Skip to comments.The Israel-US divide on Iran
Posted on 04/24/2012 5:39:48 AM PDT by Dave346
The round of talks between the six powers and Iran over its nuclear program was held in Istanbul, and another round is scheduled in May. Despite a decade of empty dialogue, both sides have an interest in holding negotiations: Iran seeks to avoid a tightening of the sanctions against it, and US President Barack Obama wants to postpone hard decisions, at least until after the elections. Although the two sides' opening positions are far apart, it is in the nature of negotiations to bring the position of the parties closer. Both sides have a clear interest in creating the image of a successful process, if only to push back the option of an Israeli strike.
The US red line refers to an actual Iranian breakthrough toward a nuclear weapon, and the Americans say that they will know of this in advance. Jerusalem is not sure, and it is not prepared to take the risk. The result is that reaching a compromise with Iran means widening the differences and disputes between Israel and the US. While Israel's semiofficial red line is quite clear, and Iran is liable to cross it soon, the US red line is very blurry and hard to distinguish, but it conforms with US policy which seeks to postpone the day of reckoning, at least until after the November elections.
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I suspect NOT a "Israel-US divide", but an "Israel-muzzie 0bama" divide. Most Americans would be happy if Israel removed the Iranian nuclear threat. 0bama doesn't speak for me!
Here is my take on what will happen.
An updated version of the accompanying spreadsheet is available at the following link.
In my estimation, this will happen before summer 2012.
If youd like to be on or off, please FR mail me.