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Obama and Romney at the Starting Gate
Townhall.com ^ | April 13, 2012 | Scott Rasmussen

Posted on 04/13/2012 5:34:20 AM PDT by Kaslin

Any doubt that Mitt Romney would win the Republican presidential nomination vanished when Rick Santorum left the race. It also marked the end of Romney's time as the defining figure in the overall contest for the White House.

The GOP nomination process was seen by many as a competition between Romney and an entertaining cast of I'm Not Mitt Romney challengers. Questions were raised about Romney's perceived weaknesses and whether he could win over the hearts and votes of conservatives. But now President Obama moves to center stage and becomes the defining figure of the general election campaign. Now it's about Obama, not Romney, as the election becomes primarily a referendum on his first term in office.

The most important indicator of the president's prospects will be his job-approval rating. That rating will be very close to his share of the vote on Election Day. In 2004, President George W. Bush had a 51 percent job approval rating and won 51 percent of the vote.

Obama's ratings suggest we are heading for a potentially very close race in November. For the past 32 months, the full month approval ratings for the president have been remarkably stable, holding to a very narrow range of 44 percent to 49 percent. People seem to have formed an opinion of the president, love him or hate him, and nothing can change their minds. Those who oppose the president tend to feel more strongly about it than those who support him.

For most of the past three years, the president's ratings have stayed in an even narrower band of 46 percent to 48 percent. Those numbers suggest Obama would earn just under 50 percent of the vote on Election Day. If the president can win over a few more voters and move those numbers up a bit in the coming months, he is very likely to keep his job. If the president's ratings falter, Romney is likely to be moving into the White House next January.

Economic concerns dominate the voters' agenda, and here the numbers for the president are more troubling. Forty-nine percent of the nation's voters trust Romney more than the president when it comes to the economy. Just 39 percent trust Obama more.

That double-digit advantage for Romney is consistent with other data showing a general lack of confidence in the president's economic policies. Only 37 percent give him positive reviews for his handling of the economy so far.

Middle-income voters are especially likely to have more confidence in Romney. Obama does best among those who earn less than $20,000 a year and those who earn more than $100,000 annually.

Especially troubling for the White House is the fact that 20 percent of Democrats trust Romney more than Obama on this core issue.

On other issues, however, Romney and Obama are essentially even. This includes health care, taxes, national security and energy.

Still, in a year when economic concerns trump all other issues, these numbers represent a good starting point for Romney. But what really matters is how voters feel in November. If the economy improves between now and then, confidence in the president's economic policies -- and his job approval ratings -- are sure to improve as well, and he'll be much tougher for Romney to beat.


TOPICS: Editorial; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS:

1 posted on 04/13/2012 5:34:24 AM PDT by Kaslin
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To: Kaslin

” - - - For most of the past three years, the president’s ratings have stayed in an even narrower band of 46 percent to 48 percent.”

What does it take to change the minds of the free-lunch bunch?


2 posted on 04/13/2012 5:42:27 AM PDT by Graewoulf ((Dictator Baby-Doc Barack's obama"care" violates Sherman Anti-Trust Law, AND U.S. Constitution.))
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To: Kaslin

In my opinion, the Republicans succeed or fail in their bid to take the White House based on their ability to a) understand and b) communicate the following proposition:

We have not yet seen the real Barack Obama. The media has hidden him from us. Obama himself has kept in hiding, in preparation for his second term. Only in his second term will you see the Real Barack Obama. And the Real Barack Obama is someone who any decent, rational America will very strongly disagree with.

The problem is that a strong majority of GOP establishment fold do not understand this proposition and would be much too timid to communicate it even if they did understand it.


3 posted on 04/13/2012 5:45:37 AM PDT by samtheman
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To: Graewoulf
What does it take to change the minds of the free-lunch bunch?
The free-lunch bunch are in the bag for Obama.
4 posted on 04/13/2012 5:46:59 AM PDT by samtheman
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To: Kaslin
The faux media needs to get over this Romney has won BS!

If anything the roof raising which is going to happen at the convention is going to cause certain calamity! If he doesn't hit the magic number all bets are off!

5 posted on 04/13/2012 5:51:03 AM PDT by sirchtruth (Freedom is not free.)
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To: sirchtruth

Notice how Scott Rasmussen deliberately excludes Newt! So much for truth and impartiality from Rasmussen. He gets kicked to the curb with maggot mitt.


6 posted on 04/13/2012 5:57:45 AM PDT by presently no screen name
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To: sirchtruth

Rasmussen and Fox are telling those of us who haven’t voted yet to suck it up and accept Romney.


7 posted on 04/13/2012 6:07:57 AM PDT by Mangia E Statti Zitto
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To: presently no screen name
Notice how Scott Rasmussen deliberately excludes Newt!

The media hates Newt because he's so much smarter than they are. Some people have these personalities which exude haughtiness, even when the person is not arrogant.

Newt unfortunately has these inconspicuous traits about him which many people do not find appealing. That's the ONLY reason he's not front runner right now.

8 posted on 04/13/2012 6:15:20 AM PDT by sirchtruth (Freedom is not free.)
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To: samtheman

” - - - The free-lunch bunch are in the bag for Obama.”

Then our job is to throw cold water on the paper-thin lunch bag.


9 posted on 04/13/2012 6:16:18 AM PDT by Graewoulf ((Dictator Baby-Doc Barack's obama"care" violates Sherman Anti-Trust Law, AND U.S. Constitution.))
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To: Graewoulf
What does it take to change the minds of the free-lunch bunch?

Convincing them Obama is a tax- and budget-cutting conservative.

10 posted on 04/13/2012 6:23:14 AM PDT by ScottinVA (A single drop of American blood for muslims is one drop too many!)
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To: Mangia E Statti Zitto
Rasmussen and Fox are telling those of us who haven’t voted yet to suck it up and accept Romney.

They have no idea the S-storm which is coming for the GOP and Romney.

If conservatives are going to prevail we have to get in there and politically fight, and fight hard!

11 posted on 04/13/2012 6:27:02 AM PDT by sirchtruth (Freedom is not free.)
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To: Kaslin
For the past 32 months, the full month approval ratings for the president have been remarkably stable, holding to a very narrow range of 44 percent to 49 percent.

Which puts Obama's hardcore base in the 46-47% range. That's a tall mountain to climb for an opponent who has no discernible base of his own.

12 posted on 04/13/2012 6:31:09 AM PDT by ScottinVA (A single drop of American blood for muslims is one drop too many!)
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To: Kaslin

To paraphrase what another poster here so aptly described - the Zero and Romney: two state supremacists battling it out on the Eastern Front.


13 posted on 04/13/2012 6:33:36 AM PDT by Noumenon ("I tell you, gentlemen, we have a problem on our hands." Col. Nicholson-The Bridge on the River Qwai)
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To: sirchtruth
Newt is NOT haughty - that's your preconceived notion speaking and not reality. Some need to find something, even when it's not there to make them 'feel' better.

That's the ONLY reason he's not front runner right now.

WRONG! People are just drawn to EVIL/Mitt as they live in fear and that's a weapon of satan to get them to succumb to evil.

Patriots will NEVER pull a lever for pro homo pro abortion mitt. His supporters are the wusses of the world. Void of anything patriotic.

America deserves the BEST and she has it in NEWT!!

14 posted on 04/13/2012 6:35:57 AM PDT by presently no screen name
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To: presently no screen name

>> Patriots will NEVER pull a lever for pro homo pro abortion mitt. <<

Well, then I guess Newt isn’t a patriot, since he has said time and again that he’ll support Romney if the latter wins the GOP nomination.


15 posted on 04/13/2012 7:31:58 AM PDT by Hawthorn
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Comment #16 Removed by Moderator

To: sirchtruth
The media hates Newt because he's so much smarter than they are. Some people have these personalities which exude haughtiness, even when the person is not arrogant.

Newt unfortunately has these inconspicuous traits about him which many people do not find appealing. That's the ONLY reason he's not front runner right now.

You are projecting your own "feelings" and opinions about Newt Gingrich onto others as if they are truths.

If the traits are inconspicuous (unnoticeable, unobtrusive, unostentatious), how is it that people supposedly find them unappealing?

17 posted on 04/13/2012 7:48:23 AM PDT by arasina (So there.)
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To: Kaslin

What a race indeed...all left turns, and at the end, one horse will be only slightly to the right from the other.


18 posted on 04/13/2012 7:52:17 AM PDT by GenXteacher (You have chosen dishonor to avoid war; you shall have war also.)
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To: Hawthorn

Can you read? Did you hand over your total mind to the Evil/mitt. Did Newt pull a lever? NO!!

Your homo loving and pro abortionist Mitt is NOT going to win. So his supporters sold their soul and America for nothing - like scum of the earth does! A vote for him is a vote for homo loving/pro abortion barry. Evil gives his minions different flavors to choose - evil wins no matter what - mitt or barry!


19 posted on 04/13/2012 7:56:53 AM PDT by presently no screen name
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To: presently no screen name
Newt is NOT haughty - that's your preconceived notion speaking and not reality. Some need to find something, even when it's not there to make them 'feel' better.

Ok here's what I wrote.

Some people have these personalities which exude haughtiness, even when the person is not arrogant.

I was trying to come from a perspective as you suggest which I think many people "view" Newt on the "evil" side, and unfortunately translates to those moderates and some conservative repubs. Yes, I think it is a wrong PERCEPTION of Newt. I don't think Newt is haughty, I'm saying he is perceive as such. It is reality because he's not popular! I guarantee you I am not the only conservative who sees or thinks this! I can look past it because I know this view does not reflect who Newt really is.

America deserves the BEST and she has it in NEWT!!

I concur wholeheartedly.

20 posted on 04/13/2012 8:02:09 AM PDT by sirchtruth (Freedom is not free.)
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To: arasina
You are projecting your own "feelings" and opinions about Newt Gingrich onto others as if they are truths.

I'm am giving my OPINION here. Of course I think I'm right, but yes, it is what I perceive and believe to be the truth.

I'm sorry, as much as I think Newt is the most qualified and would be a great President (Most likely one of the best) his personality just does not translate well among the electorate. (Just look at the polls)

If the traits are inconspicuous (unnoticeable, unobtrusive, unostentatious), how is it that people supposedly find them unappealing?

I think I used the wrong word: "inconspicuous." I meant there is a feeling out there Newt posses "haughty" traits. There is something about his image which facilitates this unknowingly.

If I'm the only one who perceives this then I guess I am, but I doubt it...

21 posted on 04/13/2012 8:23:37 AM PDT by sirchtruth (Freedom is not free.)
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To: Graewoulf

War ... the dependency class has to see that their gravy train is about to end if they don’t save the Republic from which they are getting their free ride before they will pull together to save the Republic. Human nature really. Black Democrats are still enslaved and still by democrats.


22 posted on 04/13/2012 8:40:49 AM PDT by MHGinTN (Being deceived can be cured.)
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To: sirchtruth

>> I meant there is a feeling out there Newt possesses “haughty” traits. <<

I don’t recall ever coming across an opinion that Newt is “haughty” — not among his supporters and not among the large community of Newt-deniers on FR. I think a lot of us would say he’s a pretty “down-to-earth” guy.

(And after all, his favorite leisure activity seems to be going to the nearest zoo to pet the animals. Seriously!)

On the other hand, according to men who have worked closely with him, like Tom DeLay, Dick Armey, Tom Coburn and Jim Talent, Newt is disorganized, a poor manager, impulsive and maybe even emotionally unstable. In other words, a lot like many professors in the academy, where Newt got his start.

So here’s where I come out on the matter:

A guy with Newt’s personality traits simply can’t put together a successful campaign for POTUS, as has been amply demonstrated by his inability to win solidly conservative states like Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, Kansas and Louisiana.


23 posted on 04/13/2012 9:01:31 AM PDT by Hawthorn
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To: Hawthorn
I don’t recall ever coming across an opinion that Newt is “haughty” — not among his supporters and not among the large community of Newt-deniers on FR. I think a lot of us would say he’s a pretty “down-to-earth” guy.

Ok, obviously I'm not being very precise trying to get my point across.

It's not us here on FR who perceive him this way. It's not the people who know him and have been around him or his supporters. It's the media and some in the republican party!

A guy with Newt’s personality traits simply can’t put together a successful campaign for POTUS, as has been amply demonstrated by his inability to win solidly conservative states like Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, Kansas and Louisiana.

Exactly. I think it is because of this perception among people who do not really know him which put him behind. What other explanation is there?

Newt's the one that said, "People do not understand him." How do you think those who do not know him perceive this statement?

24 posted on 04/13/2012 9:44:27 AM PDT by sirchtruth (Freedom is not free.)
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