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Election 2012 Trial Heat: Obama vs. Romney [MR +4]
Gallup ^ | 4/18/12 | Gallup

Posted on 04/18/2012 2:02:07 PM PDT by SoFloFreeper

These are the results when registered voters are asked: "Suppose the presidential election were held today. If Barack Obama were the Democratic Party's candidate and former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney were the Republican Party's candidate, who would you vote for Barack Obama, the Democrat or Mitt Romney, the Republican?" Those who are undecided are further asked if they lean more toward Obama or Romney and their leanings are incorporated into the results.

(Excerpt) Read more at gallup.com ...


TOPICS: Breaking News; Front Page News; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2012; 2012polls; gallup; poll
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Romney steady @ 48%. Obama up 1 to 44%.

Gallup will supposedly do this every day until the Election, or until one of these two aren't the nominee of their respective party.

1 posted on 04/18/2012 2:02:16 PM PDT by SoFloFreeper
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To: SoFloFreeper

I refuse to play their game.

It’ll be Newt Gingrich as a write-in.


2 posted on 04/18/2012 2:07:43 PM PDT by SatinDoll
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To: SoFloFreeper

This poll captures “leaners” but it is still registered voters. Likely voters would be + 3% greater lead for the Republican.


3 posted on 04/18/2012 2:09:56 PM PDT by DJtex
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To: SoFloFreeper

It will likely stay in Romney’s favor until the danger of a divided convention has passed. They manipulated some of the poll numbers during the primary so far to get their desired result, why would they stop now?


4 posted on 04/18/2012 2:16:30 PM PDT by Ingtar (When I donate to FR, it does not take the money and run as every politician I donate to does)
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To: DJtex
This poll captures “leaners” but it is still registered voters. Likely voters would be + 3% greater lead for the Republican.

Undecideds break 80/20 for the challenger even in years when the challenger gets beaten badly. So you need to tack another 6.4 points onto the challenger or 54.4%. If that holds out it will be the biggest blowout since 1984 when Reagan picked up 58% of the popular vote in a 49 state blowout.

I don't expect this lead to hold up once Obama turns the flying monkeys lose on Willard. I certainly can't be news Obama wants to hear. Obama expected to be sitting on a healthy lead after the GOP beat itself to death in the primaries.

The good news is we are probably going to win. The bad news is with Willard we won't win much. Kind of like winning a free house in Detroit.
5 posted on 04/18/2012 2:27:27 PM PDT by GonzoGOP (There are millions of paranoid people in the world and they are all out to get me.)
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To: GonzoGOP
I don't expect this lead to hold up once Obama turns the flying monkeys lose on Willard.

The leftists will certainly throw everything they have at Mittlestiltskin.

Some of up are going to spend the next seven months punching back twice as hard.

6 posted on 04/18/2012 2:31:00 PM PDT by rogue yam
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To: SoFloFreeper
The "anybody but Obama" vote is starting to show up.

Our guy can win on the anti-Obama vote, no matter who he is.

*Except for jack the Ripper and the Boston Strangler.

7 posted on 04/18/2012 2:32:43 PM PDT by capt. norm (Blessed are they who can laugh at themselves for they shall never run out of material. c)
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To: SoFloFreeper
This is very much like the lead-in in the 1980 election The press was spreading it on really thick how Carter would win (and it was so depressing) ...and then the election happened ...

"Oh no!"

8 posted on 04/18/2012 2:39:50 PM PDT by capt. norm (Blessed are they who can laugh at themselves for they shall never run out of material. c)
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To: SoFloFreeper
Those who are undecided are further asked if they lean more toward Obama or Romney and their leanings are incorporated into the results.

What about those who have decided that they will not vote for either one?

9 posted on 04/18/2012 2:42:08 PM PDT by Bubba_Leroy (The Obamanation Continues)
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To: rogue yam
Some of up are going to spend the next seven months punching back twice as hard.

I won't defend Romney. I will however attack Obama at every possible opportunity. It may seem like a little thing, but four years from now we may want to primary the bum and assuming I haven't gotten the zot by then posters here will be digging through any old posts to show how I supported Romney last time. Thing is with me at least they won't find any.

Assuming that Romney is elected the only way to keep him from going full bore leftist is the constant threat of a primary challenge in 2020. The only thing you can count on with Romney is that he is a coward. If we can make him more scared of us than he is of the liberals we might be able to survive his presidency.
10 posted on 04/18/2012 2:43:11 PM PDT by GonzoGOP (There are millions of paranoid people in the world and they are all out to get me.)
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To: SatinDoll
"It’ll be Newt Gingrich as a write-in."

Interestingly, Newt v. Obama is rising fast in Rasmussen's Likely Voter poll. Still down 7 points, but that is way up from a few weeks ago.

11 posted on 04/18/2012 2:44:50 PM PDT by cookcounty (We need Newt. The Black Belt Jaw-jitsu Master!)
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To: Bubba_Leroy

What about those who have decided that they will not vote for either one?

Don’t know how Gallup rates ir, but the effect is a vote FOR Obama. Just like any third party.


12 posted on 04/18/2012 2:44:58 PM PDT by SoFloFreeper
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To: Bubba_Leroy

They are irrelevant.


13 posted on 04/18/2012 2:46:01 PM PDT by bert (K.E. N.P. +12 ..... Crucifixion is coming)
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To: bert

Woohoo! I am irrelevant! This feels like the same point when they pushed Dole on us, though in that case I voted for the man.


14 posted on 04/18/2012 2:52:51 PM PDT by Ingtar (When I donate to FR, it does not take the money and run as every politician I donate to does)
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To: SoFloFreeper

Not to be too bold here, but if this keeps up it’s going to be a blowout on Super Tuesday, it won’t even be close. That’s saying something, because we had way better candidates than Mittens.


15 posted on 04/18/2012 2:57:42 PM PDT by erod (This Chicagoan will crawl over broken glass to vote the fake Chicagoan Obama out!)
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To: SoFloFreeper

I beleive it was at about this time Reagan was beating Carter by about 14%.


16 posted on 04/18/2012 3:33:23 PM PDT by mosesdapoet (The best way to punish a - country is let professors run it. Fredrick the Great p/p)
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To: mosesdapoet

I beleive it was at about this time Reagan was beating Carter by about 14%.

Your history is probably as accurate as your spelling.


17 posted on 04/18/2012 3:59:36 PM PDT by SoFloFreeper
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To: SoFloFreeper

As they say, if an incumbent is below 50 percent, he’s toast. More than 80 percent of “undecided” voters go AWAY from the incumbent.

If there’s anything worse than Democrats campaigning, it’s Democrats campaigning DESPERATELY. This will probably end up being one of the ugliest campaigns of all time.


18 posted on 04/18/2012 4:19:45 PM PDT by ObamaMustGo2012 (Obama Must Go In 2012)
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To: cookcounty

Romney is no conservative Republican and as such is unacceptable to the majority of conservative voters.

I look at it this way: if Murkowski can win as a write-in in Alaska, that gives the resto of us hope that Gingrich can, too, win as a write in against Obama.


19 posted on 04/18/2012 5:25:55 PM PDT by SatinDoll
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To: SoFloFreeper

” my comment was spelled” I beleive it was at about this time Reagan was beating Carter by about 14%. and your cute response was this...
“Your history is probably as accurate as your spelling”

OK little man... Your snarky reply doesn’t answer the question ...So what were the polling figures where Reagan flipped the polls and why isn’t your guy doing any better than 4% against this disaster of a leader ?

In fact he’s scaring the hell out guys like Kudlow who’s been backing him with his tax the rich B/S...BTW It was not Carter but Mondale but you didn’t know that, in April 80 Reagan began to jump ahead of Carter

There is nothing reassuring about this poll...It’s worrysome.

.


20 posted on 04/18/2012 6:16:44 PM PDT by mosesdapoet (The best way to punish a - country is let professors run it. Fredrick the Great p/p)
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To: mosesdapoet

Settle down lady. Learn how to take a joke.

Reagan, as I recall, didn’t have a solid lead in the polls until the final days of the campaign...hotair.com pointed out a few days ago that this cycle is the first time since Gallup began doing daily polls that the incumbent BEGAN the race behind the principal challenger.

You were the one who made the assertion Reagan was 14 points ahead—so the burden is on you to prove it. :) But I’m not really interested in carrying on this any longer. Your syntax and punctuation are atrocious and I find that kind of conversation boring.

To make you feel like you’ve gotten the best of me, though, I’ll let you flame away—and I won’t respond. That’ll leave you with the weak satisfaction of being able to say “I really told him off!” :)

Good night.


21 posted on 04/18/2012 7:31:22 PM PDT by SoFloFreeper
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To: ObamaMustGo2012

I recall reading that in the 1980 contest, Carter knew in the last 48 to 72 hours that MOST of the undecideds were breaking BIG TIME for Reagan.

Seems to me Obama and Company know he has lost the Independents, most Whites, and the Blacks and Youth demographics aren’t as enthused as they were 4 years ago.

Gas prices suck a root—and the soccer moms know it—and Wall Street looks at this clown and say “Yeah, let’s vote for you so you can endorse that Occupy Bunch? Fuggetaboutit!”

Unless he can really really really pull off some voter fraud nationwide (which is a distinct possibility, as he IS a Chicago thug), I see him losing. I will dance in the streets.


22 posted on 04/18/2012 7:35:05 PM PDT by SoFloFreeper
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To: SoFloFreeper

Obama is going to clean his clock. These polls are pointless to me. There is no way at all Romney can hold up the next few months. He’s a horrible politician and a lying fraud, and is going to get annihilated in November.

And the rest of us are screwed.


23 posted on 04/19/2012 12:03:30 PM PDT by hitchwolf
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To: SoFloFreeper; mosesdapoet
Gallup results through 1980...


24 posted on 04/19/2012 12:51:37 PM PDT by Lazlo in PA (Now living in a newly minted Red State.)
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To: SatinDoll
It’ll be Newt Gingrich as a write-in.

There will be quite a few of us that will do the same.

25 posted on 04/19/2012 2:02:13 PM PDT by EGPWS (Trust in God, question everyone else)
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To: Lazlo in PA

Interesting chart. What the heck happened in August to have the perpetually lousy CARTER jump back into the lead? Was that the ill fated desert rescue of the hostages?? I thought that happened in April.


26 posted on 04/19/2012 2:10:56 PM PDT by SoFloFreeper
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To: SoFloFreeper

Convention bounce. The Rat Convention was in the middle of August that year.


27 posted on 04/19/2012 2:24:59 PM PDT by Lazlo in PA (Now living in a newly minted Red State.)
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To: SoFloFreeper
What the heck happened in August to have the perpetually lousy CARTER jump back into the lead?

Democrat convention. Candidates always get a post-convention bump.

28 posted on 04/19/2012 2:36:58 PM PDT by okie01
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To: SoFloFreeper
I recall reading that in the 1980 contest, Carter knew in the last 48 to 72 hours that MOST of the undecideds were breaking BIG TIME for Reagan.

If my memory is correct, Pat Caddell (Carter's pollster) broke the news to him on Air Force One the night before the election that he was going to lose, and probably lose big.

One of the happier days of my life, to be sure.

29 posted on 04/19/2012 2:42:40 PM PDT by Marathoner (2 goals this year: (1) S##tcan Obamacare; (2) S##tcan Obama)
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To: Bubba_Leroy
-"What about those who have decided that they will not vote for either one? "

You mean the 1%'ters?

30 posted on 04/19/2012 5:04:55 PM PDT by LibFreeUSA (Pick Your Poison)
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To: Lazlo in PA

Harris Polls 1980 Reagan / Carter

January 36/59
February 32/64
March 40/58
April* 48/45
May* 42/33
June* 51/44
July* 61/33
August* 48/28
September* 41/37
October 9* 43/39
October 22* 42/39
October 27* 45/42
November 2* 45/40
November 4*
(Election Day) 46/41

*Reagan Leading


31 posted on 04/19/2012 7:31:03 PM PDT by princeofdarkness (The Obama Administration is circling the wagons. But the Truth Indians are using flaming arrows.)
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To: princeofdarkness

As you can see Reagan’s lead held steadily from April onward. I don’t know what other polls like NYT or Roper had.


32 posted on 04/19/2012 7:34:20 PM PDT by princeofdarkness (The Obama Administration is circling the wagons. But the Truth Indians are using flaming arrows.)
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To: SatinDoll

Same here. Pound sand, Romney, I have better things to do than vote for a liberal like you.


33 posted on 04/19/2012 8:59:47 PM PDT by arderkrag ("WAAHH WAAAHHH SCOTUS" is no excuse to vote for Romney. LOOKING FOR ROLEPLAYERS. Check Profile.)
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To: princeofdarkness
As you can see Reagan’s lead held steadily from April onward. I don’t know what other polls like NYT or Roper had.”

Gallup polls?
See post # 24.

Reagan didn't take the lead till May, and gave up the lead again in September, before finally coasting in to win.

34 posted on 04/20/2012 4:50:40 AM PDT by SmokingJoe
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To: SatinDoll
It’ll be Newt Gingrich as a write-in.

Yeah..and little green men from Mars will come take over America by election day too.

35 posted on 04/20/2012 4:52:41 AM PDT by SmokingJoe
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To: SoFloFreeper
Understand this romney shills.... romney CANNOT beat obomba and the fact that you're believing the obomba run media's report that he can, in this matter, shows how much of the koolaide you've been drinking. What's worse is you believe romney is better for this country than obomba is.

Shame on you.

36 posted on 04/20/2012 6:13:35 AM PDT by Whats-wrong-with-the-truth (Romney (aka - obomney)... Just put the (D) behind your name and be done with it.)
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To: SoFloFreeper

The Conservative Cause is clearly served by an Obama re-election rather than a Romney win.

A Right leaning/Conservative Congress can easily remain united behind an Obama re-election....whereas the same Congress will be sliced and diced by the RINOS if Romney is in the White House.

The Powers That Be fully understand this....


37 posted on 04/20/2012 6:20:38 AM PDT by mo (If you understand, no explanation is needed. If you don't understand, no explanation is possible.)
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To: SoFloFreeper
I will dance in the streets.

So will I. It will be a great burden lifted. I can't imagine being depressed for another 4 years waking up each day getting angry and upset as he continues to shred the Constitution and carry on as though he were king. Having him in charge and seeing his arrogant face on TV every day with a gloating media drooling over him for another 4, 5 or more years will just about put me over the edge and send me packing.

38 posted on 04/20/2012 6:22:19 AM PDT by jersey117
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To: Whats-wrong-with-the-truth
Yeah, it'll be a good day when Obama is defeated. I am certain.

I have been an avid student of history and politics since I was a child, and with the possible exception of James Buchanan, Barack Obama is the worst President in American history. The jury is still out on which one is worse.

Mitt Romney is not the Second Coming of Jesus, but he is not James Buchanan/Barack Obama bad.

39 posted on 04/20/2012 6:51:00 AM PDT by SoFloFreeper
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To: SoFloFreeper
"Mitt Romney is not the Second Coming of Jesus, but he is not James Buchanan/Barack Obama bad."

He's not? How do you figure?

Don't answer that. I don't need to read anymore romney talking points. His record speaks for itself. Romney's record, despite his rhetoric, clearly shows he's pro-baby killing. His record, despite his rhetoric, clearly shows he is... Well... I could list his liberal achievments all day but... Here is a sampling of what I'm talking about. Mittin's record summed up

And the truth shall set you free. No romney, no obomba, no way.

I for one am tired of the lip service from RINOs. PERIOD!

40 posted on 04/20/2012 7:19:48 AM PDT by Whats-wrong-with-the-truth (Romney (aka - obomney)... Just put the (D) behind your name and be done with it.)
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To: Whats-wrong-with-the-truth

I’ve seen it all. And yes, I am certain Mitt Romney is not a Barack Obama/James Buchanan clone.

I am also convinced you don’t know how bad those two (Obama/Buchanan) are and were.


41 posted on 04/20/2012 7:35:02 AM PDT by SoFloFreeper
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To: GonzoGOP
We are on the same page.

I will proudly vote for Newt in my primary and will vote third party in November.

But there are posters on this site who seem to be positively happy about any news that shows Obama beating Romney. That's too much for me. I can't go there.

42 posted on 04/20/2012 7:37:22 AM PDT by Notary Sojac (Ut veniant omnes)
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To: Notary Sojac

bingo.


43 posted on 04/20/2012 7:43:12 AM PDT by SoFloFreeper
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To: SatinDoll
that gives the rest of us hope that Gingrich can, too, win as a write in

Hey bartender! I'll have what the gal in satin over there is drinking. And make it a double!!

Most Freepers bashed Newt pretty hard until Palin declined to run, Perry and Cain dropped out, and Jim spent a few days zotting Newt bashers. My guess is that FR's write in vote will be split seven or eight ways.....

44 posted on 04/20/2012 7:44:59 AM PDT by Notary Sojac (Ut veniant omnes)
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To: SoFloFreeper
Question? Why is it that you obomney shills always assume everyone else is not as informed as you? Is it in your genes to be self-righteous, arrogant, pompous ***es or do you have to learn to be that way? I notice that none of you are ever able to provide any evidence to support your conclusions. Why is that? Is it because you think us peons aren't smart enough to grasp the understanding you think you possess or is it because you don't have any?

We've all heard what obomney says and we've all seen what he's done. The two do not jibe. It doesn't matter how many shrum induced hallucinations you may have about romney the reality of the situation is romney is NOT a Conservative. Romney is NOT anything more than an obomba type communist.

Vote for obomney if that's what floats your boat but don't try to pump smoke up our rears and convince us romney is anything more than his liberal record shows him to be.

Or provide some evidence that shows he is not a liberal.

A little leaven leaveneth the whole lump. Dead is dead. Poison in any form is still poison. All you shills are trying to do now is desensitize us into believing that romney is a little less evil than obomba. Evil is evil and romney is evil.

I won't vote for him.

45 posted on 04/20/2012 7:55:25 AM PDT by Whats-wrong-with-the-truth (Romney (aka - obomney)... Just put the (D) behind your name and be done with it.)
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To: Whats-wrong-with-the-truth
In 2008, I voted third party because I could not stomach McCain.

I tried to convince potential McCain voters to do the same.

But I respected their views. I did not insult them or call them "shills" or "bots" or "idiots" or "arrogant" or anything similar.

In 2012, I will vote third party because I can not stomach Romney.

I will try to convince potential Romney voters to do the same.

But I will respect their views. I will not insult them or call them "shills" or "bots" or "idiots" or "arrogant" or anything similar.

46 posted on 04/20/2012 8:05:33 AM PDT by Notary Sojac (Ut veniant omnes)
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To: Whats-wrong-with-the-truth

That is an awesome attack, if the standard is empty ad hominems.

I’m not “shilling” for Romney, I am making a distinction between the two likely nominees.

Romney won’t piss on Israel, Obama DID.
Romney won’t bow to a Saudi king, Obama DID.
Romney won’t shut down oil drilling, Obama DID.
Romney won’t print money to pay bills, Obama DID.

No one is saying Romney is the Messiah—that is the danger the liberals have fallen into with Obama.

I won’t walk around with blind hatred for someone who wants to replace, historically speaking, the worst Occupier of the Oval Office in modern history. If that is what makes YOU happy, you’re free to do it...I’d rather look to what CAN BE DONE to replace Obama—and right now, that looks to be voting for the Republican nominee.


47 posted on 04/20/2012 8:29:10 AM PDT by SoFloFreeper
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To: SoFloFreeper
That is an awesome attack, if the standard is empty ad hominems.
Is this akin to calling me a "racist" in order to stop me from expressing, as you put it (paraphrased) my uneducated opinion?
I’m not “shilling” for Romney, I am making a distinction between the two likely nominees.

Romney won’t piss on Israel, Obama DID.
And you know this how? Remember... The mormon church believe they are the true Jews.
Romney won’t bow to a Saudi king, Obama DID.
Again... How do you know? Nothing in obomba's 'known' past suggested that he'd bow to the saudi king either but whalla... He did just that. Judging by both men's records you cannot possibly know what romney would do. Hell... he may sell us to the saudis you don't know and you can't show us anything in his past that would say otherwise.
Romney won’t shut down oil drilling, Obama DID.
Again... How do you know? What bill or vote that he's proposed or voted for will support your conclusion? What business dealings has he ever been a part of would suggest that he's oil industry friendly?
Romney won’t print money to pay bills, Obama DID.
Wow... You're on a roll. H~O~W D~O Y~O~U K~N~O~W? Remember... Romney's the author of obomacare. Romney has helped move legislation through Massachusetts legislature that is every bit as bad as obomba's and now you want to try to claim that he didn't do it? Please. HOW DO YOU KNOW?
No one is saying Romney is the Messiah—that is the danger the liberals have fallen into with Obama.

I won’t walk around with blind hatred for someone who wants to replace, historically speaking, the worst Occupier of the Oval Office in modern history. If that is what makes YOU happy, you’re free to do it...I’d rather look to what CAN BE DONE to replace Obama—and right now, that looks to be voting for the Republican nominee.
Yeah... And you're not a romney shill ha ha ha.... Listen... obomney is no better than obomba PERIOD. The fact that you are unwilling to accept the fact that romney has NOT wrapped up the nomination is a testament to the fact that you are a romney shill. Romney has the full backing of the mormon cult as well as 100's of millions of dollars to buy your vote and by all indications he's accomplished his task. I'm not so easily bought. I look at a genuine conservative like Newt Gingrich operating on a shoestring budget giving obomney more than he can handle. A man that quite possibly will keep the looser obomney from disgracing the Republican party AGAIN as mcskidmark, dole and others in our past have done. We cannot afford to have romney as our nominee. I know this isn't sinking into that gray matter you call a brain but there really is NO DIFFERENCE between obomba and romney; except of course obomba will mop the floor with romney. Romney cannot win against obomba.

Look... You continue on with your day as you see fit. I cannot continue to repeatedly repeat myself. A wise person once said, if you argue with a fool there comes a time when onlookers cannot tell the difference between the two. I'm not going to call you a fool but I am going to quite arguing with you. If you're a romney supporter you're lost.

48 posted on 04/20/2012 9:17:30 AM PDT by Whats-wrong-with-the-truth (Romney (aka - obomney)... Just put the (D) behind your name and be done with it.)
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To: Notary Sojac
"But I will respect their views. I will not insult them or call them "shills" or "bots" or "idiots" or "arrogant" or anything similar."

Sorry to have offending your sensibilities. I'm not politically correct by any stretch of the imagination. I calls 'em how I sees 'em. I also find it interesting how it's me who should be "respecting" others "views" while you seem to not respect mine.
If I call that hypocrisy will you assume that I am calling you a hypocrite?

BTW... Romney has not yet been officially named the republican nominee. Sounds to me like you're giving up on Newt. Or... were you ever a Newt or Sarah or any conservative's supporter?

Just askin.

One more thing... I haven't called anyone a "bot" or "idiot". I'd appreciate it if you wouldn't try to put words into my mouth. Thanks.

49 posted on 04/20/2012 9:25:29 AM PDT by Whats-wrong-with-the-truth (Romney (aka - obomney)... Just put the (D) behind your name and be done with it.)
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To: Whats-wrong-with-the-truth

Okay lady. Good night.


50 posted on 04/20/2012 9:38:40 AM PDT by SoFloFreeper
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