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The Shrinking Immigration Problem (The number of illegal immigrants from Mexico is getting smaller)
National Review ^ | 04/26/2012 | Michael Barone

Posted on 04/26/2012 6:24:04 AM PDT by SeekAndFind

The illegal-immigration problem is going away.

That’s the conclusion I draw from the latest report of the Pew Hispanic Center on Mexican immigration to the United States.

Pew’s demographers have carefully combed through statistics compiled by the U.S. Census Bureau, the Department of Homeland Security, and the Mexican government, and have come up with estimates of the flow of migrants from and back to Mexico. Their work seems to be as close to definitive as possible. They conclude that from 2005 to 2010, some 1.39 million people came from Mexico to the United States and 1.37 million went from the U.S. to Mexico. “The largest wave of immigration in history from a single country to the United States,” they write, “has come to a standstill.”

The turning point seems to have come with the collapse of housing prices and the onset of recession in 2007. Annual immigration from Mexico dropped from peaks of 770,000 in 2000 and 670,000 in 2004 to 140,000 in 2010.

As a result, the Mexican-born population in the United States decreased from 12.6 million in 2007 to 12.0 million in 2010. That decrease consisted entirely of Mexican-born illegal immigrants, whose numbers decreased from 7 million in 2007 to 6.1 million in 2010.

Mitt Romney has been ridiculed for saying that illegal immigrants should “self-deport.” But that seems to be exactly what many of them have been doing. The U.S. government has been sending back more illegals lately, but most of the flow to Mexico has been voluntary.

The Pew analysts hesitate to say so, but their numbers make a strong case that we will never again see the flow of Mexicans into this country that we saw between 1970, when there were fewer than 1 million Mexican-born people in the U.S., and 2007, when there were 12.7 million.

One reason is that Mexico’s population growth has slowed way down. Its fertility rate fell from 7.3 children per woman in 1970 to 2.4 in 2009, which is just above replacement level.

Meanwhile, Mexico’s economy has grown. Despite sharp currency devaluations in 1982 and 1994, its per capita gross domestic product rose 22 percent from 1980 to 2010.

Mexico, like the United States, experienced a recession from 2007 to 2009. But since then, Mexico’s GDP has grown far faster than ours — 5.5 percent in 2010 and 3.9 percent in 2011. Mexico seemed yoked to the U.S. growth rate after passage of the North American Free Trade Agreement in 1993. But since the recession, it seems yoked to the more robust growth rate of the state with the biggest cross-border trade, Texas.

An end to the huge flow of immigrants from Mexico has huge implications for U.S. immigration policy.

Because of our long land border with Mexico (the Rio Grande is a trickle most of the year), it has been relatively easy to emigrate illegally from that country. As a result, Mexican immigrants tend to be younger, poorer, less educated, and less fluent in English than immigrants from other countries. They are also more likely to be illegal — Mexicans are 30 percent of all immigrants but 58 percent of illegals — and less likely to become U.S. citizens.

A continued standstill in Mexican immigration means that the number of illegals in the United States will probably continue to decline, even in an economic recovery. Children of illegals born in the U.S., who are automatically U.S. citizens, don’t add to the illegal numbers. And no other country has produced or is likely to produce anything close to the number or share of illegals that Mexico has.

The central focus of the debate over the so-called comprehensive immigration bills that came to the floor of the Senate in 2006 and 2007 was their provisions for legalization of those illegally here — amnesty, to opponents. On the campaign trail, Barack Obama is promising to push for such legislation, just as he promised in 2008. But he didn’t deliver when Democrats had supermajorities in both houses and is unlikely to get anywhere on this project in a second term.

It may not matter much. With the Mexican reservoir of potential illegals dried up, and with better border enforcement and increased use of the much improved E-Verify system in workplaces, the illegal population seems likely to decline.

The key immigration issue for the future is whether America, like our Anglosphere cousins Canada and Australia, will let in more high-skilled immigrants.

— Michael Barone is senior political analyst for the Washington Examiner


TOPICS: Crime/Corruption; Culture/Society; Editorial; Mexico; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: aliens; illegals; immigration; mexico

1 posted on 04/26/2012 6:24:13 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
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To: SeekAndFind

Great. We’re solving our illegal immigrant problem by driving our economy into the toilet and destroying our future.


2 posted on 04/26/2012 6:26:02 AM PDT by Opinionated Blowhard ("When the people find they can vote themselves money, that will herald the end of the republic.")
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To: Opinionated Blowhard

RE: We’re solving our illegal immigrant problem by driving our economy into the toilet and destroying our future.

Well, that’s one way to do it... make America more like Mexico instead of the other way around... California is doing this even as we speak...


3 posted on 04/26/2012 6:28:06 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
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To: SeekAndFind

I thought it was impossible to deport all these people? I thought there was no way for them the re-partriate. It was deemd impossible, remember?


4 posted on 04/26/2012 6:28:46 AM PDT by central_va ( I won't be reconstructed and I do not give a damn.)
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To: SeekAndFind
That’s the conclusion I draw from the latest report of the Pew Hispanic Center on Mexican immigration to the United States.

Stopped right there.

5 posted on 04/26/2012 6:30:14 AM PDT by TADSLOS (Conservatism is not a party slogan, but a mindset guided by core values and walking the walk.)
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To: SeekAndFind

Rats aren’t into a sinking ship.


6 posted on 04/26/2012 6:32:49 AM PDT by cunning_fish
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To: SeekAndFind

This is direct evidence that “self-deportation” is the answer.

In other words: No we do not need to deport 20 million illegal aliens.

Just don’t let anyone in the country illegally work.

Couldn’t be simpler. Presto: they’ll find jobs. By being resourceful, determined, even if necessary making difficult and sometimes dangerous treks long distances - with personal perseverance, risking elements to heroically travel to where they can find jobs.

At home.


7 posted on 04/26/2012 6:32:52 AM PDT by Cringing Negativism Network (Obama ate his own dog as a child in Indonesia??)
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To: SeekAndFind

How many of those 1.4 million leaving just happened to have a baby here and left it with relatives with cradle to grave gov’t bennies?


8 posted on 04/26/2012 6:37:26 AM PDT by trailhkr1 (All you need to know about Zimmerman, innocent = riots, manslaughter = riots, guilty = riots)
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To: SeekAndFind

The only reason this is even news right now is because Obama wants it to be. He will use this to say “see, most of the illegals have left so lets just legalise the one that remain”. It will be around that time that we find out those statistics were inaccurate. It’s the “bait and switch style” of this administration. If immigration was no longer a problem, they would have dropped the Arizona law suit. They haven’t.


9 posted on 04/26/2012 6:41:10 AM PDT by marstegreg
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To: SeekAndFind
Children of illegals born in the U.S., who are automatically U.S. citizens, don’t add to the illegal numbers.

It does it you actually interpret the Constitution and the 14th Amendment corectly. And as far as allowing in more highly-skilled workers, we should be producing those ourselves. It would be an exponential benefit to do so.

10 posted on 04/26/2012 6:44:08 AM PDT by Crucial
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To: SeekAndFind
Mexico has an unemployment rate of 5.1%. The illegal flow is linked to our ecnomomy. If our economy picks up, the number of illegals will.

And there has been no decrease in legal immigration, which is about 1.2 million a year, with about 150,000 a year coming from Mexico.

11 posted on 04/26/2012 7:02:36 AM PDT by kabar
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To: SeekAndFind

Of course it is just possible that the only people left in Mexico these days are tourists, drug cartel members, and the ruling elite.

All the rest have moved north so no more folks to cross the border


12 posted on 04/26/2012 7:26:15 AM PDT by Nifster
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To: SeekAndFind

Any media story about the border is suspect.

Notice how none of them interview border county sherriffs.
Bet they have a much different story to tell.


13 posted on 04/26/2012 7:31:54 AM PDT by Texas resident (Hunkered Down)
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To: Nifster

RE: Of course it is just possible that the only people left in Mexico these days are tourists, drug cartel members, and the ruling elite.

Last time I checked, Mexico’s population is 113 Million people. Hard to believe that most of them are tourists, drug cartel members and ruling elites....


14 posted on 04/26/2012 7:33:56 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
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To: SeekAndFind

How about we put enough boots along the border to count them as they leave?

That way we can be SURE the problem is going away.

Otherwise, not so much.


15 posted on 04/26/2012 8:17:08 AM PDT by DNME (A monarch's neck should always have a noose around it. It keeps him upright. — Robert Heinlein)
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To: SeekAndFind

They may not be working here but I can assure you they are on virtually every government tit that is available together with their anchor babies. They are not going anywhere.


16 posted on 04/26/2012 8:19:21 AM PDT by headstamp 2 (Liberalism: Carrying adolescent values and behavior into adult life.)
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To: SeekAndFind

and the unemployment rate is really 8.3%


17 posted on 04/26/2012 8:30:28 AM PDT by Nifster
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To: Texas resident

“Any media story about the border is suspect.”

Yep. I see no shortage of the invaders in Houston.


18 posted on 04/26/2012 10:00:37 AM PDT by TexasRepublic (Socialism is the gospel of envy and the religion of thieves)
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To: SeekAndFind

I call B.S.

Illegals avoid the census carefully. Many are living in unauthorized converted quarters like garages. That was a big problem in east LA years ago, & it has only gotten worse.

Due to limits on occupancy, they also lie about how many people are living in any particular residence.

I don’t trust a single word that janet Nappy says—at anytime—so why should I trust her with this piece of info?

Ask the people who live within 300 miles of the Mexican border & you will find out better answers.


19 posted on 04/26/2012 10:02:01 AM PDT by ridesthemiles
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To: SeekAndFind

Mexico’s poverty problem got exported to the USA. No wonder they are doing better than us. They don’t have to fund all of the welfare cases they had, while we have to pay billions upon billions for the health care and education of 15 million illegals from Mexico on top of all of the legals.


20 posted on 04/26/2012 10:05:10 AM PDT by Freedom_Is_Not_Free (REPEAL OBAMACARE. Nothing else matters.)
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To: Opinionated Blowhard

We could fix that booming Mexican economy by busing our ghetto rats to Mexico so they could vote in their elections, collect free health care and education from them and fill up their prisions. We’d have bus them. They’d never make it on foot.

We could tell them it’s a free Obamamoney trip to Mexico!


21 posted on 04/26/2012 11:51:23 AM PDT by SaraJohnson
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To: central_va
I thought it was impossible to deport all these people? I thought there was no way for them the re-partriate. It was deemd impossible, remember?

Barone is whistling past the graveyard in support of Mittens, trying to take his OBL position off the table w/ conservatives.

(Article) Children of illegals born in the U.S., who are automatically U.S. citizens, don’t add to the illegal numbers.

Not technically, but they do add to the sociopolitical and wage-breaking problem, because they are still Mexican, culturally and attitudinally. Mexicans are the most culturally conservative immigrants we have, after Jews I would say. That means they'll vote straight-ticket Democratic for the next three, and probably as many as five, generations to come. They will also continue to resist the American value of seeking education to the maximum degree possible; the Mexican custom, dare I call it family duty, is to go to work as soon as old enough (in the teens) to help support the family.

His flat statement that Mexican immigration won't return with a pickup in U.S. economic activity is bootless, and surveys in Mexico completed recently flatly say he's wrong. The respondents who said they'd decided to stay home this year, all predicated their unwillingness to cross the border again on two things: A) bad employment prospects up here and B) tougher migration conditions, mostly in the form of increased squeezes by the cartels, but also in the form of police activity in e.g. Arizona.

Even without a big pickup in economic activity, a reduction of policing Stateside, or a relaxation of the cartels' geographical zone fees, would produce a reacceleration of illegal immigration.

Lastly, Barone fecklessly assumes that the U.S. OBL, momentarily standing down from mass importation of wage-breakers, won't turn to, oh, lessee .....the Chinese for example, or India, to make good their drafts of masses of semiskilled and unskilled labor, if the economy picks up and the Mexican migrant workers, for some reason, decided to continue to stay home.

Barone is begging the question on the real cause of the sociopolitical and demographic problem, and that is the big OBL employers, whose favorite candidate is Mitt Romney.

22 posted on 04/27/2012 6:49:10 PM PDT by lentulusgracchus
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To: SaraJohnson
We could tell them it’s a free Obamamoney trip to Mexico!

Naughty, naughty, naughty!! ;)

23 posted on 04/27/2012 6:52:28 PM PDT by lentulusgracchus
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To: headstamp 2

You are right, and my trip to Home Depot this moring confirmed that there are a parking lot full of people of color shall I say, looking for day labor jobs..


24 posted on 04/28/2012 11:46:27 AM PDT by JoanneSD (TEA PARTY VERSES TEE TIME)
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