Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

Francois Hollande Wins in France and Europe Descends Into No-Man's Land
Forbes ^ | 05/07/2012 | Paul Roderick Gregory

Posted on 05/07/2012 6:35:12 AM PDT by SeekAndFind

Socialist candidate Francois Hollande has won the French election as expected. His high-tax, pro-stimulus, welfare-state-protection platform, in effect, scuttles the Eurozone rescue program engineered by Merkel and a reluctant Sarkozy.

Hollande’s election leaves the European Union with three stark choices, none of which are good: 1) Germany and the European Central Bank cave and bail out any and all debtor countries under the cover of some fictitious future fiscal discipline, or 2) The Eurozone countries muddle along from one band-aid fix to the next as the bond vigilantes breathe down their necks while they hope to catch a break, or 3) Germany and the Nordic states withdraw from the Eurozone to their own currency. The rest of the Eurozone can stay on the devalued Euro or revert to their own currencies.

My guess is that the muddle-along approach will be selected by default. No one is prepared for drastic action at this time. The Germans and Nordic states do not want to bear the brunt of the Euro bonds that they must guarantee for the bail outs. The European Central Bank is reluctant to abandon its single inflation-fighting mandate. The breaking up of the Eurozone takes all of Europe into uncharted territory.

The European Union has finally hit a brick wall. It had hoped to repair a flawed foundation with an enforceable austerity fiscal pact, but it can no longer do so. Major European Union actions require evidence of popular support such as elections. The electorates, we see from the French election and the poor showing of the two major parties in today’s Greek vote, will not support even a whiff of real austerity.

(Excerpt) Read more at forbes.com ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Foreign Affairs; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: europe; france; hollande; sarkozy
The electorates of the debtor nations will simply deliver an ultimatum: Bail us out so we can continue our wastrel ways or we’ll all go down with the EU ship together.
1 posted on 05/07/2012 6:35:24 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind

NOTE TO THOSE WHO WANT TO INCREASE TAXES ON THE WEALTHY, OBAMA STYLE (FROM THE ARTICLE ):

It is notable that early accounts suggest that wealthy French businessmen have begun moving their assets out of France. If France’s own citizens react in that way, I can imagine what the international bond vigilantes will do.

Note folks that in Germany, Angela Merkel’s coalition also suffered a major defeat in Sunday’s Schleswig Holstein state election. So, Merkel’s government could ALSO fall, making way for a Social Democratic-Green coalition, which takes a less firm stand on austerity.


2 posted on 05/07/2012 6:37:52 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind

Au revoir, EU. I hope I spelled that right. I took German instead of French. Good choice, apparently.


3 posted on 05/07/2012 6:39:50 AM PDT by July4 (Remember the price paid for your freedom.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind
The big question everyone has been asking was what country would be the first out of the Euro. Strangely it might be Germany. The loss of France to the socialists means that Germany will now be forced to stand alone and pay the bills of all the other Eurozone nations. The German people might not stand for it and simply pick up their ball (or in this case bankroll) and go home.
4 posted on 05/07/2012 6:42:47 AM PDT by GonzoGOP (There are millions of paranoid people in the world and they are all out to get me.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: July4

Alveterzane EU works just as well.


5 posted on 05/07/2012 6:45:12 AM PDT by GonzoGOP (There are millions of paranoid people in the world and they are all out to get me.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 3 | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind
The disasters that will occur during the next 12 to 18 months will hearken the beginnings of dictatorships popping up again. All Mussolini had to do was get the trains to run on time and he took over. Can you imagine what's about to happen. The European Socialist and Communist have been taught by Obama. They witness what he did with General Motors, Chrysler and say why not do the same. The hell with the bond holders, stockholders, etc. we'll just take over.
I'm curious to see what the public will do when that happens. In Europe they'll be happy. Not so sure in the US.
An old saying in the lending business. The one who owes the money doesn't have to worry. It's who they money is owed to that has to worry.
The funniest part of this is the world is advocating civil, ethical and reasonable treatment of one another. I wonder if that will prevail in the next year or two.
6 posted on 05/07/2012 6:48:01 AM PDT by bramps
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind

Merde.


7 posted on 05/07/2012 6:49:41 AM PDT by Méabh
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind

I think we’re seeing the last days of the Euro currency.


8 posted on 05/07/2012 6:58:21 AM PDT by Eric in the Ozarks
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind

——My guess is that the muddle-along approach will be selected by default-——

This is how most public policy is determined in republics.

The trick is to reset the default value.

This requires dramatic action, usually by a charismatic leader, such as Thatcher, Reagan or... Obama.


9 posted on 05/07/2012 7:05:35 AM PDT by St_Thomas_Aquinas (Viva Christo Rey!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Eric in the Ozarks

The only silver lining, if you can call it that, is that the world economy will most assuredly be mired deep in the double-dip on the day Obama stands for re-election.


10 posted on 05/07/2012 7:08:54 AM PDT by Buckeye McFrog
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 8 | View Replies]

To: GonzoGOP

As I recall from my 7th grade German class, that should be “auf wiedersehen”.


11 posted on 05/07/2012 7:14:57 AM PDT by CA Conservative (Texan by birth, Californian by circumstance)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 5 | View Replies]

To: Buckeye McFrog

If only the socialists in our political class were as honest about their beliefs...


12 posted on 05/07/2012 7:16:39 AM PDT by MrB (The difference between a Humanist and a Satanist - the latter knows whom he's working for)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 10 | View Replies]

To: bramps

Unless a charismatic stranger appears out of nowhere, seemingly with all the right answers. A miracle worker figuratively or literally. He will unite the EU again by the force of his character and the smoke and mirrors of his promises for the future. He might even be worshipped literally by the crowds. He will seem to do such a fantastic job with the EU that his influence and later rule will spread world wide.

Think this is too farfetched to happen now? Look what happened with Obama. I did not think In this country a candidate would be literally worshipped and treated as a messianic figure. And that was before he produced any results. How much more if a European leader “solves” the European economic crisis? The only thing in his way will be those pesky Christians who see through him. But they are easy enough to get rid of....


13 posted on 05/07/2012 7:25:03 AM PDT by Mom MD (The country needs Obamacare like Nancy Pelosi needs a Halloween mask)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 6 | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind
The electorates, we see from the French election and the poor showing of the two major parties in today’s Greek vote, will not support even a whiff of real austerity.

Definition of Austerity: When a government reduces its spending and/or increases user fees and taxes to pay back creditors. Austerity is usually required when a government's fiscal deficit spending is believed to be unsustainable.

IOW, the citizens of the EU STILL believe that their way of life is sustainable. A real shame that the people of this world will not wake up and realize that their personal greed will lead to the elimination of their liberty.
14 posted on 05/07/2012 7:33:55 AM PDT by Eagle of Liberty (We the People are coming!!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Buckeye McFrog
“The only silver lining, if you can call it that, is that the world economy will most assuredly be mired deep in the double-dip on the day Obama stands for re-election.”

___

I am not going to rely on the idea that there will actually BE elections in Nov. I truly believe that the commie punk will have his Schutzen Staffel troops in the streets by then.

15 posted on 05/07/2012 7:37:48 AM PDT by mongo141 (Revolution ver 2.0, just a matter of when, not a matter of if!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 10 | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind

The French election and business
The terror
The 75% tax and other alarming campaign promises

Apr 7th 2012 | PARIS

EUROFINS SCIENTIFIC, a bio-analytics firm, is the sort of enterprise that France boasts about. It is fast-growing, international and hungry to buy rivals. So people noticed when in March it decamped to Luxembourg. Observers reckon it was fleeing France’s high taxes. It will soon be joined by Sword Group, a successful software firm, which voted to move to Luxembourg last month.

François Hollande, the Socialist candidate, and the current favourite to win the second and final round on May 6th, has promised a top marginal income-tax rate of 75% for those earning over €1m ($1.3m). He has declared war on finance. he pledges, corporate taxes will rise and stock options will be outlawed.

http://www.economist.com/node/21552219/print

May 4, 2012 4:32 pm
Wealthy French eye move across the Channel

By James Pickford, London and South-East Correspondent

Wealthy French people are looking to London as a refuge from fresh taxes on high earners pledged by candidates in the country’s presidential elections.

The “soak the rich” rhetoric that has punctuated the presidential campaign has prompted a sharp rise in the numbers weighing a move across the Channel, according to London-based wealth managers, lawyers and property agents specialising in French clients.

François Hollande, the Socialist “My true adversary in this battle has no name, no face, no party ... It is the world of finance.”

Inquiries from French clients had risen by roughly 40 per cent since the speech, says David Blanc, a partner at Vestra Wealth, a London-based wealth manager.

“I have definitely seen strong interest in what could be done to protect assets both for people resident in France but also for French nationals who are UK resident,” said Mr Blanc, a former UBS executive.

The prospect of a Gallic diaspora of high earners was backed up by Knight Frank, the property agent, which said numbers of French web users searching online for its prime London properties online in the past three months had risen 19 per cent compared with the same period last year. The equivalent figure for Europe as a whole fell 9 per cent.

“The election seems to have pushed a growing number of wealthy French to consider their options for where they are likely to base themselves in the future,” says Liam Bailey, head of research at Knight Frank.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/278412e6-9538-11e1-8faf-00144feab49a.html#axzz1uC5T3LRP

French elite are fleeing Paris, to live in Brussels ‘tax haven’
02 May 2012

Faced with increasing hostility at home, France’s moneyed classes are taking flight to Belgium because they do not like either Hollande or Sarkozy - Brussels, on the other hand, seems to cater for all of the needs of the rich

France’s wealthy do not feel the need to wait for the outcome of their country’s presidential election; they are already voting with their feet. Convinced the rich will no longer be welcome under the next government, many are moving to neighbouring Belgium. Calls from France to tax lawyers and estate agents in Brussels are increasing in frequency by the week. When Socialist candidate François Hollande, the pollsters’ favourite, broke clear of incumbent Nicolas Sarkozy after the first round of voting - Brussels estate agents reported receiving up to 20 calls a day from French house-hunters. Most were looking to rent four and five-bedroom properties in the capital’s most desirable districts with an average budget of €3,500 a month.

Hollande - who famously said he “doesn’t like the rich” - wants to put up the country’s wealth tax; in French, impôt sur la fortune. Belgium, on the other hand “loves entrepreneurs,” says Brussels-based tax lawyer Manoel Dekeyser. Belgium’s salaried employees might suffer under some of the highest taxes in the European Union, but the fiscal system is quite forgiving for the cash-rich. “Half of all those who move to Belgium want to sell their company,” Dekeyser tells PublicServiceEurope.com . “They are usually aged between 40 and 50.” There is no capital gains tax in Belgium, meaning that those who sell a firm - provided they can prove residency - walk away with the entire profit. To preserve this money from France’s wealth tax, they often stay permanently in Belgium.

http://www.publicserviceeurope.com/print-article.asp?id=1876


16 posted on 05/07/2012 7:39:19 AM PDT by KeyLargo
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind

The French just double downed on stupid.

Austerity will hit them, but in a way they cannot control or survive.


17 posted on 05/07/2012 7:45:53 AM PDT by Texas resident (Hunkered Down)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind

It’s a pretty sad state of affairs when people have to seek out *London* as a tax haven.


18 posted on 05/07/2012 7:57:56 AM PDT by Raebie (WS)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind

What the new French President has said regarding free markets is what the Liberal Messiah thinks of them. I’m sure if He is reelected, He will be as outspoken as France’s new President.


19 posted on 05/07/2012 8:00:52 AM PDT by Repeal 16-17 (Let me know when the Shooting starts.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: MrB
"Off with their heads!" "Those filthy rich!"
20 posted on 05/07/2012 8:05:33 AM PDT by KeyLargo
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 12 | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind

The parasites outnumber the hosts, and there is a complete disconnect with reality - - the socialists have run out of other people’s money.

Keep the popcorn handy. This is going to get hilarious - - to those of us who are prepared, and have hunkered down with guns, ammo, fertile land, big dogs, and precious metals.


21 posted on 05/07/2012 8:09:50 AM PDT by Lancey Howard
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: KeyLargo

Great post!
I love stories about successful people “voting with their feet”.


22 posted on 05/07/2012 8:13:09 AM PDT by Lancey Howard
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 16 | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind
stupid french..digging deeper/faster with many more shovels.

23 posted on 05/07/2012 8:13:24 AM PDT by skinkinthegrass (WA. DC E$tabli$hment; DNC/RNC/Unionists...old Brazilian saying: "$@me $hit; different flie$". :^)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind
The biggest practical problem with M. Hollande's tax-and-spend policy is that he is likely to see the victims of his tax policy leave la belle France.

Taxing the rich, particularly with those odious wealth taxes that France imposes, is a powerful incentive for tax relief emigration.

24 posted on 05/07/2012 8:13:49 AM PDT by snowsislander (Please, America, no more dog-eating Kenyan cokeheads in the Oval Office.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: snowsislander

Good time to be a real estate agent in Monaco.


25 posted on 05/07/2012 8:14:24 AM PDT by dfwgator (Don't wake up in a roadside ditch. Get rid of Romney.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 24 | View Replies]

To: Lancey Howard

26 posted on 05/07/2012 8:24:07 AM PDT by KeyLargo
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 21 | View Replies]

To: GonzoGOP

Auf weidersehen — I think that’s how it’s spelled.

Time to bring out those books on how to learn German!


27 posted on 05/07/2012 8:24:57 AM PDT by WashingtonSource
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 5 | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind

When in the world’s history has a parasite learned to restrain itself lest its host collapse to its own demise?


28 posted on 05/07/2012 8:25:41 AM PDT by Redmen4ever
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Redmen4ever
All successful parasites tend to keep their host alive - at least long enough to spread the parasite.

Real virulence comes when a parasite or pathogen ‘jumps hosts’ and doesn't “know” how to restrain itself in its new host. Those super virulent variations tend to kill themselves off with the host - until a few generations later the parasite or pathogen has ‘made the jump’ and now lives inside the host without as much harm.

That being said - I don't think society can as easily suffer through the same natural selection as fast reproducing parasites or pathogens.

What needs to change is minds and policies.

29 posted on 05/07/2012 8:33:46 AM PDT by allmendream (Tea Party did not send GOP to DC to negotiate the terms of our surrender to socialism)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 28 | View Replies]

To: bramps

The funniest part of this is the world is advocating civil, ethical and reasonable treatment of one another. I wonder if that will prevail in the next year or two.


The world is not all one thing. Most of the Muslim world advocates death to their infidel enemies. They are committing genocide against Christians in Africa. IN the Middle East they are persecuting Christians and want to commit genocide against the Jews. The globalist “tolerance” elitists in the West have been sorely abusive against the natives of Europe in the name of accomodating a forced invasion of Islam. They are threatened with prison if they object to that abuse which is like locking the lid on a steam cooker.

After watching Obama inspire about thirty hate crimes and a race based show trial in the Trayvon race bait case and threaten the country with race war, we can not be called a society concerned about ethics or human rights. The globalist elite in America hate white Americans like the elite in Europe hate white Europeans. The treasonous “citizens of the world” might get the tables of hate turned back on themselves in Europe. It’s a mess.


30 posted on 05/07/2012 9:04:12 AM PDT by SaraJohnson
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 6 | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind
Bail us out so we can continue our wastrel ways or we’ll all go down with the EU ship together.

To mix a metaphor:

31 posted on 05/07/2012 3:14:07 PM PDT by Oatka (This is America. Assimilate or evaporate.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson