Posted on 04/03/2012 7:18:54 PM PDT by blam
Something Strange: The Economy Is Behaving Badly In The Least Expected Way
Joe Weisenthal
April 3, 2012, 8:56 PM
Looking back over the latest few weeks of economy data, something stands out: Things are playing out almost 100% different than what people expected.
Think back to mid-to-late February. There were two competing trends. Housing appeared to be creaking back to life, construction was generally jumping, and car sales were surging month after month. Basically, all the "big" animal spirits stuff seemed to be happening.
But there was a counter-force in the form of gasoline prices. They were surging, and the big fear is that just as things were creaking back to life, gasoline prices would come in and slug the consumer.
As we pointed out, the fact that there was a duel between the big stuff (cars and houses on one side) and the day-to-day stuff (gasoline prices threatening the consumer) is what made the current environment very different form 2007-2008, the last time the economy went into recession.
We thought we'd be watching closely the high-frequency indicators, like same-store sales numbers and initial claims to get the first signs of problems, but that hasn't been how things have developed at all.
The weekly retail data has been great. Today's number was one of the best in a year. We had a few dicey weeks right when the gas surged, but everything's hunky dory on this front.
On the other hand, the big stuff has been not good.
Every single piece of recent housing data has been a miss.
And then today, it came out that the March auto sales numbers dipped sharply from February.
Also, construction numbers beyond housing have been poor.
So basically, the high-frequency consumer stuff has been fine, and the big money,
(snip)
(Excerpt) Read more at businessinsider.com ...
Perhaps retail sales are up because everything costs 20 percent more.
I’d say that inflation is taking its toll! Of course those in charge keep contending that inflation is not happening but unfortunately, those in the real world are paying through the nose. Gas prices are the prominent culprit but other things are contributing.
The Obama administration and their lackeys continue to shout that the economy is doing just fine - as folks keep losing out due to inflation. Soldier on...
hey..no independent thought or logic allowed !
Good one!
Retail sales are up because the cost of petrochemicals is up. This is pretty basic stuff.
Retail sales are up because the cost of petrochemicals is up. This is pretty basic stuff.
Communist economies always fail, but the muslim president of the US will come out of it as the new dictator of the former US.
>everything costs 20 percent more
or, more sneaky the box is 20% smaller for the same price:(
The big lie is that OPEC regulates supply and thus price.
At every turn Obama has played into their hands. Got to pay them back for the campaign donations.
Consumers are now conditioned to monitor the price of gas, (after all it is posted on every other street corner) to
to determine the state of the economy. Kind of like looking at the DOW to determine the state of the stock market.
IMHO Prices are skyrocketing. Go out and buy anything these days.
a regular jar of JIF peanut butter was $7.59 at Kroger today.
holy shat.
Wow, that is some expensive nuts!
expensive nuts is right Deagle - hell i’d be laughing but prices are killing us in flyover - they’re very clearly surging. I exclaimed in the aisle “holy sh-t”... and TWO old women replied to me in agreement.
This obama guy is out to ruin our nation.
Not laughing here... Every time I go grocery shopping I have a minor heart attack! Really it is getting bad - I’ve noticed that prices have risen 10% or more lately and since inflation is supposedly only 3% - what the heck!
Folks on a pension or limited income are suffering no doubt!. No problem though, our wonderful President keeps saying things are getting better...ha.
Ask 10 economists what the trend is and get 10 different answers.
The predictors are lousy because the government numbers being published are mostly lies. They claim unemployment is down because they adjusted the base line. The truth us more people are out of work than ever before. Credit is still tight. Another wave of foreclosures is coming. There is no turn around. You would never know it listening to O and his cronies
Jimah is smiling widely.
The auto companies pumped their supply lines full in Q4. That made it seem like lots of cars were being sold.
They are still on the lots.
You cannot push on a string.
I’ve taken to buying snack foods and sodas at Dollar General, still $1.25 for a two liter bottle name brand and $2.00 a regular sized bag for certain name brand snack foods. Food Lion has decent canned vegetables on sale 10 for $10.00. Combine it with rice, filling and cheap, enough to feed two people for less than three dollars.
I only buy what’s on sale and am not shy about changing my buying habits completely to stay within budget, but even still, it’s up 30% since two years ago, with less food and lower quality.
It gets to me every now and then and I’ll splurge on a decent steak dinner in an OK restaurant, that’s pushing $20.00 now, for what I still regard as a $12.00 meal.
New York state income tax revenues are also slowing down over the last six months (it's another one of the Big Five).
What's interesting is that in nearly all the states, sales tax revenue is UP, and not just a little bit.
I''m wondering if this is reflecting inflation, and people spending money they don't have because they're being told that "good times are here again".
The federales also say that inflation is low, because the federales adjusted the components to ignore the costs of energy and food. Or maybe it was energy and housing, whatever. But I have a question that's been on my mind- what is a good index to use to get an idea of the real decline in the value of the US dollar? Forget the gov't number on inflation, because of the afore-mentioned rejiggering. Gold has it's own life, and ups and downs. Maybe some commodity index? Anyone have any ideas?
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