Skip to comments.GARY SHILLING: Here's Why The US Is About To Plunge Into A New Recession
Posted on 04/20/2012 3:19:42 PM PDT by blam
GARY SHILLING: Here's Why The US Is About To Plunge Into A New Recession
April 20, 2012, 3:48 PM
Last week, Gary Shilling wrote a four-part series for Bloomberg View on why the U.S. economy is on the fast track to a brand new recession this year.
While he pointed to various data points and recounted a number of anecdotes to prove his point, Shilling's argument was simple: the consumer strength we saw earlier this year was fleeting and highly accommodative policy from the Federal Reserve and the possibility of more quantitative easing are the only things propping up markets right now.
In fact, the fundamentals of the economy lead him to believe "the U.S. economy is overdue for a recession."
Most importantly, Shilling writes that "consumer spending is the only major source of strength in the U.S. economy this year," but now all signs point to retrenchment:
While consumers should be "reduc[ing] debt and rebuild[ing] net worth, they have been doing the opposite lately."
However, continuing sluggishness in hiring lead Shilling to believe that this trend is unsustainable. "The U.S. has a lot of job openings, but having endured huge layoffs in recent years, employers are being very picky in new hiring," he writes. Further, the workforce isn't properly trained to fill many of the jobs available. And the job market is sticky: "homeowners whose mortgages exceed the value of their houses cant easily sell their property if they take jobs in distant locations."
Despite a string of positive earnings reports this season and high corporate profit margins, Shilling argues that much of this is hot air. In fact, a closer look at industrial production and inventory paint a grim picture:
(Excerpt) Read more at businessinsider.com ...
Poor people don't know they are poor unless someone tells them they are. We learned to survive and I would trade those hard times for what we see coming.
“I always wondered what it was like for my grandparents living through The Great Depression. After 3 years of Obama, I think that I have some idea.”
Insane deficit spending is shielding us from what people in the 1930’s experienced.
It is also setting the stage for INEVITABLE conditions which will be MUCH worse.
A few people are waking up. Why aren't people like Greenspan and Bernanke in prison ___ ? Madoff was small potatoes.
END TIMES Ping to the link just above via Ex-Texan
Thanks for the ping!
My very Christian (and wife of a preacher) told me many times that the only time she ever stole a thing in her life was a chicken from a neighbor because they were so hungry. She said God made that bird so dang tough, they could barely chew it.
If things were bad enough for my 20 year old grand mother to steal food... I don’t even want to know how bad it was.
My Mom And Dad lived through it as children. They are constantly telling me how it still ain't as Bad as then but it sure feels like it could get that way fast. Its because of the way our town is losing businesses and of the Unemployment.
Borrowed from our children and grandchildren and will never be repaid.
Courtesy of our corrupt Congress with both Dems and Repugs are standing in line for large corporate cash donations
Mr. Prediction waxed angry about "Economic Martial Law"
So too did stephenjohnbanker tell the truth 200%. All the naysayers were and are lying shills and most likely got nickels and dimes as payoffs to lie on FR.
It seems like the truth is often uninvited, unsought, unpreferred.
Thanks for the ping!
UNMITIGATED TREASONOUS HIDEOUSNESS FROM HELL.
. . . Now signed into law . . . a felony to politically protest where there are Secret Service members present.
American hasn’t just fallen in Alice’s rabbit hole.
She’s being energetically flushed to hell’s cesspool.
You were point man for a lonely group back then. I remember the abuse heaped upon you by the cheerleaders of the housing bubble.
I remember vividly, ex-Texan, and I knew you were right.
I was disgusted by the vicious attacks against you.
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