, 37 Republicans return to serve next year (no departures for the Cabinet, the Court or the Great Beyond). Next, lets also assume that the 16 races we currently favor Democrats to win go to the Blue column, and the nine races where Republicans are favored go to the Red column. Note that we have long flipped Nebraska and North Dakota from Democratic control to Republican control; former Democratic Sen. Bob Kerreys return to Nebraska hasnt moved us a bit. Note also, as we said above, we are assuming that Maine elects King, who in effect becomes an Independent Democrat akin to Connecticuts Joe Lieberman or Vermonts Bernie Sanders. Further, our analysis has Democrats holding seats that are actually or potentially competitive, such as Ohio, Michigan and Hawaii. Finally, we presume that Democrats dont score surprising upsets in places like Arizona and Indiana.
(Excerpt) Read more at centerforpolitics.org ...
FYI, ping those interested?
Way too early for this.
Primary candidates are not chosen yet.
POTUS nominee not chosen yet.
But much will be determined by enthusiasm.
If Romney is our nominee, conservative enthusiasm will be low.
If Obama keeps panering, liberal enthusiasm will be low.
It all comes down to turnout.
I don’t know about you but I would enthusiastically vote for the proverbial yellow dog if he was running against Barack Obama. It is too early for this kind of prediction but it’s clear that control of the senate can easily go one way or the other; therefore, we need to stay on top of our game and not make any tactical mistakes that will cost us support on election day. It’s all about mistakes at this point, who makes them and who exploits them.
No; it all comes down to Fraud, and how many Illegals vote....a million Illegals voting, and 105% Registered D voters in inner-cities will be enough to turn the tide for the Progressives.
Even IF Voter ID were the law of the land, lack of enforcement in the Cities will still keep the Fraud alive.
Where is th wonder boy, RNC Chair Reince Priebus???
What are his plans for a successful 2012 Election strategy?
IMHO Michael Steele was never given credit for the 2010 House win....so who wanted him gone for 2012??? Hmmmmmm??
The reality is that they rate states to favor demonRATs when they RATs are running 10-12% behind, case in point Ohio.
They have sherrod brown, demonRAT vs Josh Mandell, R, rated as leans demonRAT when three polls taken this month have Mandell up by 8-10 points.
Every state where the election is close, they say leaning demonRAT.
Another example is nelsen in Florida, who is getting creamed by Connie Mack, they shave their prediction.
This is just an article to make the demonRATS feel better, but the election is going to have them suicidal.
It’s unlikely that the GOP will get to 60..I think 57 is about where they will end up, but to assume that the Dems will stand in lockstep and filibuster GOP legislation isn’t gonna happen. Manchen surely won’t stay with his caucus..tjhere are a few others...take a look at the list of Dems up in 2014..it’s 21, I believe...and many of them will be toast if they stay with the ultra liberal agenda..
Agree. I am pretty darn enthusiastic about voting against o’blamer. Of course I was last time too but too many others chose to stay home.
I predict a 3-4 seat gain in the Senate and a very survivable 8-10 losses in the House for the GOP.
Not too bad for a party with a badly damaged brand and a horrendously weak (presumptive) Presidential nominee.