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Pentagon Encircles Iran: Victory Would Take 3 Weeks
Russia Today ^ | May 2, 2012

Posted on 05/02/2012 7:50:41 AM PDT by Strategy

As the US beefs up its military presence in the Persian Gulf region, Pentagon strategists estimate that they would need less than a month to defeat Iranian forces should a military conflict take place.

US Central Command (CENTCOM) believes it can destroy or significantly degrade Iran's conventional armed forces in about three weeks using air and sea strikes, a defense source told The Washington Post.

"We plan for any eventuality we can and provide options to the president," Army Lt. Col. T.G. Taylor, a spokesman at CENTCOM told the newspaper. "We take our guidance from the secretary of defense and from our civilian bosses in [Washington] DC. So any kind of guidance they give us, that's what we go off of [sic]."

(Excerpt) Read more at rt.com ...


TOPICS: Foreign Affairs; Front Page News; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: 2012; campaign; dontfallforit; election2012; iran; islam; israel; middleeast; obamacampaign; wagthedog; wartalk
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To: robowombat
This Russian paper is the sort that for a few dollars anyone can get a ‘news story’ published.

The article is actually copied, without attribution, word-for-word, from the Washington Times.

51 posted on 05/02/2012 9:25:34 AM PDT by Strategerist
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To: Nip

The IRGC and Basij make the Saddam Fedayeen, Al Queda in Iraq, and the Taliban combined look like a joke.

Anyway, the goal, of course, is neither invasion or regime change. It’s the elimination of Iran’s ability to project power - the Air Force, ballistic missile forces, the regular Navy, and the IRGC Navy.


52 posted on 05/02/2012 9:31:23 AM PDT by Strategerist
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To: GonzoGOP

Good post. Thanks.


53 posted on 05/02/2012 9:31:23 AM PDT by justice14 ("stand up defend or lay down and die")
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To: ScottinVA

I agree, there’s a hell of a lot more in the way of geopolitical considerations with Iran than there was with Iraq (at least as it relates to actually powerful countries). Afghanistan is a ridiculous balancing act, but I can’t imagine having to deal with powerhouses like Russia and China getting involved.

Iran ain’t worth it.


54 posted on 05/02/2012 9:32:34 AM PDT by Future Snake Eater (CrossFit.com)
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To: Strategy

could we just torch ALL irans oil wells so they lose the only thing they have to offer?


55 posted on 05/02/2012 9:37:26 AM PDT by Joe Boucher ((FUBO) Hey Mitt, F-you too pal)
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To: Strategy
NO WAR FOR OIL!

56 posted on 05/02/2012 9:38:54 AM PDT by unixfox (Abolish Slavery, Repeal The 16th Amendment!)
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To: Strategy

Define “win”.

We still haven’t “Won” Iraq. Problem is we don’t want to fight like WWII.

We firebombed civilian cities and turned areas into smoking rubble. We broke the will of the people long before we broke their armies.


57 posted on 05/02/2012 9:39:08 AM PDT by redgolum ("God is dead" -- Nietzsche. "Nietzsche is dead" -- God.)
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To: GonzoGOP
We totally remade Japanese civilization. Before the bombs dropped, the Emperor was a god. Now he is a celebrity.

We restored German civilization, somewhat. Their recent actions make me wonder just how much. The Germans still want a United States of Europe, and have it now with the EU.

58 posted on 05/02/2012 9:42:22 AM PDT by redgolum ("God is dead" -- Nietzsche. "Nietzsche is dead" -- God.)
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To: Strategy

Based on recent past experience about 10+ years is a reasonable estimate before we would pull out.
If we looked to WWII, who knows. A couple of months. The DOD has never won a war.


59 posted on 05/02/2012 9:44:10 AM PDT by Citizen Tom Paine (An old sailor sends)
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To: redgolum

-—Problem is we don’t want to fight like WWII.
We firebombed civilian cities and turned areas into smoking rubble. We broke the will of the people long before we broke their armies.-—

It amazes me that most Americans are, at the very least, indifferent to this shameful horror. The ends don’t justify the means.

Modern precision strikes are far superior.


60 posted on 05/02/2012 9:45:36 AM PDT by St_Thomas_Aquinas (Viva Christo Rey!)
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To: nathanbedford
Consider Obama's recent ploys: he spikes the football on the anniversary of Obama's assassination;

Whoops!

Great vanity, BTW, thanks for the link--I'd missed it the first time. Now I'm fully dreading October...

61 posted on 05/02/2012 9:47:32 AM PDT by Future Snake Eater (CrossFit.com)
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To: Strategerist

That is fascinating but not unusual for Russian papers with their very flexible standards for intellectual property. Can you post the URL? I seem to remember some WT headline about this. The number of similar stories mushrooming in the vernacular press in the middle east and Pakistan does make me think there is some sort of black propaganda operation underway. It is cheap and is a common psychological warfare ploy.


62 posted on 05/02/2012 9:52:30 AM PDT by robowombat
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To: redgolum
We totally remade Japanese civilization. Before the bombs dropped, the Emperor was a god. Now he is a celebrity.

Not as much as you think. Read up on the concept of a Shogun. Because Douglas MacArthur sure as heck did. He even made sure to to stage the Emperor coming to his headquarters (as opposed to him going to the imperial palace) so as to resemble the old Japanese tradition of the Shogunate. He shaped Japanese culture and traditions into a Western mold, but they remained distinctly Japanese. Before the war Japan was an ethnically and culturally homogeneous well ordered society. After MacArthur got done with it it was a ethnically and culturally homogeneous well ordered society.

Americans tend to get hung up on visible details, but this is a big picture foundation issue. Japan existed before we got there. We did not have to create a sense of "Japanese" identity. The Japanese knew who they were. We just had to rearrange the deck chairs so that instead of being run by the military with the Emperor as a puppet it was being run by big business conglomerates with the emperor as a puppet. Look at the organization of Japan under the oligarchy that existed between the Meiji Restoration and the rise of the military after the Russo Japanese war.
63 posted on 05/02/2012 10:05:00 AM PDT by GonzoGOP (There are millions of paranoid people in the world and they are all out to get me.)
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To: Strategy

Seems to me that total victory and peace can be achieved in 30 minutes or less (or your bomb is free). Or whatever the flight time from an SSBN to their most inland city would be.


64 posted on 05/02/2012 10:32:22 AM PDT by Drill Thrawl (The United States of America, a banana republic since 1913)
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To: Strategy

The first battle of Manasses pretty
much killed the “over in three weeks” meme.


65 posted on 05/02/2012 10:40:57 AM PDT by TADSLOS (Conservatism is not a party slogan, but a mindset guided by core values and walking the walk.)
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To: Strategy

We’ve seen this movie already.

McArthur swore the Chinese Army would stay put if the US continued to push the Norks back against the Chinese border.

They didn’t.

If we invade Iran, the Russians will too. Even if they don’t feel they have to.


66 posted on 05/02/2012 10:44:26 AM PDT by RinaseaofDs (Does beheading qualify as 'breaking my back', in the Jeffersonian sense of the expression?)
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To: headstamp 2

And about 100 years to “nation build”.


Seriously! That term should be taken out of our lexicon entirely. Go in, kick ass, come home and tell them if they get uppity again, we’ll be back!


67 posted on 05/02/2012 10:47:25 AM PDT by Personal Responsibility (Obama 2012: Dozens of MSNBC viewers can't be wrong!)
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To: St_Thomas_Aquinas
It was a horror. I have met those who lived through it.

But it worked. How many men on both sides would have died if we invaded Japan? How long would the war have lasted if we hadn't bombed Germany? In that war, the thinking was “You started this, and we will kill every one of you unless you stop NOW!”

I have had the privilege to speak with some of the officers who were involved in the bombing campaign, and whole point was to kill and demilitarize civilians. After action reports suggest the demoralization failed completely (Read some of David Grossman’s work), but they did slow production and transportation of goods. It was a terror tactic. One that honestly didn't have the results that were expected.

Precision strikes are not as great as we are led to believe. You have know what and exactly where you target. Even then, if the target moves it gets away. The myth of surgical strikes is just that. A myth.

Sadly, the only way we could “win” Iran is kill enough of them that they stop. That is not something modern people like to think about, but it is how war was fought in the past. The theory of a quick, clean, war doesn't work if the other side is motivated to keep fighting in the rubble. We learned this in Iraq and Afghanistan. As many empires have learned before. If we are not willing to do that, then we need to seriously ask “Is this war something we need to do at all?”

Iran is not a direct threat to us. And starting a war because they might have nukes and be able to hit Israel is problematic at best. Preemptive wars are not very justifiable.

68 posted on 05/02/2012 10:54:10 AM PDT by redgolum ("God is dead" -- Nietzsche. "Nietzsche is dead" -- God.)
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To: Buckeye McFrog

It’s what comes next that’s the sticky wicket.


Break stuff, leave with “get out of line again and we’ll be back and REALLY pissed off” and then LEAVE.

The goal is not conquest or even peace. The goal is to get them to stop stirring up trouble on the world stage. Removing their capability to do that is realtively simple. As usual, the liberal BS about “what comes after” causes problems. The answer is: Ignore it entirely. Let them figure it out - or not.

They will never like us. They can however be taught to respect us.


69 posted on 05/02/2012 10:56:09 AM PDT by Personal Responsibility (Obama 2012: Dozens of MSNBC viewers can't be wrong!)
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To: sickoflibs

Nation building over there is hopeless. Money won’t solve the history of the people.


70 posted on 05/02/2012 10:56:42 AM PDT by stephenjohnbanker (God, family, country, mom, apple pie, the girl next door and a Ford F250 to pull my boat.)
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To: sickoflibs

Nation building over there is hopeless. Money won’t solve the history of the people.


71 posted on 05/02/2012 10:56:57 AM PDT by stephenjohnbanker (God, family, country, mom, apple pie, the girl next door and a Ford F250 to pull my boat.)
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To: nathanbedford

If a war is needed, Obama will start the war.


72 posted on 05/02/2012 11:01:23 AM PDT by stephenjohnbanker (God, family, country, mom, apple pie, the girl next door and a Ford F250 to pull my boat.)
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To: GonzoGOP
And yet, it was changed. I used to work for a Japanese company, where some of the older executives grew up in WWII. They all said that Japan is not the same. For one thing, there is a parliamentary system in place. It is hard for use to imagine, but such a thing is very, very, alien to their culture.

Are some of the trappings the same? Yes. That is why it worked. We have a lot of the trappings of Rome and Greece, but our culture is more along the lines of the germanic tribes that took over Rome. Look deeper than the outward appearances.

73 posted on 05/02/2012 11:02:22 AM PDT by redgolum ("God is dead" -- Nietzsche. "Nietzsche is dead" -- God.)
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To: Strategy
I can't imagine any true Pentagon bureaucrat bragging that we would have a victory over Iran in 3 weeks. They have never made a statement like that before, even in situations where everyone knew that the US forces would overwhelm the opposition. Remember how “bloody” the Iraq wars were supposed to be? Remember the expectations that we were going to have to accept 10,000 or 15,000 casualties or perhaps even more? This is the Obama Administration making the statement, yet again in a very amateur and potentially dangerous way.
74 posted on 05/02/2012 1:54:12 PM PDT by Opinionated Blowhard ("When the people find they can vote themselves money, that will herald the end of the republic.")
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To: Road Glide
"The only way to “rebuild” Islamic nations — after first defeating them militarily — is to make the -removal- of Islam from those nations priority one. Just as we “de-Nazified” Germany after World War II, if the West has any hope for survival in the current worldwide struggle, we must de-Islamicize Moslem nations, once and for all. Otherwise, the West will lose."

Finally, someone else who can see a winning stratergy.

75 posted on 05/02/2012 3:01:58 PM PDT by Paladin2
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To: Strategy

Note that victory is not given a clear definition. I presume that they mean simply making sure that their military is torn down enough so that they could not attempt to make and successfully utilize nukes against anyone. To even repeat the Iraq 2003 invasion, well, I fail to see how that would take 3 weeks. Just for starters, we would be facing a much larger nation that would be much more united and cohesive if they were attacked. The goal should be a combination of regime change along with any necessary strikes against the military, but without planning a military invasion. Let’s not fool ourselves, the days of launching full scale invasions, one at a time, against any nation deemed a threat are over.


76 posted on 05/02/2012 4:20:58 PM PDT by emax
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To: ScottinVA
Their backers in China and Russia would never stand for our attacking them anyway

Not if our gutless POS president agrees to cut our nuclear stockpile by 50% if the Russians stay out of Iran.
77 posted on 05/02/2012 4:38:36 PM PDT by snowrip (Liberal? You are a socialist idiot with no rational argument.)
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To: FreeAtlanta

You’re right. Last time we really won was WWII. I’d as soon have a different CIC before we get involved in anything. His “rules of engagement” would do nothing for our troops except get a lot of them killed.


78 posted on 05/02/2012 5:03:08 PM PDT by Quickgun (Second Amendment. The only one you can put your hands on.)
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To: Strategy

Would take all of about an hour were you to do it properly, and that includes flight-time. In fact, all our boys could stay home for some R&R and still get the job done.


79 posted on 05/02/2012 5:21:22 PM PDT by TheZMan (Obama is without a doubt the worst President ever elected to these United States)
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To: robowombat

Exactly, consider the source. In this case the source is Russia Today, a source often cited by the kook conspiracy crowd, the anti-Semitic crowd, lefties, etc. There’s no reason to give this story the slightest bit of credibilty. (it’s almost like listening to MSNBC.....)

At any rate, others are right, the USA has not won a war for 50 years because they stopped playing by effective rules and started the “feel good” affluent sensitive new-age-guy years. If the US used WWII rules the war against Iran would be over in a week. And we would own them as a territory following unconditional surrender.

As it is, it is only the common fiction from Russia Today.


80 posted on 05/02/2012 5:37:05 PM PDT by wrencher
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To: Strategy

“Should”, “Would”, “Could”, “maybe”, “probably”, “possibly”.. etc, etc, etc... have been hearing it for ages.. Not Happening!

Don’t we know, they are still “tightening sanctions”.


81 posted on 05/02/2012 5:43:54 PM PDT by odds
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To: TomGuy
"Peace would take a decade generation or more."
82 posted on 05/02/2012 5:56:03 PM PDT by Rebelbase
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To: Mr. Jeeves

“it will probably happen before the election”

I predict the same.


83 posted on 05/02/2012 6:10:13 PM PDT by Jet Jaguar
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To: varon
...we have the capacity to destroy but lack the expertise will to win!
84 posted on 05/02/2012 7:41:39 PM PDT by Nervous Tick (Trust in God, but row away from the rocks!)
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To: Nervous Tick
but lack the ....will to win!

Absolutely correct.

In fact, most of what I've been hearing for over 30 yrs, latest during GWB administration, was why it shouldn't & can't be done, instead of how it should be done & why it can be done.

Some idiots continued to encourage Iranians to protest during 2009 Iranian elections, whilst knowing that they'd be killed, and there'd be a lack of international support for them. End result, numerous people were killed and the protests went nowhere.

Obi then sent a lovey dovey message to Iranian People, several months later, for their New Year "Norooz", telling them he is "working on it". What a hypocrite!

85 posted on 05/02/2012 8:08:49 PM PDT by odds
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Obama bows down to Saudi King | American Thinker | April 02, 2009 | Clarice Feldman | Posted on 04/02/2009 8:19:47 AM PDT by rdb3
Obama bows down to Saudi King | American Thinker | April 02, 2009 | Clarice Feldman | Posted on 04/02/2009 8:19:47 AM PDT by rdb3

86 posted on 05/02/2012 11:41:27 PM PDT by SunkenCiv (FReepathon 2Q time -- https://secure.freerepublic.com/donate/)
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To: AdmSmith; AnonymousConservative; Berosus; bigheadfred; Bockscar; ColdOne; Convert from ECUSA; ...

Thanks Strategy.


87 posted on 05/02/2012 11:41:43 PM PDT by SunkenCiv (FReepathon 2Q time -- https://secure.freerepublic.com/donate/)
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To: SunkenCiv

Every time I look at those pics of Obi bowing to the Saudi King, it reminds me of the Arab tradition of slavery (Servitude) - so Common with their black “servants”, anyhow.

Obi’s African (Keynan?) father would have been one such slave or, worse, servant. Perhaps proud of it.

Obi should have been more proud had he made it to the top job in an Arab land, hey.. even an African one would’ve done. Alas, he had no other choice. Especially with his liking for “Pink”.

“Gholam-Hussein” (Servant of Hussein), as the Saudi Arabs did put it for their “black” and non-black slaves (servants), once upon a time at least, seems only Very appropriate, in Obi’s case.


88 posted on 05/03/2012 2:58:36 AM PDT by odds
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To: odds

really meant Kenyan, lol


89 posted on 05/03/2012 3:03:42 AM PDT by odds
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To: nathanbedford

You’re exactly right. Why is this being floated out there? To re elect Obama. I wouldn’t put it past the SOB to start a war with IRan...just to get reelected....

On the other hand, I for one think Obama is one of the bravest presidents we’ve ever had. When I think of the courage it took, to take down Bin Laden...and those 40 LOOOOOOnnng minutes... I realize that he’s the man.

I seriously compare Obama to people like Stonewall Jackson, Jeb Stuart and Custer at Manassas. He might be...no...he is braver than even Patton himself.


90 posted on 05/03/2012 3:23:00 AM PDT by nikos1121
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To: nikos1121
I wouldn’t put it past the SOB to start a war with IRan...just to get reelected....

How about sending a SEAL team or two, whatever, to kill off those who matter in Iran? At least it'd be for real, compared to OBL stuff.

If the Iranian Regime was that much of a pest, why has that sorta thing not been done for more than 30 years?!

While am on this subject, hope that SOB does start a war w/ Iran. Like GWB said "bring it on".

Then again, can Obi Hussein get reelected after his 8 yr abomination is up? 'course not. So, like Carter.. another tragic legacy, this time on BHO's watch.

Lets hope if he does start a war with the mullahs regime in Iran. But then he should be held FULLY ACCOUNTABLE FOR THE RESULTS OF IT - 'course he can't be.

A problem is that he won't be able to see it thru. These things take longer than 4 or 8 yrs. By then the US will have another President and a different (interim) policy, so the saga will continue.

Unfortunately, for the US, it is a short term cycle that keeps going round and round, and it often backfires. The US political system, precisely for what it is, is not geared towards long term "foreign policies" - many stops & starts, detrimental all around..

Unlike with OBL fantasy, Obama will only get ONE CHANCE with the Iranian Regime. My bet is he ain't game. But, seriously, let's see it happen.

91 posted on 05/03/2012 3:55:07 AM PDT by odds
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To: GonzoGOP
Nation wrecking on the other hand is quite simple in theory and easy in execution.

And it's good for elections...
92 posted on 05/03/2012 4:15:43 PM PDT by af_vet_rr
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To: St_Thomas_Aquinas
It amazes me that most Americans are, at the very least, indifferent to this shameful horror. The ends don’t justify the means.

Modern precision strikes are far superior.


Modern precision strikes are far superior, but "precision" is not a word one associates with World War II aerial bombing. Believe me, if they could have engaged in true precision bombing, they would have, it would have ended the war a lot sooner.
93 posted on 05/03/2012 4:34:09 PM PDT by af_vet_rr
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To: stephenjohnbanker
If a war is needed, Obama will start the war.

Don't you mean "If a war is needed by Obama's campaign, Obama will start the war."
94 posted on 05/03/2012 4:38:22 PM PDT by af_vet_rr
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To: af_vet_rr

Yes...I blew that : )


95 posted on 05/03/2012 5:07:57 PM PDT by stephenjohnbanker (God, family, country, mom, apple pie, the girl next door and a Ford F250 to pull my boat.)
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To: af_vet_rr

-—Modern precision strikes are far superior, but “precision” is not a word one associates with World War II aerial bombing.-—

I realize that. My English family members experienced it 8-)

But that is what makes it wrong —indiscriminately bombing civilians.


96 posted on 05/04/2012 6:30:28 AM PDT by St_Thomas_Aquinas (Viva Christo Rey!)
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