Posted on 04/26/2012 12:15:14 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
Ever since Mitt Romney all but secured the Republican nomination, we were all waiting with bated breath.
Wait no more. Karl Rove has finally put out his inaugural 2012 electoral map. And who's winning?
Barack Obama. Here it is, in all its glory:
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You can see there how it breaks down: Right now, 284 votes are either solidly for Obama or "leaning Obama." Romney only has 172 solidly in his grasp or "leaning" toward him. The remaining 82 electoral votes are toss-ups.
What does this mean? Well, first, that Romney has some catching up to do and the gravity of the map he's up against. According to this map, even if Romney wins all the toss-up states of Iowa, Missouri, Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina and Florida — which could be done — he still wouldn't beat Obama.
(Excerpt) Read more at businessinsider.com ...
But, but, but, but, but Karl the Great told us the Mittster was the only electable One. And now Karl’s the one with buyer’s remorse??
Yup, focus everything on those Senate races. I remember some polling a month or so ago that showed the Senate Democrats doing much worse in the polls than Obama was at the time. Gridlocking Obama for the next 4 years has an upside. His ability to be President would be exhausted during a time he couldn’t do much. Frankly we’re lucky the economy was as bad as it was while he was President, otherwise he would have had much more leeway to pass more socialist welfare programs and corrupt stimulus measures. If Obama loses, he could run again for another term years down the road, at a time when there is a liberal Congress waiting for him and do far more damage. And I’m not sure the Dems have a better weapon in the wings for later, someone as far-left and as charismatic in selling it to the public. So there is an upside to burning him out now while he’s weak, especially since the alternative is his progressive Republican counterpart, Mitt.
The RCP average map isn’t much different.
Many of us oldtimers remember that the way Theoria has it is the original color scheme.
FL & OH aren’t swing states. The Republican will easily win them. In 2010, both of those states elected new U.S. senators, and both are Republicans. In ‘10, both of those states elected new governors, and both are Republicans.
Maybe Uncle Walter didn't know but Carter did. Pat Caddell, his pollster, told Carter on Sunday evening that all his polling showed that Carter had no chance to win the election which was two days away.
I would have voted for Newt....
As me again about the latter following their Traditional Marriage amendment state constitutional vote on their primary ballot.
PA's not possible for Romney. McCain was probably the ideal Republican to run in PA and he performed horribly. Mitt doesn't stand a chance. FL was a 2-point spread, OH 4-point and PA 10-point. Let's not forget Toomey barely won his Senate seat in PA in 2010 during the big Tea Party year by a 2-point spread. MI was a huge 17-point spread so you can forget about that one too.
I laughed at that one, too!
“That’s the way uh huh uh huh karl likes it... uh huh uh huh”!
LLS
SC a toss-up?? Get real.
I think Mr. Romney will do quite well in Deseretland... especially Colorado. The key is always OHIO... and a massive voter turnout. BARRY OBAMA! ;o)
Thanks AT LAST for a map with the correct colors! Red for the socialists and pinkos, blue for the patriots!
That being said, I think you’ve made at least two mistakes:
1. You show Vermont as blue. It’s actually the reddest place in the USA, with the only self-declared socialist in the U. S. Senate.
2. You show Nevada as red. Nope. The large Mormon population there will give Romney a lock.
Therefore, when we correct for those two errors, Romney gains a net of three electoral votes. And if we accept the rest of your predictions, the final tally is Romney 271, Øbama 267.
On top of that, I think Indiana is also a lock for Romney. So even if he doesn’t win Ohio, I gotta put Romney’s electoral total at 282 or better.
Normally, any Republican should win this in a landslide against Carter, er, I mean Obama. Unfortunately, liberal/progressive Romney is no Republican.
While I fully expect SC to stay in the GOP column, IMHO the vote tally is going to be closer than many think: 1.) Mitt's religion. 2.) Gov. Haley, a Mitt endorser, falling from favor. 3.) Demographics and immigration from the NE and FLA.
“I have said for months that the polls are meaningless because no one is going to tell a pollster that they disapprove of Obama and risk being called a racist.”
I agree that these polls intuitively seem way off however I do not agree with the above statement in general. That’s margin of error material.
It's not just "support' ~ you can buy that, but what do you do when you win the delegates in a state with fewer votes than you got in 2008?
You can win if and only if you can get people to literally support you and go door to door and stick up signs and create some sense that there's something there!
So, after all that work Rove has to admit his boy is a loser.
I could have told him that.
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