Skip to comments.Poll: Obama barely holding lead over Romney in Florida
Posted on 05/10/2012 5:21:26 AM PDT by PRePublic
Los Angeles Times - 2 hours ago By Mitchell Landsberg Florida, the state that bequeathed Bush vs. Gore to the American political lexicon, is once again evenly divided in a presidential race, according to a new statewide poll.
(Excerpt) Read more at latimes.com ...
In the 2nd inning of a ballgame, who is up by a run doesn’t matter really.
If it’s the 7th inning, and the opposition is up by a run, I worry, but one run is nothing.
The 9th inning and up by a run really depends on your offense and your pitcher.
We have the GOP-e on offense, and Romney’s the pitcher.
It’s enough to make a true conservative weep.
That was before yesterday.
Don’t believe it is a split any more. Not for a minute.
600 registered voters, 41% dumbocrats, 37% GOP, 23% no party.
Mrs. Prince of Space
The survey of 600 registered Florida voters was conducted by telephone from May 6-8. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
This is a junk poll, designed to fit a predetermined outcome.
That is an absurd breakdown. A state that swept Deomocrats out at every level 18 months ago is give a 4% edge to democrats in the poll. Romney is up in Florida by a large margin based on this data.
Yes, it is.
The Republicans should pay their own house pollster to publish an equivalently absurd poll.
Just curious: why is it that everytime an unfavorable poll is posted, it is immediately disregarded as junk? The only think junk about it is the fact that 6 months is an eternity and who knows what the results will be after Labor Day, debates, etc.?
Also they used registered voters, not likely voters. Given what happened on Tuesday and yesterday afternoon, I bet that Romney has a 15 point lead now in FL.
Whats enough to make a guy weep is the fact that the only thing worse than Robama losing is Robama winning.
I doubt it. I don’t see there being that many single issue voters that are going to base their vote against gay marriage. I think Romney probably gets a small bump, but the issue will likely be inconsequential 6 months from now. With the economy still in the toilet, Israel/Iran, gas prices, and Europe, I really don’t see this election hinging on gay marriage.
My guess is if something was done to stop those damn New York City SNOWBIRDS from voting in the New York AND Flrodai elections, Romey would blow away Obama in FLorida.
But STILL, WHY is this so DAMN CLOSE??? It should be a no-brainer!!!
Honest to god, do only the stupidest New Yorkers move to Florida. I know there are a few good ones, but you have to be stone cold stupid to continue to support Obama at this point.
Beat me by a minute.
The funny thing is all these anti-gay marriage republicans who are ignoring that Romney is solidly on the side of gay marriage and gay unions. He signed the first gay marriage legislation in the country when he could have AT LEAST vetoed it.
And he’s made numerous claims of support for the gay agenda over the years.
Why are they railing against Obama on this?
Ozero is going to lose some of his black support in Fl over that stance. I was with a black dem elected official yesterday and his commentary was quite out of sync with Ozero’s stance on a wide number of issues and that was before he began speaking of the affects of God in his life.
Frankly, I’d rather see this guy in office than some of the RINOs we have now. Many in the black community do not support Ozero’s fag agenda and this may come to hurt him at the polls in Nov. Even if they don’t vote, every non vote for Ozero is a half vote for Rombama.
I have conducted a poll and the “results” are:
How can I get it published?
I’m not pinning my analysis on the gay marriage exclusively. The voting trends on Tuesday, the ecomonic conditions and issues and the skewness of the poll makes me beleive that it is not a dead heat in these battleground states. The MSM wants people to think that way and that is why they did this poll.
Registered voters, not likely voters. Look at the sampling.
This is a junk science poll designed to give the answer the pollster wanted.
Romney is winning in Florida is what this poll really says.
I surveyed our household this morning and 66% planned to vote for Romney. My dog is an adult but expressed no preference of either candidate, even when informed about Obama’s dietary choices. I considered him “undecided”.
obama’s gay announcement should make this rather lopsidedly against him.
Not only in FL, but also, in NC, and even gay Iowa.
Couple that with Walker’s vote-getting in Wisconsin, and all of a sudden, the unstoppable obama looks to be in early trouble for re-election....but we shall see.
A junk poll indeed. “registered voters,” 4 percent margin of error, skewed sample. Yet big news in the L.A. Times.
I think it probably is close right now in this snapshot... it could be very different in September when people are paying attention. I could see it bein a landslide either way or a close race. Romney certainly has the upper hand on gay marriage (assuming the public buys that he is in fact against it), but I don’t know that it is going to really be a burning issue 6 months from now.
If Romney is going to win, it is going to be on the economy. For his sake, I hope he doesn’t have crony capitalism skeletons, and I don’t think he does or it would have come out in the primary. He also needs to keep his distance from Wall Street and focus on Main Street. If he does that, he has a good chance. He is best off ignoring social issues, even the ones he has an advantage on. He has been all over the map throughout his career on social issues and they don’t help him. They will onl remind social consrvatives that he is a Mormon without convictions and will keep more of them at home.
LAT-Obama still has Bush Derangement Syndrome, don't they?
Perhaps not yet, but you fail to acknowledge the very real possibility that radical queers will be out in full force now, demanding that they get instant new rights.
When the liberal freak show is on display in full ‘in your face’ fashion, normal people are going to want no part of voting for the idiot that supports them.
All the queer freaks in radical SanFranSissyCo garb are going to be at all his events and on the evening news.
Oh well, if Romney runs as if he’s behind it will be to the good.
I have no problem with conservatives who flee New York because they can;t stand it anymore (there are more than most people imagine) But the New York libs should be walled up in the Five Boroughs with their offspring until they choak on their own political feces.
They are a pestilence which has destroyed New Jersey, Vermont and Florida and they are working on Pennsylvania and New Hampshire (which also has to deal with similar problems from Boston).
This is true, but Romney’s strength is that he is competant. Like him or hate him, he is a good manager, he is smart, and he comes across as knowlegable, which most reasonable people can admit. His weakness is he has no principles or core convictions and has been all over the map on social issues. Gay marriage highlights his weakness and weakens his strength. The media will use the issue to insult his intelligence and diminish that strength... valid or not.
You are correct that some people reflexively dismiss as “junk” any poll whose results they don’t like, which is obviously a stupid thing to do, since failing to face the truth often leads to defeat. But in this case, this is a poll by Suffolk University (a liberal school, and not exactly Mason-Dixon or Rasmussen in the world of polling) of registered voters (not of likely voters, which would have presented a truer snapshot of the electorate by excluding those unlikely to vote) and with a sample that was 41% Democrat, 37% Republican and 23% other (when Republicans have outnumbered Democrats in recent elections in FL). So there are very good reasons to suspect that this poll’s results were skewed in favor of Obama, and that Romney is actually several points ahead of Obama in FL.
As for the fact that the election is a little less than 6 months away so anything can happen, that is absolutely correct, but it’s still important to know where the electorate stands today.
Historically, these Suffolk polls may well be weak, but this particular poll is not an outlier...
Rasmussen has Florida Romney +1 as opposed to Suffolk with Obama +1. Basically the same result... close race within the margin of error.
Well Obama shot himself in the feet yesterday when he came out for gay marriage.
Rasmussen is much more of a clearer picture.
I think that Zero is catering to his last two groups that support him, unions and the radical gay rights groups. His decision yesterday will turn off more and more blacks to him. His lavish vacations, endless golf games, and now him doubling down on gay rights will deflate black support for him. Remember the half empty arena at Ohio State last Saturday? It will be more and more difficult to fill urban venues from now on. I’m not saying the blacks will vote GOP, they will just stay home. They no longer view Hussien as their own and yesterday’s announcement will cement that position even further.
Please!!!! Give me a break!!! Obama will lose Florida by a huge margin. end of story!!! Obama is leading Romney, just like Charley Crist was leading Marco Rubio. Rubio beat Crist by nearly a million vote margin!!!
But in the end, the ECONOMY will be the BIGGER issue as AWAYS.
Just curious: why is it that everytime an unfavorable poll is posted, it is immediately disregarded as junk?
...human nature...if the preferred candidate were ahead in this poll the same people discrediting it would be touting its infallibility...it’s the way we’re wired, we disregard what doesn’t please us, especially before it truly has any meaning...
...FWIW, polls six months out are completely fluid and unconvincing, and any commentary on their worth is suspect...
You got it. Many blacks are also conservative, church going folks.
Also they used registered voters, not likely voters...
...then I guess you are discounting Qunnipiac’s recent poll of registered voters showing a 1 point Romney lead...
Internals make a poll junk, garbage in garbage out,
Internals make a poll junk, garbage in garbage out,
IMHO because asmuch as 50 percent of the people have no skin in the game. ie. pay no taxes or are on the government dole in one way or another. They don't want a change,
So too in parts of Idaho, Montana and the entire coast of Oregon and Washington. The same socialist wierdo’s who ruined Californication are ruining the best parts of the west.
They are either trust fund artist types or the moocher class that follow the welfare states with the best freebies.
The Dems are trying to take the focus off the economic decline and on ‘social issues.’ They lose either way in my opinion (unless the GOP is more clueless than we know). However, the margin he loses when the economy is the focus is huge!
This loser and his family have been screwing the American public since the day he became a senator. Too bad for America. Luckily once out of office in January the indictments will start coming in and the trials and convictions. Just think the Commander in Chief of the Military convicted of Treason, which I believe that is still a capital crime. I guess the Florida Democrats head office saw ahead to the future when they had a US flag with Obama’s face emblazoned on it hanging from a pole. Never thought I’d see the day a democrat would be the first to hang him. Cool idea though. NObama 2012. Hang in there Obama our hope will be here when you get changed. Depends are hell aren’t they?
If they give the true numbers and shows Obama behind by 10 or more points in most states, the mob will stay home and see it as useless to come vote. They have to keep them thinking he is going to win in a romp. He may anyway, but they got to get them all out to vote, homeless and dead included.
It’s labeled junk because (a) the sampling is biased Dem, (b) it’s registered-voters and not likely voters.
The question on election night is going to be whether Obama loses 48 or 50 states. How Florida goes will be apparent before September.
It will be inaccurate, because usually a higher percentage of Republican registered-voters actually vote than do Dem voters, even allowing for all the urban vote fraud.
I got to watch transplants from the NE and thier illegal alien servitors ruin Virginia when I lived there. It was horrifying to watch the slow, gracious charm we enjoyed in the 1990s become the frantic, crowded jostle of the late 2000s. Northern VA is reliably Dem now, and nearly as mean as Bsltimore.