Skip to comments.Francois Hollande Wins in France and Europe Descends Into No-Man's Land
Posted on 05/07/2012 6:35:12 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
Socialist candidate Francois Hollande has won the French election as expected. His high-tax, pro-stimulus, welfare-state-protection platform, in effect, scuttles the Eurozone rescue program engineered by Merkel and a reluctant Sarkozy.
Hollandes election leaves the European Union with three stark choices, none of which are good: 1) Germany and the European Central Bank cave and bail out any and all debtor countries under the cover of some fictitious future fiscal discipline, or 2) The Eurozone countries muddle along from one band-aid fix to the next as the bond vigilantes breathe down their necks while they hope to catch a break, or 3) Germany and the Nordic states withdraw from the Eurozone to their own currency. The rest of the Eurozone can stay on the devalued Euro or revert to their own currencies.
My guess is that the muddle-along approach will be selected by default. No one is prepared for drastic action at this time. The Germans and Nordic states do not want to bear the brunt of the Euro bonds that they must guarantee for the bail outs. The European Central Bank is reluctant to abandon its single inflation-fighting mandate. The breaking up of the Eurozone takes all of Europe into uncharted territory.
The European Union has finally hit a brick wall. It had hoped to repair a flawed foundation with an enforceable austerity fiscal pact, but it can no longer do so. Major European Union actions require evidence of popular support such as elections. The electorates, we see from the French election and the poor showing of the two major parties in todays Greek vote, will not support even a whiff of real austerity.
(Excerpt) Read more at forbes.com ...
NOTE TO THOSE WHO WANT TO INCREASE TAXES ON THE WEALTHY, OBAMA STYLE (FROM THE ARTICLE ):
It is notable that early accounts suggest that wealthy French businessmen have begun moving their assets out of France. If Frances own citizens react in that way, I can imagine what the international bond vigilantes will do.
Note folks that in Germany, Angela Merkels coalition also suffered a major defeat in Sundays Schleswig Holstein state election. So, Merkels government could ALSO fall, making way for a Social Democratic-Green coalition, which takes a less firm stand on austerity.
Au revoir, EU. I hope I spelled that right. I took German instead of French. Good choice, apparently.
Alveterzane EU works just as well.
I think we’re seeing the last days of the Euro currency.
——My guess is that the muddle-along approach will be selected by default-——
This is how most public policy is determined in republics.
The trick is to reset the default value.
This requires dramatic action, usually by a charismatic leader, such as Thatcher, Reagan or... Obama.
The only silver lining, if you can call it that, is that the world economy will most assuredly be mired deep in the double-dip on the day Obama stands for re-election.
As I recall from my 7th grade German class, that should be “auf wiedersehen”.
If only the socialists in our political class were as honest about their beliefs...
Unless a charismatic stranger appears out of nowhere, seemingly with all the right answers. A miracle worker figuratively or literally. He will unite the EU again by the force of his character and the smoke and mirrors of his promises for the future. He might even be worshipped literally by the crowds. He will seem to do such a fantastic job with the EU that his influence and later rule will spread world wide.
Think this is too farfetched to happen now? Look what happened with Obama. I did not think In this country a candidate would be literally worshipped and treated as a messianic figure. And that was before he produced any results. How much more if a European leader “solves” the European economic crisis? The only thing in his way will be those pesky Christians who see through him. But they are easy enough to get rid of....
I am not going to rely on the idea that there will actually BE elections in Nov. I truly believe that the commie punk will have his Schutzen Staffel troops in the streets by then.
The French election and business
The 75% tax and other alarming campaign promises
Apr 7th 2012 | PARIS
EUROFINS SCIENTIFIC, a bio-analytics firm, is the sort of enterprise that France boasts about. It is fast-growing, international and hungry to buy rivals. So people noticed when in March it decamped to Luxembourg. Observers reckon it was fleeing Frances high taxes. It will soon be joined by Sword Group, a successful software firm, which voted to move to Luxembourg last month.
François Hollande, the Socialist candidate, and the current favourite to win the second and final round on May 6th, has promised a top marginal income-tax rate of 75% for those earning over 1m ($1.3m). He has declared war on finance. he pledges, corporate taxes will rise and stock options will be outlawed.
May 4, 2012 4:32 pm
Wealthy French eye move across the Channel
By James Pickford, London and South-East Correspondent
Wealthy French people are looking to London as a refuge from fresh taxes on high earners pledged by candidates in the countrys presidential elections.
The soak the rich rhetoric that has punctuated the presidential campaign has prompted a sharp rise in the numbers weighing a move across the Channel, according to London-based wealth managers, lawyers and property agents specialising in French clients.
François Hollande, the Socialist My true adversary in this battle has no name, no face, no party ... It is the world of finance.
Inquiries from French clients had risen by roughly 40 per cent since the speech, says David Blanc, a partner at Vestra Wealth, a London-based wealth manager.
I have definitely seen strong interest in what could be done to protect assets both for people resident in France but also for French nationals who are UK resident, said Mr Blanc, a former UBS executive.
The prospect of a Gallic diaspora of high earners was backed up by Knight Frank, the property agent, which said numbers of French web users searching online for its prime London properties online in the past three months had risen 19 per cent compared with the same period last year. The equivalent figure for Europe as a whole fell 9 per cent.
The election seems to have pushed a growing number of wealthy French to consider their options for where they are likely to base themselves in the future, says Liam Bailey, head of research at Knight Frank.
French elite are fleeing Paris, to live in Brussels ‘tax haven’
02 May 2012
Faced with increasing hostility at home, France’s moneyed classes are taking flight to Belgium because they do not like either Hollande or Sarkozy - Brussels, on the other hand, seems to cater for all of the needs of the rich
France’s wealthy do not feel the need to wait for the outcome of their country’s presidential election; they are already voting with their feet. Convinced the rich will no longer be welcome under the next government, many are moving to neighbouring Belgium. Calls from France to tax lawyers and estate agents in Brussels are increasing in frequency by the week. When Socialist candidate François Hollande, the pollsters’ favourite, broke clear of incumbent Nicolas Sarkozy after the first round of voting - Brussels estate agents reported receiving up to 20 calls a day from French house-hunters. Most were looking to rent four and five-bedroom properties in the capital’s most desirable districts with an average budget of 3,500 a month.
Hollande - who famously said he “doesn’t like the rich” - wants to put up the country’s wealth tax; in French, impôt sur la fortune. Belgium, on the other hand “loves entrepreneurs,” says Brussels-based tax lawyer Manoel Dekeyser. Belgium’s salaried employees might suffer under some of the highest taxes in the European Union, but the fiscal system is quite forgiving for the cash-rich. “Half of all those who move to Belgium want to sell their company,” Dekeyser tells PublicServiceEurope.com . “They are usually aged between 40 and 50.” There is no capital gains tax in Belgium, meaning that those who sell a firm - provided they can prove residency - walk away with the entire profit. To preserve this money from France’s wealth tax, they often stay permanently in Belgium.
The French just double downed on stupid.
Austerity will hit them, but in a way they cannot control or survive.
It’s a pretty sad state of affairs when people have to seek out *London* as a tax haven.
What the new French President has said regarding free markets is what the Liberal Messiah thinks of them. I’m sure if He is reelected, He will be as outspoken as France’s new President.
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