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To: atc23

“Vote fraud only works if it’s really, really close......”

___________________________________________________________

I don’t think it will be close either. I base this on the following:

1. Obama has lost the independent vote and his doubling down on liberal issues will make it even worse.
2. His war on women has backfired and he will not get the women’s vote.
3. Back in 2008, there were around 10% republicans who voted for O, probably of guilt and to show their liberal friends they weren’t racist. That will not happen this time around.
4. I think the youth vote is up for grabs. The youth voted for O in 2008 but with unemployment in this age group so high, they will be cool to him in ‘12. Lets assume he wins this group.
5. O will win the black vote.
6. No enthusiasm. In 2008, there was A LOT of enthusiasm for Obama and that drove a high turnout for him. Today, there is NO enthusiasm for him. Even if Obama wins the youth and black vote, there will be low turnout for him this time.
7. He will win the union vote but that is a given for dem politicans. Actually, I have run into more and more union people who will not vote for him this time.
8. Lastly, Obama has lost the the manufactured “magic”. When he travels and speaks, it is to smaller empty auditoriums. Can you imagine him on the campaign stump in August-October?? In 2008, he was drawing Tens of thousands. This time, he will draw only thousands in dem friendly areas. Remember that Biden got booed in a St. Pat’s parade in Pittsburgh when he got away from the beginning of the parade where the unions were.

Voter fraud only works in close elections. Based on the above, Romney should be 5-10 points ahead in states races, making vote fraud not effective.


21 posted on 04/24/2012 7:30:51 AM PDT by TMA62 (Al Sharpton - The North Korea of race relations)
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To: TMA62

Obama hasn’t even begun to spend money yet.

A liberal like Romney with his record of flip-flops doesn’t stand a chance.

He’ll be licking obama’s boots just like lap-dog mccain was in 2008


22 posted on 04/24/2012 7:37:55 AM PDT by xzins (Vote Goode Not Evil! (the lesser of 2 evils is still evil))
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To: TMA62
I think the only thing that may save him is an Azz-wupping of Iran or North Korea.

North Korea is out because the Chicoms might lob nukes into DC or Kenya and hit him and his family.

So if I had some money, I would bet Iran gets smashed in late September so he can take the economy off the table and run as a Hero in September - October.

26 posted on 04/24/2012 8:29:24 AM PDT by PA-RIVER
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To: TMA62

“Vote fraud only works if it’s really, really close......”

___________________________________________________________

I don’t think it will be close either. I base this on the following:

1. Obama has lost the independent vote and his doubling down on liberal issues will make it even worse.
2. His war on women has backfired and he will not get the women’s vote.
3. Back in 2008, there were around 10% republicans who voted for O, probably of guilt and to show their liberal friends they weren’t racist. That will not happen this time around.
4. I think the youth vote is up for grabs. The youth voted for O in 2008 but with unemployment in this age group so high, they will be cool to him in ‘12. Lets assume he wins this group.
5. O will win the black vote.
6. No enthusiasm. In 2008, there was A LOT of enthusiasm for Obama and that drove a high turnout for him. Today, there is NO enthusiasm for him. Even if Obama wins the youth and black vote, there will be low turnout for him this time.
7. He will win the union vote but that is a given for dem politicans. Actually, I have run into more and more union people who will not vote for him this time.
8. Lastly, Obama has lost the the manufactured “magic”. When he travels and speaks, it is to smaller empty auditoriums. Can you imagine him on the campaign stump in August-October?? In 2008, he was drawing Tens of thousands. This time, he will draw only thousands in dem friendly areas. Remember that Biden got booed in a St. Pat’s parade in Pittsburgh when he got away from the beginning of the parade where the unions were.

Voter fraud only works in close elections. Based on the above, Romney should be 5-10 points ahead in states races, making vote fraud not effective.


Good analysis and perspective, TMA62.


32 posted on 04/24/2012 8:41:56 AM PDT by unkus (Silence Is Consent)
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To: TMA62

>>I don’t think it will be close either. I base this on the following:

Me too.

Most blacks are NOT enthusiastic about voting Obama. Almost NO ONE but the craziest liberal is enthusiastic about Obama. The same could be said about Romney, but there are people enthusiastic about voting Obama’s ass out of office any way they can. I’m guessing 5-10% margin of victory for the Republican nominee.


37 posted on 04/24/2012 9:18:05 AM PDT by struggle (http://killthegovernment.wordpress.com/)
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To: TMA62
1. Obama has lost the independent vote and his doubling down on liberal issues will make it even worse.

Big time..."independents" are uninterested in his fake smile this time around.

2. His war on women has backfired and he will not get the women’s vote.

I disagree. Single women will vote en masse for this idiot...he is a sugar daddy for many of them.

3. Back in 2008, there were around 10% republicans who voted for O, probably of guilt and to show their liberal friends they weren’t racist. That will not happen this time around.

Absolutely....at least this is true: more Democrats will vote Republican than vice-versa.

4. I think the youth vote is up for grabs. The youth voted for O in 2008 but with unemployment in this age group so high, they will be cool to him in ‘12. Lets assume he wins this group.

I agree...Rush Limbaugh just noted a study that younger voters are moving faster toward the Republican party...Obama is the William Hung of politics:


He was amusing, made you feel good and was so self assured...but got old REAL REAL quick.

5. O will win the black vote.
Huge. They are in the tank, sadly.

6. No enthusiasm. In 2008, there was A LOT of enthusiasm for Obama and that drove a high turnout for him. Today, there is NO enthusiasm for him. Even if Obama wins the youth and black vote, there will be low turnout for him this time.
Enthusiasm is indeed weak...the national and local news media are soooo excited when this clown does something. Few others care.

7. He will win the union vote but that is a given for dem politicans. Actually, I have run into more and more union people who will not vote for him this time.
Yes, he'll win it...but not by as big a margin as last time.

8. Lastly, Obama has lost the the manufactured “magic”. When he travels and speaks, it is to smaller empty auditoriums. Can you imagine him on the campaign stump in August-October?? In 2008, he was drawing Tens of thousands. This time, he will draw only thousands in dem friendly areas. Remember that Biden got booed in a St. Pat’s parade in Pittsburgh when he got away from the beginning of the parade where the unions were.

Good point. Limbaugh pointed out Obama was in a 9,000 seat auditorium today--when the last time he campaigned there was a 22,000 seat auditorium. He is a yawning bore.

44 posted on 04/24/2012 11:14:35 AM PDT by SoFloFreeper
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To: TMA62; SoFloFreeper

SINGLE/DIVORCED women will always overwhelmingly vote for the socialist that promises to be the de facto father/husband without the “downsides” of having an actual man around.

Married women/mothers will vote for family autonomy, ie, against the socialist.


46 posted on 04/24/2012 11:21:06 AM PDT by MrB (The difference between a Humanist and a Satanist - the latter knows whom he's working for)
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To: TMA62

:: I have run into more and more union people who will not vote for him this time. ::

Oh, they’ll vote for Obamugabe this time. Whether they know it or not, the union will make sure of it.


47 posted on 04/24/2012 11:40:43 AM PDT by Cletus.D.Yokel (Catastrophic Anthropogenic Climate Alterations - The acronym explains the science.)
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To: TMA62
1. Obama has lost the independent vote and his doubling down on liberal issues will make it even worse.

Excellent observation. Obama must fire up his base, and to do so he alienates independents.

2. His war on women has backfired and he will not get the women’s vote.

Partially correct. Obama will lose married women, but likely keep single women, but not in 2008 numbers.

3. Back in 2008, there were around 10% republicans who voted for O, probably of guilt and to show their liberal friends they weren’t racist. That will not happen this time around.

100% accurate.

6. No enthusiasm. In 2008, there was A LOT of enthusiasm for Obama and that drove a high turnout for him. Today, there is NO enthusiasm for him. Even if Obama wins the youth and black vote, there will be low turnout for him this time.

This is the single biggest threat to Obama. Blacks and youth have never voted in large numbers. In 2008 they did. The youth vote will stay home this election, and honestly, the black turnout will be much lower. The historic election was 2008, not 2012.

7. He will win the union vote but that is a given for dem politicans. Actually, I have run into more and more union people who will not vote for him this time.

I think he will lose the traditional blue-collar union vote outside of GM and Chrysler UAW members. The economy is a disaster.

8. Lastly, Obama has lost the the manufactured “magic”. When he travels and speaks, it is to smaller empty auditoriums. Can you imagine him on the campaign stump in August-October?? In 2008, he was drawing Tens of thousands. This time, he will draw only thousands in dem friendly areas.

A great point, and something to keep an eye out for. Look for the lie by omission, that is the MSM not showing crowd shots, or only crowd shots in certain cities and not including them at other events.

However, looking at Rasmussen's latest poll, Obama is still holding near 50% in approval.

Obama's highest Total Disapprove was 58%. Today it is 53%. A 5% improvement.

Obama's highest Strong Disapprove was 47%. Today it is 41% A 6% improvement.

Obama's lowest Total Approve was 41%. Today it is 46%. A 5% improvement.

Obama's lowest Strong Approve was 18%. Today it is at 23%. A 5% improvement.

We need a 5% swing back towards historic Obama approval lows. I think we will see that by August.

Gasoline prices are trending back down over the last two weeks, but I think Obama's approval will decline due to the stagnant economy. Call it "Obama Fatigue".

We are already seeing former supporters abandon Obama, and Democrat politicians distancing themselves from Obama, and in the case of Joe Manchin (D-WV), throwing Obama under the bus.

I also believe there will be an increase in the unemployment rate and potentially a double-dip recession in the next few months.

The wild cards are the SCOTUS decision on ObamaCare and Iran. I think if any part of ObamaCare is overturned, it will paint a big "L" on Obama's forehead. He will be seen as a loser. Iran's actions could cause another spike in oil prices.

49 posted on 04/24/2012 12:18:44 PM PDT by magellan
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