Skip to comments.Poll: Romney catches Obama in Ohio, Florida but trails in Pa.
Posted on 05/03/2012 2:20:27 PM PDT by Drew68
WASHINGTON -- Its been more than 50 years since a candidate has won the White House without carrying at least two of the three swing states of Ohio, Florida and Pennsylvania, and a new poll shows Mitt Romney neck and neck with President Obama in two of them.
Romney, who trailed Obama 49% to 42% in Florida and 47% to 41% in Ohio in late March, is now statistically tied with the president, 44% to 43% in Florida and 42% to 44% in Ohio, according to a new Quinnipiac University poll of voters in the three states.
Obama, however, has improved on his lead in Pennsylvania, where he beats Romney 47% to 39%, up from the 45%-42% lead he enjoyed in March.
Quinnipiac surveyed 3,467 voters in the three states in interviews on cellphones and land lines from April 25 through May 1. The results of the survey, which has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points, led Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the universitys polling institute, to conclude that Obama is doing slightly better than Romney in the three states.
What appears to be keeping Romney in the ballgame, at least in Florida and Ohio, is the perception he can better fix the economy, Brown said.
(Excerpt) Read more at chicagotribune.com ...
If Romney’s caught the imposter in Ohio and Florida then you can stick a fork in Zero, he’s done.
Not good news for the dog eater...
...except for the fact that RCP shows him with 253 EV’s, which are unlikely to change, and all he needs to do is hold onto the lead he already has in Ohio to win it all...that’s it...win Ohio, a better than even shot right now, and he’s in...
...think my vote’s going to the Constitution Party this year, especially as I live in blue Pa...for all the good it will do me...
God, I hope so.
It won't be this easy though. There's still a battle ahead.
The only impact Virgil Goode will have on this election is if he throws Virginia to Obama, in which case Goode supporters will deservedly find themselves persona non grata in the opinions of a huge segment of Americans.
It’s not good news at all for the messiah.
Romney is at his weakeset right now after the primarys which is normal.
That is going to change drastically in the months to come.
Zero could only hope that the election were held today, because right now would be his best chance, it’s all downhill for him from here.
If Quinnipiac is showing this, this is horrible for thugbama since Quinnipiac is typically favorable to rats in the sampling.
Mickey Mouse could beat Obama this time around. But, there really is no difference between Romney and Obama, so I will not be voting for either one.
The polls that I’ve seen in the last few days are all over the place. Romney up here, Obama up there. Depending on what poll it is, Romney is ahead in a state while another poll has Obama ahead in the same state. Polls won’t mean much until Labor Day.
Problem we have here in PA is this - at each end of the Commonwealth, are two major cities, Philly and Pittsburgh.
Both are heavily RAT cities (no pun intended). As such, we need a SUPER STRONG Republican showing in the rest of the Commonwealth to neutralize the big city vote.
True but Obama should be far ahead right now and then the polls would tighten up closer to election day. That's he's neck and neck with Romney (who technically isn't even the nominee yet) at this early stage does not bode well for his reelection.
Right not the only thing Romney really has to do is not screw up.
Not good news for some Freepers.
Pa isn't very blue at all.
I think it was Carville that said; "Pennsylvania is Pittsburgh and Philadephia with Alabama in between".
“Not good news for some Freepers.”
They want Obama to lose but they don’t want Romney to win. Don’t ask me to figure out how that could make any sense.
Philly is the real problem, not Pittsburgh. Why can't we just give Philly to New Jersey and let Christie deal with it? :o)
A dangerous assumption,IMO.This one's gonna be close,2000 close.If you look at the stats from 2000 you'll not only see that 300 votes made the difference in FL but also that 1000 Nader votes in NH (*four* Electoral Votes),had they gone to algore,would mean "former President algore" today.*Thats* how close 2000 was!
We must fight,scratch and claw our way to the defeat of Bill Ayers's favorite disciple.
I say we take off and nuke it from orbit.
Pennsylvania is not a must win. FL and OH are. This is encouraging news for those hoping to retire Obama in 2013.
That's why these Virgil Goode fools are making me nervous. 5% for Goode in Virginia (current polling numbers in his home state) could be just enough to keep those 13 electoral votes in Obama's column. Lose Virginia and Romney's road to 270 just got a helluva lot steeper.
Lose PA and he'll absolutely need VA, NC and IA. This takes him to 272 according to 270 to win (cool site, BTW). See my previous post on the current perils in Virginia.
...and I was born there.
Allegheny went Sestak - so Allegheny is part of the problem, not part of the solution.
I know. Of course it's insane. But nobody ever accused turd party doo-dads of having the sense they were born with.
Romney will not win PA under any circumstances. My state is a case in point on why the RNC’s strategy to “appeal to moderates” won’t work. The libs in the Philly area will stick with Obama and Romney won’t turn out the base in Carville’s “T” in Pennsylvania. These are blue collar people with classic American values, not just mindless “haters” of the current President. A millionaire Mormon from Massachusetts has no appeal to them. They’re independent thinkers and don’t just vote party line. The candidate has to appeal to them. Turnout was down in the primary from 2008 despite McCain already having all the delegates he needed in 2008. McCain was a better crossover candidate for PA than Romney and he lost by 10 points. OH and FL were much closer losses for McCain so Romney has a chance there.
A Republican hasn't won PA since G.H.W. Bush in '88. Not really sure why they call it a swing state. It's pretty solidly blue when it comes to electing a president.
I’d rather get a chance in 2016 for a conservative to win than have Romney for 8 years or Romney beaten by a Democrat in 2016. Romney’s a phony, a fraud and a fake. If he wins, then he and others like him are the future of the Republican party. There’s a chance to restore the Republican party as a party that stands and fights for conservative values if he loses, but not if he wins. So spare us the condescending remarks. Third party voting is a valid strategic move.
We haven't elected a conservative since 1984. What makes you think we'll get one next cycle?
What we need to do is get the dog-eating Marxist out of the White House!
Look at the marginal difference between Allegheny and Philadelphia counties, that tells the tale.
Pittsburgh is a headache, Philadelphia is a rampant cancer.
stick a fork in Zero, hes done.-——————
And feed him to a dog
No doubt about it. The third party voters will think they've done a great service and wallow in their delusions of superiority. Strange breed indeed.
Because maybe the Tea Party and every other conservative group will get its act together after this year’s debacle. I don’t expect the people who endorsed Santorum will wait until February next time to pick a horse.
This takes him to 272 according to 270 to win (cool site, BTW)...
...if you like playing with 270, do this, if you will...click PA and NV to blue, as RCP has already done, and then look at the winning possibilities that result yields...ten possibiities for dogmeat and five for Romney...and all five require a FL victory, and four others require both FL and OH...on the other hand, the dog eater has three possibilities without winning FL or OH, unlikely as they may be...I have no idea how you conclude this election is Romney’s to win, minus a screwup...he could play every card perfectly and still lose, his margin of error is that thin...
on the other hand, the dog eater has three possibilities without winning FL or OH, unlikely as they may be...
...I erred...the dog eater has not three winning combinations without FL or OH, but actually has eight...
It's your right but it is a tactic not a strategery, and in this case, it's not even a good tactic.
There is, however, no law that prevents stupidity, and you will show us and exercise your rights to the fullest.
I hope that I've spared you the condescending remarks, mook.
I can hardly contain my excitement.
You're right. I get wrapped in national poll results and forget that at the end of the day, the only thing that matters are electoral votes. In addition to Florida and Ohio, Virginia and North Carolina are must-have states for Romney and, ouch, like FL and OH, they both went blue last election.
“Problem we have here in PA is this - at each end of the Commonwealth, are two major cities, Philly and Pittsburgh.
Both are heavily RAT cities (no pun intended)”
Give Philadelphia and its suburbs to New Jersey.
Give Pittsburgh to... hmmm, that’s harder....
Could give it to Ohio, but that might “tip” Ohio to the blue side.
Don’t give it to West Virginia, WV is the only state north of the Mason-Dixon line that voted for McCain over Obama (I believe).
How about, “West Maryland”? :)
I live in Pennsylvania. The good news is, outside the largest cities, the majority is fairly conservative.
The bad news is, the probable nominee is not a conservative.
I predict Romney will get less than 200 electoral votes in November.
“...if you like playing with 270, do this, if you will...click PA and NV to blue, as RCP has already done, and then look at the winning possibilities that result yields...ten possibiities for dogmeat and five for Romney...and all five require a FL victory, and four others require both FL and OH...on the other hand, the dog eater has three possibilities without winning FL or OH, unlikely as they may be...I have no idea how you conclude this election is Romneys to win, minus a screwup...he could play every card perfectly and still lose, his margin of error is that thin...”
270 (Romney) to 268 (Obama), unless there is a “Nebraska split”.
I think you're right.I haven't sat down and done the new math required by the census but I think all we have to do is take the same states that W took in 2000.Seems "do-able" to me now that the bloom is off Osama's rose.
Lose Virginia and Romney’s road to 270 just got a helluva lot steeper.
I guess the GOP should have considered the effect nominating a liberal would have on it’s base. May be the elites could have compromised and supported Newt or Santorum. The elites have made it clear that it’s their way or the highway and now they a crying because some chose the highway.
We’ve got to get Obama out of there. I just with we had a better nominee.
This election just has this vibe to it that the Democrats and their media minions are much more nervous than they want to show. Romney takes Ohio and Florida, and Obama is all but over. Obama had a momentum bubble for being the first black President and people always want to be a part of history, but now that that is over states like Virginia, Indiana and North Carolina are coming home. New Hampshire is a lost cause for him with Romney being the strong nominee. Frankly, I look at the map and don’t see a plausible Obama win. He is going to have to fight in blue Michigan, Wisconsin, Iowa and Philadelphia. He is competitive but at a fundamental disadvantage in Colorado and Nevada. And even if he wins all of that, all of it, he still loses without Ohio and Florida. Obama needs a game changer or Romney will be President.
“Myth Romney ... and his E-RINO party-thugs deserve “every minute” of the poltical ass-kicking they’re gonna get ... “
and America deserves 4 more years of BO? God Save America.