Skip to comments.Pollmania: Romney tied with Obama nationally, leads by a point in Virginia; Leads by two in Florida
Posted on 04/26/2012 6:33:42 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
I owe you something cheery after yesterday’s descent into eeyorish madness.
On the one hand, the economy’s supposed to be our big advantage, right? Maybe … not so much:
That’s a nifty example of why Democrats are so keen to frame the election as a choice between two visions rather than as a referendum on The One. Viewed in isolation, his economic program is shinola and voters know it. The key for lefties is making sure they don’t view it in isolation. On the other hand, there’s this:
The second data set shows the results when voters are asked whether they’d definitely or never vote for Obama. The column for independents is eyepopping, especially when you consider that they split evenly at 37 when the same question is asked about Romney. Problem is, Fox used such a small sample of indies for this poll that the margin of error for the subgroup ended up being eight percent. That’s why Romney merely ties O overall at 46 percent even though he wins independents by 13 points — there simply aren’t enough of the latter in this sample to make up for Obama’s enormous lead among Democrats. (The sample splits 44D/38R.) Even so, it’s worth paying attention to this metric going forward. How many anti-Obama votes are already banked among independents? And how many of them who claim they’ll never, ever, evah vote for O will rethink if we end up with two or three straight months of solid job growth?
Speaking of which, go read Jay Cost on the perils of trusting polls in an era when 90 percent of the electorate is split between the parties and locked down on each side, leaving the fate of the country in the hands of 10 percent who don’t pay much attention to politics and maybe don’t know what they’re talking about a lot of the time. Quote: “They are at the least fickle and at the worst maddening, as they regularly tell pollsters they have settled opinions when in fact they do not!” Makes those “I’ll never vote for Obama” results a little harder to interpret, huh? Oh, and here’s the Virginia poll from Rasmussen showing Mitt up by a point. We’re expected to take that state this time, I think. It’s in the same group as Indiana and North Carolina, just purple enough to break for a Democrat when everything’s going their way but a mighty heavy lift under normal-ish circumstances. That’s the difference between 2008 and 2012, I hope.
Exit question: How’s everyone out there feeling about this strategy?
There is a pretty broad view that President Obama is a good family man and decent guy, but may be in over his head, said Mr. Gillespie, a former counselor to George W. Bush, who was brought into the Romney campaign this month. He said the argument against re-election would be built around the suggestion that Mr. Obama has not displayed strong leadership, but failed leadership and weak leadership.
Update: Just as I’m writing this, the “Purple Poll” is out with data from battleground states. Romney’s up two in Florida and is tied in Colorado but trails narrowly in Virginia and Ohio. His favorable rating in CO, VA, OH, and FL, respectively:
Second look at the likability gap?
I’d bet this poll doesn’t count all the dead people, illegal aliens, and those “special people” who are allowed to vote multiple times that comprise the heart of the democratic constituency. This election will be the dirtiest and most corrupt in American history.
I only see the following states SURE to go Obama. The others are in play....
New York 29
New Jersey 14
Rhode Island 4
That makes 186 electoral votes of the 270 needed to win.
I’m getting little sense here in OH, except that Sherrod Brown, the incumbent, is in a real struggle with essentially an unknown for his senate seat. That ain’t good for Barry.
“Im getting little sense here in OH, except that Sherrod Brown, the incumbent, is in a real struggle with essentially an unknown for his senate seat. That aint good for Barry.”
I have some moderate friends. What I notice is they WANT to vote for Obama. They want to let the media fool them that Obama is doing a good job. They want to ignore the scandals. But, at the end of the day, they have to buy gas, buy groceries, pay their bills, and try to keep their job.
I think some of them, who voted Obama in 2008 will reluctantly vote Romney, or stay home.
Northern Colorado really hates Obummer based on the bumper stickers. People openly make fun of him in the office.
Also there's no way to know what the tendency is among people who refuse to be polled. I always hang up on pollsters.
after the Trayvon Riots he may be leading by 22 in Florida...
If Scott Walker wins the recall here, WI. could become a red state this time around.
LOL. I’m proud to say I don’t have any liberal friends, and only a few moderates.
They’re not reporting on reality. They’re working to create a reality.
I think you are correct, cl.
The groundswell of young voters swooning over the Hope n’Change candidate is gone. This age group is fickle and will not vote unless they are highly motivated like they were in ‘08.
Seniors always vote and the ones I’ve talked with seem to be in love with the guy with the good hair..no not John Edwards, the other one from Mass.
“LOL. Im proud to say I dont have any liberal friends, and only a few moderates.”
My brother is a hardcore old school Democrat. I’m stuck.
My best friend is a moderate... we only talk politics in general terms. His views are a good barometer to help me to judge what’s going on around me.
Seniors always vote and the ones Ive talked with seem to be in love with the guy with the good hair..no not John Edwards, the other one from Mass.I've noticed that too, in my small circle of senior friends.
I know one couple, in Florida, who have never been active politically but spent the weeks leading up to the Florida primary working every day on the Romney campaign.
A lot of the old folks seem to love Romney. Maybe its a symptom of some kind of brain degeneration?
We’ll see which states are up for grabs by watching where Osama goes to campaign and where he spends lots of $$$.For example,we’ll see lots of ads on Boston TV stations not because *Massachusetts* is up for grabs but because *New Hampshire* is.The most heavily populated part of NH (the southern part) is basically a suburb of Boston and depends on Boston TV,radio and newspapers.
RE: If Scott Walker wins the recall here, WI. could become a red state this time around.
So, what are his chances looking like now?
I think he will win...by about 4-5%.
RE: I think he will win...by about 4-5%.
Which “he”? Romney or Obama?
Please ignore my above post, I thought you were referring to Romney vs Obama. I just realized you were referring to Scott Walker.
Let’s hope you’re right.
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