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Net Migration from Mexico Falls to Zero—and Perhaps Less
Pew Hispanic Center ^ | April 23, 2012 | Jeffrey Passel, D’Vera Cohn and Ana Gonzalez-Barrera

Posted on 04/24/2012 8:15:28 PM PDT by neverdem

The largest wave of immigration in history from a single country to the United States has come to a standstill. After four decades that brought 12 million current immigrants—more than half of whom came illegally—the net migration flow from Mexico to the United States has stopped—and may have reversed, according to a new analysis by the Pew Hispanic Center of multiple government data sets from both countries.

The standstill appears to be the result of many factors, including the weakened U.S. job and housing construction markets, heightened border enforcement, a rise in deportations, the growing dangers associated with illegal border crossings, the long-term decline in Mexico’s birth rates and changing economic conditions in Mexico.

The report is based on the Center’s analysis of data from five different Mexican government sources and four U.S. government sources. The Mexican data come from the Mexican Decennial Censuses (Censos de Población y Vivienda), the Mexican Population Counts (Conteos de Población y Vivienda), the National Survey of Demographic Dynamics (Encuesta Nacional de la Dinámica Demográfica or ENADID), the National Survey of Occupation and Employment (Encuesta Nacional de Ocupación y Empleo or ENOE), and the Survey on Migration at the Northern Border of Mexico (Encuesta sobre Migración en la Frontera Norte de México or EMIF-Norte).

The U.S. data come from the 2010 Census, the American Community Survey, the Current Population Survey and the U.S. Department of Homeland Security.

Among the report’s key findings:

In the five-year period from 2005 to 2010, about 1.4 million Mexicans immigrated to the United States and about 1.4 million Mexican immigrants and their U.S.-born children moved from the United States to Mexico. In the five-year period a decade earlier (1995 to 2000), about 3 million Mexicans had immigrated to the U.S. and fewer than 700,000 Mexicans and their U.S. born-children had moved from the U.S. to Mexico.

This sharp downward trend in net migration has led to the first significant decrease in at least two decades in the number of unauthorized Mexican immigrants living in the U.S.—to 6.1 million in 2011, down from a peak of nearly 7 million in 2007. Over the same period the number of authorized Mexican immigrants rose modestly, from 5.6 million in 2007 to 5.8 million in 2011.

Mexicans now comprise about 58% of the unauthorized immigrants living in the United States. They also account for 30% of all U.S. immigrants. The next largest country of origin for U.S. immigrants, China, accounts for just 5% of the nation’s stock of nearly 40 million immigrants.

Apprehensions of Mexicans trying to cross the border illegally have plummeted by more than 70% in recent years, from more than 1 million in 2005 to 286,000 in 2011—a likely indication that fewer unauthorized immigrants are trying to cross. This decline has occurred at a time when funding in the U.S. for border enforcement—including more agents and more fencing—has risen sharply.

As apprehensions at the border have declined, deportations of unauthorized Mexican immigrants—some of them picked up at work or after being arrested for other criminal violations—have risen to record levels. In 2010, nearly 400,000 unauthorized immigrants—73% of them Mexicans—were deported by U.S. authorities.

Although most unauthorized Mexican immigrants sent home by U.S. authorities say they plan to try to return, a growing share say they will not try to come back to the U.S. According to a survey by Mexican authorities of repatriated immigrants, 20% of labor migrants in 2010 said they would not return, compared with just 7% in 2005.

Looking back over the entire span of U.S. history, no country has ever sent as many immigrants to this country as Mexico has in the past four decades. However, when measured not in absolute numbers but as a share of the immigrant population at the time, immigration waves from Germany and Ireland in the late 19th century equaled or exceeded the modern wave from Mexico.

Download complete report(PDF).


TOPICS: Culture/Society; Front Page News; Government; Mexico; US: Arizona; US: California; US: New Mexico; US: Texas
KEYWORDS: aliens; arizona; buildtheborderwall; california; illegalaliens; illegalimmigrants; mexico; newmexico; selfdeportation; texas
Pew usually has a liberal slant, IMHO, but if this is true, then rats will be in a bind.
1 posted on 04/24/2012 8:15:31 PM PDT by neverdem
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To: neverdem

Understandable - unfortunately, has no bearing on the current situation. We still have to enforce the law.


2 posted on 04/24/2012 8:17:46 PM PDT by Deagle (nOT Get a)
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To: neverdem

What a crock of sh**. This is misdirection to try and take the subject of illegals out of the election campaigns.


3 posted on 04/24/2012 8:22:54 PM PDT by calex59
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To: neverdem
Election year cow crap IMO..... polidiots and presstitutes pandering to the idiot voters again.

They will tell their co-conspirators.... I read it in the paper so it must be truuuuue !

Stay Safe Doc !..:o)

4 posted on 04/24/2012 8:23:11 PM PDT by Squantos (Be polite. Be professional. But have a plan to kill everyone you meet)
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To: neverdem

The commie libs in the state run propaganda machine have been celebrating for the past 10 years the fact that the invasion from the south will make whitey a minority by 2025 if Algore’s prophecies don’t come true and destroy the Earf first. I wonder if they’re going to adjust the date.


5 posted on 04/24/2012 8:26:58 PM PDT by FlingWingFlyer (It's time for the 47% to start paying their "fair share" of income taxes.)
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To: neverdem

Maybe the Mexicans have realized that things are better in Mexico than here right now. They should avoid coming up here until things shake themselves out.


6 posted on 04/24/2012 8:26:58 PM PDT by factoryrat (e are the producers, the creators. Grow it, mine it, build it.)
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To: neverdem

Self deportation. Someone tell Chrissy Matthews.


7 posted on 04/24/2012 8:27:10 PM PDT by Oldeconomybuyer (The problem with socialism is that you eventually run out of other people's money.)
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To: neverdem
I do not believe this 'study' one bit.

Meanwhile, the 0bozo administration fights State Voter ID laws and State Immigration Laws all the while selectively enforcing immigration laws and in effect granting amnesty to illegals --all this premised upon making the claim that they can not handle the workload that this 'study' suggests does not exist.

8 posted on 04/24/2012 8:28:09 PM PDT by DBeers (†)
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To: calex59

It is very coincidental that this should be announced just when the supremes hear arguments regarding Arizona’s SB1070.


9 posted on 04/24/2012 8:31:50 PM PDT by pfflier
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To: DBeers

I would offer this simple view. Lots of houses stand empty right now...which five years ago...had owners in them and always doing some type of minor renovation. From my local area in Arlington, VA...I’d say that half of all the small renovation deals...were done by illegals. If the houses empty....small-time renovation has come to a close. Even if you do occupy a house...there’s fair odds that you are pretty cramped on money for improving your residence.

So I’m thinking that street illegal that you used to hire for a day of drywall work....has decided enough is enough...and returned to his hometown.

You have to admit...the US economy in most small towns in America...is stagnant. Without cash flow...why would an illegal in hopes of finding day-to-day employment linger around?


10 posted on 04/24/2012 8:46:10 PM PDT by pepsionice
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To: neverdem

As part of the lowering unemployment rate is actually caused by people running out of benefits, so this stat of Mexicans no longer coming to America may be caused by the fact that all of them are already here, just waiting...waiting for the word from on high.


11 posted on 04/24/2012 8:52:01 PM PDT by Ghost of Philip Marlowe (Prepare for survival. (Ron Paul is the Lyndon Larouche of the 21st century.))
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To: neverdem

When the ILLEGAL migtration falls to negative 12 million (or whatever the number is now) then our work is done.


12 posted on 04/24/2012 8:52:31 PM PDT by Gil4 (Sometimes it's not low self-esteem - it's just accurate self-assessment.)
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To: factoryrat

“Maybe Mexicans have realized things are better in Mexico than here right now...’’<< They should. Mexico’s GDP was 5% last year. Damn sight better than ours was at an anemic 1.2%.


13 posted on 04/24/2012 9:02:46 PM PDT by jmacusa (Political correctness is cultural Marxism. I'm not a Marxist.)
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To: DBeers

I do.

Demographics, demographics, demographics. Demographics is destiny.

TFR in Mexico is only 2.27 children/women.

If we take 2.1 children as the ratio for population balance, that leaves 0.17 free to emigrate. That means only about 8 percent of the entire population would be free to emigrate, or only around 8 million people. Max. Even if you had unrestricted borders you’d get 8 million mexicans in the US over a period of 20 years.


14 posted on 04/24/2012 9:05:12 PM PDT by JCBreckenridge
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To: neverdem; Liz; AuntB; SandRat; fieldmarshaldj

This is a most interesting development. If this is accurate, the border security issue may work itself out and become less of an issue. The big question is whether this is a temporary blip caused largely by the recession or is it the beginning of something long term?


15 posted on 04/24/2012 9:18:43 PM PDT by Clintonfatigued (A liberal's compassion is limited to the size of other peoples' paychecks)
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To: neverdem
During that time the number of illegal immigrants from Mexico residing in the U.S. fell sharply from 7 million to about 6.1 million. Those estimates are based on data from the U.S. Census Bureau.



HA HA HA HA HA HA!




There are probably at LEAST a million illegals in the greater DFW area all by itself!

We have entire swaths of towns that are above 95%.

And that is nothing compared to Houston and San Antonio.

The population of Texas alone could account for this clowns' entire "estimate."

Area Name Texas

Total 25,883,999

Anglo 11,468,216

Black 2,978,813

Hispanic 10,219,674

Other 1,217,296

http://www.dshs.state.tx.us/chs/popdat/ST2011.shtm

Estimating that about half the "hispanic" population is comprised of illegals that comes to five million just in Texas.

.

16 posted on 04/24/2012 9:23:10 PM PDT by TLI ( ITINERIS IMPENDEO VALHALLA)
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To: JCBreckenridge
I do

This is what I have a problem believing: "This sharp downward trend in net migration has led to the first significant decrease in at least two decades in the number of unauthorized Mexican immigrants living in the U.S.—to 6.1 million in 2011, down from a peak of nearly 7 million in 2007"

In my opinion MANY illegals have been authorized under 0b0z0's selective enforcement strategy comprising virtual amnesty.

I contend that the count comprising the actual number of illegals here in the US depends upon who does the counting and what the definition of 'authorized' is that they are using.

17 posted on 04/24/2012 9:45:11 PM PDT by DBeers (†)
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To: factoryrat
Gee, you mean that they didn't move here because America was a less oppressive society and they could better their lives living in freedom, but actually they only came for the cash? I'm shocked!

This is actually what everyone here should remind any liberal that tries to to make you feel guilty about sending illegal aliens back.

18 posted on 04/24/2012 9:46:16 PM PDT by VanShuyten ("a shadow...draped nobly in the folds of a gorgeous eloquence.")
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To: neverdem

Good Hunting... from Varmint Al

19 posted on 04/24/2012 9:49:24 PM PDT by Varmint Al
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To: DBeers

Agreed. If they are illegal aliens, then they aren’t going to be documented, then how can you get an accurate count? It’s the same as all the ‘homeless’ surveys.


20 posted on 04/24/2012 9:51:39 PM PDT by JCBreckenridge
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To: neverdem

I’ll let you all know when the million illegals who live in my immediate neighborhood decide to return home. Don’t anybody hold their breath.


21 posted on 04/24/2012 9:58:24 PM PDT by Pelham (Marco Rubio, la raza trojan horse.)
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To: DBeers

I don’t believe the study either. In the first place I do believe that the number of illegals has always far exceeded the few million any study claims. Returning to Mexico? Not in Texas. They have continued to pour over the border, cranking out more babies and taking over.


22 posted on 04/24/2012 10:19:01 PM PDT by Grams A (The Sun will rise in the East in the morning and God is still on his throne.)
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To: neverdem

Bahlohneee..... Or Chorizo .....


23 posted on 04/24/2012 10:56:32 PM PDT by Vendome (Don't take life so seriously, you won't live through it anyway)
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To: neverdem

And we know this exactly HOW?


24 posted on 04/24/2012 11:59:07 PM PDT by MasterGunner01 (11)
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To: neverdem

Re: “Net Migration” Falls To Zero

So, the number of illegal Mexicans coming in EQUALS the number of illegal Mexicans going back.

And that’s portrayed as a victory?


25 posted on 04/25/2012 1:06:45 AM PDT by zeestephen
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To: neverdem

Smoke and mirrors. Ask any of the service providers if they’re still under the gun for illegal immigrant services.

There are between 20 and 35 million illegals in the United States today. And if there aren’t, it’s because they have already been fast-tracked to citizenship.


26 posted on 04/25/2012 1:49:07 AM PDT by DoughtyOne (Okay, now lets see if the RNC, Rove, and Card can get him elected without their core base. Game on!)
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To: neverdem

No, they screwed up the economy even worse as a matter of national security. Now ElQaeda will have a harder time sneaking into the country, and all those Berlitz Spanish courses have gone to waste. There is a war on terror going on. And now we have more secure borders, because people are crossing in the opposite direction./s


27 posted on 04/25/2012 3:18:31 AM PDT by Eleutheria5 (End the occupation. Annex today.)
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To: neverdem

I am happy to realize that the PEW people have a huge force of members standing at all points along our border (standing no more than 10 feet from each other) interviewing invaders from the south and illegals fleeing from the north back into Mexico, asking them questions on why they are either entering and leaving the U.S..

After all, that is the only way they could get their data for this amazing study....RIGHT?

What an accomplishment!

For anyone who believes this study, call me, for I have a business deal to speak to you about...and it can make you very wealthy without hardly any work what-so-ever...just a little “seed money.”


28 posted on 04/25/2012 4:10:00 AM PDT by DH (Once the tainted finger of government touches anything the rot begins)
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To: FlingWingFlyer

that the invasion from the south will make whitey a minority by 2025


You got your date wrong...here in the southern border states whitey has been a minority and each year the ratio increases. Here in my town is South Texas we only constitute 15% of the population.


29 posted on 04/25/2012 4:14:21 AM PDT by DH (Once the tainted finger of government touches anything the rot begins)
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To: neverdem

This ‘study’ isn’t worth the paper it’s written on. They are still pouring over the border into the US.


30 posted on 04/25/2012 4:37:05 AM PDT by chessplayer
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To: neverdem

Naaah, this is just trying to reassuringly soften up the public for the coming immigration legislation attempts this fall.


31 posted on 04/25/2012 4:38:40 AM PDT by mo (If you understand, no explanation is needed. If you don't understand, no explanation is possible.)
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To: neverdem
This is BS. In this article it says that 286,000 illegals were apprehended in 2011. So there must be many times that number that made it into the U.S. illegally in 2011 at least a million.

Maybe less illegals Cause Obama has destroyed all jobs in the U.S.

“Apprehensions of Mexicans trying to cross the border illegally have plummeted by more than 70% in recent years, from more than 1 million in 2005 to 286,000 in 2011”

32 posted on 04/25/2012 5:20:12 AM PDT by rurgan (Sunset all laws at 3 years. China makes everything taking U.S. ability to manufacture)
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To: Clintonfatigued

If this is true, it’s only because they are ALL here already and no one wants to admit it!


33 posted on 04/25/2012 6:14:52 AM PDT by AuntB (Illegal immigration is simply more "share the wealth" socialism and a CRIME not a race!)
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To: neverdem

The standstill appears to be the result of many factors, including the weakened U.S. job and housing construction markets,


BS! Even if they can’t find work, they would still pour in for the freebies obama would give them.


34 posted on 04/25/2012 6:27:50 AM PDT by chessplayer
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To: rurgan

Yup. They probably only manage to catch 1 out of 10,,,if that many.


35 posted on 04/25/2012 6:30:38 AM PDT by chessplayer
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To: factoryrat

Isn’t Mexico’s unemployment rate lower than ours?


36 posted on 04/25/2012 6:31:59 AM PDT by tbw2
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To: neverdem

The Rats wont be in a bind. Just because they went back to Mexico doesn’t stop them from voting.


37 posted on 04/25/2012 7:36:04 AM PDT by W. W. SMITH (Obama is Romney lite)
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To: neverdem


38 posted on 04/25/2012 2:58:18 PM PDT by Chode (American Hedonist - *DTOM* -ww- NO Pity for the LAZY)
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To: neverdem

Obama has screwed up the country so badly, that even starving Mexicans no longer want to sneak in!


39 posted on 04/25/2012 11:15:36 PM PDT by Rytwyng (I'm still fond of the United States. I just can't find it. -- Fred Reed)
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