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To: Lazamataz; InterceptPoint; randita
We looked at this in 2010 with InterceptPoint's and Randita's "Key House Races" website. They were forecasting House races based on six "expert" polling groups. I ran probabilistic analysis using the poll data and compared the results with the "expert" assessments of the same races.

One thing to note is that the House race polls were fewer because of how small the districts were and how many of them there were. I don't think the polls themselves were push, but the "experts" were slow to match what the polls were showing.

The following links show my weekly analysis of the House polls. Notice how quickly the polls themselves show a blowout by the GOP (9/11/10) vs. how long it took the experts to reach the same conclusions (10/9/10). Even when the "experts" caught up, they predicted fewer House wins than the people.

My analysis of the results indicated that the experts stayed on the fence much longer than the people, not giving the GOP the race wins until the last possible moment.

My opinion, not necessarily shared by by IP or Randita, was that the experts were intentionally holding back in order to keep the GOP from building up the wave for as long as possible. I likened it back to how the MSM in 2000 was calling states for Gore within minutes of a state closing, even though the race was within 1-2% and only a few precincts had reported, while they held back on calling a state for Bush for 30 minutes or more even though the race was > 5% difference and many precincts had reported.

Link to 2010 People Poll Summary.

Link to 2010 Expert Assessment Summary.


43 posted on 05/09/2012 3:57:11 PM PDT by Political Junkie Too (If you can vote for President, then your children can run for President.)
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To: Political Junkie Too; Clintonfatigued

It’s interesting to revisit that exciting 2010 election season. What a ride that was and what a great outcome. Dick Morris, of all people, was one of the only pundits to see it coming and nobody paid heed to him because so often he’s been totally off base.

This year will be especially dicey for experts because so many districts have been redrawn so historical precedents are more complex to determine.

I don’t expect there to be a huge swing for the House either way. I think it will be pretty much a draw. Democrats may win back a few of the D leaning seats the GOP took last time (perhaps as may as three in IL alone), but there has been some GOP favorable redistricting done in few states, putting several Dems in jeopardy.

The Senate is where the action’s going to be this cycle and where each party is going to put a lot of marbles. If it appears going down the homestretch that Obama’s re-election is in doubt, the battle for the Senate will rise to a fevered pitch because Dems will want to preserve their control of the Senate at any cost.

45 posted on 05/09/2012 6:11:58 PM PDT by randita
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