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High Risk Of Severe Weather Saturday (Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Iowa)
Wunderground.com ^ | 4/13/12 | Sean Tanner

Posted on 04/13/2012 3:20:25 AM PDT by dirtboy

Edited on 04/14/2012 10:35:01 AM PDT by Admin Moderator. [history]

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1 posted on 04/13/2012 3:20:34 AM PDT by dirtboy
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Comment #2 Removed by Moderator

To: dirtboy

Fire up the TIV... Let’s roll!


3 posted on 04/13/2012 3:57:33 AM PDT by laker_dad
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To: dirtboy



4 posted on 04/13/2012 4:56:55 AM PDT by TomGuy
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To: dirtboy
Interesting! That area on NOAA's CONUS map:

http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/full_loop.php

Looks absolutely placid at 9AM local time...

5 posted on 04/13/2012 7:15:52 AM PDT by TXnMA ("Allah": Satan's current alias...)
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To: TXnMA; dirtboy

Ooops! I now see that Kansas is already getting whacked...


6 posted on 04/13/2012 7:19:42 AM PDT by TXnMA ("Allah": Satan's current alias...)
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To: dirtboy

As usually happens with these, I have family smack-dab in the middle of the “high” area and lots scattered in the moderate & slight.

We watched part of a Nova about severe weather last night. They talked a lot about warning systems and how to increase lead time, but pointed out that many times even with 10+ minutes of lead time people still don’t seek shelter soon enough. One of the points made was that people in Tornado Alley tend to pay more attention to weather because they’re all too familiar with the dangers, and that results in those areas having lower death tolls even when large population centers are hit.

My grandmother was fascinating when it came to the topic of tornadoes. She could recount more than a half-dozen times she’d been much too close to a twister before there were radars. Knowing how to spot dangerous weather before it happened was just part of life. Although she never graduated from high school, she knew her weather because it meant survival for her and her kids.


7 posted on 04/13/2012 8:15:49 AM PDT by FourPeas ("Maladjusted and wigging out is no way to go through life, son." -hg)
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To: FourPeas
I think warnings from doppler rotation aloft alone have become somewhat problematic, as often no tornado appears and folks start to view such warnings as crying wolf.

But that also is part of human nature - the NWS is damned if they do issue such warnings and damned if they don't. In the end, those who take such things seriously - such as your grandmother - will be far more likely to survive a tornado hit than those who don't take things seriously - such as the folks in NOLA who thought they could ride out Katrina. Much of the time, there is nothing you can do for the second class of people other than pull their remains out of the wreckage afterwards.

8 posted on 04/13/2012 8:28:25 AM PDT by dirtboy
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Comment #9 Removed by Moderator

To: FourPeas

I called my ex wife in Oklahoma and told her she would be smart to stay home tomorrow afternoon and evening. That is a huge area of high and moderate severe risk.


10 posted on 04/13/2012 5:16:24 PM PDT by dirtboy
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To: FourPeas

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2071

This is the second time SPC has issued a “High Risk” forecast this year; the first “High Risk” forecast came for the March 2 tornado outbreak, which killed 41 people and did $1.5 - $2 billion in damage. It is very unusual for SPC to issue a “High Risk” forecast more than a day in advance of a suspected tornado outbreak; according to Wikipedia, today’s “High Risk” forecast is only the second time SPC has ever done this. The other instance was for the April 6 - 8, 2006 tornado outbreak focused over Tennessee, which generated 73 tornadoes that killed 13 and did $1.5 billion in damage. People living in the threatened area need to pay close attention on Saturday to this dangerous severe weather situation.


11 posted on 04/13/2012 6:25:31 PM PDT by dirtboy
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To: FourPeas
High / Medium risk area has enlarged in the north and shifted north as well:

Not a good day to be in the eastern 2/3rds of Nebraska.

12 posted on 04/14/2012 5:50:20 AM PDT by dirtboy
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To: dirtboy

“Not a good day to be in the eastern 2/3rds of Nebraska.”

Tell me sbout it. I’m in a small town that is basically a suburb of Omaha. The wife and I are feeling pretty nervous about this afternoon and evening.

Jim Cantore from the Weather Channel is here in Omaha. That can’t be good.


13 posted on 04/14/2012 6:06:53 AM PDT by Big Red Clay (Greetings from the Big Red State)
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To: dirtboy

“I called my ex wife in Oklahoma and told her she would be smart to stay home tomorrow afternoon and evening.”

****

You must like your ex-wife. Thinking about telling mine that this weekend is the perfect time for her to visit Oklahoma on her broom.


14 posted on 04/14/2012 6:11:21 AM PDT by peyton randolph (Mitt has more views on an issue than he has pairs of magic underpants)
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To: peyton randolph

Yeah, I’m on good terms with the ex. Although she drives a Prius instead of a broom because she remarried to a Democrat and got all squishy liberal.


15 posted on 04/14/2012 6:15:07 AM PDT by dirtboy
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To: Big Red Clay
Jim Cantore from the Weather Channel is here in Omaha. That can’t be good.

You're doomed.

16 posted on 04/14/2012 6:15:51 AM PDT by dirtboy
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To: Big Red Clay

Good luck to you and your family. If Jim Cantore is in your neighborhood that is NOT a good thing.


17 posted on 04/14/2012 6:19:20 AM PDT by ohioman
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To: Big Red Clay

Good luck to you and your family. If Jim Cantore is in your neighborhood that is NOT a good thing.


18 posted on 04/14/2012 6:19:33 AM PDT by ohioman
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To: Big Red Clay

Good luck to you and your family. If Jim Cantore is in your neighborhood that is NOT a good thing.


19 posted on 04/14/2012 6:19:45 AM PDT by ohioman
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To: ohioman

Damn. I wish the POST button would work right. (I keep getting the stuck hourglass, which causes multiple posts.)


20 posted on 04/14/2012 6:21:23 AM PDT by ohioman
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To: Big Red Clay

Stay safe. You have a basement, right? Sounds like a good day to make a very comfortable man cave.


21 posted on 04/14/2012 7:16:03 AM PDT by FourPeas ("Maladjusted and wigging out is no way to go through life, son." -hg)
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To: dirtboy

So now I have A Whole Lot More family in the high risk area. This could be a very bad day. That High Risk area is massive.


22 posted on 04/14/2012 7:19:25 AM PDT by FourPeas ("Maladjusted and wigging out is no way to go through life, son." -hg)
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To: FourPeas
It was two separate areas when I posted it earlier. They just merged them and made the overall area larger. That is a HUGE swath of high-risk, don't recall seeing one bigger.

Which means they are seeing worsening conditions. Everyone in the area of the high and moderate risk should pay VERY close attention before venturing out this afternoon and evening and review their plans as to what to do at home in case of a tornado warning.

23 posted on 04/14/2012 7:25:11 AM PDT by dirtboy
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To: FourPeas

The NWS Storm Prediction Center in Norman had a close brush with a tornado yesterday:

http://www.weather.com/outlook/weather-news/news/articles/tornado-norman-oklahoma_2012-04-14


24 posted on 04/14/2012 7:35:33 AM PDT by dirtboy
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To: dirtboy

They certainly had a good view. I was watching several storm spotters near OKC yesterday during that time. I thought I heard one saying that for today the NWS has activated a back-up location at an Air Force Base in ND(?). That’s pretty telling.

I usually gauge how severe the weather will be based on the number of storm spotters on WeatherTAP. Yesterday it looked like they were re-inacting a cattle drive using storm spotters.


25 posted on 04/14/2012 7:48:19 AM PDT by FourPeas ("Maladjusted and wigging out is no way to go through life, son." -hg)
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To: Big Red Clay; FourPeas
The risk is even higher up in SE Nebraska:


26 posted on 04/14/2012 7:49:02 AM PDT by dirtboy
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To: dirtboy
Everyone in the area of the high and moderate risk should pay VERY close attention before venturing out this afternoon and evening and review their plans as to what to do at home in case of a tornado warning.

Bears repeating.

27 posted on 04/14/2012 7:51:40 AM PDT by FourPeas ("Maladjusted and wigging out is no way to go through life, son." -hg)
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To: FourPeas

28 posted on 04/14/2012 7:54:30 AM PDT by FourPeas ("Maladjusted and wigging out is no way to go through life, son." -hg)
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To: All

The percentages in the map indicate the forecast chance of a tornado hitting within 25 miles. The hatched areas are forecasts for stronger tornadoes - EF2 to EF5.


29 posted on 04/14/2012 7:54:33 AM PDT by dirtboy
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To: FourPeas
Convection already starting to fire:

Atmosphere is juicing up:

Significant Tornado Potential (STP) already high, will probably reach near-peak levels later in the day (it's only 10 AM now and the elements are still converging for this event:


30 posted on 04/14/2012 8:04:33 AM PDT by dirtboy
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To: dirtboy

Great info. Thanks.


31 posted on 04/14/2012 8:13:27 AM PDT by FourPeas ("Maladjusted and wigging out is no way to go through life, son." -hg)
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To: FourPeas

32 posted on 04/14/2012 8:25:20 AM PDT by dirtboy
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To: FourPeas

Already severe storm warnings in Kansas and Nebraska.


33 posted on 04/14/2012 8:38:40 AM PDT by dirtboy
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To: dirtboy

Predictive weather software is fascinating. At times when I’ve compared prediction v. actual, it’s been amazingly accurate. Such sophisticated algorithms...as a former programmer it would be a blast to work on. And, we’re learning so much more as time goes by. What an great time in which to live. I may only be able to sit back and appreciate the advances being made, but I still get excited for the geeks who get to do it.


34 posted on 04/14/2012 8:43:38 AM PDT by FourPeas ("Maladjusted and wigging out is no way to go through life, son." -hg)
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To: FourPeas

The scary thing about that STP animation is that at one point the high levels extend from the Rio Grande to northern Nebraska.


35 posted on 04/14/2012 8:47:04 AM PDT by dirtboy
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To: dirtboy

Whoa. I’m I seeing it correctly, that there’s already areas reporting 2.5” hail (near Arcadia, KS)? Before 11AM? Eek.


36 posted on 04/14/2012 8:52:44 AM PDT by FourPeas ("Maladjusted and wigging out is no way to go through life, son." -hg)
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To: FourPeas
Dang, already have a PDS tornado watch:

Particularly Dangerous Situation Tornado Watch 165


37 posted on 04/14/2012 9:00:53 AM PDT by dirtboy
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To: dirtboy

NWS is going to be busy today.

A PDS already...it’s getting ugly early.


38 posted on 04/14/2012 9:05:31 AM PDT by FourPeas ("Maladjusted and wigging out is no way to go through life, son." -hg)
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To: dirtboy

Perhaps the only good thing about this PDS is that much of the area is flat and sparsely populated.


39 posted on 04/14/2012 9:10:47 AM PDT by FourPeas ("Maladjusted and wigging out is no way to go through life, son." -hg)
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To: FourPeas

The PDS watches for the larger cities in the area - OKC, Tulsa, Wichita, Topeka, KC, Lincoln, Omaha - will come later. The jet stream is going to be racing right over the high risk area at over 100 mph. Throw in strong surface-level winds at a 45 degree angle to the jet and you have the ingredients to incorporate rotation.


40 posted on 04/14/2012 9:21:56 AM PDT by dirtboy
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To: dirtboy
Throw in strong surface-level winds at a 45 degree angle to the jet and you have the ingredients to incorporate rotation.

Thank you for the great posts DB! I'm in western Oklahoma and looking to my North and East I can see huge supercell Mammatus clouds.......I think most of the activity today will be East of me, but I have my storm cellar door unlocked and ready. Pleasr keep the posts coming...thanks.

41 posted on 04/14/2012 9:38:05 AM PDT by ScreamingFist (Quiet the Idiot)
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To: dirtboy

Interesting the SPC has included a MDT area for tomorrow in WI.


42 posted on 04/14/2012 9:55:10 AM PDT by FourPeas ("Maladjusted and wigging out is no way to go through life, son." -hg)
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To: FourPeas

PDS watch just issued for SE Nebraska.


43 posted on 04/14/2012 10:08:54 AM PDT by dirtboy
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To: FourPeas

44 posted on 04/14/2012 10:11:44 AM PDT by dirtboy
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To: dirtboy

Good info. Scary, but good.


45 posted on 04/14/2012 10:17:13 AM PDT by Lando Lincoln (But that's just me.)
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To: Lando Lincoln

First tornado warning of the day issued:

The National Weather Service in Hastings has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
western Jewell County in north central Kansas...
northwestern Mitchell County in north central Kansas...
northeastern Osborne County in north central Kansas...
southeastern Smith County in north central Kansas...

* until 1245 PM CDT

* at 1204 PM CDT... National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated a
severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado. This dangerous
storm was located 5 miles south of Osborne... or 30 miles west of
Beloit... and moving northeast at 45 mph.

* Locations impacted include...
Downs... Cawker City... Ionia... Esbon... Burr Oak and Mankato.


46 posted on 04/14/2012 10:21:03 AM PDT by dirtboy
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To: dirtboy

Thanks for the thread. Greatly appreciated.


47 posted on 04/14/2012 10:28:27 AM PDT by EternalVigilance (You can be a Romney Republican or you can be a conservative. You can't be both. Pick one.)
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To: dirtboy

Here we go! Lord, please...


48 posted on 04/14/2012 10:34:39 AM PDT by Lando Lincoln (But that's just me.)
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To: dirtboy

That didn’t take long.


49 posted on 04/14/2012 10:40:36 AM PDT by FourPeas ("Maladjusted and wigging out is no way to go through life, son." -hg)
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To: FourPeas
From a blog post at wunderground:

Significant Tornado Parameters are expected to be near 25 this evening. This is the highest values we have seen since April 27 when there was a value of 37.


50 posted on 04/14/2012 10:46:12 AM PDT by dirtboy
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