Skip to comments.Mitt Romney’s road to presidency this fall looks narrow on electoral map
Posted on 04/30/2012 9:13:27 PM PDT by Clintonfatigued
Bushs two successful races, and the map on which he built them, are quite instructive when trying to understand Romneys narrow margin for error this fall.
In 2000, Bush won 271 electoral votes one more than he needed to claim the presidency. In eking out that victory, Bush not only carried the South and Plains states with a near sweep but also claimed wins in swing states such as Nevada, Colorado, Missouri and the major electoral-vote prizes of Ohio and Florida.
If Romney was able to duplicate Bushs 2000 map, he would take 285 electoral votes thanks to redistricting gains over the past decade.
But to do so, Romney would need not only to win the five swing states mentioned above with the exception of Missouri, all of them are considered tossups (at worst) for the president at the moment but also hang on to states such as North Carolina and Virginia where Bush cruised 12 years ago. (Obama carried both states in
Now, the good(ish) news for Romney is that if he has a low ceiling, he also has a relatively high floor.
Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) won 173 electoral votes in 2008. If Romney carried those same 22 states under the 2012 map, he would win 180 electoral votes.
Add Indiana, which McCain lost but which will almost certainly go for Romney in 2012, and the former Massachusetts governors electoral floor sits at 191.
Given the narrowness of his electoral map window, the key for Romney this fall is to win in places that Bush, McCain and other Republican nominees over the past two decades have struggled to make inroads. No Republican has carried Pennsylvania (20 electoral votes), Michigan (16) or Wisconsin (10) in any of the past five elections, for example.
(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonpost.com ...
Let’s just ask George Soros since he’s the one who is picking these guys and calling the win.
Watch Wisconsin implode on the unionthugLiberal camp.
They went after the Good Gov who want to save schools and local town from having to live under restrictive union rules, and the Big union power borkers went ballistic. So far, $1 billion or more was waved in wisconsin and hte union leaders can abide that. So they are going after Gov Walker.
Liberals twerps like this will have their heads explode when Gov Walker survives the odious union-driven recall election, and uses his victory to win the Senate seat - former Gov Tommmy Thompson will win over the lesbian liberal Baldwin ... AND deny 10 electoral votes ffrom Obama, giving Romney 10 more EVs to pad his november victory.
1. The democrat cheating today may be worse than the cheating in 2000/2004. They didn’t have a marxist administration going after photo id laws the states have decided they want to ensure the voter voting is who they claim to be. Voter integrity.
2. People were more jazzed to vote for Bush than Romney.
3. Wisconsin is in play, will most likely go heavy Republican.
Precisely, and long time no see.
Lets just ask George Soros since hes the one who is picking these guys and calling the win.
Isn’t a Soros owned company in Spain going to count our votes.....from Spain?
Reelection campaigns are about the incumbent not the challenges. Obama numbers are in the mid 40’s% disaster for an incumbent.
That’s the only reason Romney has a chance.
Obama is such an awful president...
Here’s how it breaks down.
In 2008. Obama won the electoral vote by 365 to 173. If he replecated that win this year, it would be 357 to 181, due to the census. What will change?
Obama won a single electoral vote from Nebraska. Romney will get that back easily. Also, Obama very narrowly won Indiana, but has become highly unpopular there. That would give Romney 192 electoral votes. Obama will try to win Arizona, claiming that McCain won it only due to home state loyalty. That’s 11 votes at stake. If Indiana and Arizona switch alleagance, that gives Obama a 358 to 180 edge.
The states where it will be won are the northeastern New England, industrial Midwest, the south-central Atlantic Coast, and the western Rocky Mountains.
Out West, Nevada, Arizona, & New Mexico are being eyed. Obama won New Mexico easily and few expect him to lose it again. Arizona is still leaning Republican, though it’s closer than in 2008. That leaves Nevada. Obama won comfortably there in 2008, but it voted narrowly for Bush twice. No state is in worse economic condition, but demographic changes in Las Vegas have helped Democrats.
Virginia and North Carolina bear watching. North Carolina very narrowly went for Obama and seems to be tilting slightly for Romney. Virginia went for Obama by a larger-than-expected margin. Government workers make up a growing share of the voters, but the rest of the state has soured on him. It could go either way.
That leaves the industrial Midwest and upper Midwest to watch, stretching from Pennsylvania to Minnesota and Iowa. That is where the election will likely be decided. The Upper Midwest (Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan) were considered safely Democrat. But aside from Michigan, Obama ran only slightly ahead of his national average and Bush almost won those states in both elections. Even Michigan has to be disillusioned with Obama, given its abysmal economy.
New Hampshire and Maine went comfortably for Obama, but swung heavily Republican in 2010. Bush won New Hampshire in 2000 and nearly won it again in 2004. Maine tilts more to the left, but has a strong independent streak. Romney has residual name I.D. locally and may run ahead of party lines there.
Now, the indistrial Midwest. With Illinois safely for Obama and Indiana safely for Romney, that means that Pennsylvania and Ohio are the two most important states this year.
Romney’s chances are ‘off the cliff’ with me.
I will NEVER vote for him. I said that in 2008 and I’ve been saying that all over again.
He’s a lying p.o.s.
Bush pissed in the voting pool during his second term..
Obama has left some floaters..
Romneys not good with the strainer and has no chlorine..
The BBQ was left filty and the pit bulls are “out”..
Could be...... a lot will leave the party..
“the best thing that can happen to conservatives in 2012 is that Romney is narrowly defeated by Obama while both the Senate and House go solid Republican.”
One thing you’re forgetting is the U.S. Supreme Court. There are four elderly judges who may leave during the next four years.
haaaaaaaaa !! true dat
Why should they vote for Dem-Lite, when they can vote for the real thing?
He is campaigning in all 57 states and he dumped Biden for Osama!
Obama will not win NC and VA this time.