Skip to comments.Election 2012 Trial Heat: Obama vs. Romney (Romney now leading by one in tracking poll)
Posted on 05/01/2012 6:43:15 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
These are the results when registered voters are asked: "Suppose the presidential election were held today. If Barack Obama were the Democratic Party's candidate and Mitt Romney were the Republican Party's candidate, who would you vote for Barack Obama, the Democrat or Mitt Romney, the Republican?" Those who are undecided are further asked if they lean more toward Obama or Romney and their leanings are incorporated into the results. Each five-day rolling average is based on telephone interviews with approximately 2,200 registered voters; Margin of error is ±3 percentage points.
(Excerpt) Read more at hotair.com ...
This from the Washington Post:
A detailed analysis of Romneys various paths to the 270 electoral votes he would need to claim the presidency suggests he has a ceiling of somewhere right around 290 electoral votes.
While Romneys team would absolutely take a 290-electoral-vote victory, that means he has only 20 electoral votes to play with a paper-thin margin for error.
Romneys relatively low electoral-vote ceiling isnt unique to him. No Republican presidential nominee has received more than 300 electoral votes in more than two decades. (Vice President George H.W. Bush won 426 electoral votes in his 1988 victory over Massachusetts Gov. Michael Dukakis.)
By contrast, Bill Clinton in 1992 (370 electoral votes) and 1996 (379) as well as Obama in 2008 (365) soared well beyond the 300-electoral-vote marker.
Much of that is attributable to the fact that Democrats have near-certain wins in population (and, therefore, electoral-vote) behemoths such as California (55 electoral voters), New York (29) and Illinois (20).
Obama will have 260+ EVs in his hip pocket, packaged and guaranteed, before the first vote is tabulated.
Romney will get 270.
I like the trend here the more Obama lies to college kids this week the more his numbers go down....
|Poll||Date||Sample||Obama (D)||Romney (R)||Spread|
|RCP Average||4/11 - 4/29||--||47.3||44.2||Obama +3.1|
|Rasmussen Tracking||4/27 - 4/29||1500 LV||45||47||Romney +2|
|Gallup Tracking||4/24 - 4/29||2200 RV||46||47||Romney +1|
|FOX News||4/22 - 4/24||915 RV||46||46||Tie|
|National Journal||4/19 - 4/22||1004 A||47||39||Obama +8|
|NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl||4/13 - 4/17||RV||49||43||Obama +6|
|CBS News/NY Times||4/13 - 4/17||852 RV||46||46||Tie|
|Quinnipiac||4/11 - 4/17||2577 RV||46||42||Obama +4|
|CNN/Opinion Research||4/13 - 4/15||910 RV||52||43||Obama +9|
|PPP (D)||4/12 - 4/15||900 RV||49||46||Obama +3|
|Reuters/Ipsos||4/12 - 4/15||891 RV||47||43||Obama +4|
it’ll be close...and it will come down to a few, as it always does...the usual Ohio, Florida, Pennsylvania, etc.
Bad news for the the 100’s of FReepers who are pumping for an Øbama victory?
it is, perhaps, more nteworthy that obama is down by 2 in the Rasmussen tracking of lv’s.....
RE: President Obama makes unannounced visit to Afghanistan:
Unannounced? If he didn’t announce it, how did it become breaking news?
And How’s that gonna help him in the polls?
Bad news for the the 100s of FReepers who are pumping for an Øbama victory?”
The only way to prove you are a TRUE conservative is to work for an obama victory....
That Obama is polling so poorly against a guy who isn’t even the official candidate yet is not good news for Obama. This is now Romney’s race to lose. Basically, at this point all he has to do is not screw up. Please Mitt, no hookers, DUIs or showing up at a campaign in blackface.
Worse news for the GOP-E morons like yourself who think nominating a guy who is unpopular and who takes so many key GOP campaign issues off the table is such a great idea.
The variances in the Gallup polling are all within a normal MOE. Romney's approval rating is 34 percent, lower than Obama's. How the presumptive GOP isn't trouncing a president with such a back economy around his neck is indicative of how bad a choice Romney is.
But go ahead, bash the FReepers who point that out instead of the morons who wanted him so badly that they let him engage in scorched-earch politics to destroy any alternatives.
And this is before Romney drops a billion dollars of ads on Obama.
I wish Romney played a direct positive theme based on his business sense, law degree, family life and general maturity; and then had the SuperPAC’s dump on Obama’s record with no mercy.
This will be the first time in Obama’s life when his track record is inescapable.
Romney doesn't need such things to screw up. He only has to be himself.
And that's a large part of the problem. People largely just don't like the guy, even those willing to vote for him.
"11) GS Analyst Index declined to 52.1 in April from 58.1 in March consistent with other signs that growth has slowed. The Goldman Sachs Analyst Index (GSAI) dropped 6 points to 52.1 in April from 58.1 in March. The composition was also weak, consistent with other signs that growth has slowed (Chicago PMI, Empire State and Philadelphia Fed)."
You are correct as it will come down to some 7 or 8 states in which the election will be decided. National polling isn’t as important as state polling because we elect on a state bases.
Here is an electoral map that is interactive in which you can make projections as to the winners of each state and see the results in EC votes.
Even if you think this year will be different, the category of “registered voters” will not produce MORE actual voters for Obama.
If you are a registered voter who usually ends up NOT voting, but THIS year your gonna vote! What is it that will get you up off the couch, to put down that beer, to turn off the TV, and go vote?
1. Because you are so thrilled with the job Obama has done as president
2. You are so disgusted with the terrible job Obama has done as president.
“Registered voter” category will NOT develop into better numbers for Obama this year, they will translate into devastating numbers at the voting booth.
Unlike the GOP primary, Obama will be able to drop that right back on Romney. That was Mitt's only advantage in the primary - money to destroy any alternative to Mitt. Romney won't have it in the general. I don't think the geniuses in the GOP-E thought that far ahead when they stood back as Romney launched a scorched-earth campaign to compensate for his low levels of initial support.
The debates are basically going to be Obama saying ad nauseum, “You did the same thing, Mitt.”
The campaign is going to be one long dreary slog to the bottonm- with the least unpopular candidate after the mudfest emerging as the winner.
National polling isnt as important as state polling because we elect on a state bases”
You are absolutely correct.
That said...I think at somepoint, if for example, Romney were to be 3 points on top naitonally for an extended period, it seems that those national polls sort of “pull” the state polls in that driection over time. It is interesting to watch every 4 years, and I doubt this year will be any different....
The national polls are irrelevant....except indirectly and it seems in that way they gain relevance as fall approaches
As the trend manifests itself it will gather momentum and at some place along that trend line Obama will make a decision about whether to contrive an October Surprise. I have been warning since February or early March that we should not fear the Ides of March But Beware the Surprises of October (http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2854282/posts).
As the numbers trend against Obama it becomes increasingly likely that we will see a strike on Iran.
If Romney actually runs AGAINST Obama’s policies, spending, ‘forward’ scheme and the inevitable cliff it imposes, he might win.
If Romney runs on ‘Obama is a nice guy’, Romney loses just like McCain did.
Romney needs to step up and show a definitive and distinct difference between him and his direction for the Nation as opposed to Obama’s.
Otherwise, Obama will eek out a 2nd term.
That depends. If SCOTUS strikes down Obamacare, Romney will have a huge card up his sleeve in that he'll always be able to answer, "at least what I did was constitutional" whenever the subject gets brought up.
If SCOTUS doesn't strike down Obamacare, yes, this charge becomes more difficult to defend against.
Being ahead doesn’t matter if there is no path to 270 (see Al Gore)...he has got to win FLA, NC, OHIO, VA
Bull. A handful of Freepers may stay home or vote for Virgil Goode but all polling currently indicates that Romney is slowly winning over conservative voters, many of whom supported him (albeit begrudgingly) in their state primaries. They'll show up to vote for him.
I believe the correct term would be "deeply saddened."
Hundreds? A couple dozen tops. They just show up on every thread and post the same talking points.
The overwhelming majority of Freepers are ABO. It's just they've been badgered into silence.
A poll of LIKELY voters is more accurate than a poll of registered voters.
This is a spin poll, notice its “registered voters’ not “likely voters”. The spin doctors want to show nobama just barely behind to juice up sympathy. If they showed the butthead was 15% down, then his friends would be so down they would not bother to vote.
Propaganda does not sleep, thrust damn little you read or hear from those with a purpose.
Registered voters polling is worthless.