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GARY SHILLING: Here's Why The US Is About To Plunge Into A New Recession
TBI ^ | 4-20-2012 | Simone Fox

Posted on 04/20/2012 3:19:42 PM PDT by blam

GARY SHILLING: Here's Why The US Is About To Plunge Into A New Recession

Simone Foxman
April 20, 2012, 3:48 PM

Last week, Gary Shilling wrote a four-part series for Bloomberg View on why the U.S. economy is on the fast track to a brand new recession this year.

While he pointed to various data points and recounted a number of anecdotes to prove his point, Shilling's argument was simple: the consumer strength we saw earlier this year was fleeting and highly accommodative policy from the Federal Reserve and the possibility of more quantitative easing are the only things propping up markets right now.

In fact, the fundamentals of the economy lead him to believe "the U.S. economy is overdue for a recession."

Most importantly, Shilling writes that "consumer spending is the only major source of strength in the U.S. economy this year," but now all signs point to retrenchment:

While consumers should be "reduc[ing] debt and rebuild[ing] net worth, they have been doing the opposite lately."

However, continuing sluggishness in hiring lead Shilling to believe that this trend is unsustainable. "The U.S. has a lot of job openings, but having endured huge layoffs in recent years, employers are being very picky in new hiring," he writes. Further, the workforce isn't properly trained to fill many of the jobs available. And the job market is sticky: "homeowners whose mortgages exceed the value of their houses can’t easily sell their property if they take jobs in distant locations."

Despite a string of positive earnings reports this season and high corporate profit margins, Shilling argues that much of this is hot air. In fact, a closer look at industrial production and inventory paint a grim picture:

(snip)

(Excerpt) Read more at businessinsider.com ...


TOPICS: News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: anwr; collapse; economy; energy; garyshilling; keystonexl; mediawingofthednc; obamadeficit; obamarecession; opec; partisanmediashills; recession; recovery
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Obama is toast!
(Jimmie Carter is happy)
1 posted on 04/20/2012 3:19:44 PM PDT by blam
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To: blam

A new one? We’re not finished with the old one yet.


2 posted on 04/20/2012 3:21:01 PM PDT by SandyInSeattle (Never borrow batteries out of your smoke alarm!)
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To: blam

A “new” one?


3 posted on 04/20/2012 3:21:08 PM PDT by Las Vegas Ron (Rush Limbaugh = the Beethoven of talk radio - http://www.istandwithrush.org/)
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To: SandyInSeattle

I always wondered what it was like for my grandparents living through The Great Depression. After 3 years of Obama, I think that I have some idea.


4 posted on 04/20/2012 3:25:52 PM PDT by Tallguy (It's all 'Fun and Games' until somebody loses an eye!)
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To: blam
The U.S. economy is overdue for a recession. I believe that it entered the down phase of the long cycle in 2000, and the five to seven years that remain in the age of deleveraging are part of this period of weak economic growth and more frequent recessions.

Never has been a time before with below replacement demography.

5 posted on 04/20/2012 3:30:38 PM PDT by gusopol3
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To: blam

We’ve been in a recession since 2008. Geez look at the unemployment figures.


6 posted on 04/20/2012 3:34:06 PM PDT by delapaz
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To: blam

If the 52% cut their spending to the bone, Hussein Zer0 would be blown away this Fall.


7 posted on 04/20/2012 3:37:04 PM PDT by Paladin2
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To: delapaz

The minute it looked like the socialist Obama might win.. the economy tanked.

And it wont start getting better until it looks like he is going to be thrown out.


8 posted on 04/20/2012 3:39:09 PM PDT by TexasFreeper2009 (Go Newt!)
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To: Tallguy
After 3 years of Obama, I think that I have some idea.

No you don't but you likely will.

Your children go on the hobo yet, probably not. My father was 12 when he hit the hobo trail.

When I was born in 1938 my father was working, cutting cross ties for the railroad, in river bottom where work began on site at sunup and ended at sundown, six mile walk both ways, the pay was 50 cents a day.

I hope and pray that we will not see those days again, but if we continue to deny our roots, then I guess the ending that was written 6000 years or so ago will turn out to be true after all.

9 posted on 04/20/2012 3:39:39 PM PDT by itsahoot (I will not vote for Romney period, and by election day you won't like him either.)
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To: blam

Bill, if you ain’t got money you can’t spend it. Seems to be the case in this depression at least as far as I can see.

You can pump all the money you want into the system, Banks, but if the people have no jobs they can’t spend what they don’t have.


10 posted on 04/20/2012 3:41:00 PM PDT by Little Bill (Sorry)
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To: AdmSmith; AnonymousConservative; Berosus; bigheadfred; Bockscar; ColdOne; Convert from ECUSA; ...

Thanks blam.


11 posted on 04/20/2012 3:44:16 PM PDT by SunkenCiv (FReepathon 2Q time -- https://secure.freerepublic.com/donate/)
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To: SandyInSeattle; Las Vegas Ron

Yeah....I think they are afraid of the word “depression.”


12 posted on 04/20/2012 3:47:30 PM PDT by goodnesswins (2012..."We mutually pledge our Lives, our Fortunes, and our Sacred Honor")
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To: blam
We are not in a recession. We are in a technical depression and have been for a number of years. The Federal overspending has been covering this up, but you can only spend 10+ percent of the GDP in debt for so long before the money train ends and the real economy comes to bear.

As for Obama being toast - don't bet on it, especially if the GOP nominates one of the few people who could turn off enough conservative voters to give Obama a second term.

13 posted on 04/20/2012 3:51:02 PM PDT by kingu (Everything starts with slashing the size and scope of the federal government.)
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To: itsahoot
"When I was born in 1938 my father was working, cutting cross ties for the railroad, in river bottom where work began on site at sunup and ended at sundown, six mile walk both ways, the pay was 50 cents a day. "

I was born in 1943 and my mother told me (dad wouldn't talk about it) how my dad did the same as your father except he was plowing behind a one horse plow from sun-up to sun-down.
My grandmother (mothers mother) would give a free breakfast to who-ever chopped her cooking wood for the day each morning.
She had to change that because they kept coming earlier and earlier to beat the next guy there for the meal and were waking everyone chopping wood at 3:00AM.
My dad did tell me how they had to hide the plow down the water well when the bank came to repossess it.

14 posted on 04/20/2012 4:14:54 PM PDT by blam
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To: blam
"As for Obama being toast - don't bet on it, especially if the GOP nominates one of the few people who could turn off enough conservative voters to give Obama a second term. "

Rubio as VP would draw most conservatives and most Hispanics to vote for the GOP.

Obama is toast!

15 posted on 04/20/2012 4:17:49 PM PDT by blam
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To: blam

Ok, so who failed to tell me we’d come out of the recession?


16 posted on 04/20/2012 4:24:56 PM PDT by bgill
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Don't let FR fade away! Donate.
For every New Monthly Donor, another FReeper is donating $10.00!!
Please take this generous offer into consideration!

17 posted on 04/20/2012 5:23:42 PM PDT by RedMDer (https://support.woundedwarriorproject.org/default.aspx?tsid=93)
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To: blam

That would be the recession within the depression within the emerging stagflation.


18 posted on 04/20/2012 5:56:26 PM PDT by gotribe
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To: blam; itsahoot
"When I was born in 1938 my father was working, cutting cross ties for the railroad, in river bottom where work began on site at sunup and ended at sundown, six mile walk both ways, the pay was 50 cents a day. "

I was born in 1943 and my mother told me (dad wouldn't talk about it) how my dad did the same as your father except he was plowing behind a one horse plow from sun-up to sun-down.

My grandmother (mothers mother) would give a free breakfast to who-ever chopped her cooking wood for the day each morning.

She had to change that because they kept coming earlier and earlier to beat the next guy there for the meal and were waking everyone chopping wood at 3:00AM.

My dad did tell me how they had to hide the plow down the water well when the bank came to repossess it.

I can't even begin to imagine this..

19 posted on 04/20/2012 6:38:30 PM PDT by CommieCutter
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To: blam

Crisis By Design — Video Speaks for Itself

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2ccrjnHAA34&feature=related

Bankers above the Law. And corrupt as hell. About 10,000,000
heard the original broadcast.


20 posted on 04/20/2012 9:43:37 PM PDT by ex-Texan (Ecclesiastes 5:10 - 20)
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