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Where’s the ‘Probable Cause’?
national review ^ | 4-13-12 | John Lott

Posted on 04/13/2012 7:05:10 PM PDT by doug from upland

The charges brought against George Zimmerman sure look like prosecutorial misconduct. The case as put forward by the prosecutor in the “affidavit of probable cause” is startlingly weak. As a former chief economist at the U.S. Sentencing Commission, I have read a number of such affidavits, and cannot recall one lacking so much relevant information. The prosecutor has most likely deliberately overcharged, hoping to intimidate Zimmerman into agreeing to a plea bargain. If this case goes to trial, Zimmerman will almost definitely be found “not guilty” on the charge of second-degree murder.

The prosecutor wasn’t required to go to the grand jury for the indictment, but the fact that she didn’t in such a high-profile case is troubling. Everyone knows how easy it is for a prosecutor to get a grand jury to indict, because only the prosecutor presents evidence. A grand-jury indictment would have provided political cover; that charges were brought without one means that the prosecutor was worried that a grand jury would not give her the indictment.

Advertisement The affidavit consists of six main points:

● Zimmerman was upset about all “the break-ins in his neighborhood” and expressed anger at how criminals “always get away.”

● According to a discussion with Trayvon Martin’s girlfriend, who said that she was talking to Martin before the attack, Zimmerman followed Martin. He did so despite the police operator’s saying “we don’t need you to do that.”

● Zimmerman “confronted Martin and a struggle ensued,” though no evidence is cited on this point.

● Trayvon Martin’s mother identified the voice crying for help on a 9-1-1 call as her son’s.

● Zimmerman shot Martin in the chest, and this is confirmed by both Zimmerman’s statement and ballistics tests.

● Martin died from the gunshot wound.

Note some of the points that are missing. The prosecution doesn’t claim Zimmerman had racial animus against blacks. There was no “f***ing coons” on the police call. Some extremely relevant information from the police report is completely excluded: There is no mention of the grass and wetness found on the back of Zimmerman’s shirt, the gashes on the back of his head, the bloody nose, or the other witnesses who saw Martin on top of Zimmerman, beating him, before the shot was fired. There is not even an attempt to say that the police report was in error; instead the affidavit just disregards it.

Even if everything in the affidavit is correct, it does not even begin to deal with the most crucial question: Who attacked whom? Even if it is true that “Zimmerman confronted Martin and a struggle ensued,” there may have been no wrongdoing on Zimmerman’s part. “Confronted” does not mean “provoked” or “assaulted.” It could simply mean that Zimmerman followed Martin and asked him what he was doing in the neighborhood. Surely Zimmerman had the right to investigate a strange person in his neighborhood. The police operator’s advice that “we don’t need you to do that” was merely suggestive, not an order to stop. Indeed, the police had no authority to give Zimmerman such an order.

Now take the charge of “second degree” murder. There is no way that the affidavit justifies such a charge. In Florida, second-degree murder is defined as “the unlawful killing of a human being, when perpetrated by any act imminently dangerous to another and evincing a depraved mind regardless of human life, although without any premeditated design to effect the death of any particular individual.” But if Zimmerman was being beaten, there was no “depraved mind regardless of human life,” and the act “imminently dangerous to another” would be justified as self-defense.

Angela Corey, the special prosecutor who filed charges, claimed multiple times on Wednesday that the prosecutors “are seekers of the truth.” In our legal system, grand juries can sometimes provide a check on prosecutors who indict based on political pressure or the desire to seek the limelight. It is no surprise that Corey avoided the grand jury.

— John R. Lott Jr. is a FoxNews.com contributor and a co-author of the just-released Debacle: Obama’s War on Jobs and Growth and What We Can Do Now to Regain Our Future (John Wiley & Sons, March 2012).


TOPICS: Crime/Corruption; Editorial; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: blackkk; florida; georgezimmerman; johnlott; lott; marktwain; trayvon; trayvonmartin; z911calltranscript; zimmerman; zimmermancharged
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1 posted on 04/13/2012 7:05:20 PM PDT by doug from upland
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To: doug from upland

What I can’t understand is how the judge accepted this pathetic piece of sh... er, *work* at Zimmerman’s hearing yesterday, and decided it was sufficient to support the murder 2 charge.


2 posted on 04/13/2012 7:09:53 PM PDT by Nervous Tick (Trust in God, but row away from the rocks!)
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To: All

Because of the manipulation and lies of the networks, threats and intimidation by flamethrower Sharpton and pals, and a pronouncement by racist Mad Maxine on the floor of Congress that Trayvon was hunted down like a dog and shot, there is no way Zimmerman can ever get a fair trial. The jury pool across the country is hopelessly tainted.


3 posted on 04/13/2012 7:10:18 PM PDT by doug from upland (Just in case, it has been reserved: www.TheBitchIsBack2012.com)
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To: Nervous Tick

Jessie Jackson and Al Sharpton are in a win/win situation on this. Zimmerman gets convicted, they puff out their chests to prove to their minions that THEY had the power and fortitude to help bring on this “justice”.

What they REALLY hope for is an aquittal. THEN they can racebait at a level not seen since Rodney King. They are licking their chops on this.


4 posted on 04/13/2012 7:13:12 PM PDT by TapsBrowning
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To: doug from upland

I read it. It read like the prosecution’s closing arguments. It was laughable.


5 posted on 04/13/2012 7:15:18 PM PDT by cuban leaf (Were doomed! Details at eleven.)
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To: doug from upland

I have a question that I’ve wondered about. When the cops told Zimmerman to quit following the other guy, was Zimmerman in his car?


6 posted on 04/13/2012 7:17:07 PM PDT by Tau Food
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To: doug from upland

Pardon me for the dumb question.

I know why she does not want to go to a Grand Jury, but how
does she get away with not going to the Grand Jury? It
would seem to me that it is required under the 5th Amendment.

Something about not being held to answer for a capital or
otherwise infamous crime without...

just asking.

Mike


7 posted on 04/13/2012 7:26:06 PM PDT by doublecansiter (without cartridge, load in nine times, LOAD!)
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To: Tau Food

Zimmerman never spoke to a “cop” at all until after Martin was dead.


8 posted on 04/13/2012 7:27:34 PM PDT by jwalsh07 (.)
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To: doug from upland

Can you imagine being the lone juror who refuses to be intimidated, doesn’t find Zimmerman guilty beyond a reasonable doubt, and the Black Panthers put a bounty on your head?

Don’t say something like that couldn’t happen in this country, because it already has happened, hasn’t it?


9 posted on 04/13/2012 7:32:31 PM PDT by DJ Taylor (Once again our country is at war, and once again the Democrats have sided with our enemy.)
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To: Tau Food

Don’t know.


10 posted on 04/13/2012 7:33:40 PM PDT by doug from upland (Just in case, it has been reserved: www.TheBitchIsBack2012.com)
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To: jwalsh07

I think Zimmerman called 911 and I think someone at 911 told him to quit following the kid. I’m just wondering if he was following the kid in his car when that happened. Maybe no one has said yet. I guess it will all come out eventually.


11 posted on 04/13/2012 7:33:58 PM PDT by Tau Food
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To: Tau Food
-- When the cops told Zimmerman to quit following the other guy, was Zimmerman in his car? --

No.

Transcript of Zimmerman Call to Police Dispatch

Contrary to what the charging affidavit asserts, Zimmerman was not told to "wait" either. The word "wait" does not appear anywhere in the transcript of the call.

12 posted on 04/13/2012 7:35:38 PM PDT by Cboldt
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To: doug from upland

We don’t need no steenking probable cause.


13 posted on 04/13/2012 7:36:06 PM PDT by E. Pluribus Unum (Over half of U.S. murders are of black people, and 90% of them are committed by other black people.)
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To: DJ Taylor

I fully expect the jury to be intimidated. All of their home addresses and places where they work are going to be Tweeted.


14 posted on 04/13/2012 7:37:25 PM PDT by doug from upland (Just in case, it has been reserved: www.TheBitchIsBack2012.com)
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To: doug from upland

This is a 21st Century American version of a 1930s Stalinist Show Trial.

In this version, it begins with the media.

And of course, it’s already begun.

If you look at the actions in court through the lens of the US Constitution, you are not seeing what’s really going on.

This is High Communism in action, with the full pressure of a Thugocracy in the White House backed up by the threat of large numbers of anonymous murders roaming the streets seeking revenge.

No jury will acquit this man. Juries have families. They don’t want their families dead.

Zimmerman is going down, as surely as any Enemy of the People in 1930s Stalinist Russia. And we are all going to watch it happen in the media.

We all have a ringside seat to an incredible injustice.


15 posted on 04/13/2012 7:37:31 PM PDT by samtheman
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To: Tau Food

The way I first heard it was that the 911 call taker, not the
police, that told him that they did not need him to follow
the guy. When was he given a positive order not to follow?

Are the 911 operators in that county commissioned law
enforcement officers?

Mike


16 posted on 04/13/2012 7:38:25 PM PDT by doublecansiter (without cartridge, load in nine times, LOAD!)
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To: Cboldt
Contrary to what the charging affidavit asserts, Zimmerman was not told to "wait" either. The word "wait" does not appear anywhere in the transcript of the call.

The prosecutor didn't have access to the 911 transcripts.

She only knows what the New BlacKKK Pampers told her.

17 posted on 04/13/2012 7:38:46 PM PDT by E. Pluribus Unum (Over half of U.S. murders are of black people, and 90% of them are committed by other black people.)
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To: Tau Food

He spoke to a 911 operator who is not a cop and can not issue lawful orders to anybody at any time. Lott addresses this in his article. The suggestion from the operator is not a lawful order and is in fact a canard and irrelevant legally.


18 posted on 04/13/2012 7:39:24 PM PDT by jwalsh07 (.)
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To: doug from upland

Another good analysis, this from Andrew McCarthy.

https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/295997/martin-case-affidavit-andrew-c-mccarthy


19 posted on 04/13/2012 7:42:14 PM PDT by Fledermaus (Democrats are dangerous and evil. Republicans are just useless.)
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To: Cboldt

I guess that’s why we don’t know whether he was in his vehicle or not when the 911 folks suggested he not follow the kid. I read that transcript you cited and couldn’t find where he said that he was in his vehicle or not. He did mention that the cops could find him by finding his truck, but that doesn’t necessarily mean he was in the truck at that time.

It’ll probably come out in the end.


20 posted on 04/13/2012 7:42:44 PM PDT by Tau Food
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To: doug from upland
Zimmerman “confronted Martin and a struggle ensued"

Seems like the guy who got fired from NBC wrote this affidavit. "Zimmerman confronted Martin (true) [...edited...] and a struggle ensued (true),”

The missing piece, edited out, is [lost sight of Martin, returned to his car, was then attacked by Martin]

Put this back in and it reads: Zimmerman confronted Martin lost sight of Martin, returned to his car, was then attacked by Martin and a struggle ensued

Quite a different picture!
21 posted on 04/13/2012 7:42:54 PM PDT by zencycler
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To: doug from upland

It’s pretty easy to hang the special prosecutor on this stuff, but what if... Just, what if...
I understand that the defendant may invoke the FL self defense statute as an affirmative defense in these cases. And, he/she can do so at the very start of the trial (maybe earlier?). Further, the judge must rule on that defense motion before anything else can move forward. SO, what if the special prosecutor intentionally overcharged the case, so as to give the trial judge an ‘out’ for the self defense claim?
Obama still gets to tell the faithful that the case was properly brought, and that the real problem is that damn FL self defense statute. The race baiters are never going to be placated, no matter what happens. And, the NBP can continue their tinpot army antics, as they will under any circumstances.
The finer legal minds here on FR can pick this apart much better than I can; but, it seems to me that there may be other ulterior motives in play, not just “hang Zimmerman” BS.


22 posted on 04/13/2012 7:44:03 PM PDT by PubliusMM (RKBA; a matter of fact, not opinion. 01-20-2013: Change we can look forward to.)
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To: doug from upland

25 years of Prosecution here. There is NO doubt there is probable cause for Voluntary. I am a little surprised at 2nd degree but just carrying the gun and following when told not to gets you there.

None of this means he is guilty, but the analysis is replete with ppl with agendas and who know nothing about what they speak.

Charging Zimmerman is an EASY call.

The political wags will weigh in ad nauseum. Ppl who actually think they “know the Constitution” will do so too. Fortunately, none of these people are involved in the case. Good attys on both sides. The system is working.


23 posted on 04/13/2012 7:44:33 PM PDT by RIghtwardHo
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To: doug from upland
Trayvon Martin’s mother identified the voice crying for help on a 9-1-1 call as her son’s.

That is really weak since they have at least one eye witness who says it was Zimmerman crying for help.

24 posted on 04/13/2012 7:44:46 PM PDT by TigersEye (Life is about choices. Your choices. Make good ones.)
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To: doublecansiter

The 911 operator is not a LEO. He doesn’t have to obey their commands. Ignoring a 911 operator is not a crime.


25 posted on 04/13/2012 7:45:11 PM PDT by VRWC For Truth (Throw the bums out who vote yes on the bailout)
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To: Tau Food
-- I read that transcript you cited and couldn't find where he said that he was in his vehicle or not. --

You're right, that transcript doesn't annotate the sound of him exiting his truck. He gets out of the truck just as/after he says "He's running." He's out of the truck when dispatch asks "Are you following?" The call ends (and presumably the fight starts) AFTER this call is concluded.

26 posted on 04/13/2012 7:48:19 PM PDT by Cboldt
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To: Tau Food
-- I read that transcript you cited and couldn't find where he said that he was in his vehicle or not. --

You're right, that transcript doesn't annotate the sound of him exiting his truck. He gets out of the truck just as/after he says "He's running." He's out of the truck when dispatch asks "Are you following?" The call ends (and presumably the fight starts) AFTER this call is concluded.

Make that the call ends before he gets back to his truck. Need sleep.

27 posted on 04/13/2012 7:49:07 PM PDT by Cboldt
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To: Tau Food

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o9A-gp8mrdw


28 posted on 04/13/2012 7:50:00 PM PDT by umgud (No Rats, No Rino's)
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To: jwalsh07

Well, if this case gets decided by a jury of ordinary people, I think that some jurors might look less favorably upon Zimmerman’s actions if he left his truck and approached the kid after the 911 folks suggested he back off. It doesn’t appear that the fight took place inside the truck. I guess Zimmerman could testify that he didn’t believe that 911 folks had the authority to keep him from approaching the kid, but I’m not sure that kind of testimony would endear him to some jurors.

We’ll just have to see what the facts turn out to be. Maybe he was already outside the truck when he got the admonition.


29 posted on 04/13/2012 7:50:06 PM PDT by Tau Food
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To: zencycler
Actually, no, we don't know if it true that Zimmerman "confronted" Martin. Some people have talked as if Zimmerman and Martin exchanged words earlier, but that is unclear. I don't think there is anything in what Zimmerman says in the recorded call to suggest that he and Martin had spoken to each other. The girlfriend's version indicates that Martin had noticed Zimmerman watching him, but it isn't clear how far apart they were or whether Zimmerman knew that Martin had noticed him. It was dark and it was raining.

Tonight Hannity was saying that the prosecutor must have additional testimony that the rest of us don't know about, to have produced this affidavit. Perhaps...or she may just be trying to construct the most damaging interpretation of Zimmerman's actions possible, based mainly on the girlfriend's testimony.

30 posted on 04/13/2012 7:53:46 PM PDT by Verginius Rufus
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To: Tau Food

He didn’t call 911 he called the police non-emergency number and he was not told not to follow Trayvon. If he had been he still would not be required to obey that order.


31 posted on 04/13/2012 7:55:59 PM PDT by TigersEye (Life is about choices. Your choices. Make good ones.)
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To: doublecansiter

what they said on Fox news was grand jury is only required for 1st deg murder. I think prosecutor can use grand jury in other charges but is not required


32 posted on 04/13/2012 7:56:15 PM PDT by visualops (artlife.us)
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To: Tau Food
-- I think that some jurors might look less favorably upon Zimmerman's actions if he left his truck and approached the kid after the 911 folks suggested he back off. --

There is no evidence that Zimmerman approached Martin. NONE.

The evidence has Martin running and losing Zimmerman. Zimmerman is on his way back to his truck when Martin comes from Zimmerman's left rear - in other words, the reason Zimmerman and Martin are getting closer together is that Martin chose to close distance.

Zimmerman was definitely out of his truck when he was asked "Are you following?" The sound of Zimmerman running was what prompted the dispatcher to ask that. It's very clear on the recording - just doesn't appear on the transcript I linked to.

33 posted on 04/13/2012 7:57:16 PM PDT by Cboldt
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To: Tau Food
I think there was an interval of several minutes between when the dispatcher tells Zimmerman that he doesn't need to follow Martin and he says "OK," and when the confrontation occurred. Zimmerman was trying to find a street address to help the police and apparently was walking back to his truck when Martin suddenly accosted him.

One of the witnesses in a nearby townhouse heard shouting between them which may have gone on for a while--so even if Trayvon knocked Zimmerman down as Zimmerman says, it may not have been immediately but after some verbal back-and-forth.

34 posted on 04/13/2012 7:58:37 PM PDT by Verginius Rufus
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To: doug from upland

The writer must not have gotten the memo.
Zimmerman is going to be found guilty. Somehow someway. This is pure politics.
Even if a jury finds him not guilty here, then the Feds will step in and charge some civil rights violation.


35 posted on 04/13/2012 8:00:39 PM PDT by SECURE AMERICA (Where can I sign up for the New American Revolution and the Crusades 2012?)
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To: doug from upland

The prosecutor revealed herself to be nothing more than a buffoon in front of the cameras the other day. A pure political hack.


36 posted on 04/13/2012 8:02:02 PM PDT by The Duke
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To: VRWC For Truth

That is what I thought. The 911 operators in my county in
Ohio are not LEOs either.

So where is this “the police told him not to follow” stuff
coming from? I suspect that it was made up to paint Zimmerman
as a loose cannon or somebody that was looking for a fight,
and thus negating his claim of self defense. Even if it was.

Mike


37 posted on 04/13/2012 8:05:11 PM PDT by doublecansiter (without cartridge, load in nine times, LOAD!)
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To: doug from upland

“The penalty for laughing in a courtroom is six months in jail; if it were not for this penalty, the jury would never hear the evidence.” ~H. L. Mencken


38 posted on 04/13/2012 8:05:32 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet (Ich habe keinen Konig aber Gott)
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To: doug from upland

Zimmermans’ attorney should call Sharpton, Jackson, Maxine Waters and big O to testify on what they know about this case, they should also call NBC, ABC, CBS and CNN to testify about how they manipulated the facts in this case. If nothing else, it would be funny to watch.


39 posted on 04/13/2012 8:05:47 PM PDT by Will we know the moment (e are no longer a republi)
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To: Verginius Rufus

I just listened to the recording of Zimmerman’s call before the shooting. Martin had noticed him and was staring at him. Not only was Martin behaving strangely, his demeanor may have appeared threatening to Zimmerman.


40 posted on 04/13/2012 8:06:14 PM PDT by Verginius Rufus
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To: RIghtwardHo

lol

so now just that act of “carrying a gun” and walking through you neighborhood against the advice of an opperator is proof that you are “evincing a depraved mind regardless of human life”

ROFL

this is a screwed up world.


41 posted on 04/13/2012 8:06:17 PM PDT by TexasFreeper2009 (Go Newt!)
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To: SECURE AMERICA

It may go beyond the “Stand Your Ground” law which the liberals want to get rid of. It’s the right of self-defense. If someone is beating you up and threatening to kill you, and you save your own life but the attacker winds up dead, you can be put away for life...at least if the attacker is a member of a protected group.


42 posted on 04/13/2012 8:09:36 PM PDT by Verginius Rufus
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To: samtheman

I sure hope you are wrong but I would no longer bet a nickel on it.


43 posted on 04/13/2012 8:10:17 PM PDT by TigersEye (Life is about choices. Your choices. Make good ones.)
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To: Tau Food

Have you listened to the 911 call in its entirety? It’s available at the Sanford PD site. 911 guy said “We don’t need you doing that” ( following Martin). Zim said “OK” then conversed with 911 guy about where his truck was. He had lost sight of Martin and walked on a bit further until he could find an address to tell police. He was arranging to meet police. It is a stunning audio and nothing like conventional wisdom.


44 posted on 04/13/2012 8:14:00 PM PDT by ntnychik
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To: Tau Food

You may call this nit picking but he was not told to stop following Trayvon.

The words were, “you don’t need to do that.”

The half-truth has become so prevalent now most people believe it.


45 posted on 04/13/2012 8:17:30 PM PDT by altura
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To: visualops

Okay, I should have looked up “Capital crime” in a dictionary
first.

So long as the penalty for the offense is not death, then
a grand jury is not required. Got it.

Mike


46 posted on 04/13/2012 8:20:33 PM PDT by doublecansiter (without cartridge, load in nine times, LOAD!)
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To: doug from upland

http://cnninsession.files.wordpress.com/2012/03/martinpolicreport.pdf

“Zimmerman was bleeding from the nose and the back of his head.”


47 posted on 04/13/2012 8:22:40 PM PDT by neverdem (Xin loi minh oi)
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To: RIghtwardHo
following when told not to gets you there

That might be more persuasive if the facts supported you, champ.

They don't.

48 posted on 04/13/2012 8:24:13 PM PDT by savedbygrace (But God.)
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To: RIghtwardHo

Charging Zimmerman is an EASY call.

How about CONVICTING Zimmerman? Could this be why he was not charged initially?


49 posted on 04/13/2012 8:25:49 PM PDT by 1FreeAmerican
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To: RIghtwardHo

To clarify:

1) He wasn’t told not to. The dispatcher said, “We don’t need you to do that.”

2) He responded in 2 ways: A) He said, “OK.” and B) He headed back toward his truck.


50 posted on 04/13/2012 8:27:06 PM PDT by savedbygrace (But God.)
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