Skip to comments.The Generic Ballot Bomb
Posted on 04/20/2012 7:35:39 PM PDT by neverdem
At this point in a presidential election year, Americans are inundated with polls. Often these polls provide no real information at all, except the bias and the population samples of the polling organization.
As one example, consider this polling data released for April 16 showing the matchup between Obama and Romney. Depending upon the polling organization, Romney leads Obama by 2 (Gallup), trails Obama by 9 (CNN/Opinion Research), trails Obama by 4 (Reuters/Ipsos), or leads Obama by 3 (Rasmussen).
Presidential match-up polls are notoriously unpredictable six months before an election. Will the recent scandal involving Secret Service agents and prostitutes -- some perhaps even underage prostitutes -- during the president's visit to Colombia suppress his approval for a few weeks? Probably, but that is highly unlikely to swing a presidential election. Moreover, it is almost certain not to have much effect on the other races in 2012 -- Senate races, House races, six governorships, and thousands of state legislative seats.
There is, however, a poll which does show the partisan leaning of America: the generic congressional ballot. When a voter goes to the polls in November, a "generic" favoring of one party over another will often be the decisive factor in casting a ballot. Indeed, the huge sweep of Republicans up and down the ballot in 2010 can only be explained by this massive and generic rejection of Democrats. So this poll is as close to a straightforward question about which political party a respondent will support in the next election as any question asked in polls.
What does the generic congressional ballot say about 2012? Rasmussen asks likely voters which party the respondent intends to support in the next congressional election each week and announces the results every Monday. Over the last three years, likely voters in this poll...
(Excerpt) Read more at americanthinker.com ...
Rasmussen has been the most accurate over the last few years. The CNN and other polls usually show the democrat candidate as with a lead until the last month and then they start to creep toward the Rasmussen poll.
I’ve been saying it for awhile.
A ham sandwich could beat Obama this November.
Regardless of all the chit chat, Americans always vote their pocketbook. Obama’s been a total disaster on that front (or any other front).
The biggest mistake made by Republicans is they could have had anyone. But they went with Obama lite “because he could win”. Well they could have won with Palin or Newt. Somebody that could have been bold and a leader and actually shrunk government for a change.
Depending upon the polling organization, Romney leads Obama by 2 (Gallup), trails Obama by 9 (CNN/Opinion Research), trails Obama by 4 (Reuters/Ipsos), or leads Obama by 3 (Rasmussen).
Correct, but I think we really can shrink government. Sen. Coburn’s got a new book out and he shows how to cut some $360 billion, annually. That’s $3.6 trillion in a decade.
Here’s two links:
I think that the real action will be in Congress. If the American people are anxious to get out of debt and turn the country around a Romney candidacy and victory can be a good thing. Here’s why:
Romney’s raison de etre is “turn-arounds”. That’s his forte and he’ll be running on that “record”. That makes him a natural ally of fiscal conservatives in Congress. That’s a good thing for the country. I think he’ll be pro-growth and pro-energy and no worse than Bush on other domestic policies. The only area where I’m really worried is our foreign policy. I am concerned that some goofy RINO Exec. Office retreads will make their way back to power - Rice comes to mind.