Skip to comments.Undecided Lean to Insurgent
Posted on 04/18/2012 10:19:23 PM PDT by neverdem
With most current presidential polls of likely voters showing 9 percent to 10 percent undecided, the question of where the undecided votes go becomes of paramount importance.
To answer this question, I compared the final Gallup polls with the actual results in every race in which an incumbent president was opposing an insurgent since 1964. This included the Johnson-Goldwater race of 1964, the Nixon-McGovern race of 1972, the Carter-Ford race of 1976, the Reagan-Carter-Anderson race of 1980, the Reagan-Mondale race of 1984, the Clinton-Bush-Perot race of 1992, the Clinton-Dole race of 1996 and the Bush-Kerry race of 2004.
In these races, the undecided vote went heavily for the insurgent and the incumbent lost vote share between the final poll and the election, even when the incumbent was winning the contest easily overall. Six of eight presidents seeking reelection performed worse than the final Gallup poll predicted, while one finished the same (Reagan in 1984) and one gained votes (Bush in 2004). Seven of the nine insurgent candidates did better than the final Gallup survey predicted.
In 1964, Johnson lost 3 points to Goldwater at the end.
In 1972, Nixon lost 1 point to a third-party candidate.
In 1976, there was a 4-point...
There are other indications of a Republican landslide in the offing. Party identification has moved a net of eight points toward the GOP since the last election. In Senate races, there are currently eight Democratic-held seats where Republicans are now leading either the Democratic incumbent or the Democratic candidate for the open seat.
The predictions of a close election are all based on polling of registered voters not likely voters and fail to account for the shift in votes against the incumbent that has been the norm of the past presidential contests.
(Excerpt) Read more at realclearpolitics.com ...
I heard him on Hannity today. If taken with a large grain of salt, having dimension of approximately 100 miles on each side, things are not looking good for Princess Obama.
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Let’s all pray you’re right.
Won’t matter, Obama will win. The actual votes may say otherwise but Obama will “win”.
Well that is why the People (with a strong 2nd Amendment) are the sovereign power here and their word is a ultimate veto!
They can only cheat when it's close. If it's a referendum, it won't be close. The GOP got 60 % of the white vote for the first time in 2010. 60 % of the white vote in swing states is probably the lower limit in 2012. The rats' energy and environmental policies and race baiting will come back to haunt them.
Suburbia is 50 % of the vote. Think gas prices. Big cities are only 30 % of the vote. For the most part, rats have them already. If they try to steal the election, there will be more trouble than Florida in 2000.
Do you have a source for that?
By winning the urban vote which made up 30 percent of the electorate in 2008 in such a lopsided manner, Democrats could afford to lose rural areas, which were 21 percent of the overall vote. When Sarah Palin talked on the campaign trail about the real America, she was referring to a shrinking one.I've seen a similar breakdown elsewhere.
The biggest prize is the suburbs, where half of all voters live.
Thanks for the link. I want to use the info.