Free Republic
Browse · Search
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

Tilting the Toss Ups the Eight Races That Will Decide the Senate
Center For Politics ^ | March 22, 2012 | Larry J. Sabato, Kyle Kondik and Geoffrey Skelley

Posted on 03/24/2012 2:47:43 AM PDT by SMGFan

....The battle for control fascinates us ... because there are so many intriguing races and personalities. ...we update our ratings today and move in a new direction on Congress’ upper chamber, it is worth stressing at the outset that no party will truly control the Senate come January 2013. There is no chance at all that Democrats or Republicans will hit the magic 60 seats required to break filibusters and thus run the Senate. Increasingly, it looks likely that the winning party will have a smaller majority than the Democrats do now (53 seats) — if there is a majority at all. The tiny margin for the winning party will enable the new Senate to do what Senates do best: a whole lot of nothing (discounting talk, of course). ...


Let’s assume that, at the dawn of the 113th Congress in 2013, all 67 sitting senators not up for reelection this year — 30 Democrats, 37 Republicans — return to serve next year (no departures for the Cabinet, the Court or the Great Beyond). Next, let’s also assume that the 16 races we currently favor Democrats to win go to the Blue column, and the nine races where Republicans are favored go to the Red column. Note that we have long flipped Nebraska and North Dakota from Democratic control to Republican control; former Democratic Sen. Bob Kerrey’s return to Nebraska hasn’t moved us a bit. Note also, as we said above, we are assuming that Maine elects King, who in effect becomes an Independent Democrat akin to Connecticut’s Joe Lieberman or Vermont’s Bernie Sanders. Further, our analysis has Democrats holding seats that are actually or potentially competitive, such as Ohio, Michigan and Hawaii. Finally, we presume that Democrats don’t score surprising upsets in places like Arizona and Indiana.

(Excerpt) Read more at ...

TOPICS: Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: senate
The Dems future lies in the hands of Pres. Obama.
1 posted on 03/24/2012 2:47:49 AM PDT by SMGFan
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | View Replies]

To: randita

FYI, ping those interested?

2 posted on 03/24/2012 3:04:58 AM PDT by SMGFan
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: smokingfrog


3 posted on 03/24/2012 3:08:27 AM PDT by smokingfrog ( sleep with one eye open (<o> ---)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: SMGFan

Way too early for this.

Primary candidates are not chosen yet.

POTUS nominee not chosen yet.

But much will be determined by enthusiasm.

If Romney is our nominee, conservative enthusiasm will be low.

If Obama keeps panering, liberal enthusiasm will be low.

It all comes down to turnout.

4 posted on 03/24/2012 3:53:16 AM PDT by Erik Latranyi (When religions have to beg the gov't for a waiver, we are already under socialism.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Erik Latranyi

I don’t know about you but I would enthusiastically vote for the proverbial yellow dog if he was running against Barack Obama. It is too early for this kind of prediction but it’s clear that control of the senate can easily go one way or the other; therefore, we need to stay on top of our game and not make any tactical mistakes that will cost us support on election day. It’s all about mistakes at this point, who makes them and who exploits them.

5 posted on 03/24/2012 4:09:50 AM PDT by RC one (may the strongest man win.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 4 | View Replies]

To: Erik Latranyi
"It all comes down to turnout."

No; it all comes down to Fraud, and how many Illegals vote....a million Illegals voting, and 105% Registered D voters in inner-cities will be enough to turn the tide for the Progressives.

Even IF Voter ID were the law of the land, lack of enforcement in the Cities will still keep the Fraud alive.

6 posted on 03/24/2012 4:46:58 AM PDT by traditional1 (Don't gotsta worry 'bout no mo'gage, don't gotsta worry 'bout no gas; Obama gonna take care o' me!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 4 | View Replies]

To: SMGFan

Where is th wonder boy, RNC Chair Reince Priebus???
What are his plans for a successful 2012 Election strategy?

IMHO Michael Steele was never given credit for the 2010 House who wanted him gone for 2012??? Hmmmmmm??

7 posted on 03/24/2012 5:16:27 AM PDT by sodpoodle (Newtrition - soul food for a starving America.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: SMGFan
When you read this entire article and their slanted analysis, the best they can come up with is 50-50.

The reality is that they rate states to favor demonRATs when they RATs are running 10-12% behind, case in point Ohio.

They have sherrod brown, demonRAT vs Josh Mandell, R, rated as leans demonRAT when three polls taken this month have Mandell up by 8-10 points.

Every state where the election is close, they say leaning demonRAT.

Another example is nelsen in Florida, who is getting creamed by Connie Mack, they shave their prediction.

This is just an article to make the demonRATS feel better, but the election is going to have them suicidal.

8 posted on 03/24/2012 7:35:12 AM PDT by USS Alaska (Nuke the terrorists savages.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: USS Alaska

It’s unlikely that the GOP will get to 60..I think 57 is about where they will end up, but to assume that the Dems will stand in lockstep and filibuster GOP legislation isn’t gonna happen. Manchen surely won’t stay with his caucus..tjhere are a few others...take a look at the list of Dems up in’s 21, I believe...and many of them will be toast if they stay with the ultra liberal agenda..

9 posted on 03/24/2012 9:13:34 AM PDT by ken5050 (The ONLY reason to support Mitt: The Mormon Tabernacle Choir will appear at the WH each Christmas)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 8 | View Replies]

To: RC one

Agree. I am pretty darn enthusiastic about voting against o’blamer. Of course I was last time too but too many others chose to stay home.

10 posted on 03/24/2012 9:29:13 AM PDT by Let's Roll (Save the world's best healthcare - REPEAL, DEFUND Obamacare!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 5 | View Replies]

To: SMGFan

I predict a 3-4 seat gain in the Senate and a very survivable 8-10 losses in the House for the GOP.

Not too bad for a party with a badly damaged brand and a horrendously weak (presumptive) Presidential nominee.

11 posted on 03/24/2012 10:12:39 AM PDT by ScottinVA (A single drop of American blood for muslims is one drop too many!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794 is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson