Skip to comments.60 in 2012 ( The Senate, Vanity )
Posted on 04/28/2012 7:57:03 AM PDT by taildragger
If we look at the Senatorial Landscape IMHO a pattern is emerging. Lugar, almost gone, Ditto that Hatch. And the one that floors me, Menendez in New Jersery vs. (R) Kyrillos. Menendez is at 43% and Kyrillos is at 33% 7 months out, and Menendez is below the magic 50% mark. That screams to me he is in political trouble. If it is that bad in "blue" New Jersey, what are the winds of political fortune for other Republican / Conservative challengers in other States like Michigan.
With that said, I am gonna go out on a limb and ask the almost unthinkable. is "60 in 2012" a distinct reality?
IMHO I think so. Dick Morris, regardless how you may feel about him is saying a pick up of 8 today, and he isn't to bad at this game.
Tangent to this, these races cost the Dems big money. I do not see how they can afford to defend all their Senate Seats and Re-elect Obama. I don't think he is taking in the money he is supposed too, and the Unions pockets can only be so deep.
In December of 09' I posted almost one month before he won, that this guy Scott Brown is the 60th vote to stop Obamacare and does anyone here on FR see it? I posted I think he can pull it off, and was told he didn't have a chance, my gut feel told me otherwise.
My gut is now telling me a Super Majority in the Senate is not out of the question either...
A penny for your thoughts Freepers..
November is a very long way off, and the voters have the attention span of a 3 year old. Gasoline is swinging up and down, and housing is tentative.
Way too early to make predictions.
The latest I ran a comparison on showed Obama with net losses in favorability among the various ethnic groups latest polls (i looked at) vs. 08
White - -4%
(this will rise) Black - -15%
(this will drop) Hispanic - 12%
(this could go either way) Asian - -16%
(this will remain about the same) Read into it what you want, but the board is being set up for a serious GOP run on house, senate and WH, plus down ticket races. Anyone in the WH that is not scared sh*tless is lying.
What's funny is that the LSM will keep a "horserace" story line just to garner headlines, but there is a chance that the a serious blowout could happen.
Menendez is not losing in Jersey. There’s no guarantee Lugar’s Tea Party challenger can win the general, while Lugar is an automatic win. Mack is falling behind in Fl.And despite the idea of many in this forum, a party that loses the presidential election does not often come away with gains in Congress. So when Romney goes down, as many here hope for, for whatever reasons, you can expect that the numbers of Dems in Congress will, at best,slightly decrease and ,at worst, restore the Witch of the West to the Speaker’s Chair while allowing Dingy harry to keep his place.
“board is being set up for a serious GOP run on house, senate and WH”
As usual, the left in the republican party are saying “it’s not looking so good, don’t get your hopes up” etc.
Obama will lose 15% of the black vote? I wish I could believe that, but NFW. Black votes black even when it’s obvious they are worse off for it. Kwame Kilpatrick and Coleman Young continued to get re-elected Mayor of Detroit, even though they were both unapologetic looters.
The only hope is if they stay home thinking he’s a lock.
“more than removing the Illegal Alien from the people’s WH”
Yes and another subgroup that encompass many of the above is a Faith and is the largest voting block and they "Catholics".
Not to characterize them, but the tend to be resonable, and a guy like Newt would have been to scary. Romney maybe "likeable" to them, and given what Obama has done via his edict against their internal services medical plans and the reponse from the Cardinals, their is no other way for me to say it, they are pissed. And with that in mind the ticked-off-ness may carry with them in the voting both, against Obama and his minions...
You are probably right, they must know this ( The Obamaton's running the campaign ) as well and they are "scared sh*tless"...
I’m an optimist therefore I too will keep the faith ....but this will take boucoupe work for
We’ll need 60 to even begin to shut 0bama down during his 2nd term. I expect he will go wild, wielding Executive power. If you thought the past year or two was bad, you ain’t seen nothin’ yet!
I missed a paragraph break there, the (this will go down) should have been aligned to that stat. I agree, Obama will not lose 15% of the Black vote. Thanks for catching that.
> “...And despite the idea of many in this forum, a party that loses the presidential election does not often come away with gains in Congress...”
My Oh My......Where to begin?
The 1996 elections to the United States Senate coincided with the 1996 presidential election, in which Democrats Bill Clinton and Al Gore were reelected President and Vice President of the United States, respectively.
1996 was all about repudiation of the RINO Dole. It would have been so easy to defeat Clinton if only a conservative candidate had been backed by the GOP-e. As it was, Clinton gained only about 49% of the vote to Dole’s 43%. That’s an incredibly weak showing for an incumbent President.
There again in 1996 the GOP establishment put up an extremely poor candidate yet the grassroots responded in kind by increasing conservative power in Congress.
We have a despicable candidate in Romney, the same pattern emerges. He will be rejected and the conservative grassroots will continue to make gains with increasing Tea Party influence.
Despite the reelection of Clinton and Gore, the Republicans had a net gain of two seats in the Senate, following major Republican gains two years previously in the 1994 elections.
The POTENTIAL is there for 60 or so.
Combination of a weak incumbent at the top and lots of opportunities across the country.
Not so secret: Obama, in desperation, will fundraise his ass off, leaving many vulnerable Democrat incumbents out to dry.
Thanks for the reality check. I fear not to post my wild ideas here on FR to get the pro & con. My best, TD...
Throw in the dems desperate attempts that seem to explode in their faces (war women, doggie cruelty, polygamy), Fast and Furious, Solyndra, Arab Spring, the economy, his exposed attempts at deception, contraception, his attacks on the Catholic Church, attacks on states, kissy-kisses to Putin, Obeycare, gas prices and attempts to cripple US coal and oil (virtually guaranteeing high gas prices all year)......jeez, this could be a long list....
Oppose all of the above against a squeaky clean Republican opponent who knows international business and money, who's got resources, and is determined as hell to stop this madness.
Bottom line. He doesn't stand a chance. The game is finally on. We've just begun the fight. Romney is sounding strong so far. No attempts to get the squishy middle so far. Sure, he's not the conservative I'd like to see taking on Obey, but we will make it work. It'll be a Reagan like landside. NY, Illinois, California is all he'll get, and I'm not even sure about all of those because the shift has just begun.
What's Obey gonna' do this summer to turn it around? His policies won't work. It'll only get worse, as more and more start to pay attention and notice what grand incompetence is screwing up everything he touches.
And the one that floors me, Menendez in New Jersery vs. (R) Kyrillos. Menendez is at 43% and Kyrillos is at 33% 7 months out, and Menendez is below the magic 50% mark.
Joe Kyrillos, Hobart class of 1981! I live in Florida and am sending him some money today. All HWS freepers please send him a couple of dollars.
What difference would it make, the GOP could then pass whatever legislation it wanted, but then Obama would just veto it all.
Even if we get to the magic number of 60, Boehner and his ilk will toss away the advantage, allowing the elected Liberal to run all over them again.