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Daily Presidential Tracking Poll (Romney 49% Obama 44%)
Rasmussen ^ | 4-25-12 | Rasmussen

Posted on 04/25/2012 12:50:43 PM PDT by Mikey_1962

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Wednesday shows Mitt Romney earning 49% of the vote, while President Obama attracts support from 44%. Three percent (3%) would vote for a third party candidate, while another four percent (4%) are undecided.

Matchup results are updated daily at 9:30 a.m. Eastern (sign up for free daily e-mail update). See tracking history.

New polling from Virginia shows that the Senate race between George Allen (R) and Tim Kaine (D) remains a toss-up.

As the campaign unfolds, the role of government in American society will again be debated. Just 22% of voters believe more government leads to more fairness. Fifty percent (50%) believe increased government regulation leads to less fairness.

Two-out-of-three (66%) believe that most government contracts are awarded to those with political connections rather than to those who provide the best service at the best price.

The president and Romney have both spoken on the topic of student loans recently, but most Americans think other options should be on the table. Scott Rasmussen’s radio update notes that 70% think it’s better for a student to work through college and take six to eight years to graduate rather than taking student loans. Half (48%) believe student loans drive up the cost of tuition.

A president’s Job Approval rating is one of the best indicators for assessing his chances of reelection. Typically, the president’s Job Approval rating on Election Day will be close to the share of the vote he receives. Currently, 46% of voters say they at least somewhat approve of the president's job performance. Fifty-three percent (53%) at least somewhat disapprove.


TOPICS: Government; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS:
State by state is more important.
1 posted on 04/25/2012 12:50:44 PM PDT by Mikey_1962
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To: Mikey_1962

Make 5 million a year to do daily polls...nice work : )


2 posted on 04/25/2012 1:12:03 PM PDT by stephenjohnbanker (God, family, country, mom, apple pie, the girl next door and a Ford F250 to pull my boat.)
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To: Mikey_1962

Agree. But when you consider the fact that the votes contributing to Obama’s 44% national total come from large states he has a lock on such as California and New York, this doesn’t look good for him.


3 posted on 04/25/2012 1:12:36 PM PDT by Parmenio
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To: Mikey_1962

Fine and dandy, but flipping the Senate and strengthening the house is what will make or break US.


4 posted on 04/25/2012 1:20:10 PM PDT by folkquest (Nothing is fool-proof because fools are so ingenious!)
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To: Mikey_1962

Obama 44%
Anyone But Obama 49%

There. Fixed it.


5 posted on 04/25/2012 1:26:30 PM PDT by Buckeye McFrog
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To: Buckeye McFrog

But, there have been so many other polls recently, showing Obama ahead.

There was the one showing Obama with a big lead among women.

Then there was the one showing that moderate/independent voters in the swing states preferred Obama.

Are some of these other polls just propaganda, to make us think that Obama is more popular than he really is???


6 posted on 04/25/2012 1:43:00 PM PDT by Dilbert San Diego
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To: folkquest

I agree with the house and senate. Getting Obama out of there is critical because he is still in after 2012 he can issue executive orders to his heart’s content and get what he wants.


7 posted on 04/25/2012 1:54:12 PM PDT by Utah Girl (John 15:12, Matthew 5:44)
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To: Dilbert San Diego

It all depends on who you ask and whether or not you screen for people who actually vote.


8 posted on 04/25/2012 2:04:10 PM PDT by jwalsh07 (.)
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To: Dilbert San Diego
Likely voters give the most accurate poll followed by registered voters and then adults. Ras uses likely voters and most of the others don't. One way to make Obunga appear stronger is to poll only adults and also to increase the proportion of rats.
9 posted on 04/25/2012 2:17:30 PM PDT by JPG (Please pass the pooch.)
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To: Mikey_1962; fieldmarshaldj; AuH2ORepublican; Impy; GOPsterinMA; randita; Sun; LdSentinal; ...

The national polls are useful, but it’s the individual states that really matter.


10 posted on 04/25/2012 3:05:13 PM PDT by Clintonfatigued (A liberal's compassion is limited to the size of other peoples' paychecks)
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To: folkquest

“Fine and dandy, but flipping the Senate and strengthening the house is what will make or break US.”

Without 60 votes, nothing moves in the Senate.


11 posted on 04/25/2012 3:06:08 PM PDT by truth_seeker
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To: Mikey_1962
...while another four percent (4%) are undecided.

Interesting

12 posted on 04/25/2012 3:10:01 PM PDT by Crawdad
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To: Clintonfatigued
The national polls are useful, but it’s the individual states that really matter.

Hypothetically, that is the case, but I have heard it said that if a presidential candidate wins the national popular vote by 1% or more, they'll have enough electoral votes.

An example of this principle can be applied to the 2000 election, in which Gore won the popular vote by .5%. If Gore had a 1% advantage in the popular vote, I believe he would have been President.

A win by 4% of the popular vote would be decisive, IMO. But polls out this far are meaningless.

Romney was not my first choice by far, but I think he has run a disciplined primary campaign with minimal stumbling. I think he may surprise his detractors. Although not charismatic, he is no Mr. Nice Guy like GWB or McLame. My take is that he will take the gloves off and street fight and that he will respond immediately to attacks and lies. I think we're about to see someone who will finally stand up to the bullying Obama dishes out and give it back. If he does that, he'll win many to his side who are sick and tired of Republicans rolling over and playing dead. It will be interesting to watch and we'll see soon if I am right or wrong about this.

13 posted on 04/25/2012 5:57:29 PM PDT by randita
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To: randita

Are you talking about the guy who consistently calls Obama a “nice guy who’s just in over his head?” His tactic to combat liberals in elections has always been to explain how he agrees with them on a lot of stuff and is pretty liberal himself, if not moreso in some cases. The problem with defending himself against attacks from the Democrats is that they’ll be right most of the time. He IS out-of-touch, he IS a flip-flopper, he DOESN’T have any core values, he does nothing but spit out poll-tested lines crafted by amoral consultants who just want to “win,” etc.


14 posted on 04/25/2012 6:02:58 PM PDT by JediJones (From the makers of Romney, Bloomberg/Schwarzenegger 2016. Because the GOP can never go too far left.)
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To: randita; Clintonfatigued; AuH2ORepublican; fieldmarshaldj

Yes it’s hard to imagine Romney not winning enough states if wins by more than eyelash nationally.

There have been close calls (see 1916) but Tilden is the only guy to win the popular vote by more than 1% and not get the most electoral votes. And his popular vote margin was illegitimate cause many Blacks in the reconstructed Southern states were not allowed to vote Republican.


15 posted on 04/26/2012 5:54:24 AM PDT by Impy (Don't call me red.)
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To: Impy; randita; Clintonfatigued; fieldmarshaldj

In 2008, Obama won the national popular vote by 7.26% (52.87% for Obama and 45.60% for McCain) and got 365 EVs. Had McCain increased, and Obama decreased, their respective vote percentages by 4.47% in every state and the District of Columbia, McCain would have won the national popular vote by 1.67% (50.07% to 48.40%) but Obama would have still defeated him in the Electoral College by 278-260. And had McCain increased, and Obama decreased, their respective vote percentages by 4.76% in every state and the District of Columbia, McCain would have won the national popular vote by 2.25% (50.36% to 48.11%) but there would have been a 269-all tie in the Electoral College and the Democrat House would have decided the election.

But the 2008 elections were an aberration in more ways than one, and I don’t think there has been a presidential election in which the “fulcrum” state (the one that would need to flip in order for the other candidate to win assuming that such candidate gained votes by an equal percentage in every state) was one that the winning candidate carried by such a high percentage above his national victory margin. If Romney beats Obama in the national popular vote by 1%, I think he’ll carry NC, VA, FL, OH and NH and get to 270.


16 posted on 04/26/2012 6:43:01 AM PDT by AuH2ORepublican (If a politician won't protect innocent babies, what makes you think that he'll protect your rights?)
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To: AuH2ORepublican; fieldmarshaldj
But the 2008 elections were an aberration in more ways than one, and I don’t think there has been a presidential election in which the “fulcrum” state (the one that would need to flip in order for the other candidate to win assuming that such candidate gained votes by an equal percentage in every state) was one that the winning candidate carried by such a high percentage above his national victory margin.

Yes, I've tinkered with Dave Leip's Atlas enough to know that. ;D

17 posted on 04/26/2012 7:03:38 AM PDT by Impy (Don't call me red.)
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To: Mikey_1962
Well I've been through enough election cycles to know that an incumbent is in deep trouble when his opponent is at or near 50% in the polling this early in the campaign.

Historically, the challenger gets a surge in the final weeks of the campaign as the undecideds tend to break for the challenger 2-1.

Just a personal observation. This election cycle, nobody in my office is discussing politics - not even casually. Four years ago, the women in my office were chirping away about Obama and how wonderful he seemed to be. Dead silence this time around. I think there are a lot of people who are afraid to say they are against Obama, either for fear of being tagged as racist or simply that they don't want to admit how wrong they were four years ago. As a result, they will keep their mouths shut until they get into the voting booth.

18 posted on 04/26/2012 7:18:01 AM PDT by SamAdams76 (I am 22 days away from outliving Phil Hartman)
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To: SamAdams76
Morris claims he did a study where its 80% vote in favor of the challenger among undecided.

Myself I'm watching Virginia and North Carolina.

19 posted on 04/26/2012 7:41:40 AM PDT by Mikey_1962 (Obama: The Affirmative Action President.)
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To: AuH2ORepublican

Good analysis. 2008 was an aberration and any conclusions about that election applied this year or in the future will be flawed.

It’s like ice skating judging. Throw out the low score, throw out the high score, and average the rest.

Elections where the overwhelming motivation to vote is emotion - either anger or enthusiasm (both in large supply in 2008) are outliers.


20 posted on 04/26/2012 8:15:12 AM PDT by randita
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To: SamAdams76

Something drastic may happen to change things, but if not, I expect this election to be low in terms of enthusiasm and turnout.

Obama’s going to be a broken record on liberal scare tactics. That will likely turn out his base, but will not inspire people who voted for him for reasons of novelty or in expectation of miracles. The novelty has worn quite thin and the promised miracles have been more like curses.

I hope Romney has more than a few aces up his sleeve to get Republicans juiced enough to come out for him. Running as the NoBama candidate isn’t enough.


21 posted on 04/26/2012 8:21:22 AM PDT by randita
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