Skip to comments.Real Clear Politics: General Election: Romney vs. Obama (RCP Avg Obama +4.1
Posted on 04/25/2012 6:24:02 AM PDT by xzins
|Poll||Date||Sample||Obama (D)||Romney (R)||Spread|
|RCP Average||4/11 - 4/23||--||47.7||43.6||Obama +4.1|
|National Journal||4/19 - 4/22||1004 A||47||39||Obama +8|
|Rasmussen Tracking||4/21 - 4/23||1500 LV||44||48||Romney +4|
|Gallup Tracking||4/19 - 4/23||2200 RV||49||42||Obama +7|
|NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl||4/13 - 4/17||RV||49||43||Obama +6|
|CBS News/NY Times||4/13 - 4/17||852 RV||46||46||Tie|
(Excerpt) Read more at realclearpolitics.com ...
If Romney has no chance to win, then why vote for him?
If all conservatives get behind a conservative candidate, then, since 40% of America is conservative, there will be a plurality win for the conservative.
We just need to get you on board. And wosg, too.
...FWIW, I’ve got the final tally Obama 316, Romney 222...
The ‘principle’ you are voting is to let the liberals rule America: A conservative voting 3rd party is an open invitation to let liberals decide who goes in the white house.
IMHO, they cause us enough pain with giving us Obama in 2008. I dont want to give them another chance.
“Make no mistake...abortion is evil.”
Yup. Which is why right-to-life groups endorsed Romney vs pro-abortion Obama.
That interactive map is an eye-opener, isn’t it?
That’s about the same as Obama/McCain.
If he runs with Rubio, I’m giving him florida. Portman will not necessarily win Ohio for Romney, so I’m not real sure he’ll get Ohio.
Also notice that one of the biggest red states is GA. Remember how the primaries turned out there? Think voters there might have an issue with Romney?
This spells trouble for Mitt (and I’m not losing any sleep over it)
Romney wins McCain states plus NV, NH, FL, OH, CO, VA, NC and he wins the election.
Romney will almost certainly win NC, CO and likely NH, VA and NV. FL and OH are battleground states.
He doesnt even need NM, IA or WI. Or PA. gets any of those and its gravy.
All those are winnable states.
If he runs with Rubio, Im giving him florida. Portman will not necessarily win Ohio for Romney, so Im not real sure hell get Ohio.
...true enough...Rubio helps him get Florida...so 29 to 222
and come up to 251...and forget ohio, he won’t win there this go round, and Obama still wins 287-251...the truth of the matter is Romney needs to have both Florida and Ohio, and Obama doesn’t...win Virginia, and Obama’s in, that’s all he has to do, in all likelihood...
...although as we say, anything could happen...
“If Romney has no chance to win, then why vote for him?”
More GIGO. Romney is up 5 in Ras poll, the only LV poll out there.
Virgil Goode has no chance to win, why vote for him? (there’s your answer)
“If all conservatives get behind a conservative candidate, then, since 40% of America is conservative, there will be a plurality win for the conservative.”
Nope. we get a 1992 redux, where 45% voted for the Democrat and he won.
More likely Virgil Goode will get 1%, and will cost Republicans the election if its a close one (like what happened to Sen george Allen in 2006, losing by 5,000 votes, or Sen Norm Coleman in 2008 losing by 200 votes etc).
Neither does Romney.
Romney has split the party.
His appointment of an active gay ADVOCATE as his spokesman says that he is sprinting to the left and the base be damned.
He thinks the base will meekly acquiesce.
I think the base has principles....at least a larger percentage of it than Romney does.
Romney will almost certainly win NC, CO and likely NH, VA and NV. FL and OH are battleground states.
...when you go on 270 to win, in addition to playing with the map, please visit the polls tab up top, which will give you the latest detailed info for all the states, and check out some of those that you’ve placed in the romney camp...CO and VA are real stretches for Romney, and as we both note, he needs both FL and OH under any scenario...he won’t get both of them, if either...check the polls...
...that said, I further believe that this electorate will not turn out the first black president short of his term, if the zimmerman thing is any indication of fears of black reprisal...but in 2016, I doubt the Dem candidate could get elected dogcatcher, the country will be so tired of them...
...2008 in reverse, if you like...
when you let liberals take over BOTH political parties, THAT is letting liberals rule America.
Voting for 3rd party for a conservative an act of defiance suitable to the situation we have in front of us.
Voting for Goode is a reaction to the nomination of Romney. I was all set to support Perry, Gingrich, Santorum, Bachmann...any pro-life conservative.
Romney is not now, nor has he ever been, a pro-life conservative.
Funny thing that Susan B. Anthony put out a pledge that Romney refused to sign. SBA was adamant that candidates sign. Romney never signed. Bowing to political pressure, SBA turns around and violates their own insistence on the pledge.
You must consider that a little odd. I sure do. They and NRL both caved in to the “lesser of 2 evils” argument.
True pro-lifers will not. Romney is the author of the $50 abortion. He’s the man who promised the aborters that they’ll find a friend in him when he someday made inroads into the Repub party.
So, WOSG, there is thought behind our position.
Primarily, the intent is an attempt to gather conservatives for this election, and long-term to continue building a conservative party for the future.
Because Romney .. the worst possible GOP candidate.. is the nominee.. and
Because Goode is actually conservative (had it with RINOs) and
Because Romney has no chance in November.. I`m using this as an opportunity to make a long-needed move to a conservative party.
Yes, I know Goode won`t win the White House. But neither will Romney. Why not, then, opt for a conservative candidate?
I don't believe Romeny has no chance to win; I believe he is the only one with a legitimate shot at preventing another four years of Obama, assuming he wins the Republican nomination. However, thank you for replying without the invective more and more commonly seen in back and forths bewteen the 'Won't vote Romney, no matter what' and the 'Get rid of Obama, no matter what' factions.
“They and NRL both caved in to the lesser of 2 evils argument.”
NRL dont feel Romney is in any way ‘evil’ as he supports numerous of the prolife agenda items, like Mexico City policy that Obama undid, returning the Hyde amendment that obama gutted in Obamacare, etc. NRL feels that we need to replace Obama with Romney, who has pledge to appoint constitutionalist Justices like Scalia rather than folks like Kagan. Former prochoicer Romney will likely be as consistent to the prolife items as former prochoicer George HW Bush was when he was President. Not a true believer like Santorum would have been, but at least someone who has signed off on the prolife agenda and not on the side of shoving Planned Parenthood taxpayer money and doing everything he can against us, like Obama is. Obama’s a guy who has endorsed not just abortion but literally infanticide.
So NRL’s decision is pretty simple and obvious. A guy who since 2005 has been self-declared prolife, support and who we can hold his feet to the fire if he goes wobbly, vs a guy who is 100% totally and adamantly opposed to the values we hold.
So you think there is 100% chance of Obama getting reelected?
have you got your tickets to New Zealand yet?
Wosg, you’ve always been a straight shooter. Honestly, don’t you think it’s a little odd that sba puts out a pledge, that not one of the people who agreed with their pledge ever got endorsed, but that the one guy who refused to make their pro-life pledge did get endorsed.
And that only after his nomination looked inevitable.
I smell white-washed sepulchres filled with dead men’s bones.
I think all the invective separates people who actually think pretty much alike. I’ll be fair when I deal with those who’ve come down on a different side of the “lesser of two evils” vote. I’ve been there before with McCain, GHW Bush, Bob Dole.
But, no more. I want a new party, tnl, and not starting now just means it gets pushed into the future. And since both candidates are evil (lesser of 2 evils), then now is an excellent time to start.
Drill here; drill now. The new supply will arrive faster than if we delay.
I hope you reconsider. You realize, of course, that the Constitution Party has a number of positions that libertarians would find acceptable.
I agree, and I admit that I have engaged in it at times, myself. It's apparent we all here are not happy with Romney. I think if the Democrat were Clinton or Kerry or Gore, I might be more inclined to agree with you. I just fear the dangers of another four years of Obama too much to risk continuing his 'rule'.
You realize, of course, that the Constitution Party has a number of positions that libertarians would find acceptable.
I have read the Constitution Party platform and find it quite agreeable; I wish the Republicans would adopt it. And, in the 9+ years since I first adopted that moniker, I drift more and more 'conservatarian'.
I’ll keep working on you. :>) You are gracious enough to listen.
If the CP starts polling in double digits, then every conservative who’s ever longed for a conservative party should drop what they’re doing and flock in droves to the CP.
That would Shock the Vote!
None of these endorsements happened until Santorum dropped out, April 12th.
“And that only after his nomination looked inevitable.”
Which is the point. SBA didnt want him nominated, but does want him to beat Obama.
In checking this, I found out ...
“The Susan B. Anthony List, which endorsed Santorum and campaigned feverishly on his behalf by taking a campaign tour bus across the country, is now supporting the former Massachusetts governor for the GOP nomination to take on pro-abortion President Barack Obama”
... so your statement “ that not one of the people who agreed with their pledge ever got endorsed” isnt true. They endorsed Santorum. They jumped on the Romney bandwagon only after Santorum pulled out.
So SBAconsidered the primary race done and was making a general election endorsement ... From a prolife point of view, Santorum > Romney > Obama.
“I think all the invective separates people who actually think pretty much alike. Ill be fair when I deal with those whove come down on a different side of the lesser of two evils vote. Ive been there before with McCain, GHW Bush, Bob Dole.”
I agree with this.
And since I *have* been there before, and voted for dull Dole and RINO McCain, I’m not bent out of shape voting for a guy like Romney who will probably be as useful to conservatives as GHWBush was once he gets in.
It’s that Obama is far worse than Dukakis, Clinton or Gore, that makes this is a DEFCON 1 vote.
Romney is more conservative and less annoying than McCain was, at least (who had the habit of kicking conservatives in the shins just to suck up to the media). But I knew how bad Obama would be and really did what I could to get McCain elected. I was right, so I’m still ... Anyone But Obama.
Oh, come on, now.
Everyone knows Mitt Romney bought this nomination. All I’ve got to say, is there are a Hell ‘uva lot of political whores for sale in the Repulbican party!
Obama and Romney both support baby killing abortion, both support the radical homosexual agenda, both are opposed to guns, both ignore the U.S.Constitution and both are pathological liars but most of all both are socialists. So, what is the difference to chose between the two?
You vote for this man Romney, who bought the Republican Party hierarchy, and in short order the Democrats will be blaming the conservatives for the inevitable economic crash and accompanying depression. That will do more to solidly place the communists in power come 2016 than anything else one can imagine.
I say let the Democrats own the forthcoming chaos! Let it be on their heads, and not on ours.
I checked and you are right. I missed Santorum. So, I’ll rephrase.
Doesn’t it seem odd to you that SBA went the entire election season not endorsing any of the signatories of their pledge excepting Santorum, but did manage to endorse Romney, the one person who refused to sign their pledge?
Also, McCain had a pro-life background and voting record.
“SBA went the entire election season not endorsing any of the signatories of their pledge excepting Santorum”
Hmmm. usually when you endorse it is ONE person you endorse. So that’s not odd at all.
It’s not odd that SBA list on April 12 decided that once the nomination was effectively over(*), and ‘their guy’ was out of the primary, that they would make what is in effect a general election endorsement, since defeating Obama is paramount and Romney lines up with many of their prolife positions.
(*) You could argue that since Newt was still in it, it was still a race, but now that Romney won 5 primaries tuesday and newt is pulling out, it confirms what was inevitable once Santorum withdrew. So the only odd thing is how SBA did the endorsement then instead of waiting until now, when Romney is now 100% certain to be the nominee, to do it.
There’s not a single prolife person in America who should welcome a second Obama term. That includes you.
I don’t want a first Romney term or a 2nd Obama term.
Romney authored the $50 Massachusetts abortion.
So, I’ve got to drive on based on principle and not on party.
“I dont want a first Romney term or a 2nd Obama term.”
That’s the choice. Either Romney or Obama will be President next January.
“Romney authored the $50 Massachusetts abortion.”
Actually, Massachusetts had taxpayer-paid abortions in medicare since the 1980s. Romney didnt create that.
“So, Ive got to drive on based on principle and not on party.”
Apparently the principle is ‘let the most leftwing President ever get re-elected because the GOP nominated the wrong guy’.