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Karl Rove's Early Electoral Map: OBAMA WINS
Business Insider ^ | 04/26/2012 | Brett LoGiurato

Posted on 04/26/2012 12:15:14 PM PDT by SeekAndFind

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To: SeekAndFind
Romney will lose in a close one. 270 to 268.


51 posted on 04/26/2012 1:17:04 PM PDT by Theoria (Rush Limbaugh: Ron Paul sounds like an Islamic terrorist)
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To: SeekAndFind

Rove is wrong again.

No way Obama wins Nevada. Think about it.

For several others, there are arguments to be made each way, but Nevada? C’mon...what’s he going to say will go to Obama next...Idaho? Utah?


52 posted on 04/26/2012 1:18:52 PM PDT by B Knotts (Just another Tenther)
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To: SeekAndFind
Missouri a tossup? LOL!

Missouri voted against B.O. LAST TIME and even so, the “mood” around here was very liberal. No more.

What the media missed about our “Raucous Caucus” here was that the attendance was TEN TIMES all previous experience - and even in the re-do caucus, everyone showed up AGAIN.

Missouri may look like a tossup from inside the beltway to Rove but then, Rove is an idiot.

53 posted on 04/26/2012 1:19:42 PM PDT by Da Bilge Troll (Defeatism is not a winning strategy!)
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To: SeekAndFind

And for helping shape today’s Republican Party which can’t bring about an electoral majority against the worst President in American history, we can thank ...

... Karl Rove.


54 posted on 04/26/2012 1:21:42 PM PDT by Colonel_Flagg (There will be no vote for Myth Romney in my house. Period.)
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To: Peter from Rutland
His analysis does not square with just about everything else I’ve read. He’s giving states to Obama that are squarely up in the air or leaning Republican.

I'd say he's making states a Republican will probably carry into leaning Republican or toss-up states. But taking into account the advantages of incumbency, I'd say Obama stands a pretty good chance of carrying OH, PA, and MI. It's certainly not a lock, but a Republican will have to work hard to win those states.

Here's an alternative map that may be more plausible:


55 posted on 04/26/2012 1:24:27 PM PDT by x
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To: Theoria

RE: Your map

So, Democratic states are now red and Republican states are now blue? When did that happen?


56 posted on 04/26/2012 1:24:51 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
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To: Theoria
Nevada? Indiana? And Romney winning Vermont? And splitting Nebraska?

Uh...I don't think so. My map has Romney 311, Obama 227. But a lot can change.

I'm pretty sure Obama will win Vermont before he wins Indiana, though.

57 posted on 04/26/2012 1:26:51 PM PDT by B Knotts (Just another Tenther)
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To: SeekAndFind

It just happened to be the map program that I used. As a whole though, I always found it odd that the traditional conservative color of blue was placed on dems and the red of socialism placed on the gop.


58 posted on 04/26/2012 1:29:29 PM PDT by Theoria (Rush Limbaugh: Ron Paul sounds like an Islamic terrorist)
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To: B Knotts

Yeah, looking now, I really screwed up on a lot of them. It won’t be a landslide for Obama, no matter what.


59 posted on 04/26/2012 1:31:18 PM PDT by Theoria (Rush Limbaugh: Ron Paul sounds like an Islamic terrorist)
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To: SnakeDoctor
"Hell, Texas is only “leaning Romney”. That’s just stupid. No way Texas goes Obama. "

It's just a matter of time and demographics. Texas WILL flip to the blue side eventually. Mexicans outbreed whites and blacks.

60 posted on 04/26/2012 1:32:37 PM PDT by matthew fuller (Mitt Romney is the supreme exemplification of the word SMARMY.)
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To: SeekAndFind

But, but, but, but, but Karl the Great told us the Mittster was the only electable One. And now Karl’s the one with buyer’s remorse??


61 posted on 04/26/2012 1:40:47 PM PDT by Houghton M.
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To: DennisR

Yup, focus everything on those Senate races. I remember some polling a month or so ago that showed the Senate Democrats doing much worse in the polls than Obama was at the time. Gridlocking Obama for the next 4 years has an upside. His ability to be President would be exhausted during a time he couldn’t do much. Frankly we’re lucky the economy was as bad as it was while he was President, otherwise he would have had much more leeway to pass more socialist welfare programs and corrupt stimulus measures. If Obama loses, he could run again for another term years down the road, at a time when there is a liberal Congress waiting for him and do far more damage. And I’m not sure the Dems have a better weapon in the wings for later, someone as far-left and as charismatic in selling it to the public. So there is an upside to burning him out now while he’s weak, especially since the alternative is his progressive Republican counterpart, Mitt.


62 posted on 04/26/2012 1:41:05 PM PDT by JediJones (From the makers of Romney, Bloomberg/Schwarzenegger 2016. Because the GOP can never go too far left.)
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To: Dan Nunn

The RCP average map isn’t much different.


63 posted on 04/26/2012 1:50:31 PM PDT by Bubba Ho-Tep ("More weight!"--Giles Corey)
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To: SeekAndFind; Theoria
"So, Democratic states are now red and Republican states are now blue? When did that happen? "

Many of us oldtimers remember that the way Theoria has it is the original color scheme.

64 posted on 04/26/2012 1:51:49 PM PDT by matthew fuller (Mitt Romney is the supreme exemplification of the word SMARMY.)
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To: x

FL & OH aren’t swing states. The Republican will easily win them. In 2010, both of those states elected new U.S. senators, and both are Republicans. In ‘10, both of those states elected new governors, and both are Republicans.


65 posted on 04/26/2012 1:52:25 PM PDT by PhilCollins
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To: DManA
Uncle Walter was marveling at the lopsided defeat of his man Jimmah. Mentioned that a poll taken the weekend before the election showed a dead heat with Reagan having a slim 3% lead.

Maybe Uncle Walter didn't know but Carter did. Pat Caddell, his pollster, told Carter on Sunday evening that all his polling showed that Carter had no chance to win the election which was two days away.

66 posted on 04/26/2012 1:59:32 PM PDT by CommerceComet (If Mitt can leave the GOP to protest Reagan, why can't I do the same in protest of Romney?)
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To: SeekAndFind

I would have voted for Newt....


67 posted on 04/26/2012 2:06:51 PM PDT by Gator113 (***YOU GAVE it to Obama. I would have voted for NEWT.~Just livin' life, my way~)
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To: Jim Robinson
Looks like TEA hating-Rove is out of sync with Landslide Rush.

Romney Could Win in a Landslide
Rush Limbaugh

68 posted on 04/26/2012 2:08:01 PM PDT by onyx (SUPPORT FREE REPUBLIC, DONATE MONTHLY. If you want on Sarah Palin's Ping List, let me know.)
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To: Jim Robinson
Looks like TEA hating-Rove is out of sync with Landslide Rush.

Romney Could Win in a Landslide
Rush Limbaugh

69 posted on 04/26/2012 2:08:01 PM PDT by onyx (SUPPORT FREE REPUBLIC, DONATE MONTHLY. If you want on Sarah Palin's Ping List, let me know.)
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To: SeekAndFind
Texas is solid, not "leaning," NC is not a toss-up. As of today, it's leaning R.

As me again about the latter following their Traditional Marriage amendment state constitutional vote on their primary ballot.

70 posted on 04/26/2012 2:11:18 PM PDT by Prospero
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To: kidd
Which means Romney has to flip either MI, OH or PA to win. Any one of them.

PA's not possible for Romney. McCain was probably the ideal Republican to run in PA and he performed horribly. Mitt doesn't stand a chance. FL was a 2-point spread, OH 4-point and PA 10-point. Let's not forget Toomey barely won his Senate seat in PA in 2010 during the big Tea Party year by a 2-point spread. MI was a huge 17-point spread so you can forget about that one too.

71 posted on 04/26/2012 2:11:24 PM PDT by JediJones (From the makers of Romney, Bloomberg/Schwarzenegger 2016. Because the GOP can never go too far left.)
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To: ConservativeTeen

I laughed at that one, too!


72 posted on 04/26/2012 2:12:27 PM PDT by Andy'smom
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To: SeekAndFind

“That’s the way uh huh uh huh karl likes it... uh huh uh huh”!

LLS


73 posted on 04/26/2012 2:13:29 PM PDT by LibLieSlayer (Pray hard and often!)
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To: SeekAndFind

SC a toss-up?? Get real.


74 posted on 04/26/2012 2:16:41 PM PDT by Norman Bates
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To: SeekAndFind

I think Mr. Romney will do quite well in Deseretland... especially Colorado. The key is always OHIO... and a massive voter turnout. BARRY OBAMA! ;o)


75 posted on 04/26/2012 2:18:39 PM PDT by Mashood
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To: Theoria

Thanks AT LAST for a map with the correct colors! Red for the socialists and pinkos, blue for the patriots!

That being said, I think you’ve made at least two mistakes:

1. You show Vermont as blue. It’s actually the reddest place in the USA, with the only self-declared socialist in the U. S. Senate.

2. You show Nevada as red. Nope. The large Mormon population there will give Romney a lock.

Therefore, when we correct for those two errors, Romney gains a net of three electoral votes. And if we accept the rest of your predictions, the final tally is Romney 271, Øbama 267.

On top of that, I think Indiana is also a lock for Romney. So even if he doesn’t win Ohio, I gotta put Romney’s electoral total at 282 or better.


76 posted on 04/26/2012 2:18:49 PM PDT by Hawthorn
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To: onyx

Normally, any Republican should win this in a landslide against Carter, er, I mean Obama. Unfortunately, liberal/progressive Romney is no Republican.


77 posted on 04/26/2012 2:21:46 PM PDT by Jim Robinson (Rebellion is on!!)
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To: Sybeck1
"Is SC a toss up ------?"

While I fully expect SC to stay in the GOP column, IMHO the vote tally is going to be closer than many think: 1.) Mitt's religion. 2.) Gov. Haley, a Mitt endorser, falling from favor. 3.) Demographics and immigration from the NE and FLA.

78 posted on 04/26/2012 2:24:41 PM PDT by buckalfa (Nabob of Negativity)
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To: Deb

“I have said for months that the polls are meaningless because no one is going to tell a pollster that they disapprove of Obama and risk being called a racist.”

I agree that these polls intuitively seem way off however I do not agree with the above statement in general. That’s margin of error material.


79 posted on 04/26/2012 2:29:15 PM PDT by Norman Bates
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To: Peter from Rutland
Rove is giving states to Obama where there's no visible Romney supporters.

It's not just "support' ~ you can buy that, but what do you do when you win the delegates in a state with fewer votes than you got in 2008?

You can win if and only if you can get people to literally support you and go door to door and stick up signs and create some sense that there's something there!

So, after all that work Rove has to admit his boy is a loser.

I could have told him that.

80 posted on 04/26/2012 2:32:34 PM PDT by muawiyah
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To: fhayek
Rubio has managed to alienate every "TEAParty" movement in every state.

Selecting him to run with Romney is simply throwing more heavy towels in the toilet!~

81 posted on 04/26/2012 2:35:06 PM PDT by muawiyah
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To: Buckeye McFrog

“at this stage in the game, any map or chart that Karl produces is done for the purpose of raising money for the GOP.”

Repeat three times in a row, Freepers.
Buckeye nailed it.


82 posted on 04/26/2012 2:39:42 PM PDT by Mountain Mary (We not not inherit the earth from our ancestors. We borrow it from our children. Native American P.)
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To: SeekAndFind

Many of us who are supporters of the other candidates have argued for a long time that Etch-a-Sketch is about as electable as McCain, Dole, or Ford. Now the Romneybot Rove appears to be on board.


83 posted on 04/26/2012 2:40:07 PM PDT by TBP (Obama lies, Granny dies.)
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To: Jim Robinson

Another problem is the idiot GOP elitists only understand how to market to people exactly like themselves, i.e. socially liberal urban professionals with lots of college education. That myopic view is one reason why they wanted Romney. They think they can get the “independent” Democrat voters who think, act and live like them to switch sides.

In reality, the biggest disconnect out there is how so many minority voters are SOCIALLY CONSERVATIVE but vote Democrat, even though their party doesn’t speak to those views at all. A better strategy would be to push social conservatism to try to make Hispanics and others realize that the Republicans are the party of traditional morality and family values.

So this self-absorbed view on the part of the GOP establishment, assuming that the only important voters are ones who think exactly like them, is another reason they’ll probably lose.


84 posted on 04/26/2012 2:40:55 PM PDT by JediJones (From the makers of Romney, Bloomberg/Schwarzenegger 2016. Because the GOP can never go too far left.)
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To: B Knotts

The Nevada thing has to do with Mormon demographics ~ they are union miners.


85 posted on 04/26/2012 2:42:26 PM PDT by muawiyah
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To: SeekAndFind

I wouldn’t worry too much about his ‘scary prediction’, it’s just his way of getting even with Conservative Republicans for turning their backs on him.

Nice try though.


86 posted on 04/26/2012 2:44:50 PM PDT by RetSignman
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To: Theoria
I always found it odd that the traditional conservative color of blue was placed on dems and the red of socialism placed on the gop.

That's because the Dumbocrats are always feeling depressed because Republicans are so much hotter than them.

87 posted on 04/26/2012 2:45:23 PM PDT by JediJones (From the makers of Romney, Bloomberg/Schwarzenegger 2016. Because the GOP can never go too far left.)
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To: JediJones
In reality, the biggest disconnect out there is how so many minority voters are SOCIALLY CONSERVATIVE but vote Democrat, even though their party doesn’t speak to those views at all. A better strategy would be to push social conservatism to try to make Hispanics and others realize that the Republicans are the party of traditional morality and family values.

Socially conservative from the point of the country as a whole, maybe. But socially conservative in terms of the Republican Party, maybe not.

What I mean, is even when swing voters consider themselves socially conservative they won't always vote for the most socially conservative Republicans.

Those voters are socially conservative in comparison with liberal Democrats, but can be pretty moderate in comparison with the most conservative Republicans.

Also, they may respond well to pro-life and pro-family themes, but not to Republican economic policies.

We've seen this before with very devout minority voters who still vote heavily for Democrats. No reason to think that would change anytime soon.

88 posted on 04/26/2012 2:53:17 PM PDT by x
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To: SeekAndFind

And this is the guy Rove wanted to win the nomination????? He is only NOW realizing he backed a loser!


89 posted on 04/26/2012 2:54:47 PM PDT by Godzilla (3/7/77)
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To: SeekAndFind
Rove's an idiot and an attention junkie, and what better way for an idiot and attention junkie to garner attention than by saying something contrary and outrageous? Come on, people. We've seen this sort of crap before. I can't believe all the weak knees in this thread. You act like it's your first election and the first time you've heard B.S.


90 posted on 04/26/2012 2:57:27 PM PDT by Cinnamontea
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To: SeekAndFind
This is total Tokyo Rove “Hey look at me! please”
Obama is now 20 points down with Catholics and the fight has not yet really begun. NO DEMOCRAT HAS EVER WON WHILE LOSING THE CATHOLIC VOTE. TWENTY POINTS IS AN HOLE HE CAN'T GET OUT OF. Republicans can lose with Catholics and still win but not Democrats. Those who hate Romney can grab Tokyo's straw but it won't mean anything. Obama is either losing or behind where he has to be with EVERY group even Blacks and Jews. The generic shows the Rats down 10 which is HUGE and in Fla Ohio and Wisconsin the likely Republican Senate candidate is 10 points or more ahead of his Democrat opponent.
Rove is full of shiite!
91 posted on 04/26/2012 2:58:37 PM PDT by jmaroneps37 (Conservatism is truth. Liberalism is lies.)
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To: Cinnamontea
P.S.: I'll take Rush's thoughts on what's going to happen in November over Rove's any day.


92 posted on 04/26/2012 2:58:45 PM PDT by Cinnamontea
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To: Jim Robinson

I’m happy our energies will be devoted to TEA Party candidates!

The liars are free to do battle between themselves.


93 posted on 04/26/2012 2:59:17 PM PDT by onyx (SUPPORT FREE REPUBLIC, DONATE MONTHLY. If you want on Sarah Palin's Ping List, let me know.)
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To: x
Also, they may respond well to pro-life and pro-family themes, but not to Republican economic policies.

That's true, but the Republicans are trying to appeal to the opposite, the socially liberal, well-off, white voters who might like conservative economic policy. Trouble is they're violating conservative orthodoxy by changing their views on social conservatism. It's a much more natural fit for the party to seek out minority voters, especially since we don't have to change our economic policy much if it all, but simply explain stuff like the "trickle-down" theory better. And, arguably, the Hispanic voters are the most important demographic we need to appeal to going forward.

To hang on to those socially liberal voters later, they need to abandon their social conservative principles pretty much completely and permanently. To get minority voters, as well as any remaining white Reagan Democrat types, we ought to be able to stick to all our principles, and simply work on the marketing and messaging of our economic views. Our economic philosophies result in a better country for all.

94 posted on 04/26/2012 3:01:50 PM PDT by JediJones (From the makers of Romney, Bloomberg/Schwarzenegger 2016. Because the GOP can never go too far left.)
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To: muawiyah

Everyone thinks Rove is this mastermind but consider that he was going up against Al Gore and John Kerry and barely eeked out a win.

The guy is over rated.


95 posted on 04/26/2012 3:13:11 PM PDT by Peter from Rutland
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To: CommerceComet

I think theoretically good polls can be taken but the crap they give out free to the public are nothing but propaganda.


96 posted on 04/26/2012 3:20:38 PM PDT by DManA
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To: SnakeDoctor
Rove is trying to motivate Republicans to back Romney.

Bingo

97 posted on 04/26/2012 3:41:52 PM PDT by Lazlo in PA (Now living in a newly minted Red State.)
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To: bkepley
So cheer up everyone...the RINO loses :)

ROTFLMAO!

98 posted on 04/26/2012 4:10:17 PM PDT by Jeff Chandler (You mean we have a choice between M.R. and B.O.?)
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99 posted on 04/26/2012 5:03:03 PM PDT by TheOldLady (FReepmail me to get ON or OFF the ZOT LIGHTNING ping list)
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To: backwoods-engineer

“The question becomes: what do we do to stop Obama from implementing his agenda from 2013-2016?”

The answer likely depends on how many Republican Congressmen and Senators are either RINO’s or have a skeleton in their closets the administration can exploit. Remember the 900 FBI files during the Clinton years. No doubt Big Sis Napolitano has collected plenty of information over the past 3 1/2 years.


100 posted on 04/26/2012 7:05:53 PM PDT by Soul of the South (When times are tough the tough get going.)
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