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Mitt Romney’s road to presidency this fall looks narrow on electoral map
The Washington Post ^ | April 30, 2012 | Chris Cillizza

Posted on 04/30/2012 9:13:27 PM PDT by Clintonfatigued

Bush’s two successful races, and the map on which he built them, are quite instructive when trying to understand Romney’s narrow margin for error this fall.

In 2000, Bush won 271 electoral votes — one more than he needed to claim the presidency. In eking out that victory, Bush not only carried the South and Plains states with a near sweep but also claimed wins in swing states such as Nevada, Colorado, Missouri and the major electoral-vote prizes of Ohio and Florida.

If Romney was able to duplicate Bush’s 2000 map, he would take 285 electoral votes — thanks to redistricting gains over the past decade.

But to do so, Romney would need not only to win the five swing states mentioned above — with the exception of Missouri, all of them are considered tossups (at worst) for the president at the moment — but also hang on to states such as North Carolina and Virginia where Bush cruised 12 years ago. (Obama carried both states in

___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Now, the good(ish) news for Romney is that if he has a low ceiling, he also has a relatively high floor.

Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) won 173 electoral votes in 2008. If Romney carried those same 22 states under the 2012 map, he would win 180 electoral votes.

Add Indiana, which McCain lost but which will almost certainly go for Romney in 2012, and the former Massachusetts governor’s electoral floor sits at 191.

Given the narrowness of his electoral map window, the key for Romney this fall is to win in places that Bush, McCain and other Republican nominees over the past two decades have struggled to make inroads. No Republican has carried Pennsylvania (20 electoral votes), Michigan (16) or Wisconsin (10) in any of the past five elections, for example.

(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonpost.com ...


TOPICS: Editorial; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: road2ridicule
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1 posted on 04/30/2012 9:13:33 PM PDT by Clintonfatigued
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To: Clintonfatigued

Let’s just ask George Soros since he’s the one who is picking these guys and calling the win.


2 posted on 04/30/2012 9:18:44 PM PDT by TigersEye (Life is about choices. Your choices. Make good ones.)
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To: Clintonfatigued

Watch Wisconsin implode on the unionthugLiberal camp.
They went after the Good Gov who want to save schools and local town from having to live under restrictive union rules, and the Big union power borkers went ballistic. So far, $1 billion or more was waved in wisconsin and hte union leaders can abide that. So they are going after Gov Walker.

Liberals twerps like this will have their heads explode when Gov Walker survives the odious union-driven recall election, and uses his victory to win the Senate seat - former Gov Tommmy Thompson will win over the lesbian liberal Baldwin ... AND deny 10 electoral votes ffrom Obama, giving Romney 10 more EVs to pad his november victory.


3 posted on 04/30/2012 9:20:33 PM PDT by WOSG (Anyone But Obama)
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To: Clintonfatigued

1. The democrat cheating today may be worse than the cheating in 2000/2004. They didn’t have a marxist administration going after photo id laws the states have decided they want to ensure the voter voting is who they claim to be. Voter integrity.

2. People were more jazzed to vote for Bush than Romney.

3. Wisconsin is in play, will most likely go heavy Republican.


4 posted on 04/30/2012 9:23:05 PM PDT by Secret Agent Man (I can neither confirm or deny that; even if I could, I couldn't - it's classified.)
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To: TigersEye

Precisely, and long time no see.


5 posted on 04/30/2012 9:24:14 PM PDT by Psalm 144 (Obama's record is an open charnel pit. Romney's too, but under a whitened sepulchre.)
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To: TigersEye

Let’s just ask George Soros since he’s the one who is picking these guys and calling the win.


Isn’t a Soros owned company in Spain going to count our votes.....from Spain?


6 posted on 04/30/2012 9:29:04 PM PDT by unkus (Silence Is Consent)
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Reelection campaigns are about the incumbent not the challenges. Obama numbers are in the mid 40’s% disaster for an incumbent.


7 posted on 04/30/2012 9:30:36 PM PDT by Leto (Damn shame Sarah didn't run the Presidency was there for the taking)
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To: Leto

That’s the only reason Romney has a chance.

Obama is such an awful president...


8 posted on 04/30/2012 9:32:17 PM PDT by ltc8k6
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To: fieldmarshaldj; AuH2ORepublican; Impy; GOPsterinMA; randita; Sun; LdSentinal; ExTexasRedhead; ...

Here’s how it breaks down.

In 2008. Obama won the electoral vote by 365 to 173. If he replecated that win this year, it would be 357 to 181, due to the census. What will change?

Obama won a single electoral vote from Nebraska. Romney will get that back easily. Also, Obama very narrowly won Indiana, but has become highly unpopular there. That would give Romney 192 electoral votes. Obama will try to win Arizona, claiming that McCain won it only due to home state loyalty. That’s 11 votes at stake. If Indiana and Arizona switch alleagance, that gives Obama a 358 to 180 edge.

The states where it will be won are the northeastern New England, industrial Midwest, the south-central Atlantic Coast, and the western Rocky Mountains.

Out West, Nevada, Arizona, & New Mexico are being eyed. Obama won New Mexico easily and few expect him to lose it again. Arizona is still leaning Republican, though it’s closer than in 2008. That leaves Nevada. Obama won comfortably there in 2008, but it voted narrowly for Bush twice. No state is in worse economic condition, but demographic changes in Las Vegas have helped Democrats.

Virginia and North Carolina bear watching. North Carolina very narrowly went for Obama and seems to be tilting slightly for Romney. Virginia went for Obama by a larger-than-expected margin. Government workers make up a growing share of the voters, but the rest of the state has soured on him. It could go either way.

That leaves the industrial Midwest and upper Midwest to watch, stretching from Pennsylvania to Minnesota and Iowa. That is where the election will likely be decided. The Upper Midwest (Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan) were considered safely Democrat. But aside from Michigan, Obama ran only slightly ahead of his national average and Bush almost won those states in both elections. Even Michigan has to be disillusioned with Obama, given its abysmal economy.

New Hampshire and Maine went comfortably for Obama, but swung heavily Republican in 2010. Bush won New Hampshire in 2000 and nearly won it again in 2004. Maine tilts more to the left, but has a strong independent streak. Romney has residual name I.D. locally and may run ahead of party lines there.

Now, the indistrial Midwest. With Illinois safely for Obama and Indiana safely for Romney, that means that Pennsylvania and Ohio are the two most important states this year.


9 posted on 04/30/2012 9:33:06 PM PDT by Clintonfatigued (A liberal's compassion is limited to the size of other peoples' paychecks)
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To: Clintonfatigued
As sickening as it sounds, the best thing that can happen to conservatives in 2012 is that Romney is narrowly defeated by Obama while both the Senate and House go solid Republican.

That's all we've got at this point. And I'm thinking that the best way to make that happen is to have serious conservative 3rd party contender who brings out conservatives in droves.

Where are you, Mrs. Palin....?
10 posted on 04/30/2012 9:33:09 PM PDT by Antoninus (Sorry, gone rogue.)
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To: Clintonfatigued

Romney’s chances are ‘off the cliff’ with me.

I will NEVER vote for him. I said that in 2008 and I’ve been saying that all over again.

He’s a lying p.o.s.


11 posted on 04/30/2012 9:33:21 PM PDT by nicmarlo
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To: Clintonfatigued

Bush pissed in the voting pool during his second term..
Obama has left some floaters..

Romneys not good with the strainer and has no chlorine..
The BBQ was left filty and the pit bulls are “out”..

Could be...... a lot will leave the party..


12 posted on 04/30/2012 9:34:22 PM PDT by hosepipe (This propaganda has been edited to include some fully orbed hyperbole...)
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To: Clintonfatigued
Obama gains an advantage by campaigning in all 57 states.
13 posted on 04/30/2012 9:34:54 PM PDT by Dagnabitt (If I had a failed one-term President, he'd look like Obama.)
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To: Antoninus

“the best thing that can happen to conservatives in 2012 is that Romney is narrowly defeated by Obama while both the Senate and House go solid Republican.”

One thing you’re forgetting is the U.S. Supreme Court. There are four elderly judges who may leave during the next four years.


14 posted on 04/30/2012 9:35:09 PM PDT by Clintonfatigued (A liberal's compassion is limited to the size of other peoples' paychecks)
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To: Dagnabitt

haaaaaaaaa !! true dat


15 posted on 04/30/2012 9:37:09 PM PDT by nicmarlo
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To: Clintonfatigued
One thing you’re forgetting is the U.S. Supreme Court. There are four elderly judges who may leave during the next four years.

I'm not forgetting them at all. Show me some evidence that Mitt Romney has any intention of nominating a conservative to the Supreme Court. Start by examining the individuals he nominated to the Massachusetts Supreme Court.

The Supreme Court is lost to us the second Romney wins the nomination. Our only hope now is to find a way to limit their power legislatively.
16 posted on 04/30/2012 9:37:48 PM PDT by Antoninus (Sorry, gone rogue.)
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Comment #17 Removed by Moderator

To: Clintonfatigued

Why should they vote for Dem-Lite, when they can vote for the real thing?


18 posted on 04/30/2012 9:39:12 PM PDT by dfwgator (Don't wake up in a roadside ditch. Get rid of Romney.)
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To: Dagnabitt

He is campaigning in all 57 states and he dumped Biden for Osama!


19 posted on 04/30/2012 9:41:47 PM PDT by tallyhoe
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To: Clintonfatigued

Obama will not win NC and VA this time.


20 posted on 04/30/2012 9:43:46 PM PDT by KC_Conspirator
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To: unkus

I’ll write in Newt.


21 posted on 04/30/2012 9:45:49 PM PDT by nicmarlo
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To: unkus

Wow.

Someone on another thread said he’d never seen anyone post on FR that they planned to pull the lever for Barack Hussein Obama.

I noted that I hadn’t seen many such posts, but I had seen at least two.

Make that three now.

Curious times at FR.


22 posted on 04/30/2012 9:47:57 PM PDT by Dagnabitt (If I had a failed one-term President, he'd look like Obama.)
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To: Psalm 144

I see you around all the time but once you’ve posted there’s nothing left to say! LOL


23 posted on 04/30/2012 9:49:11 PM PDT by TigersEye (Life is about choices. Your choices. Make good ones.)
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To: Antoninus
Show me some evidence that Mitt Romney has any intention of nominating a conservative to the Supreme Court. Start by examining the individuals he nominated to the Massachusetts Supreme Court.

Exactly. Remember, he made excuses for the liberals he appointed as governor because there was a liberal majority in Mass. What's the dif when he's president then?

24 posted on 04/30/2012 9:50:25 PM PDT by nicmarlo
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To: unkus
Isn’t a Soros owned company in Spain going to count our votes.....from Spain?

I have seen headlines talking about a Spanish company counting our votes but that's about all I know. Don't even know if that's true. Wouldn't surprise me at this point.

25 posted on 04/30/2012 9:51:53 PM PDT by TigersEye (Life is about choices. Your choices. Make good ones.)
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To: Clintonfatigued
One thing you’re forgetting is the U.S. Supreme Court. There are four elderly judges who may leave during the next four years.

Well, yes it would have been better if the GOP had been able to find a reasonable candidate who could contest Obama, but since they didn't all we're left with is hoping that all those four hang tough - unless you expect president etch-a-sketch to not stab us all in the back with an O'Connor.

26 posted on 04/30/2012 9:52:24 PM PDT by eclecticEel (Life, Liberty, and the Pursuit of Happiness: 7/4/1776 - 3/21/2010)
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To: Dagnabitt

I could never bring myself to pull the lever for BamBam Barack but I do think we’ll be better off with gridlock and letting Obama burn out his 8 years than with Romney having another moderate Republican presidency that frustrates the base and leads to a full Democrat takeover, a la 1992 and 2006-2008. Obama’s hands are pretty well tied from doing what he wants to do with a bad economy and a Republican Congress. Chances are Romney would unwittingly set up a much more powerful liberal majority for 2016 if he wins, which would be very dangerous.


27 posted on 04/30/2012 9:53:05 PM PDT by JediJones (From the makers of Romney, Bloomberg/Schwarzenegger 2016. Because the GOP can never go too far left.)
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To: JediJones
Obama’s hands are pretty well tied from doing what he wants to do with a bad economy and a Republican Congress.

Have you been paying attention lately? The breaucracy has been running wild with the 'Executive Orders', and the 'Secretary May Decide' decisions.

Another four years of this crap, and we're cooked.

28 posted on 04/30/2012 9:59:24 PM PDT by Ditto (Nov 2, 2010 -- Partial cleaning accomplished. More trash to remove in 2012)
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To: Clintonfatigued

Plus, in 2010 Obama was dealt a terrible slap in the face. He has ignored the will of the people. It will get worse if he wins again: he will be a lame duck president and can do whatever he wants, especially with executive orders.


29 posted on 04/30/2012 10:02:01 PM PDT by Utah Girl (John 15:12, Matthew 5:44)
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To: AuH2ORepublican; fieldmarshaldj; Impy; BillyBoy; BlackElk; EternalVigilance

A POV-opposite-to-mine ping.


30 posted on 04/30/2012 10:06:27 PM PDT by Kenny Bunk (So, Scalia, Alito, Thomas, and Roberts can't figure out if Obama is a Natural Born Citizen?)
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To: Ditto

That’s still a far cry from being able to pass Obamacare, cap-and-trade, another stimulus, etc. I’m expecting Obamacare to be overturned so he’ll have that executive power stripped away. If it’s not, I’ll reassess. No one’s saying an Obama presidency for 4 more years would be a pleasant thing. Certainly the EPA won’t get any less onerous. This is about saying the 8-year outlook isn’t good if Romney gets in there no matter what happens. We need structural reforms on entitlements, taxes and the bureaucracy and Romney is a status quo guy who won’t get the job done and might make it worse. We need something to look forward to in 2016 and Romney winning doesn’t make that possible.


31 posted on 04/30/2012 10:19:52 PM PDT by JediJones (From the makers of Romney, Bloomberg/Schwarzenegger 2016. Because the GOP can never go too far left.)
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To: unkus

That’s what I read


32 posted on 04/30/2012 10:28:38 PM PDT by mylife (The Roar Of The Mases Could Be Farts)
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To: Kenny Bunk; Clintonfatigued
All we need is a plurality within enough states, and both socialist pro-choice democrats, Obama and Romney, lose.

"It does not take a majority to prevail … but rather an irate, tireless minority, keen on setting brushfires of freedom in the minds of men."

-- Samuel Adams


33 posted on 04/30/2012 10:31:43 PM PDT by EternalVigilance (A vote for a liberal doesn't advance conservatism, no matter how much you lie to yourself about it.)
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To: Clintonfatigued
One thing you’re forgetting is the U.S. Supreme Court

Damn Skippy!

34 posted on 04/30/2012 10:33:02 PM PDT by mylife (The Roar Of The Mases Could Be Farts)
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To: Clintonfatigued
One thing you’re forgetting is the U.S. Supreme Court

Damn Skippy!

And by the way a strong senate helps there too!

35 posted on 04/30/2012 10:34:05 PM PDT by mylife (The Roar Of The Mases Could Be Farts)
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To: Dagnabitt

It’s sarcasm.


36 posted on 04/30/2012 10:35:45 PM PDT by mylife (The Roar Of The Mases Could Be Farts)
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To: Antoninus

As sickening as it sounds, the best thing that can happen to conservatives in 2012 is that Romney is narrowly defeated by Obama while both the Senate and House go solid Republican.


In that case, I don’t see the Republicans standing up to 0bama any more then than they are doing now. Do you?


37 posted on 04/30/2012 10:39:13 PM PDT by unkus (Silence Is Consent)
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To: Dagnabitt

I was being sarcastic.

We’re in a hell of a predicament.


38 posted on 04/30/2012 10:44:10 PM PDT by unkus (Silence Is Consent)
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To: mylife

It’s sarcasm.


Yes, FRiend, it was.

We’re in one hell of a predicament.


39 posted on 04/30/2012 10:48:45 PM PDT by unkus (Silence Is Consent)
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To: TigersEye

I have seen headlines talking about a Spanish company counting our votes but that’s about all I know. Don’t even know if that’s true. Wouldn’t surprise me at this point.


It wouldn’t surprise me either.

Right now I see no one looking out for the United States.


40 posted on 04/30/2012 10:51:40 PM PDT by unkus (Silence Is Consent)
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To: unkus

Bigtime


41 posted on 04/30/2012 10:52:50 PM PDT by mylife (The Roar Of The Mases Could Be Farts)
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To: unkus

I’m digging in.

I wont just charge down the hill into slaughter.

Live to fight another day, but tomorrow lets fight the dems instead of our own.


42 posted on 04/30/2012 10:56:01 PM PDT by mylife (The Roar Of The Mases Could Be Farts)
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To: mylife

I’m digging in.

I wont just charge down the hill into slaughter.

Live to fight another day, but tomorrow lets fight the dems instead of our own.


Exactly!

I actually relish the fight ahead of us.

We must stand together with other like minded people. We cannot survive if we are divided.


43 posted on 04/30/2012 11:00:25 PM PDT by unkus (Silence Is Consent)
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To: unkus

It’s a delicate process


44 posted on 04/30/2012 11:01:44 PM PDT by mylife (The Roar Of The Mases Could Be Farts)
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To: Clintonfatigued
One thing you’re forgetting is the U.S. Supreme Court. There are four elderly judges who may leave during the next four years.

More than any other reason, that is why I am ABO in 2012. I do not want Anita Dunn & Van Jones nominated to SCOTUS. Or, more Sotomayor's and Kagan's.
45 posted on 04/30/2012 11:03:37 PM PDT by entropy12 (Winning is the only thing...coach Vince Lombardi. Losers in elections have zero power.)
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To: unkus

NCO CMT2 Standing by and ready to defend the constitution


46 posted on 04/30/2012 11:05:43 PM PDT by mylife (The Roar Of The Mases Could Be Farts)
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To: Utah Girl
Obama Reelection Terminology.

Lame Duck = Nothing To Lose More Flexible = Traitor America = Over

47 posted on 04/30/2012 11:08:41 PM PDT by Kickass Conservative (A day without Obama is like a day without a Tsunami.)
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To: Kickass Conservative

Scorched earth


48 posted on 04/30/2012 11:09:22 PM PDT by mylife (The Roar Of The Mases Could Be Farts)
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To: Kickass Conservative

Obama Reelection Terminology.
Lame Duck = Nothing To Lose, More Flexible = Traitor, America = Over.


49 posted on 04/30/2012 11:10:26 PM PDT by Kickass Conservative (A day without Obama is like a day without a Tsunami.)
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To: All

This sums up our position.
If Obama wins he has nothing to lose, he will go scorched earth on us.

If Romney wins, we hold his feet to the fire.


50 posted on 04/30/2012 11:11:56 PM PDT by mylife (The Roar Of The Mases Could Be Farts)
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