Posted on 04/30/2012 9:13:27 PM PDT by Clintonfatigued
Bush’s two successful races, and the map on which he built them, are quite instructive when trying to understand Romney’s narrow margin for error this fall.
In 2000, Bush won 271 electoral votes — one more than he needed to claim the presidency. In eking out that victory, Bush not only carried the South and Plains states with a near sweep but also claimed wins in swing states such as Nevada, Colorado, Missouri and the major electoral-vote prizes of Ohio and Florida.
If Romney was able to duplicate Bush’s 2000 map, he would take 285 electoral votes — thanks to redistricting gains over the past decade.
But to do so, Romney would need not only to win the five swing states mentioned above — with the exception of Missouri, all of them are considered tossups (at worst) for the president at the moment — but also hang on to states such as North Carolina and Virginia where Bush cruised 12 years ago. (Obama carried both states in
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Now, the good(ish) news for Romney is that if he has a low ceiling, he also has a relatively high floor.
Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) won 173 electoral votes in 2008. If Romney carried those same 22 states under the 2012 map, he would win 180 electoral votes.
Add Indiana, which McCain lost but which will almost certainly go for Romney in 2012, and the former Massachusetts governor’s electoral floor sits at 191.
Given the narrowness of his electoral map window, the key for Romney this fall is to win in places that Bush, McCain and other Republican nominees over the past two decades have struggled to make inroads. No Republican has carried Pennsylvania (20 electoral votes), Michigan (16) or Wisconsin (10) in any of the past five elections, for example.
(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonpost.com ...
Let’s just ask George Soros since he’s the one who is picking these guys and calling the win.
Watch Wisconsin implode on the unionthugLiberal camp.
They went after the Good Gov who want to save schools and local town from having to live under restrictive union rules, and the Big union power borkers went ballistic. So far, $1 billion or more was waved in wisconsin and hte union leaders can abide that. So they are going after Gov Walker.
Liberals twerps like this will have their heads explode when Gov Walker survives the odious union-driven recall election, and uses his victory to win the Senate seat - former Gov Tommmy Thompson will win over the lesbian liberal Baldwin ... AND deny 10 electoral votes ffrom Obama, giving Romney 10 more EVs to pad his november victory.
1. The democrat cheating today may be worse than the cheating in 2000/2004. They didn’t have a marxist administration going after photo id laws the states have decided they want to ensure the voter voting is who they claim to be. Voter integrity.
2. People were more jazzed to vote for Bush than Romney.
3. Wisconsin is in play, will most likely go heavy Republican.
Precisely, and long time no see.
Let’s just ask George Soros since he’s the one who is picking these guys and calling the win.
Isn’t a Soros owned company in Spain going to count our votes.....from Spain?
Reelection campaigns are about the incumbent not the challenges. Obama numbers are in the mid 40’s% disaster for an incumbent.
That’s the only reason Romney has a chance.
Obama is such an awful president...
Here’s how it breaks down.
In 2008. Obama won the electoral vote by 365 to 173. If he replecated that win this year, it would be 357 to 181, due to the census. What will change?
Obama won a single electoral vote from Nebraska. Romney will get that back easily. Also, Obama very narrowly won Indiana, but has become highly unpopular there. That would give Romney 192 electoral votes. Obama will try to win Arizona, claiming that McCain won it only due to home state loyalty. That’s 11 votes at stake. If Indiana and Arizona switch alleagance, that gives Obama a 358 to 180 edge.
The states where it will be won are the northeastern New England, industrial Midwest, the south-central Atlantic Coast, and the western Rocky Mountains.
Out West, Nevada, Arizona, & New Mexico are being eyed. Obama won New Mexico easily and few expect him to lose it again. Arizona is still leaning Republican, though it’s closer than in 2008. That leaves Nevada. Obama won comfortably there in 2008, but it voted narrowly for Bush twice. No state is in worse economic condition, but demographic changes in Las Vegas have helped Democrats.
Virginia and North Carolina bear watching. North Carolina very narrowly went for Obama and seems to be tilting slightly for Romney. Virginia went for Obama by a larger-than-expected margin. Government workers make up a growing share of the voters, but the rest of the state has soured on him. It could go either way.
That leaves the industrial Midwest and upper Midwest to watch, stretching from Pennsylvania to Minnesota and Iowa. That is where the election will likely be decided. The Upper Midwest (Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan) were considered safely Democrat. But aside from Michigan, Obama ran only slightly ahead of his national average and Bush almost won those states in both elections. Even Michigan has to be disillusioned with Obama, given its abysmal economy.
New Hampshire and Maine went comfortably for Obama, but swung heavily Republican in 2010. Bush won New Hampshire in 2000 and nearly won it again in 2004. Maine tilts more to the left, but has a strong independent streak. Romney has residual name I.D. locally and may run ahead of party lines there.
Now, the indistrial Midwest. With Illinois safely for Obama and Indiana safely for Romney, that means that Pennsylvania and Ohio are the two most important states this year.
Romney’s chances are ‘off the cliff’ with me.
I will NEVER vote for him. I said that in 2008 and I’ve been saying that all over again.
He’s a lying p.o.s.
Bush pissed in the voting pool during his second term..
Obama has left some floaters..
Romneys not good with the strainer and has no chlorine..
The BBQ was left filty and the pit bulls are “out”..
Could be...... a lot will leave the party..
“the best thing that can happen to conservatives in 2012 is that Romney is narrowly defeated by Obama while both the Senate and House go solid Republican.”
One thing you’re forgetting is the U.S. Supreme Court. There are four elderly judges who may leave during the next four years.
haaaaaaaaa !! true dat
Why should they vote for Dem-Lite, when they can vote for the real thing?
He is campaigning in all 57 states and he dumped Biden for Osama!
Obama will not win NC and VA this time.
I’ll write in Newt.
Wow.
Someone on another thread said he’d never seen anyone post on FR that they planned to pull the lever for Barack Hussein Obama.
I noted that I hadn’t seen many such posts, but I had seen at least two.
Make that three now.
Curious times at FR.
I see you around all the time but once you’ve posted there’s nothing left to say! LOL
Exactly. Remember, he made excuses for the liberals he appointed as governor because there was a liberal majority in Mass. What's the dif when he's president then?
I have seen headlines talking about a Spanish company counting our votes but that's about all I know. Don't even know if that's true. Wouldn't surprise me at this point.
Well, yes it would have been better if the GOP had been able to find a reasonable candidate who could contest Obama, but since they didn't all we're left with is hoping that all those four hang tough - unless you expect president etch-a-sketch to not stab us all in the back with an O'Connor.
I could never bring myself to pull the lever for BamBam Barack but I do think we’ll be better off with gridlock and letting Obama burn out his 8 years than with Romney having another moderate Republican presidency that frustrates the base and leads to a full Democrat takeover, a la 1992 and 2006-2008. Obama’s hands are pretty well tied from doing what he wants to do with a bad economy and a Republican Congress. Chances are Romney would unwittingly set up a much more powerful liberal majority for 2016 if he wins, which would be very dangerous.
Have you been paying attention lately? The breaucracy has been running wild with the 'Executive Orders', and the 'Secretary May Decide' decisions.
Another four years of this crap, and we're cooked.
Plus, in 2010 Obama was dealt a terrible slap in the face. He has ignored the will of the people. It will get worse if he wins again: he will be a lame duck president and can do whatever he wants, especially with executive orders.
A POV-opposite-to-mine ping.
That’s still a far cry from being able to pass Obamacare, cap-and-trade, another stimulus, etc. I’m expecting Obamacare to be overturned so he’ll have that executive power stripped away. If it’s not, I’ll reassess. No one’s saying an Obama presidency for 4 more years would be a pleasant thing. Certainly the EPA won’t get any less onerous. This is about saying the 8-year outlook isn’t good if Romney gets in there no matter what happens. We need structural reforms on entitlements, taxes and the bureaucracy and Romney is a status quo guy who won’t get the job done and might make it worse. We need something to look forward to in 2016 and Romney winning doesn’t make that possible.
That’s what I read
-- Samuel Adams "It does not take a majority to prevail … but rather an irate, tireless minority, keen on setting brushfires of freedom in the minds of men."
Damn Skippy!
Damn Skippy!
And by the way a strong senate helps there too!
It’s sarcasm.
As sickening as it sounds, the best thing that can happen to conservatives in 2012 is that Romney is narrowly defeated by Obama while both the Senate and House go solid Republican.
In that case, I don’t see the Republicans standing up to 0bama any more then than they are doing now. Do you?
I was being sarcastic.
We’re in a hell of a predicament.
It’s sarcasm.
Yes, FRiend, it was.
We’re in one hell of a predicament.
I have seen headlines talking about a Spanish company counting our votes but that’s about all I know. Don’t even know if that’s true. Wouldn’t surprise me at this point.
It wouldn’t surprise me either.
Right now I see no one looking out for the United States.
Bigtime
I’m digging in.
I wont just charge down the hill into slaughter.
Live to fight another day, but tomorrow lets fight the dems instead of our own.
I’m digging in.
I wont just charge down the hill into slaughter.
Live to fight another day, but tomorrow lets fight the dems instead of our own.
Exactly!
I actually relish the fight ahead of us.
We must stand together with other like minded people. We cannot survive if we are divided.
It’s a delicate process
NCO CMT2 Standing by and ready to defend the constitution
Lame Duck = Nothing To Lose More Flexible = Traitor America = Over
Scorched earth
Obama Reelection Terminology.
Lame Duck = Nothing To Lose, More Flexible = Traitor, America = Over.
This sums up our position.
If Obama wins he has nothing to lose, he will go scorched earth on us.
If Romney wins, we hold his feet to the fire.
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