Skip to comments.Rasmussen: Obama leads Romney in key swing states
Posted on 04/06/2012 4:21:57 PM PDT by Free ThinkerNY
President Obama leads Mitt Romney in four states that will be critical in determining the outcome of the 2012 election, according to a survey from conservative polling outlet Rasmussen released on Friday.
Obama leads Romney 47 percent to 44 percent in combined polling from Florida, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia.
The poll has a 4.5 percent margin of error.
Obama will need to win about half of the electoral votes provided by Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Virginia, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, Iowa, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and New Hampshire, if he is to secure a second term.
(Excerpt) Read more at thehill.com ...
Then America will divide if all is lost... and in that division will come rebirth.
That`s the hope I hold if America does go down.
Even a 7 year-old had it right on Sean Hannity today. He called Romney, Obama-light!!
Im guessing the Republican liberal will be tempted to move further left in an effort to beat his opponent.
Yeah, right before he wins and moves even farther to the left.
Okay, if you wish to dispute my points and yet are too lazy to do your own research I guess I will have further demonstrate how entirely wrong you are:
Here are the final pre-election 2010 congressional generic match up numbers taken from RCP:
Rasmussen has the Republicans with a +12 generic ballot spread spread over the Democrats (which is EXACTLY what I told you already). EVERYONE in the world other than head-in-the-sand lefties knew the GOP would pick up 40-60 seats in the House - with most suggesting around a 50 seat pick up. Rasmussen's polling was some of the evidence used to predict this. Rasmussen had predicted about a 52 seat House gain for Republicans - which would easily have resulted in a GOP House majority. It turned out to be more, but he was clearly on the right track and was correct that the Dem's were about to get the boot.
Here was Stu Rothenberg predicting Republicans winning at least 50 seats in the House.
BULLETIN Stu Rothenberg, The Rothenberg Political Report: Democrats seem likely to lose at least 50 seats, but the GOPs ceiling for gains is much harder to predict. With close to 100 Democratic seats in play, GOP gains of five or six dozen seats are not at all impossible. House Democrats appear headed for a historic bloodbath, with losses probably exceeding 1994s 52 seats. We estimate likely GOP House gains at 55 to 65 seats, with gains at or above 70 seats possible.
The liberal Nate Silver also almost predicted these outcomes very accurately. Here were his predictions in the NY Times on 2010 based on polling:
The 538 model had forecast a net pickup of 7 seats by the Republicans in the Senate, but the outcome was a pickup of 6 seats.
Our forecasting model, which is based on a consensus of indicators including generic ballot polling, polling of local districts, expert forecasts, and fund-raising data, now predicts an average Republican net gain of 54 seats (up one from 53 seats in last nights forecast), and a median net Republican gain of 55 seats. These figures would exceed the 52 seats that Republicans won from Democrats in the 1994 midterms. In final vote tallys as of December 10, 2010, the Republicans had a net gain of 63 seats in the House, 8 more than the total predicted on election eve though still within the reported confidence interval
Of the 37 gubernatorial races, FiveThirtyEight correctly predicted the winner of 36. Only in Illinois, in which the Democratic candidate Pat Quinn defeated the Republican Bill Brady 46.6% to 46.1%, was the FiveThirtyEight prediction wrong by just half a percentage point.
Charlie Cook and Larry Sabato were also very close in their predictions of a GOP take over of the House with around 50 seats, a 6-8 Senate seat pickup, and EVERYONE basically agreed that at the state legislature level the Democrats were going to lose at least 700 seats (the number ended up exceeding even that because so many Democrats defected and became Republicans shortly after the massacre
Did you want me to do your research for Cook and Sabato as well? It shouldn't hard to find.
I know theres ras-bots who love their rat hero, but he is very fallible.
This is what everyone says when A)they don't like the polling results or B) refuse to accept polling is pretty darn accurate and getting better all the time.
General election and generic polling is remarkably accurate actually - especially when you use a tool like the RCP average. Lots of people refuse to believe this, but the facts are what they are. Primary polling tends to be less accurate - especially when dealing with caucuses, but it is also getting better all the time. The Dem outfit PPP nailed Wisconsin almost perfectly by predicting a Romney 7 point win. Other pollsters were showing the same, a 7 or 8 point Willard victory.
As the 2010 midterms came near, almost every serious analyst (who wasn't so partisan their analysis could be safely ingored) know the Republicans would win the House, come up with about 6-8 Seats in the Senate (could have been 10 had we not run crappy candidates like Christine O Donnell, Sharon Angle, McMahon, etc), and would romp the Democrats even worse at the local level. This was no secret. If you were surprised at the outcome, you weren't following the news.
We get to vote for a rino to replace a radical socialist anti American racist traitor.
Yeah I know ....same thing /sarc
At least voting for Obama offers the convenience of staying home and not voting at all while puffing about the purity of our principles.
Romney is a self proclaimed Progressive. Romney's staff visited the WH dozens of times to help Obama craft ObamaCare. Are you sure Romney is just a RINO or is he left of RINO? Remember, Romney ran left of Ted Kennedy.
“He is polling below 50 percent as an incumbent”
Rest assured the hill and every other lamestream partisan media outlet will HIDE this.
They will try to make Romney’s loss to Obama a self-fulfilling prophesy. Disgruntled conservatives will be (ab)used to depress Republican voting.
Just as the proverbial lemmings...going nowhere fast.
“Rasmussen completely missed the Republican take-over of the US House in 2010, and patriots taking over 26 state legislatures.”
You are dead wrong. Rasmussen actually overestimnated Republican strength in the 2010 elections.
I understand not voting for Bishop Romney, but I did not understand your post.
As has been said many times on these pages, Mitt Romney is unelectable.
Quite simply, not voting for whomever is the nominee is, objectively, a vote for Obama.
I understand your point, but an individual American has to vote as an individual. Supporting, endorsing, Bishop Romney is something that many Americans cannot do, even if they have been voting for Republican candidates for decades.
It is easy to think in terms of Obama versus Romney, but for millions of us, we will not be forced into voting for Romney, no matter how you phrase it, there is a conservative force within the GOP which is fighting to defeat the left, and that fight includes stopping the Romney/Rockefeller element from defeating the Reagan/Palin branch of the GOP.
Where was your argument when you guys were fighting to defeat the GOP Senate candidate in Alaska?
yes, during Obamas election, Soros & Co., made sure gas would skyrocket before and in the very month of the election.
They will do the reverse this time.
Really? How? If price is a function of supply/demand how other then massively increasing the supply of crude can he drive prices down? Even if Obama emptied the reserves it would have a very short term effect and the crude to replace what is now in the reserve (avg cost about $22.00 bbl) would be in the $100 range.
Give an example of how this(your scenario)could come about.
Gallup at this point is polling only national adults and that method is the most inaccurate when trying to see ahead. The use of likely voters is the only way to get results approaching a semblance of accuracy and even then they are nothing but a snapshot.
Nonsense. Polling adult voters without regard to whether they are even registered or likely to vote is hugely undependable and even a 5% (and that is almost within the MOE anyway) error would result in Obama polling at 45% instead of 50%
The survey of 500 Likely Voters in Florida, Ohio, North Carolina and Virginia was conducted on March 31 April 5, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points.."
Note the very small sample and that at 3% it is still within the MOE. Add to that the fact Obama is the incumbant AND that only 22% of those id'd as ubsure in the head to head matchup have a favorable opinion of Obama while 78% do not. It is accepted that undecided voters usually break toward the challenger.
No chance the USSC blowup is helping Obama since according to Ras only 15% or so believe the USSC has to much influence on government.