Skip to comments.Indiana, N Carolina, and W Va Test Romney and Paul Support (Vote PAUL to show Romney's Weakness)
Posted on 05/08/2012 6:54:16 AM PDT by xzins
Tuesday's primaries are three of the nine contests in the 2008 and 2012 cycles held when the presumptive GOP nominee and Ron Paul were the only active candidates left in the race
While the most closely-watched contest on Tuesday may be the Indiana Republican U.S. Senate primary battle between six-term incumbent Dick Lugar and Indiana Treasurer Richard Mourdock, there will still be a few things to keep an eye on at the top of the ticket in the Hoosier State, North Carolina, and West Virginia.
For these three presidential primaries will be the first in which Mitt Romney faces only one opponent on the ballot who has not yet suspended his campaign - Texas Congressman Ron Paul.
Paul's campaign has had a bit of a resurgence of late, with strong showings in the delegate selection phase in caucus states like Iowa, Minnesota, and Maine.
The primaries on Tuesday in Indiana, North Carolina, and West Virginia will be a good test both of Mitt Romney's popularity at this stage of the campaign vis-à-vis John McCain in 2008, as well as Ron Paul's own base of support.
These three states, along with the upcoming primaries in Kentucky, Montana, Nebraska, New Mexico, Oregon, and South Dakota, each also featured two-man races in 2008 with McCain and Paul.
And so, with Congressman Paul's support significantly higher this cycle throughout the primary season, as well as voters not coalescing around Romney's campaign compared to other presumptive nominees in Republican Party history, expect more scrutiny over Romney's ability to turn out the GOP base in November if he fails to receive at least two-thirds of the vote Tuesday.
Only one of the remaining 12 primary states, Montana, is in classic "Ron Paul country" - the Texas congressman has excelled in both cycles in northern border states - although he also may perform particularly well in Oregon and South Dakota in the coming weeks.
So how much of a boost can Paul expect to receive in his one-on-one challenge against the former Massachusetts governor?
In 2008, Congressman Paul averaged 7.4 percent in the 41 state primaries and caucuses held before Mike Huckabee dropped out of the race on March 4th - leaving the field open to just McCain and Paul.
That left just two active candidates in the race (with the occasional ex-candidate still lingering on the ballot) for the remaining 12 contests.
Paul averaged 12.4 percent of the vote in those dozen primaries, or an increase of only 5.0 points when he had a one-on-one matchup against John McCain.
In 2012, Paul has averaged 15.7 percent of the primary and caucus vote through the first 37 contests (excluding U.S. territories).
Representative Paul has at least doubled his percentage of vote received from 2008 to 2012 in nearly half of these contests (17 states): Ohio (+100.0 percent), Arizona (+104.8), Iowa (+114.0), Florida (+118.8), Georgia (+127.6), Wisconsin (+138.3), Delaware (+152.4), New York (+153.2), Missouri (+171.1), Oklahoma (+190.9), New Hampshire (+197.4), Connecticut (+221.4), Massachusetts (+251.9), South Carolina (+261.1), Rhode Island (+266.2), Vermont (+283.3), and Virginia (+800.0).
That includes double-digit improvements on his 2008 tally in seven states: Iowa (+11.4 points), Maine (+17.8), New Hampshire (+15.2), Rhode Island (+17.3), Vermont (+18.7), and Virginia (+36.0).
The only two states in which Paul has received a lower percentage of the vote in 2012 compared to 2008 are Idaho and Pennsylvania.
However, when Paul won 15.5 percent in Pennsylvania in 2008, he was the only active candidate in the race other than McCain. Paul fell just shy of that mark in April with 13.2 percent with Gingrich still officially in the race tallying 10.5 percent.
The same is true in Idaho, where Paul and McCain were the only candidates on the primary ballot in 2008 when he notched 23.7 percent of the vote. In the 2012 Idaho caucuses, Paul was one of four active candidates on the ballot when he won 18.1 percent.
In Tuesday's primary states four years ago, Paul only received 7.7 percent in Indiana, 7.2 percent in North Carolina, and 5.0 percent in West Virginia.
Not if your INTENTION was to establish or strengthen a 3rd conservative party.
Then your vote would do EXACTLY as intended.
Great news we will get out in a bit I am in a small rural area in Pender, I know the morons in New Hanover will vote against.
Reagan lost to the guy that lost to Carter, so I have no idea why anyone would be confident that he can beat Carter.
I can intend to write in Donald Duck because I believe there is a nationwide movement to elect a Disney character. Doesn't mean it isn't a stupid idea. 3rd party's don't work in our winner take all system. With no opportunity for coalition government, 3rd party's will always fail. Why do you think Ron Paul came back to the Republican party? He knew that without the GOP label his beliefs could never be advanced.
Same silly statement could be said about the 1980 GOP nominee who lost to Ford in 1976...and Ford lost to Carter.
Gingrich is still on the ballot in WV, so I voted for him.
One interesting thing I noticed about the WV presidential primary ballot is that you vote for a slate of individual delegates in addition to your candidate. One section of the ballot said ‘vote for no more than nineteen’. But it gets even more complicated... Gingrich (and many of the other candidates also) had about 25 delegates on his slate. So which 19 should I vote for? I opted to pick the first 19 in ballot order, hoping other Gingrich voters would follow a similar pattern.
But it is conceivably possible that a candidate wins the presidential preference vote AND a candidate’s slate of delegates get the most total votes, but another candidate’s delegates get elected to attend the convention because the votes have been spread out in an unfavorable pattern.
There are way too many complexities in the presidential voting process that are prone to manipulation by insiders. The WV delegate slates are a relatively minor issue, but incorrect Iowa results and the Virginia ballot access debacle had a real impact on the election by allowing insiders to give Romney momentum at times when he was vulnerable.
Having lived in Virginia for 13 years, I fully believe that the ballot exclusion of Gingrich and others was intential manipulation of the electoral process by party officials, and not just bad luck. We need to start now to end the political careers of the state officials in Iowa, Virginia and other states that manipulated the process in favor of Romney.
Donald Duck is a fictional character.
The Libertarian and Constitution Party are recognized alternative parties in the US.
There is absolutely not one time that the US Constitution uses the word “party” whether in the body, the bill of rights, or the other amendments.
There is no place at all that the US Constitution says “The US is a 2 Party System”.
Now THAT is fictional.
“If you know youre going to lose, then why continue down that path?”
Because you are AN IDIOT? Ross Perot was not responsible for the Republican loss that gave us Clinton. Republicans were responsible for Ross Perot. Another RINO candidate like Romney will lose again.
I’m in NC and DIDNT vote Romney....I voted Santorum as I couldn’t decide between him and Newt...I’ll probably hold my nose and vote Romney in the fall, but at least I didn’t have to do it this time....
Voted for Tea Partier Bill Randall as well....
Obama or Romney or Paul, that is the choices. Two of the three are socialists who will bankrupt America, the third is a constitutionalist that will cut $ one trillion first yr in office and balance deficit in three yrs. What flipping else is there to know?
Yes, but that is what results from a winner take all system with no possibility of coalition government. Intentional or not, we have a 2 party system.
Donald Duck is a fictional character.
With as much chance of being president as any 3rd party candidate. In fact, if Donald Duck could be on the ballot he would probably get more votes than any other 3rd party.
I prefer the Duck over Mitt.
Longbow, you’ve been a conservative for a long time. Can you look me in the eye and say, “Mitt Romney is a solid conservative.”?
Yes and vote for Walker in Wisconsin if you’re not voting for Falk in Dem Primary and vote Richard Mourdock for Senate in Indiana
I like Folwell for Lite Governor (revising state government employee pensions and healthcare benefits), Shubert for Auditor (recapture the Highway Fund), Daoud for Secretary of State (crack down on illegals), and Alexander for Super of Public Instruction (vouchers, stop presuming college as universal goal).
From your lips to FReepers eyes...We need to STOP ZERO!! Voting 3rd party will help zero become a MARXIST DICTATOR!!
Of course not. Romney has no record of being a conservative. I don't really know what he is other than a polished politician.
That really isn't the point though. Even if Romney turns out to be the squish we all assume, he still answers to the Republican party and is still vastly better to the Barrack Obama we KNOW we are getting. Federal Court nominations alone are a good enough reason to work night and day to make sure Mitt defeats Obama.
I have no problem with voting pragmatically. My vote is not an affirmative endorsement of anyone, it is simply used to achieve the best option available at the time. That means using it to cancel out an Obama voter in the swing state of Virginia.
First, I apologize for 3 posts, rookie mistake.
As to a clue, the election is important for the Supreme Court, US Attorneys, Judges, cabinet positions, illegal immigration, defense spending, war on terror ...
There are many more, however on each of these Romney is far superior to Obama.
That was my clue