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Ipsos: 85%-99% chance of Obama winning
Washington Examiner ^ | 040312 | Paul Bedard

Posted on 04/03/2012 1:43:21 PM PDT by Fred

Mitt Romney’s slow but seemingly successful trudge to the GOP nomination aside, President Obama is a virtual lock to win a second term, according to a blockbuster election analysis by Ipsos. The bottom line, said Ipsos’ polling director Clifford Young: If Obama’s weak approval rating stays at 47 percent, there is an 85 percent chance he wins reelection. Should it rise to 50 percent or better, which is the goal of the Obama-Biden campaign, he stands a 99 percent chance of winning.

“The Republican primaries are nothing more than an interesting side-show to an eventual Obama victory,” said Young, managing director of Ipsos Public Affairs’ U.S. polling. He tells Secrets: “Obama is the odds-on favorite barring some unforeseen random event. As such, we really should not be asking who will win the presidency but instead who will hold the House and Senate and will Obama be able to govern?”

(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonexaminer.com ...


TOPICS: Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: gingrich; obamney; romney; santorum
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and these guys will finish Romney off - americanselect.org
1 posted on 04/03/2012 1:43:32 PM PDT by Fred
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To: Fred

Ipsos polling is as left as you can get.


2 posted on 04/03/2012 1:47:11 PM PDT by CaptainK (...please make it stop. Shake a can of pennies at it.)
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To: Fred

The same media said Obama could not win in 2008 because his primary went into June, right?


3 posted on 04/03/2012 1:47:13 PM PDT by ilgipper
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To: Fred

What if gas goes to $8 a gallon.

Oh yeuah, that means Obama wins.


4 posted on 04/03/2012 1:49:18 PM PDT by Freddd (No PA Engineers)
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To: Fred

5 posted on 04/03/2012 1:50:15 PM PDT by Doogle (((USAF.68-73..8th TFW Ubon Thailand..never store a threat you should have eliminated)))
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To: Fred

I don’t know what Ipsos is but I still beleive BHO is going to win and win big.
Romney can not beat BHO because he is in essence the same.


6 posted on 04/03/2012 1:51:06 PM PDT by svcw (If one living cell on another planet is life, why isn't it life in the womb?)
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To: Fred
Well maybe. This is not a poll, it is a computer model based on a collection of polls over time. We know from the climate change fiasco how well computer models predict the future.

I agre with the conclusion however, that winning the Congress is essential, maybe as much as winning the White House.

7 posted on 04/03/2012 1:51:10 PM PDT by hinckley buzzard
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To: hinckley buzzard

The problem with NOT winning the Presidency is Executive Orders. This guy will do whatever he can by EO and the lamestream media will not care one bit. As a matter of fact, they will probably APPLAUD it.


8 posted on 04/03/2012 1:56:04 PM PDT by woweeitsme
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To: Fred

At this time in 1980, Reagan was 20 points behind Carter.


9 posted on 04/03/2012 1:56:50 PM PDT by Signalman
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To: All

The administration has been looking for a way to stir financial support ever since the 41% approval poll came out a few weeks ago. Since then, we’ve had the “war on women” and “the war on blacks” manufactured to get his numbers up.


10 posted on 04/03/2012 2:01:19 PM PDT by newnhdad (Where will you be during the Election Riots of 2012/2013?)
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To: Fred

Obama doesn’t have to win, the GOP E is GIVING it to him with their push for LIBERAL Romney. He can never overcome his record, he doesn’t even have the personality to do it. He is the GOP E’s version of ZERO.

No one can be this stupid, so I have to assume it was done deliberately as some ‘so called’ conservative leaders are even falling like dominoes for Zero. And this voter and others refuse to fall for their game they have been playing for years that got us here. Each of their ‘picks’ over the years have been flat. McCain didn’t even try - lackluster DELIBERATELY because it was thought for sure Sarah was going to make them/GOP E win. It is all by design this election - they are giving it away.


11 posted on 04/03/2012 2:02:30 PM PDT by presently no screen name
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To: Fred
IPSOS!? LOL.....divide by a factor of ten and that will be more realistic....they really put on the gravy.

Tranlation: 8.5-9.9% chance of winning.

12 posted on 04/03/2012 2:02:43 PM PDT by DCBryan1 (Tagline removed at the request of someone who doesn't "get" Monty Python or Shakespeare.)
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To: Fred

Will ISPOS allow me to place a bet against their prediction? Since they are 85% sure, are they willing to give me 6 to 1 odds?


13 posted on 04/03/2012 2:04:13 PM PDT by entropy12 (Every tax payer now owes $150,000 towards the national debt. Greek tragedy on the way here.)
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To: Fred

Everyone knows Pepsi-lite is better for you than Pepsi. Yet Pepsi outsells Pepsi-lite...everywhere...all the time.

Obama will wipe the floor with his Caucasian mini-me....

A poor imitation of anything engenders nothing but disrespect in most people


14 posted on 04/03/2012 2:06:27 PM PDT by mo (If you understand, no explanation is needed. If you don't understand, no explanation is possible.)
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To: Fred
I, too, think Obama will be easily reelected, and I've been posting my prediction since last March.

Five Reasons:

(1) The economy will slowly improve until election day.

(2) A small majority of eligible USA voters support the European Socialist political model - and their voter participation rate has slowly increased for 4 straight presidential elections.

(3) Conservatives have had NO national political leadership since Newt Gingrich self-destructed in 1998.

(4) America accepts 1 million new citizens each year, and 75% of them vote for the Democratic Party.

(5) The Hard Left MSM has relentlessly, viciously, and brilliantly assaulted the Republican Party for 40 years - yet, the GOP still has NO organized national strategy to counter this assault.

15 posted on 04/03/2012 2:07:30 PM PDT by zeestephen
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To: Fred

In the actual election?
Maybe.

In an honest election?
No way!


16 posted on 04/03/2012 2:10:02 PM PDT by null and void (Day 1169 of America's ObamaVacation from reality [Heroes aren't made, Frank, they're cornered...])
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To: Signalman
At this time in 1980, Reagan was 20 points behind Carter.

Unfortunately, as a candidate and politician, Mitt Romney isn't anything close to Reagan. The last time a party was as unenthusiastic about its candidate as the Republicans are about Romney, the Democrats nominated Walter Mondale. They were whistling by the graveyard then, too.

17 posted on 04/03/2012 2:11:14 PM PDT by CommerceComet (If Mitt can leave the GOP to protest Reagan, why can't I do the same in protest of Romney?)
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To: entropy12
Re: Will Ipsos Give You 6 To 1 Odds?

No.

But the real gamblers at InTrade.com will give you 60-40 odds that Obama will be reelected.

18 posted on 04/03/2012 2:15:28 PM PDT by zeestephen
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To: Signalman

>>At this time in 1980, Reagan was 20 points behind Carter.

True, but Romney is no Reagan.


19 posted on 04/03/2012 2:23:39 PM PDT by vikingd00d (chown -R us ./base)
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To: CommerceComet

Whether Obama wins or not really has very little to do with Mitt. The entire election will be about Obama and whether voters want to give him another 4 years or not. My guess is that the answer will be an overwhelming “NO”.


20 posted on 04/03/2012 2:28:00 PM PDT by tatown ( FUMD, FUAC, and FUGB)
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To: CaptainK

I thought Ipsos was something you gave to Greeks in order to make them throw up...


21 posted on 04/03/2012 2:39:49 PM PDT by Buckeye McFrog
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To: Fred

How does Ipsos explain the 2010 midterms?


22 posted on 04/03/2012 2:45:28 PM PDT by kabar
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To: Fred

If Romney is the nominee, he WILL lose to Obummer because the people realise he is the SAME crap so why switch horses now?


23 posted on 04/03/2012 2:46:47 PM PDT by New Jersey Realist (America: home of the free because of the brave)
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To: Fred

Yeah, and Dewey beat Truman, too. Oh, wait . . .


24 posted on 04/03/2012 2:48:53 PM PDT by BfloGuy (The final outcome of the credit expansion is general impoverishment.)
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To: svcw
Romney can not beat BHO because he is in essence the same.

You mean that Romney is a Marxist radical who hates this country, would continue out of control spending, supports a a group of czars that are strangling this country thru regulation, would restrict US energy production, continue to divide this country along racial and ethnic lines, and compromise US security by giving the Russians what they want? If you think that Romney is essentially the same as Obama, you are ceritifiable.

25 posted on 04/03/2012 2:51:02 PM PDT by kabar
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To: Fred

Leftists aren’t embarrased to publicly display their stupidity or wear their pants around their knees.


26 posted on 04/03/2012 3:00:01 PM PDT by sergeantdave
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To: Fred

Romney can win if you guys will quit beating on him...


27 posted on 04/03/2012 3:03:58 PM PDT by CalTexan
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To: kabar

Both support gun grabbers
Both support abortion
Both support the homosexual agenda
Both support big government
Both support government mandates
Both support man made global warming
Both support working with democrats
Both support the language of the left
Both support welfare
Yep, more alike than you apparently are willing to admit.


28 posted on 04/03/2012 3:05:40 PM PDT by svcw (If one living cell on another planet is life, why isn't it life in the womb?)
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To: kabar

Anyone who says Romney is the same as Obama is definitely trying to demotivate the Republican base.

Romney is not half the man Gingrich is, but he is ten times the man Obama is.


29 posted on 04/03/2012 3:09:28 PM PDT by plenipotentiary (Obama was a BRITISH SUBJECT at birth, passed to him via Pops, can't be NBC)
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To: CommerceComet

I don’t remember too many republicans being all that fired-up when Bob Dole was the standard-bearer.


30 posted on 04/03/2012 3:11:00 PM PDT by Tallguy (It's all 'Fun and Games' until somebody loses an eye!)
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To: hinckley buzzard

I can only think of a handful of polls that accurately reflect reality. Garbage In, Garbage Out.


31 posted on 04/03/2012 3:13:21 PM PDT by Tallguy (It's all 'Fun and Games' until somebody loses an eye!)
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To: Doogle

I dont understand Ipsos’ logic here. The historical rule of thumb is that the incumbant must have at least 50% support going in to the final month or he is in big trouble. This is because undecideds almost always break against the incumbent.

“50% means 99% chance” doesn’t square with past experience.


32 posted on 04/03/2012 3:16:26 PM PDT by Gideon7
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To: Gideon7

there is no logic, all BS


33 posted on 04/03/2012 3:22:03 PM PDT by Doogle (((USAF.68-73..8th TFW Ubon Thailand..never store a threat you should have eliminated)))
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To: vikingd00d

BUT Odungo is worst than Carter


34 posted on 04/03/2012 3:24:35 PM PDT by Doogle (((USAF.68-73..8th TFW Ubon Thailand..never store a threat you should have eliminated)))
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To: plenipotentiary

“Romney is not half the man Gingrich is, but he is ten times the man Obama is.”

He may be 10 times the man but the fact is that he has the same stances on the issues. ( socialized healthcare, planned parenthood, global warming, class warfare based tax system, forcing Catholic hospitals to violate their faith, appointing liberal judges, gay marriage...etc).

Listening to Hannity try to split the hairs between Romneycare and Obamacare was absolutely laughable and deeply saddening at the same time. Government overreach and tyranny are overreach and tyranny whether it comes from the nation’s capital or the state capitals.

Romney is proving himself to be someone who will say anything, and spend anything to get elected.

To put it simply, Romney is a turd that no one is excited to support. Being the “not Obama” candidate ( even though he really is) may be enough to win some RINO votes and endorsements, but isn’t going to excite the GOP base and the general electorate.

I hate to say it, but Romney will lose in a Carteresque fashion. The GOP-E is forcing another Dole/McCain down the throats of the party. We know how that story ends.


35 posted on 04/03/2012 3:49:03 PM PDT by vmivol00 (I won't be reconstructed.)
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To: plenipotentiary
Anyone who says Romney is the same as Obama is definitely trying to demotivate the Republican base.

bull pies

Listen you wanta be a Romneybot, be my guest.

Those of us who oppose Romney do so because we are sick and tired of democrat lite candidates.

I will no longer vote for the lesser of two democrat liberal socialist candidates.

36 posted on 04/03/2012 3:51:01 PM PDT by svcw (If one living cell on another planet is life, why isn't it life in the womb?)
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To: Fred

If true, we can kiss the economy good-bye.

Five more years of Obama will see Americans lining up around the block for their allotment of toilet paper and cardboard shoes.


37 posted on 04/03/2012 3:55:49 PM PDT by Jack Hammer
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To: Buckeye McFrog

LOL close enough to not be a coincident


38 posted on 04/03/2012 4:09:50 PM PDT by CaptainK (...please make it stop. Shake a can of pennies at it.)
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To: svcw
Anybody but Obama. This country can't survive four more years of him in the WH. That is what is at stake.

The list you provided is nonsense.

39 posted on 04/03/2012 4:35:04 PM PDT by kabar
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To: zeestephen
I suspect you're right.

But as I see it, it comes down to:

1) The media are solidly behind Obama and aren't going to report anything that hurts his candidacy.

2) Republicans don't have a good candidate -- or even just a widely agreed-on candidate.

They're not saying Obama will win big, though. They're saying it's very likely he will win. Those aren't always the same thing.

40 posted on 04/03/2012 4:47:31 PM PDT by x
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To: kabar

You say it’s nonsense - tell me what part is incorrect.


41 posted on 04/03/2012 4:58:37 PM PDT by svcw (If one living cell on another planet is life, why isn't it life in the womb?)
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To: Tallguy
I don’t remember too many republicans being all that fired-up when Bob Dole was the standard-bearer.

But how many Republicans did you hear say that under no circumstances would they vote for Bob Dole? I have at least a dozen people in my circle of acquaintances who have voted for Republican candidates their entire lives but who won't vote for Romney.

42 posted on 04/03/2012 5:20:47 PM PDT by CommerceComet (If Mitt can leave the GOP to protest Reagan, why can't I do the same in protest of Romney?)
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To: Fred

I don’t trust anything that predicts elections with a 99% chance.

That’s like Saddam’s Iraq or Kim Jong-Un’s North Korea for electioneering.


43 posted on 04/03/2012 7:47:36 PM PDT by gogogodzilla (Live free or die!)
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To: svcw

All of it.


44 posted on 04/03/2012 9:04:41 PM PDT by kabar
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To: kabar

So you are actually saying that Romney does not support:
gun grabbers
abortion
the homosexual agenda
big government
government mandates
man made global warming
working with democrats
the language of the left
welfare
Wow, you really have not been paying attention to his words.


45 posted on 04/03/2012 10:15:48 PM PDT by svcw (If one living cell on another planet is life, why isn't it life in the womb?)
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To: CalTexan
Romney can win if you guys will quit beating on him...

And then what? In what way is Romney any different than Obama?

If you discount what Romney says, and go by his record, what are the major differences between Romney and Obama?

No one I have ever asked has been able to answer. "It's obvious!" "Don't be silly!" and such are not answers. I'm looking for specific, concrete ways in which Romney's record is different from Obama.

Difficulty: Talking =/= Record

46 posted on 04/03/2012 10:22:50 PM PDT by mountainbunny (Seamus Sez: "Good dogs don't let their masters vote for Mitt!")
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To: mountainbunny

There aren’t any.


47 posted on 04/03/2012 11:13:13 PM PDT by svcw (If one living cell on another planet is life, why isn't it life in the womb?)
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To: Fred

What good does all the pessimism do ? FR is now a home for unhappy morticians.

I dont care who runs Obama is gonna lose big time


48 posted on 04/03/2012 11:16:33 PM PDT by woofie (It takes three villages and a forest of woodland creatures to raise a child in Obamaville)
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To: svcw
It is not just me that is saying that, it is Romney.

Read his policy positions on the issues. They are clearly different than Obama's whether it is abortion, the 2nd amendment, immigration, etc.

49 posted on 04/04/2012 7:51:34 AM PDT by kabar
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To: kabar

Ok, you are correct his (today’s) policy positions are different than BHO.
Silly me I was just going by decades of his words, actions, and governance.
A piece of paper in a campaign is way important than the way Romney has lived his life both politically and privately.


50 posted on 04/04/2012 8:07:09 AM PDT by svcw (If one living cell on another planet is life, why isn't it life in the womb?)
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