Posted on 05/03/2012 9:24:35 AM PDT by xzins
Leans Obama
Maine (4)
Michigan (16)
Minnesota (10)
Nevada (6)
New Jersey (14)
New Mexico (5)
Oregon (7)
Pennsylvania (20)
Wisconsin (10)
Toss Up
Arizona (11)
Colorado (9)
Florida (29)
Iowa (6)
Missouri (10)
New Hampshire (4)
North Carolina (15)
Ohio (18)
Virginia (13)
Leans Romney
Georgia (16)
Indiana (11)
Montana (3)
South Carolina (9)
(Excerpt) Read more at realclearpolitics.com ...
B ig
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The GOP-e's forcefed candidate is losing very badly electorally. Obama's 253 is up from 243 last week so another state or two is now polling in Obama's column.
He needs just 17 more electoral votes to win out of 110 available, AND Rasmussen reports that Obama is LEADING in Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, and Virginia.
Thanks for the circular firing squad GOP-e.
How do we pull this out of the fire? If EVERYONE were to turn on Romney prior to the convention. IF he were polling in the low 30's against Obama by that time, then that convention would have to hari-kari or SWITCH.
It might just switch.
“If EVERYONE were to turn on Romney prior to the convention.”
The opportunity to “turn on Romney” was the Republican primaries.
So where does Rove, The Bastard, think he’s going to get Romney’s electoral votes from?
The GOP never intended to take the white house because they don’t have the stones to face the angry mob. Let’s just hope Obama doesn’t decide to be president for life because the GOP would let him.
Who do we nominate instead - give me a logically choice of someone rather than someone “other than Romney” or someone who has said “no” to a presidential run ?
In the primaries 60%+ voted against Romney, and most of them still feel that way.
So, in an “undeluded by massive advertising state of mind” they can simply not support him and tell that to everyone.
That will easily get his polling numbers against Obama down in the 30’s and the GOP will suicide or change horses.
out’n’ his a$$???
When Romney gets trounced in a landslide, the inside the beltway GOP elites (i.e., Coulter and Rove) will blame the Tea Party, Santorum, Gingrich, Paul, Perry, Bachmann, Palin, Bush — everyone but themselves for the rout. Stupid is as stupid does. Welcome to four more years if Obama.
In Michigan 57 of our 83 counties voted for Santorum and Romney won the Obama stronghold that he can’t possibly win in November.
Romney ran for the nomination like a liberal.
How do we pull this out of the fire?
Don’t worry. This polling usally oversamples democrats. I think they do this to get Republicans to just give up and accept their fate. Not gonna work. They do this with everything they say “If you repeat the same lie over and over, people eventually see it as the truth”. Problem is, they cannot control the results of the election (most of the time) so you get the other side to no-show. That is all this is....trying to make you believe he will win. FYI even with the weighted polling, he cannot even hit 50%. That is disaster for him. Don’t fall for it!
Look at the polls, Wherever Obama is below 50%, which is almost ALL THE STATES THAT ARE LEANING O and anywhere he is behind are IN THE ROMNEY COLLUMN.
Nobody who is undecided is going to break for Obama. It is a historical FACT! He is in big trouble. and he knows it!
Even in the toss up states, Obama is at least 5 points below 50%! They are almost certain losers for Obama. He is a known quantity 100% name recognition and everyone alive with access to sight and sound has scene or heard him in the last 24 hours.
Short of massive voter fraud he is toast! Obama will lose!
I smell roasting RINO. Obama has had more fund raisers than the past 5 presidents combined. He has been in full campaign mode for over a year. He acts more desperate every day. He panders to his base daily. He is far behind where he was in 2008 and he was no landslide then. In fact he was loosing until the McLame suspended his campaign to tell us that Obama was right about everything.
Sure this poll of polls, weighted to the far left, is cute, but the likelihood that is meaningful is farfetched. The importance of this article is that the RNC is not getting near the money they want and they can’t understand why we don’t love RINO’s.
I would have voted for Newt.....
Do you take seriously any analysis that has as tossup states:
Arizona won by the GOP in the last 3 elections.
Colorado won by G.W. Bush twice.
Florida won by G.W Bush twice.
Iowa won by G.W. Bush in 2004.
Missouri won by G.W. Bush twice
New Hampshire won by G.W.Bush in 2004.
North Carolina won by G.W. Bush twice.
Ohio won by G.W. Bush twice.
Virginia won by G.W. Bush twice.
Now with everything going his way Obama won all these states in 2008 but other than Colorado all swung strongly back to the GOP.
Tough luck GOP, he`s YOUR leftist North East RINO, YOU guys pull him over the finish line.
Everybody who isn’t comatose also knows Romney. He is not a newbie, and the name has been around for forever.
And the major advocate of the “polling under 50% undecideds” position is Dick Morris. Dick Morris is an idiot. And, he’s a Trogan Horse.
Actually I didn’t take a closer look.
Thanks for the highlites.
I agree with you, but if that were to happen, the streets would become rivers of blood.
Do you take seriously any analysis that has as tossup states:
Arizona won by the GOP in the last 3 elections.
Colorado won by G.W. Bush twice.
Florida won by G.W Bush twice.
Iowa won by G.W. Bush in 2004.
Missouri won by G.W. Bush twice
New Hampshire won by G.W.Bush in 2004.
North Carolina won by G.W. Bush twice.
Ohio won by G.W. Bush twice.
Virginia won by G.W. Bush twice.
Now with everything going his way Obama won all these states in 2008 but other than Colorado all swung strongly back to the GOP.
____________________________
Exactly. It’s only May, polls like this are bogus and irrelevant at this time.
Obama 253
Romney 170
The “lean Obama” and “lean Romney” states likely will stay there (no data shows otherwise). I predict the “undecideds” will go as follows:
Obama:
Colorado (9)
Iowa (6)
New Hampshire (4)
Ohio (18)
Florida (29)
Romney:
Arizona (11)
Missouri (10)
North Carolina (15)
Virginia (13)
Obama total: 319
Romney total: 219
Better than McCain’s 2008 numbers, but still well short.
One wave of the magic "0bama Munny" wand will entrance many of those "undecideds."
It’s not for nothing GOP is called The Stupid Party.
No doubt about it. Obama will lose big time. Any poll taken now is totally useless. Romney is going to come like gangbusters, once he gets his VP choice and voters really start pay attention after Labor Day. Obama is in deep trouble, and...he knows it. He is throwing everything at the wall, hoping some of it will stick. Going to Afghanistan was the joke of the century.
Take my word for it, any POTUS candidate that runs at or below 50% is in deep trouble, especially when the gent running against him is not widely known as of yet. My predication, regardless of the Obama media bias, is that Obama will carry between on eight to twelve states. And....the Democrat Party will suffers losses that they will not recover from for at least twenty years.
My predictions for 2010 were the Pubbies would win between 60-70 seats. the actual turnover was eighty-seven, with 63 new members.
See tag line.
Probably not.
Anubody that will be swayed by an Obama money wand is already in his camp.
It may cause more of them to come out to vote, which isn’t good either.
Florida is NOT a tossup. o bama stands ZER0 chance in Florida.
Obama has yet to get the treatment that Romney gave to Santorum and Gingrich. If nothing else it is easy to find things to beat Obama with. 17 vacations, strange back ground, and aloofness coupled with an economy that is in the tank and sinking is a death sentence for an incumbent president.
Also remember, Obama has told the House and Senate members that he & the party will NOT be giving them any monetary help for their campaign. This is a first ever for any political party and shows how desperate Obama is!
That time has passed. This is what primaries are for and Willard the chameleon won more votes and more delegates than any other candidate. I wish we all could have agreed on an actual conservative, but too many people either refused to consider a consensus candidate or were/are still hopelessly waiting on Palin.
then that convention would have to hari-kari or SWITCH.
Please stop with the fantasies. I know some people don't want to accept it, but it really is time to face reality. There is no mechanism to switch candidates when Romney will have all the delegates he needs to be the official nominee.
Thanks for the circular firing squad GOP-e.
The vast majority of conservative leaders and conservative voters detest Obama and are going to vote for the GOP nominee. You are part of a small minority that claim to refuse. Isn't is really you that is keeping the circular firing squad going?
Obama will lose due to his approval numbers who the pubs run is almost irrelevant. 70% of the people in todays quinnipiac poll (Oh, Pa & Fl) feel we are in a recession. Obama loses period the polls are bs, oversampling dems based on 2008 exit poll data and not the 2010 data.
Carter was way ahead of Reagan for most of 1980.
Let’s just hope Obama doesn’t decide to be president for life because the GOP would let him.
Yep.
This time the revolution will look like the French Revolution.
I like your analysis.
ALL REELECTIONS ARE ABOUT THE INCUMBENT! And Obama is a stinker polling well below 50% in practically every state.
Colorado: Clinton, Dole, Bush, Bush, Obama (2/5th Dem)
Florida: Bush, Clinton, Bush, Bush, Obama (2/5 Dem)
Iowa: Clinton, Clinton, Gore, Bush, Obama (4/5 Dem)
Missouri: Clinton, Clinton, Bush, Bush, McCain (2/5 Dem)
New Hampshire: Clinton, Clinton, Bush, Kerry, Obama (4/5 Dem)
North Carolina: Bush, Dole, Bush, Bush, Obama (1/5 Dem)
Ohio: Clinton, Clinton, Bush, Bush, Obama (3/5 Dem)
Virginia: Bush, Dole, Bush, Bush, Obama (1/5 Dem)
1/5 Dem: NCarolina, Virginia,
2/5 Dem: Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Missouri
3/5 Dem: Ohio
4/5 Dem: New Hampshire, Iowa
You are exactly right. I beleive the polls will show Obama leading right up to the GOP convention. When people actually to start to think about the election, around Labor Day, you will start to see a shift. Small at first. I am convinced that most folks even some left of centers are going to look at Obama and his administration and say enough is enough. Obama is worried.
I agree with you.
I have deep respect for Jim Robinson, am very grateful he put this site together, and feel that he is one of those people who has made a significant positive impact in the world. That said, I personally feel that it is imperative that we win this election, even with Romney. Romney would not have made it on my list of preferred candidates, and his Romneycare is against what I believe is best for American health care, but I strongly believe that he is immensely preferable to the composite politically correct ideologically driven and possibly Manchurian current U.S. President.
This is a Republican election to lose, but unfortunately the R's have proved time and again that they are capable of being boneheaded losers.
Likely States
O/161 - R/131
That is the full measure of anything definitive before Labor Day.
Let’s face it, we live under the electoral tyranny of New York and California.
I find the inclusion of these two as "Toss-ups", hilariously absurd.
RCP can call a poll a ham sandwich because they know no one (except me and a very few other Freepers) will ever hold them accountable ... further RCP knows people will repost their polls without any critical faculty applied ...
LLS
14% undecided? LOL
I agree!!! With that many undecided, he is toast. Also, when I look at the “lean” Obama states, some of those are just wishful thinking (and a lot of spinning). I wonder what the polls for Jimmy Carter looked like. I am guessing that he was doing better than Obama and look what happened to him. Even with the voter fraud, he isn’t going to win.
This will make you feel so much better...
Here is an article about the Carter/Reagan polling. Enjoy.
http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,924541,00.html
This will make you feel so much better...
Here is an article about the Carter/Reagan polling. Enjoy.
http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,924541,00.html
Tough to do when you have so many 'open primaries' that allow DEMORATS to 'help' choose the GOP candidate.
C'mon. Using crappy RCP averages of registered voters to forecast Romney's doom is just plain wishful thinking. If you must use meaningless polling this far out, as least rely on a likely voter screen, which shows the race as a toss-up.
If you're looking for a more historically accurate means of long-range electoral prediction, I'd refer you here:
Weak GDP report clouds Obama’s reelection chances
"Let’s say the 2012 economy heading into Election Day resembles that of the past three quarters. If you plug those numbers into the forecasting model created by Ray Fair of Yale University, Obama would get just 48.4% of the two-party vote, a decisive loss to Mitt Romney."
Tony, if the election were held today in Ohio, it would be a near toss-up. The latest polls that I’ve seen in our state has Obama slightly ahead.
While we might find that amazing, that is what they say. Fox News poll is likely voters and Rasmussen is likely voters. Both have Obama ahead by about 4.
Fox News is in the tank for Mitt Romney.
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