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Sound "expert" Tom Owen now says only 60% needed to "feel confident" (So 48% means NOTHING)
CNN ^ | 04/02/2012 | CNN wire staff

Posted on 04/02/2012 4:06:40 PM PDT by gopcharger

"Sound expert" Owen used software to compare a scream heard outside over a 911 call inside a home to a voice heard speaking into a cellphone on a 911 call. As many freepers pointed out, 48% as a "scientific certainty" of anything was a lie.

Owen two days ago:

The software compared that audio to Zimmerman's voice. It returned a 48 percent match. Owen said to reach a positive match with audio of this quality, he'd expect higher than 90 percent.

"As a result of that, you can say with reasonable scientific certainty that it's not Zimmerman," Owen says, stressing that he cannot confirm the voice as Trayvon's, because he didn't have a sample of the teen's voice to compare.

Owen now:

Owen, a forensic audio analyst and chairman emeritus of the American Board of Recorded Evidence, also said he does not believe the screams came from Zimmerman. He cited software frequently used to analyze voices in legal cases, by investigating characteristics such as pitch and the space between spoken words, that found a 48% likelihood the voice is Zimmerman's. At least 60% is necessary to feel confident two samples are from the same source, he told CNN on Monday -- meaning it's unlikely it was Zimmerman who can be heard yelling.

And they're still lying. If 60% means "confidence" it is a match then 48% does not mean "unlikely."

(Excerpt) Read more at cnn.com ...


TOPICS: Crime/Corruption
KEYWORDS: trayvonmartin

1 posted on 04/02/2012 4:06:45 PM PDT by gopcharger
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To: gopcharger

He wanted attention and realizes he is stepping in it.


2 posted on 04/02/2012 4:09:26 PM PDT by Anti-Bubba182
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To: Anti-Bubba182

This guy is so stupid he can’t even lie correctly. After all, at least if he had quoted fifty percent he would have been on par with flipping a quarter.

Good grief!


3 posted on 04/02/2012 4:18:15 PM PDT by Sigurdrifta
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To: gopcharger

If you are under duress and screaming for help your voice is going to change from speaking in a calm voice.


4 posted on 04/02/2012 4:21:58 PM PDT by DougSc
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To: gopcharger

If you are under duress and screaming for help your voice is going to change from speaking in a calm voice.


5 posted on 04/02/2012 4:22:10 PM PDT by DougSc
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To: gopcharger

And the likelihood that it was the other guy is what per-cent, exactly?

Or do we just assume that the probability that it’s Martin is over 48%?

Sorry, guys, that’s not the way science is done - it’s just about got to be one of the two, and if you’re doing voice analysis, the least that should be done is to do the same analysis on *both* voices, and assess the relative probabilities.

If that was done, and the numbers say it’s three times as likely its Martin rather than Zimmerman, that might mean something. And if it was twice as likely that it’s Zimmerman rather than Martin, that might mean something as well.

But just trying to voice match one of the guys? - sorry, too much possible error to be worth much, IMHO.


6 posted on 04/02/2012 4:23:16 PM PDT by Stosh
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To: gopcharger

I’m no expert, but...

Wouldn’t a recording of a cell phone conversation

sound different than

A recording of somebody’s voice dozens of feet away from a different cell phone’s microphone?


7 posted on 04/02/2012 4:24:23 PM PDT by lacrew (Mr. Soetoro, we regret to inform you that your race card is over the credit limit.)
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To: lacrew
Wouldn’t a recording of a cell phone conversation sound different than A recording of somebody’s voice dozens of feet away from a different cell phone’s microphone?

Yep which is why the fact they got 48% would SUPPORT that it IS Zimmerman, if this software is accurate at all and there's really no reason to believe it is anything but junk science.

8 posted on 04/02/2012 4:27:31 PM PDT by gopcharger
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To: gopcharger
Comparing a “talking quietly” voice to a person screaming for his life is comparing apples to oranges.

Military has the technology to find Osama’s voice on the phone from a satellite. Something comparable should be used not the results of this junk science that was just created this year, 2012.

9 posted on 04/02/2012 4:29:27 PM PDT by hoosiermama (Stand with God anhttp://sanfordfl.gov/inved Sarah, the Gipper and Newt will be standing next to you.)
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To: gopcharger

They are also ignoring the witness that said Zimmerman was yelling for help as he head was being pounded on the ground? An eyewitness is less reliable than this idiot?


10 posted on 04/02/2012 4:34:19 PM PDT by BushCountry (I hope the Mayans are wrong!)
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To: gopcharger
I'm amazed at how this sound expert is given instant credibility when analyzing screams overheard on a house phone, and yet the many document experts who reviewed Obama's birth records were treated to instant scorn and discredit by the same media.

-PJ

11 posted on 04/02/2012 4:34:38 PM PDT by Political Junkie Too (If you can vote for President, then your children can run for President.)
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To: gopcharger

Martin is on top of Zimmerman kicking his ass and we’re supposed to believe Martin is screaming for help?


12 posted on 04/02/2012 4:34:57 PM PDT by umgud (No Rats, No Rino's)
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To: umgud
Martin is on top of Zimmerman kicking his ass and we’re supposed to believe Martin is screaming for help?

Yes that is what we're supposed to believe, but some of us are too "stubborn."

13 posted on 04/02/2012 4:38:51 PM PDT by gopcharger
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To: All

Unless they can reanimate Trayvon’s corpse there is no way to prove it was his scream. Tom Owen is just doing his best Brian Meehan impersonation trying to get some extra court business.


14 posted on 04/02/2012 4:40:00 PM PDT by pepperhead (Kennedys float, Mary Jos don't)
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To: umgud
Martin is on top of Zimmerman kicking his ass and we’re supposed to believe Martin is screaming for help?

Agreed

15 posted on 04/02/2012 4:42:06 PM PDT by pepperhead (Kennedys float, Mary Jos don't)
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To: gopcharger

maybe the sound “expert” should ‘listen’ to the voice of the eyewitness who has said he ‘observed’ it was Zimmerman who was screaming for help.

just offhand, Does anyone know at this point if Martin had been told by family in the complex, or by others, who Zimmerman was? Wasn’t Martin supposed to be staying at his father’s fiancee’s apartment? If Martin was staying there temporarily because he was expelled from school, why was Martin’s little brother there, too? How often did Martin and his little brother stay at the fiancee’s? (Shouldn’t he have been home with Mom?) Did the fiancee know who Zimmerman was, and what did she know about the neighborhood watch program? What were her feelings about the program? Did she support it or participate? Why hasn’t she been interviewed? Did Martin’s mother know about the program? Did the father know? Either of them ever participate in a neighborhood watch program? Is there video from the 7-11 that shows Martin either inside or outside? anyone he may have been meeting up? phone record? toxicology? any details like that? anywhere? thanks in advance.


16 posted on 04/02/2012 4:44:09 PM PDT by blueplum
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To: pepperhead
This was also in the article

Yet standards set by the American Board of Recorded Evidence indicate "there must be at least 10 comparable words between two voice samples to reach a minimal decision criteria." While Zimmerman says more than that many words on his 911 call, the only one heard on the second is a cry for "help."

17 posted on 04/02/2012 4:44:39 PM PDT by gopcharger
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To: gopcharger

Who paid the “expert?”


18 posted on 04/02/2012 4:47:13 PM PDT by lonestar (It takes a village of idiots to elect a village idiot.)
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To: umgud

I assume we’re also supposed to believe, too, that the family, in all these 19 years, has no voice recordings of their son screetching in delight at something - zero, zilch, nada - to give to the “expert” for analysis?

alrighty then


19 posted on 04/02/2012 4:49:40 PM PDT by blueplum
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To: umgud
Martin is on top of Zimmerman kicking his ass and we’re supposed to believe Martin is screaming for help?

No, we're simply to overlook that minor, inconsequential point. Focus instead on the "narrative":

A 14 y.o. black boy was shot by a white 30 y.o. racist for wearing a hoodie. The black boy just went to the QuikiMart to buy skittles for his brother and was returning home when the white racist stalked him and shot him in cold blood.

20 posted on 04/02/2012 5:05:43 PM PDT by randog (Tap into America!)
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To: gopcharger

PSEUDO_”SCIENCE”_PING!


21 posted on 04/02/2012 5:09:36 PM PDT by The Duke
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To: gopcharger

The sound expert’s Resume:

Previous Employment
1. Climate change researcher.
2. Solar energy manufacturing.
3. Community organizer.


22 posted on 04/02/2012 5:23:52 PM PDT by cicero2k
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To: DougSc

yep. the voice will modulate.


23 posted on 04/02/2012 5:40:06 PM PDT by Vendome (Don't take life so seriously, you won't live through it anyway)
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To: Stosh

This is the same kind of magic computer program that constitutes “scientific” proof of global warming or climate change or whatever the Hell they are calling it today.


24 posted on 04/02/2012 5:50:18 PM PDT by E. Pluribus Unum (Over half of U.S. murders are of black people, and 90% of them are committed by other black people.)
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To: gopcharger

I think you may be misunderstanding what the man is saying because he’s couching it in the kinds of terms you usually see in courtrooms. What he’s saying is that in an audio of this quality you would expect it to match up about 90% with a voice exemplar (sample of the person’s voice) to be considered a forensic match. Since it doesn’t match 90% he’s saying that with what he considers to be a reasonable degree of scientific certainty, it is NOT Zimmerman

You can argue with his conclusion, but that’s what he’s saying


25 posted on 04/02/2012 6:25:44 PM PDT by Lex Gabba
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To: Lex Gabba
I think you may be misunderstanding what the man is saying because he’s couching it in the kinds of terms you usually see in courtrooms. What he’s saying is that in an audio of this quality you would expect it to match up about 90% with a voice exemplar (sample of the person’s voice) to be considered a forensic match. Since it doesn’t match 90% he’s saying that with what he considers to be a reasonable degree of scientific certainty, it is NOT Zimmerman You can argue with his conclusion, but that’s what he’s saying

he says in the OS article he can say with scientific certainty it is not Zim because it does not reach 90% (his own site says comparing these two samples is useless by the way)

then he told CNN that 60% would justify "confidence" that it is Zimmerman.

The guy is an idiot.

26 posted on 04/02/2012 6:37:32 PM PDT by gopcharger
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To: gopcharger

This. The basis for this experts opinion is clearly insufficient. WTH was NBC thinking?


27 posted on 04/02/2012 6:49:38 PM PDT by STJPII
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To: gopcharger

I seem to remember the press reporting weeks ago that the 911 tapes were played for Martin’s father. His father said that the voice screaming for help was not his son’s voice.


28 posted on 04/02/2012 8:23:58 PM PDT by SunTzuWu
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