Posted on 04/25/2012 12:50:43 PM PDT by Mikey_1962
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Wednesday shows Mitt Romney earning 49% of the vote, while President Obama attracts support from 44%. Three percent (3%) would vote for a third party candidate, while another four percent (4%) are undecided.
Matchup results are updated daily at 9:30 a.m. Eastern (sign up for free daily e-mail update). See tracking history.
New polling from Virginia shows that the Senate race between George Allen (R) and Tim Kaine (D) remains a toss-up.
As the campaign unfolds, the role of government in American society will again be debated. Just 22% of voters believe more government leads to more fairness. Fifty percent (50%) believe increased government regulation leads to less fairness.
Two-out-of-three (66%) believe that most government contracts are awarded to those with political connections rather than to those who provide the best service at the best price.
The president and Romney have both spoken on the topic of student loans recently, but most Americans think other options should be on the table. Scott Rasmussen’s radio update notes that 70% think it’s better for a student to work through college and take six to eight years to graduate rather than taking student loans. Half (48%) believe student loans drive up the cost of tuition.
A president’s Job Approval rating is one of the best indicators for assessing his chances of reelection. Typically, the president’s Job Approval rating on Election Day will be close to the share of the vote he receives. Currently, 46% of voters say they at least somewhat approve of the president's job performance. Fifty-three percent (53%) at least somewhat disapprove.
Make 5 million a year to do daily polls...nice work : )
Agree. But when you consider the fact that the votes contributing to Obama’s 44% national total come from large states he has a lock on such as California and New York, this doesn’t look good for him.
Fine and dandy, but flipping the Senate and strengthening the house is what will make or break US.
Obama 44%
Anyone But Obama 49%
There. Fixed it.
But, there have been so many other polls recently, showing Obama ahead.
There was the one showing Obama with a big lead among women.
Then there was the one showing that moderate/independent voters in the swing states preferred Obama.
Are some of these other polls just propaganda, to make us think that Obama is more popular than he really is???
I agree with the house and senate. Getting Obama out of there is critical because he is still in after 2012 he can issue executive orders to his heart’s content and get what he wants.
It all depends on who you ask and whether or not you screen for people who actually vote.
The national polls are useful, but it’s the individual states that really matter.
“Fine and dandy, but flipping the Senate and strengthening the house is what will make or break US.”
Without 60 votes, nothing moves in the Senate.
Interesting
Hypothetically, that is the case, but I have heard it said that if a presidential candidate wins the national popular vote by 1% or more, they'll have enough electoral votes.
An example of this principle can be applied to the 2000 election, in which Gore won the popular vote by .5%. If Gore had a 1% advantage in the popular vote, I believe he would have been President.
A win by 4% of the popular vote would be decisive, IMO. But polls out this far are meaningless.
Romney was not my first choice by far, but I think he has run a disciplined primary campaign with minimal stumbling. I think he may surprise his detractors. Although not charismatic, he is no Mr. Nice Guy like GWB or McLame. My take is that he will take the gloves off and street fight and that he will respond immediately to attacks and lies. I think we're about to see someone who will finally stand up to the bullying Obama dishes out and give it back. If he does that, he'll win many to his side who are sick and tired of Republicans rolling over and playing dead. It will be interesting to watch and we'll see soon if I am right or wrong about this.
Are you talking about the guy who consistently calls Obama a “nice guy who’s just in over his head?” His tactic to combat liberals in elections has always been to explain how he agrees with them on a lot of stuff and is pretty liberal himself, if not moreso in some cases. The problem with defending himself against attacks from the Democrats is that they’ll be right most of the time. He IS out-of-touch, he IS a flip-flopper, he DOESN’T have any core values, he does nothing but spit out poll-tested lines crafted by amoral consultants who just want to “win,” etc.
Yes it’s hard to imagine Romney not winning enough states if wins by more than eyelash nationally.
There have been close calls (see 1916) but Tilden is the only guy to win the popular vote by more than 1% and not get the most electoral votes. And his popular vote margin was illegitimate cause many Blacks in the reconstructed Southern states were not allowed to vote Republican.
In 2008, Obama won the national popular vote by 7.26% (52.87% for Obama and 45.60% for McCain) and got 365 EVs. Had McCain increased, and Obama decreased, their respective vote percentages by 4.47% in every state and the District of Columbia, McCain would have won the national popular vote by 1.67% (50.07% to 48.40%) but Obama would have still defeated him in the Electoral College by 278-260. And had McCain increased, and Obama decreased, their respective vote percentages by 4.76% in every state and the District of Columbia, McCain would have won the national popular vote by 2.25% (50.36% to 48.11%) but there would have been a 269-all tie in the Electoral College and the Democrat House would have decided the election.
But the 2008 elections were an aberration in more ways than one, and I don’t think there has been a presidential election in which the “fulcrum” state (the one that would need to flip in order for the other candidate to win assuming that such candidate gained votes by an equal percentage in every state) was one that the winning candidate carried by such a high percentage above his national victory margin. If Romney beats Obama in the national popular vote by 1%, I think he’ll carry NC, VA, FL, OH and NH and get to 270.
Yes, I've tinkered with Dave Leip's Atlas enough to know that. ;D
Historically, the challenger gets a surge in the final weeks of the campaign as the undecideds tend to break for the challenger 2-1.
Just a personal observation. This election cycle, nobody in my office is discussing politics - not even casually. Four years ago, the women in my office were chirping away about Obama and how wonderful he seemed to be. Dead silence this time around. I think there are a lot of people who are afraid to say they are against Obama, either for fear of being tagged as racist or simply that they don't want to admit how wrong they were four years ago. As a result, they will keep their mouths shut until they get into the voting booth.
Myself I'm watching Virginia and North Carolina.
Good analysis. 2008 was an aberration and any conclusions about that election applied this year or in the future will be flawed.
It’s like ice skating judging. Throw out the low score, throw out the high score, and average the rest.
Elections where the overwhelming motivation to vote is emotion - either anger or enthusiasm (both in large supply in 2008) are outliers.
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