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Sarkozy Comeback Bid Falters as French Economy Hits the Skids ^ | April 16, 2012 | Mike Shedlock

Posted on 04/16/2012 10:49:04 AM PDT by Kaslin

As goes the French economy, so goes the reelection chances of French president Nicolas Sarkozy. Although Sarkozy leads in round one, polls show that lead is shrinking at a pace that suggests he will not carry round one.

More importantly, Sarkozy is trailing again by double digits in polls for the decisive round two.

For those not familiar with elections in France, round one pits candidates from all the parties against each other on April 22. If no one gets 50%, the top two finishers square off in round two, on May 6.

Sarkozy struggles in polls as French economy sputters

On April 10, Reuters reported Sarkozy struggles in polls as French economy sputters

President Nicolas Sarkozy's drive to persuade voters he is the best man to lead France to economic recovery suffered a blow on Tuesday, with a survey indicating growth has ground to a halt as he struggles to make headway over his Socialist election rival.

Two weeks before the presidential elections begin, the conservative's lead over Francois Hollande is becalmed or shrinking for the first round on April 22 and he is still trailing in the runoff next month, three opinion polls showed on Tuesday.

With unemployment claims at over a 12-year high, people's purchasing power dwindling and France stripped of its prized AAA status with one credit rating agency, the Bank of France offered Sarkozy's economic record little respite.

In his manifesto, Sarkozy promised to achieve a budget surplus for the first time since 1974 and cut France's swelling debt if re-elected, warning that Hollande would lead the country towards the fate of Greece or Spain.

However, his policy of cutting the budget deficit is helping to slow the economy and hurting his election chances.

"You cannot have a tough fiscal adjustment over two years and expect strong growth at the same time," said Michel Martinez, economist at Societe Generale in Paris.
Comeback Hopes Crumble

In an update on April 13, Reuters reported Sarkozy's comeback hopes crumble, polls show

Four polls published in less than 24 hours showed Hollande extending his lead, with the conservative incumbent's modest gains of the past month starting to evaporate ahead of a two-round contest taking place on April 22 and May 6.

A CSA poll showed Hollande winning the May 6 run-off with 57 percent of the vote. Three other polls also indicated that his chances of becoming France's first left-wing president since Francois Mitterrand were improving.


Hollande has raised eyebrows in Berlin and other capitals by criticizing a European Union accord on debt and deficit control - the fiscal compact agreed in an effort to counter the euro zone debt crisis - and by saying he would open talks if elected to amend it with a pro-growth commitment.

"Germany understands that it cannot remain an island of prosperity in an ocean of recession," he told Les Echos daily. "The changeover in France will pave the way for a change of direction in Europe."

The CSA poll showed Hollande taking 57 percent of the vote in the final deciding round, up from a score of 54 previously.

The other three promising polls for Hollande were published by the BVA, LH2 and TNS Sofres agencies on Thursday.

The BVA poll showed Hollande winning the runoff with a score of 54 percent, up two points from a previous sounding. The LH2 poll showed him taking 55 percent of the vote in the second round. The TNS Sofres poll showed him at 56 percent, up 1 point.
Hollande Promises to Rework Merkozy Treaty

Francois Hollande has campaigned on a platform of making needed changes to the fragile treaty hammered out by Nicolas Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel.

Good luck with that.

Meanwhile Merkel has tremendous problems of her own. When, not if, Germany's export machine collapses, it will likely sink Merkel's chances right with it.

Setup Good for Gold?

A Hollande victory will add pressures on the euro vs. the US dollar and also elevate fears of a eurozone breakup. A breakup is likely regardless who wins, in my estimation, however, a Hollande victory could easily escalate the timetable.

If that sentiment catches hold, don't be surprised to see gold rise while the dollar strengthens.

TOPICS: Business/Economy; Editorial; Foreign Affairs; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: france; sarkozy

1 posted on 04/16/2012 10:49:10 AM PDT by Kaslin
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To: Kaslin

Sarko was dead meat the day he raised their retirement age.

To a Frenchman, being able to retire early is a Basic Human Right. Like the right to eat snails, the right to have BO, or to treat customers in a rude and snarly manner.

Sarko is toast.

His replacement will restore early retirement in France.
The Euro is toast.

2 posted on 04/16/2012 10:57:07 AM PDT by Buckeye McFrog
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To: Buckeye McFrog
Like the right to eat snails

Snails are awesome. You should try them if you haven't already.

3 posted on 04/16/2012 11:15:39 AM PDT by Maceman (Liberals' only problem with American slavery is that the slaves were privately owned.)
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To: Kaslin

Yes, those French Socialists will come in and fix everything.

4 posted on 04/16/2012 11:27:33 AM PDT by mojito
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To: Maceman
Back in the '70s I lived in Oceanside, CA, complete with a hillside full of snail-infested ice plant. One summer morning I got up at the crack of dawn, roused my two boys, and we collected a couple of dozen of 'em. I lined them up four abreast, strung out in column formation, on a piece of clear ground (think slo-mo herding cats) and got our BB guns. We made believe it was a battle in WWII Africa against Rommel's tanks.

Shots that hit the shells saw the snails roll over, leaking fluid: "Hit him in the fuel tanks!" we'd yell. A few shots took off the heads and they'd circle aimlessly: "Got the tank commander!". We ran out of live ones after a while and went hunting for more. My youngest spotted one clinging to the underside of a leaf, yelled "Jap sniper!" and took a shot - the snail dropped like a stone, just like in the John Wayne movies.

At 6:30 a.m. the wife had a WTH moment, hearing us in the yard. She came out and chewed us out - "What will the neighbors think?" Heck, we thought it was cool. We got it again in the afternoon as she made us clean up all the shells that were starting to reek. We made like we were the repair crew salvaging damaged tanks.

Good times, good times.

5 posted on 04/16/2012 11:34:41 AM PDT by Oatka (This is America. Assimilate or evaporate.)
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To: Maceman

Escargot is not at all bad; I had to be goaded into trying it, and I liked it once I tried it.

The Czechs enjoy jelito; blood sausage, which is very good, and I recommend it. Again, it’s a matter of just trying it, and not contemplating what you’re eating. But then again, I love horsemeat, either as steaks or sausages. My girlfriend finds it appaling; she asked me if I’d eat people as well, to which I responded “Yeah, but not you; you’re too scrawny.” Oh yeah, I got it upside the head for that one.

6 posted on 04/16/2012 12:00:30 PM PDT by AnAmericanAbroad (It's all bread and circuses for the future prey of the Morlocks.)
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To: Oatka

You’re one of those real fun dads, aren’t you?

7 posted on 04/16/2012 12:02:22 PM PDT by Maceman (Liberals' only problem with American slavery is that the slaves were privately owned.)
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To: AnAmericanAbroad

The Germans also like Blood sausage and you can get it at the delicatessen section at the Fort Campbell commissary

8 posted on 04/16/2012 12:15:41 PM PDT by Kaslin (Acronym for OBAMA: One Big Ass Mistake America)
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To: Kaslin

The French are insane... moving from leftist to socialist

9 posted on 04/16/2012 1:32:39 PM PDT by GeronL (The Right to Life came before the Right to Pursue Happiness)
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To: Buckeye McFrog

don’t count out Sark yet....

10 posted on 04/16/2012 5:52:53 PM PDT by cherry
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To: cherry

Last thing France needs is a socialist leader to try and beg Germany for more funds for Give Aways. I think Sarko might make a return in the second half of the election—He has an ace in the Hole with his wife and daughter. Cute counts for a few thousand votes.

11 posted on 04/16/2012 7:20:07 PM PDT by Forward the Light Brigade (Into the Jaws of H*ll)
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