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(RCP) Battle for White House: 253 Obama, Toss Ups 115, Romney 170 (Obama only 17 Short)
Real Clear Politics ^ | 3 May 12 | RCP

Posted on 05/03/2012 9:24:35 AM PDT by xzins

Leans Obama

Maine (4)
Michigan (16)
Minnesota (10)
Nevada (6)
New Jersey (14)
New Mexico (5)
Oregon (7)
Pennsylvania (20)
Wisconsin (10)

Toss Up

Arizona (11)
Colorado (9)
Florida (29)
Iowa (6)
Missouri (10)
New Hampshire (4)
North Carolina (15)
Ohio (18)
Virginia (13)

Leans Romney

Georgia (16)
Indiana (11)
Montana (3)
South Carolina (9)

(Excerpt) Read more at realclearpolitics.com ...


TOPICS: News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: elections; florida; ohio; romneytruthfile
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O ne

B ig

A ss

M istake

G Gop-E

The GOP-e's forcefed candidate is losing very badly electorally. Obama's 253 is up from 243 last week so another state or two is now polling in Obama's column.

He needs just 17 more electoral votes to win out of 110 available, AND Rasmussen reports that Obama is LEADING in Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, and Virginia.

Thanks for the circular firing squad GOP-e.

How do we pull this out of the fire? If EVERYONE were to turn on Romney prior to the convention. IF he were polling in the low 30's against Obama by that time, then that convention would have to hari-kari or SWITCH.

It might just switch.

1 posted on 05/03/2012 9:24:47 AM PDT by xzins
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To: xzins

“If EVERYONE were to turn on Romney prior to the convention.”

The opportunity to “turn on Romney” was the Republican primaries.


2 posted on 05/03/2012 9:28:24 AM PDT by FewsOrange
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To: xzins

So where does Rove, The Bastard, think he’s going to get Romney’s electoral votes from?


3 posted on 05/03/2012 9:31:01 AM PDT by tennmountainman
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To: xzins

The GOP never intended to take the white house because they don’t have the stones to face the angry mob. Let’s just hope Obama doesn’t decide to be president for life because the GOP would let him.


4 posted on 05/03/2012 9:32:03 AM PDT by cripplecreek (What does it profit a man if he gains the whole world but loses his soul?)
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To: xzins

Who do we nominate instead - give me a logically choice of someone rather than someone “other than Romney” or someone who has said “no” to a presidential run ?


5 posted on 05/03/2012 9:32:07 AM PDT by Perdogg
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To: FewsOrange

In the primaries 60%+ voted against Romney, and most of them still feel that way.

So, in an “undeluded by massive advertising state of mind” they can simply not support him and tell that to everyone.

That will easily get his polling numbers against Obama down in the 30’s and the GOP will suicide or change horses.


6 posted on 05/03/2012 9:32:35 AM PDT by xzins (Retired Army Chaplain and Proud of It! Obama Disses the Operators Who Took Out Bin Laden in Afghan!)
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To: tennmountainman

out’n’ his a$$???


7 posted on 05/03/2012 9:33:54 AM PDT by xzins (Retired Army Chaplain and Proud of It! Obama Disses the Operators Who Took Out Bin Laden in Afghan!)
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To: xzins

When Romney gets trounced in a landslide, the inside the beltway GOP elites (i.e., Coulter and Rove) will blame the Tea Party, Santorum, Gingrich, Paul, Perry, Bachmann, Palin, Bush — everyone but themselves for the rout. Stupid is as stupid does. Welcome to four more years if Obama.


8 posted on 05/03/2012 9:35:03 AM PDT by Labyrinthos
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9 posted on 05/03/2012 9:37:04 AM PDT by RedMDer (https://support.woundedwarriorproject.org/default.aspx?tsid=93)
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To: xzins

In Michigan 57 of our 83 counties voted for Santorum and Romney won the Obama stronghold that he can’t possibly win in November.

Romney ran for the nomination like a liberal.


10 posted on 05/03/2012 9:39:41 AM PDT by cripplecreek (What does it profit a man if he gains the whole world but loses his soul?)
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To: xzins

How do we pull this out of the fire?

Don’t worry. This polling usally oversamples democrats. I think they do this to get Republicans to just give up and accept their fate. Not gonna work. They do this with everything they say “If you repeat the same lie over and over, people eventually see it as the truth”. Problem is, they cannot control the results of the election (most of the time) so you get the other side to no-show. That is all this is....trying to make you believe he will win. FYI even with the weighted polling, he cannot even hit 50%. That is disaster for him. Don’t fall for it!


11 posted on 05/03/2012 9:43:42 AM PDT by marstegreg
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To: xzins
This poll is useless. It says nothing about what is going to happen in November.

Look at the polls, Wherever Obama is below 50%, which is almost ALL THE STATES THAT ARE LEANING O and anywhere he is behind are IN THE ROMNEY COLLUMN.

Nobody who is undecided is going to break for Obama. It is a historical FACT! He is in big trouble. and he knows it!

Even in the toss up states, Obama is at least 5 points below 50%! They are almost certain losers for Obama. He is a known quantity 100% name recognition and everyone alive with access to sight and sound has scene or heard him in the last 24 hours.

Short of massive voter fraud he is toast! Obama will lose!

12 posted on 05/03/2012 9:47:43 AM PDT by Jim from C-Town (The government is rarely benevolent, often malevolent and never benign!)
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To: xzins

I smell roasting RINO. Obama has had more fund raisers than the past 5 presidents combined. He has been in full campaign mode for over a year. He acts more desperate every day. He panders to his base daily. He is far behind where he was in 2008 and he was no landslide then. In fact he was loosing until the McLame suspended his campaign to tell us that Obama was right about everything.

Sure this poll of polls, weighted to the far left, is cute, but the likelihood that is meaningful is farfetched. The importance of this article is that the RNC is not getting near the money they want and they can’t understand why we don’t love RINO’s.


13 posted on 05/03/2012 9:49:54 AM PDT by Steamburg (The contents of your wallet is the only language Politicians understand.)
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To: xzins

I would have voted for Newt.....


14 posted on 05/03/2012 9:51:25 AM PDT by Gator113 (***YOU GAVE it to Obama. I would have voted for NEWT.~Just livin' life, my way~)
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To: tennmountainman

Do you take seriously any analysis that has as tossup states:

Arizona won by the GOP in the last 3 elections.
Colorado won by G.W. Bush twice.
Florida won by G.W Bush twice.
Iowa won by G.W. Bush in 2004.
Missouri won by G.W. Bush twice
New Hampshire won by G.W.Bush in 2004.
North Carolina won by G.W. Bush twice.
Ohio won by G.W. Bush twice.
Virginia won by G.W. Bush twice.

Now with everything going his way Obama won all these states in 2008 but other than Colorado all swung strongly back to the GOP.


15 posted on 05/03/2012 9:52:28 AM PDT by JLS (How to turn a recession into a depression: elect a Dem president with a big majorities in Congress))
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To: xzins

Tough luck GOP, he`s YOUR leftist North East RINO, YOU guys pull him over the finish line.


16 posted on 05/03/2012 9:52:40 AM PDT by Para-Ord.45
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To: Jim from C-Town

Everybody who isn’t comatose also knows Romney. He is not a newbie, and the name has been around for forever.

And the major advocate of the “polling under 50% undecideds” position is Dick Morris. Dick Morris is an idiot. And, he’s a Trogan Horse.


17 posted on 05/03/2012 9:52:53 AM PDT by xzins (Retired Army Chaplain and Proud of It! Obama Disses the Operators Who Took Out Bin Laden in Afghan!)
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To: JLS

Actually I didn’t take a closer look.
Thanks for the highlites.


18 posted on 05/03/2012 9:54:54 AM PDT by tennmountainman
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To: cripplecreek

I agree with you, but if that were to happen, the streets would become rivers of blood.


19 posted on 05/03/2012 9:55:20 AM PDT by Gator113 (***YOU GAVE it to Obama. I would have voted for NEWT.~Just livin' life, my way~)
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To: JLS

Do you take seriously any analysis that has as tossup states:

Arizona won by the GOP in the last 3 elections.
Colorado won by G.W. Bush twice.
Florida won by G.W Bush twice.
Iowa won by G.W. Bush in 2004.
Missouri won by G.W. Bush twice
New Hampshire won by G.W.Bush in 2004.
North Carolina won by G.W. Bush twice.
Ohio won by G.W. Bush twice.
Virginia won by G.W. Bush twice.

Now with everything going his way Obama won all these states in 2008 but other than Colorado all swung strongly back to the GOP.
____________________________

Exactly. It’s only May, polls like this are bogus and irrelevant at this time.


20 posted on 05/03/2012 9:57:16 AM PDT by mojitojoe (American by birth. Southern by the grace of God. Conservative by reason and logic.)
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To: xzins

Obama 253
Romney 170

The “lean Obama” and “lean Romney” states likely will stay there (no data shows otherwise). I predict the “undecideds” will go as follows:

Obama:

Colorado (9)
Iowa (6)
New Hampshire (4)
Ohio (18)
Florida (29)

Romney:

Arizona (11)
Missouri (10)
North Carolina (15)
Virginia (13)

Obama total: 319
Romney total: 219

Better than McCain’s 2008 numbers, but still well short.


21 posted on 05/03/2012 9:57:43 AM PDT by ScottinVA (Buying Drain-O requires photo I.D... so should voting!)
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To: Jim from C-Town
Nobody who is undecided is going to break for Obama.

One wave of the magic "0bama Munny" wand will entrance many of those "undecideds."

22 posted on 05/03/2012 9:59:59 AM PDT by ScottinVA (Buying Drain-O requires photo I.D... so should voting!)
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To: xzins

It’s not for nothing GOP is called The Stupid Party.


23 posted on 05/03/2012 10:00:07 AM PDT by Josh Painter ("The lesser of two evils is, by definition, evil." - Josh Painter)
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To: Jim from C-Town

No doubt about it. Obama will lose big time. Any poll taken now is totally useless. Romney is going to come like gangbusters, once he gets his VP choice and voters really start pay attention after Labor Day. Obama is in deep trouble, and...he knows it. He is throwing everything at the wall, hoping some of it will stick. Going to Afghanistan was the joke of the century.

Take my word for it, any POTUS candidate that runs at or below 50% is in deep trouble, especially when the gent running against him is not widely known as of yet. My predication, regardless of the Obama media bias, is that Obama will carry between on eight to twelve states. And....the Democrat Party will suffers losses that they will not recover from for at least twenty years.

My predictions for 2010 were the Pubbies would win between 60-70 seats. the actual turnover was eighty-seven, with 63 new members.


24 posted on 05/03/2012 10:01:05 AM PDT by JLAGRAYFOX (My only objective is defeat and destroy Obama & his Democrat Party, politically!!!)
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To: xzins
He can WIN!!!

See tag line.

25 posted on 05/03/2012 10:02:06 AM PDT by Carry_Okie (The RNC would prefer Obama to a conservative nominee.)
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To: ScottinVA

Probably not.

Anubody that will be swayed by an Obama money wand is already in his camp.

It may cause more of them to come out to vote, which isn’t good either.


26 posted on 05/03/2012 10:02:24 AM PDT by Jim from C-Town (The government is rarely benevolent, often malevolent and never benign!)
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To: xzins

Florida is NOT a tossup. o bama stands ZER0 chance in Florida.


27 posted on 05/03/2012 10:05:30 AM PDT by mojitojoe (American by birth. Southern by the grace of God. Conservative by reason and logic.)
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To: JLAGRAYFOX
Excellent analysis.

Obama has yet to get the treatment that Romney gave to Santorum and Gingrich. If nothing else it is easy to find things to beat Obama with. 17 vacations, strange back ground, and aloofness coupled with an economy that is in the tank and sinking is a death sentence for an incumbent president.

Also remember, Obama has told the House and Senate members that he & the party will NOT be giving them any monetary help for their campaign. This is a first ever for any political party and shows how desperate Obama is!

28 posted on 05/03/2012 10:09:42 AM PDT by Jim from C-Town (The government is rarely benevolent, often malevolent and never benign!)
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To: xzins
If EVERYONE were to turn on Romney prior to the convention.

That time has passed. This is what primaries are for and Willard the chameleon won more votes and more delegates than any other candidate. I wish we all could have agreed on an actual conservative, but too many people either refused to consider a consensus candidate or were/are still hopelessly waiting on Palin.

then that convention would have to hari-kari or SWITCH.

Please stop with the fantasies. I know some people don't want to accept it, but it really is time to face reality. There is no mechanism to switch candidates when Romney will have all the delegates he needs to be the official nominee.

Thanks for the circular firing squad GOP-e.

The vast majority of conservative leaders and conservative voters detest Obama and are going to vote for the GOP nominee. You are part of a small minority that claim to refuse. Isn't is really you that is keeping the circular firing squad going?

29 posted on 05/03/2012 10:10:36 AM PDT by Longbow1969
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Obama will lose due to his approval numbers who the pubs run is almost irrelevant. 70% of the people in todays quinnipiac poll (Oh, Pa & Fl) feel we are in a recession. Obama loses period the polls are bs, oversampling dems based on 2008 exit poll data and not the 2010 data.


30 posted on 05/03/2012 10:14:32 AM PDT by Leto (Damn shame Sarah didn't run the Presidency was there for the taking)
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To: xzins

Carter was way ahead of Reagan for most of 1980.


31 posted on 05/03/2012 10:16:03 AM PDT by grumpygresh (Democrats delenda est; zero sera dans l'enfer bientot.)
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To: cripplecreek

Let’s just hope Obama doesn’t decide to be president for life because the GOP would let him.


Yep.

This time the revolution will look like the French Revolution.


32 posted on 05/03/2012 10:18:33 AM PDT by unkus (Silence Is Consent)
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To: JLAGRAYFOX

I like your analysis.


33 posted on 05/03/2012 10:21:44 AM PDT by unkus (Silence Is Consent)
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To: xzins
AHHH< Nobody outside of those tuned into politics knows who Mitt Romney is. He is not a known quantity. He simply has to be scene as palatable to beat Obama.

ALL REELECTIONS ARE ABOUT THE INCUMBENT! And Obama is a stinker polling well below 50% in practically every state.

34 posted on 05/03/2012 10:23:50 AM PDT by Jim from C-Town (The government is rarely benevolent, often malevolent and never benign!)
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To: JLS
Arizona: Bush, Clinton, Bush, Bush, Obama (92,96,2000,2004,2008)(2/5th Democrat)

Colorado: Clinton, Dole, Bush, Bush, Obama (2/5th Dem)

Florida: Bush, Clinton, Bush, Bush, Obama (2/5 Dem)

Iowa: Clinton, Clinton, Gore, Bush, Obama (4/5 Dem)

Missouri: Clinton, Clinton, Bush, Bush, McCain (2/5 Dem)

New Hampshire: Clinton, Clinton, Bush, Kerry, Obama (4/5 Dem)

North Carolina: Bush, Dole, Bush, Bush, Obama (1/5 Dem)

Ohio: Clinton, Clinton, Bush, Bush, Obama (3/5 Dem)

Virginia: Bush, Dole, Bush, Bush, Obama (1/5 Dem)

1/5 Dem: NCarolina, Virginia,
2/5 Dem: Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Missouri
3/5 Dem: Ohio
4/5 Dem: New Hampshire, Iowa

35 posted on 05/03/2012 10:25:24 AM PDT by xzins (Retired Army Chaplain and Proud of It! Obama Disses the Operators Who Took Out Bin Laden in Afghan!)
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To: Jim from C-Town

You are exactly right. I beleive the polls will show Obama leading right up to the GOP convention. When people actually to start to think about the election, around Labor Day, you will start to see a shift. Small at first. I am convinced that most folks even some left of centers are going to look at Obama and his administration and say enough is enough. Obama is worried.


36 posted on 05/03/2012 10:26:54 AM PDT by HOYA97 (twitter @hoya97)
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To: Leto
“Obama will lose due to his approval numbers who the pubs run is almost irrelevant. 70% of the people in todays quinnipiac poll (Oh, Pa & Fl) feel we are in a recession. Obama loses period the polls are bs, oversampling dems based on 2008 exit poll data and not the 2010 data.”

I agree with you.

I have deep respect for Jim Robinson, am very grateful he put this site together, and feel that he is one of those people who has made a significant positive impact in the world. That said, I personally feel that it is imperative that we win this election, even with Romney. Romney would not have made it on my list of preferred candidates, and his Romneycare is against what I believe is best for American health care, but I strongly believe that he is immensely preferable to the composite politically correct ideologically driven and possibly Manchurian current U.S. President.

This is a Republican election to lose, but unfortunately the R's have proved time and again that they are capable of being boneheaded losers.

37 posted on 05/03/2012 10:30:23 AM PDT by pieceofthepuzzle
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To: xzins
RCP? Really? I'll play along, briefly...

Likely States
O/161 - R/131

That is the full measure of anything definitive before Labor Day.

38 posted on 05/03/2012 10:31:08 AM PDT by StAnDeliver ("This is a choice between Mitt Romney and the most radical, leftist president in American history.”)
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To: xzins

Let’s face it, we live under the electoral tyranny of New York and California.


39 posted on 05/03/2012 10:34:40 AM PDT by Andrei Bulba
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To: xzins
Arizona (11)
Missouri (10)

I find the inclusion of these two as "Toss-ups", hilariously absurd.

RCP can call a poll a ham sandwich because they know no one (except me and a very few other Freepers) will ever hold them accountable ... further RCP knows people will repost their polls without any critical faculty applied ...

40 posted on 05/03/2012 10:36:55 AM PDT by StAnDeliver ("This is a choice between Mitt Romney and the most radical, leftist president in American history.”)
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To: xzins
WE WARNED YOU gop/e drones... mitt can't beat obama... the worst president and most racist communist to ever be elected to office in the US... and willard can't beat him... he couldn't even beat mccain... the second worst candidate the repubics have offered up in generations... mitt being number one!

LLS

41 posted on 05/03/2012 10:38:09 AM PDT by LibLieSlayer (Pray hard and often!)
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To: marstegreg
A lot of these polls used to generate the map use REGISTERED VOTERS. That is a plus 5 Dem advantage. Understanding that most undecideds go for the challenger as well makes a difference too. And, of course, any incumbent under 50% even though leading is in trouble. Plus marstegreg's point about certain polls oversampling Ds is a good one.

Some polls, which should be called push polls,anything with NBC, CBS, ABC, and CNN attached, is suspect, on its surface.

Pennsylvania was put in the lean Obama column by a Quinnipiac Poll, which had Obama +8. But a poll of Registered Voters, not Likely voters that is 47-39 Obama with 14 undecided is almost useless. Look at this poll this way - Registered to Likely - D -2.5 R+2.5 So now it is 44.5-41.5 Obama. 14 undecided which splits 3-1 for the challenger (Romney) That means 4.7 more for Obama, and 9.3 more for Romney. Therefore you end up with 49.2 for Obama and 50.8 for Romney. And RCP says that this fresh poll, finished 5/1 is a poll that makes the state 'lean Obama'. RCP is run by good people, McIntyre, is a decent fellow, but with what polls they include in their averages, they do not mean much.

14% undecided? LOL
42 posted on 05/03/2012 10:48:21 AM PDT by BigEdLB (Now there ARE 1,000,000 regrets - but it may be too late.)
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To: BigEdLB

14% undecided? LOL

I agree!!! With that many undecided, he is toast. Also, when I look at the “lean” Obama states, some of those are just wishful thinking (and a lot of spinning). I wonder what the polls for Jimmy Carter looked like. I am guessing that he was doing better than Obama and look what happened to him. Even with the voter fraud, he isn’t going to win.


43 posted on 05/03/2012 11:03:52 AM PDT by marstegreg
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To: xzins

This will make you feel so much better...
Here is an article about the Carter/Reagan polling. Enjoy.

http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,924541,00.html


44 posted on 05/03/2012 11:07:41 AM PDT by marstegreg
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To: xzins

This will make you feel so much better...
Here is an article about the Carter/Reagan polling. Enjoy.

http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,924541,00.html


45 posted on 05/03/2012 11:08:04 AM PDT by marstegreg
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To: FewsOrange
The opportunity to “turn on Romney” was the Republican primaries.

Tough to do when you have so many 'open primaries' that allow DEMORATS to 'help' choose the GOP candidate.

46 posted on 05/03/2012 11:10:54 AM PDT by who knows what evil? (G-d saved more animals than people on the ark...www.siameserescue.org.)
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To: xzins
The GOP-e's forcefed candidate is losing very badly electorally. Obama's 253 is up from 243 last week so another state or two is now polling in Obama's column.

C'mon. Using crappy RCP averages of registered voters to forecast Romney's doom is just plain wishful thinking. If you must use meaningless polling this far out, as least rely on a likely voter screen, which shows the race as a toss-up.

If you're looking for a more historically accurate means of long-range electoral prediction, I'd refer you here:

Weak GDP report clouds Obama’s reelection chances

"Let’s say the 2012 economy heading into Election Day resembles that of the past three quarters. If you plug those numbers into the forecasting model created by Ray Fair of Yale University, Obama would get just 48.4% of the two-party vote, a decisive loss to Mitt Romney."

47 posted on 05/03/2012 11:22:57 AM PDT by TonyInOhio (- bursting with adequesence -)
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To: TonyInOhio

Tony, if the election were held today in Ohio, it would be a near toss-up. The latest polls that I’ve seen in our state has Obama slightly ahead.

While we might find that amazing, that is what they say. Fox News poll is likely voters and Rasmussen is likely voters. Both have Obama ahead by about 4.

Fox News is in the tank for Mitt Romney.


48 posted on 05/03/2012 11:29:25 AM PDT by xzins (Retired Army Chaplain and Proud of It! Obama Disses the Operators Who Took Out Bin Laden in Afghan!)
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To: xzins
The GOPe isn't interested in winning. Their cushy lives go on with either Mittens or Soetoro in the WH. Concentrate on taking the Sin-ate. Chipping away at every election cycle will cause the whole sham of a system to collapse. Another 10 years at least unless this corrupt system collapses under its own weight.
49 posted on 05/03/2012 11:43:17 AM PDT by VRWC For Truth (Throw the bums out who vote yes on the bailout)
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To: marstegreg


Here is some analysis I did of Registered Voter Polls...
I did use the 2/3 of the undecided go to the challenger thoery, so if you want to argue on that, please do so, but crazy Dick Morris says 85-90% based on past elections go to challengers when there is an incumbent. Example Ford was +1 in the last Gallup poll in 1976, but the result was Carter +2

As to the likely voter issue, and Rasmussen... Because you must subscribe to get demographics, it is hard to say if his sample is skewed one way or another in his state polls. Most of his state polls are done in one day, so time of day, is important. His better polls are the ones done over several days, but even there there is sometimes wide fluctuation which are not the most comfort building in terms of accuracy.

There was a truly the King of Bogus polls put out by WMUR/UNH which gets to the attempt to discourage issue. Unfortunately, for the pollster the Obama lead of 9 with a huge oversampling of Dems, which you can compare to the state party figures. If that is `adjusted` to the proper ratio, you get a Romney +2/+3 number... Which coincides with the Dartmouth Coll poll, who did use proper party ID figures when conducting their poll..

Also in the chart, above you can see several cases of oversampling of Dems, most notably PPP in Virginia, and Survey USA in NC...
50 posted on 05/03/2012 11:49:53 AM PDT by BigEdLB (Now there ARE 1,000,000 regrets - but it may be too late.)
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