Skip to comments.Ipsos: 85%-99% chance of Obama winning
Posted on 04/03/2012 1:43:21 PM PDT by Fred
Mitt Romneys slow but seemingly successful trudge to the GOP nomination aside, President Obama is a virtual lock to win a second term, according to a blockbuster election analysis by Ipsos. The bottom line, said Ipsos polling director Clifford Young: If Obamas weak approval rating stays at 47 percent, there is an 85 percent chance he wins reelection. Should it rise to 50 percent or better, which is the goal of the Obama-Biden campaign, he stands a 99 percent chance of winning.
The Republican primaries are nothing more than an interesting side-show to an eventual Obama victory, said Young, managing director of Ipsos Public Affairs U.S. polling. He tells Secrets: Obama is the odds-on favorite barring some unforeseen random event. As such, we really should not be asking who will win the presidency but instead who will hold the House and Senate and will Obama be able to govern?
(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonexaminer.com ...
Ipsos polling is as left as you can get.
The same media said Obama could not win in 2008 because his primary went into June, right?
What if gas goes to $8 a gallon.
Oh yeuah, that means Obama wins.
I don’t know what Ipsos is but I still beleive BHO is going to win and win big.
Romney can not beat BHO because he is in essence the same.
I agre with the conclusion however, that winning the Congress is essential, maybe as much as winning the White House.
The problem with NOT winning the Presidency is Executive Orders. This guy will do whatever he can by EO and the lamestream media will not care one bit. As a matter of fact, they will probably APPLAUD it.
At this time in 1980, Reagan was 20 points behind Carter.
The administration has been looking for a way to stir financial support ever since the 41% approval poll came out a few weeks ago. Since then, we’ve had the “war on women” and “the war on blacks” manufactured to get his numbers up.
Obama doesn’t have to win, the GOP E is GIVING it to him with their push for LIBERAL Romney. He can never overcome his record, he doesn’t even have the personality to do it. He is the GOP E’s version of ZERO.
No one can be this stupid, so I have to assume it was done deliberately as some ‘so called’ conservative leaders are even falling like dominoes for Zero. And this voter and others refuse to fall for their game they have been playing for years that got us here. Each of their ‘picks’ over the years have been flat. McCain didn’t even try - lackluster DELIBERATELY because it was thought for sure Sarah was going to make them/GOP E win. It is all by design this election - they are giving it away.
Tranlation: 8.5-9.9% chance of winning.
Will ISPOS allow me to place a bet against their prediction? Since they are 85% sure, are they willing to give me 6 to 1 odds?
Everyone knows Pepsi-lite is better for you than Pepsi. Yet Pepsi outsells Pepsi-lite...everywhere...all the time.
Obama will wipe the floor with his Caucasian mini-me....
A poor imitation of anything engenders nothing but disrespect in most people
(1) The economy will slowly improve until election day.
(2) A small majority of eligible USA voters support the European Socialist political model - and their voter participation rate has slowly increased for 4 straight presidential elections.
(3) Conservatives have had NO national political leadership since Newt Gingrich self-destructed in 1998.
(4) America accepts 1 million new citizens each year, and 75% of them vote for the Democratic Party.
(5) The Hard Left MSM has relentlessly, viciously, and brilliantly assaulted the Republican Party for 40 years - yet, the GOP still has NO organized national strategy to counter this assault.
In the actual election?
In an honest election?
Unfortunately, as a candidate and politician, Mitt Romney isn't anything close to Reagan. The last time a party was as unenthusiastic about its candidate as the Republicans are about Romney, the Democrats nominated Walter Mondale. They were whistling by the graveyard then, too.
But the real gamblers at InTrade.com will give you 60-40 odds that Obama will be reelected.
>>At this time in 1980, Reagan was 20 points behind Carter.
True, but Romney is no Reagan.
Whether Obama wins or not really has very little to do with Mitt. The entire election will be about Obama and whether voters want to give him another 4 years or not. My guess is that the answer will be an overwhelming “NO”.
I thought Ipsos was something you gave to Greeks in order to make them throw up...
How does Ipsos explain the 2010 midterms?
If Romney is the nominee, he WILL lose to Obummer because the people realise he is the SAME crap so why switch horses now?
Yeah, and Dewey beat Truman, too. Oh, wait . . .
You mean that Romney is a Marxist radical who hates this country, would continue out of control spending, supports a a group of czars that are strangling this country thru regulation, would restrict US energy production, continue to divide this country along racial and ethnic lines, and compromise US security by giving the Russians what they want? If you think that Romney is essentially the same as Obama, you are ceritifiable.
Leftists aren’t embarrased to publicly display their stupidity or wear their pants around their knees.
Romney can win if you guys will quit beating on him...
Both support gun grabbers
Both support abortion
Both support the homosexual agenda
Both support big government
Both support government mandates
Both support man made global warming
Both support working with democrats
Both support the language of the left
Both support welfare
Yep, more alike than you apparently are willing to admit.
Anyone who says Romney is the same as Obama is definitely trying to demotivate the Republican base.
Romney is not half the man Gingrich is, but he is ten times the man Obama is.
I don’t remember too many republicans being all that fired-up when Bob Dole was the standard-bearer.
I can only think of a handful of polls that accurately reflect reality. Garbage In, Garbage Out.
I dont understand Ipsos’ logic here. The historical rule of thumb is that the incumbant must have at least 50% support going in to the final month or he is in big trouble. This is because undecideds almost always break against the incumbent.
“50% means 99% chance” doesn’t square with past experience.
there is no logic, all BS
BUT Odungo is worst than Carter
“Romney is not half the man Gingrich is, but he is ten times the man Obama is.”
He may be 10 times the man but the fact is that he has the same stances on the issues. ( socialized healthcare, planned parenthood, global warming, class warfare based tax system, forcing Catholic hospitals to violate their faith, appointing liberal judges, gay marriage...etc).
Listening to Hannity try to split the hairs between Romneycare and Obamacare was absolutely laughable and deeply saddening at the same time. Government overreach and tyranny are overreach and tyranny whether it comes from the nation’s capital or the state capitals.
Romney is proving himself to be someone who will say anything, and spend anything to get elected.
To put it simply, Romney is a turd that no one is excited to support. Being the “not Obama” candidate ( even though he really is) may be enough to win some RINO votes and endorsements, but isn’t going to excite the GOP base and the general electorate.
I hate to say it, but Romney will lose in a Carteresque fashion. The GOP-E is forcing another Dole/McCain down the throats of the party. We know how that story ends.
Listen you wanta be a Romneybot, be my guest.
Those of us who oppose Romney do so because we are sick and tired of democrat lite candidates.
I will no longer vote for the lesser of two democrat liberal socialist candidates.
If true, we can kiss the economy good-bye.
Five more years of Obama will see Americans lining up around the block for their allotment of toilet paper and cardboard shoes.
LOL close enough to not be a coincident
The list you provided is nonsense.
But as I see it, it comes down to:
1) The media are solidly behind Obama and aren't going to report anything that hurts his candidacy.
2) Republicans don't have a good candidate -- or even just a widely agreed-on candidate.
They're not saying Obama will win big, though. They're saying it's very likely he will win. Those aren't always the same thing.
You say it’s nonsense - tell me what part is incorrect.
But how many Republicans did you hear say that under no circumstances would they vote for Bob Dole? I have at least a dozen people in my circle of acquaintances who have voted for Republican candidates their entire lives but who won't vote for Romney.
I don’t trust anything that predicts elections with a 99% chance.
That’s like Saddam’s Iraq or Kim Jong-Un’s North Korea for electioneering.
All of it.
So you are actually saying that Romney does not support:
the homosexual agenda
man made global warming
working with democrats
the language of the left
Wow, you really have not been paying attention to his words.
And then what? In what way is Romney any different than Obama?
If you discount what Romney says, and go by his record, what are the major differences between Romney and Obama?
No one I have ever asked has been able to answer. "It's obvious!" "Don't be silly!" and such are not answers. I'm looking for specific, concrete ways in which Romney's record is different from Obama.
Difficulty: Talking =/= Record
There aren’t any.
What good does all the pessimism do ? FR is now a home for unhappy morticians.
I dont care who runs Obama is gonna lose big time
Ok, you are correct his (today’s) policy positions are different than BHO.
Silly me I was just going by decades of his words, actions, and governance.
A piece of paper in a campaign is way important than the way Romney has lived his life both politically and privately.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.