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Dick Morris: Romney Should Win in a Landslide
Real Clear Politics ^ | 05/11/2012 | Dick Morris

Posted on 05/11/2012 8:12:06 AM PDT by SeekAndFind

If the election were held today, Mitt Romney would win by a landslide.

The published polls reflect a close race for two reasons:

1. They poll only registered voters, not likely voters. Rasmussen is the only pollster who tests likely voters, and his latest tracking poll has Romney ahead by 48-43.

2. As discussed in previous columns, a study of the undecided voters in the past eight elections in which incumbents sought a second term as president reveals that only Bush-43 gained any of the undecided vote. Johnson in ’64, Nixon in ’72, Ford in ’76, Carter in ’80, Reagan in ’84, Bush in ’92 and Clinton in ’96 all failed to pick up a single undecided vote.

So when polls show President Obama at 45 percent of the vote, they are really reflecting a likely 55-45 Romney victory, at the very least.

Gallup has amassed over 150,000 interviews over all of 2011 and compared them with a like number in 2010. It finds that Obama has a better than 50 percent job approval in only 10 states and the District of Columbia. And his approval has dropped in almost every single state. Even in California, it has fallen from 55 percent in 2010 to 
50.5 percent in 2011.

Over the period of May 4-6, I completed a poll of 400 likely voters in Michigan and found Romney leading by 45-43! And Michigan is one of the most pro-Democrat of the swing states.

I also found that Obama’s personal favorability, which has usually run about 10 to 20 points higher than his job approval, is now equal to his job rating. In Michigan, his personal favorability among likely voters is 47-47, while his job rating is 50-48. Romney’s favorability is 49-42.

(Excerpt) Read more at realclearpolitics.com ...


TOPICS: Culture/Society; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: landslide; obama; romney
How accurate has Dick Morris been lately?

I know that he was Clinton's personal pollster, but how good was he?

1 posted on 05/11/2012 8:12:07 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
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To: SeekAndFind

And the Chicago Bulls Should have beaten the Sixers.


2 posted on 05/11/2012 8:12:53 AM PDT by dfwgator (Don't wake up in a roadside ditch. Get rid of Romney.)
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To: SeekAndFind

Romney also “should” win in a a landslide because Obama is a God-awful leftist disaster.


3 posted on 05/11/2012 8:13:28 AM PDT by Williams (Nobama)
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To: SeekAndFind
Morris is ALWAYS wrong. ALWAYS. Wish he wasn't.

He predicted a 100 seat gain in the House and takeover of the Senate in '10.

4 posted on 05/11/2012 8:14:50 AM PDT by NE Cons
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To: SeekAndFind

Good question... I’d like to see Morris’s correct/incorrect percentage before putting credence in any of his predictions.


5 posted on 05/11/2012 8:15:01 AM PDT by ScottinVA (Buying Drain-O requires photo I.D... so should voting!)
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To: SeekAndFind

I think one would win if you placed bets opposite of Morris’s predictions.


6 posted on 05/11/2012 8:15:18 AM PDT by C19fan
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To: C19fan

Morris is the Beano Cook for political prognosticators.


7 posted on 05/11/2012 8:16:03 AM PDT by dfwgator (Don't wake up in a roadside ditch. Get rid of Romney.)
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To: SeekAndFind

They said Jerry Cooney SHOULD beat the Champ Larry Holmes in June of ‘82, because Cooney had the ‘big bat’.

Of course 0bama wouldn’t even count for a speck of fecal matter in Holmes shorts, but Romney IS the political equivalent of Cooney.


8 posted on 05/11/2012 8:19:50 AM PDT by mkjessup (Romney is to conservatism what Helen Thomas is to a high fashion model walkway.)
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To: SeekAndFind
I think he's right about Romney or anyone else winning in a landslide against obama.

At this point, I have not heard a reason to vote for either, but Romney won't need my vote or support to beat obama.

My sense is, the October Surprise this election will go against obama and the DNC in a major way. They're done.

People were fed up almost from the beginning and now those who aren't simply fed up are downright frightened.

9 posted on 05/11/2012 8:21:09 AM PDT by GBA (Isaiah 9:11)
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To: SeekAndFind
My wife got a call from an Obama pollster yesterday asking her how likely she was to vote for him this year. She replied "no way" and said the pollster was shocked at her frank response.

I told her she should have replied "undecided" so they would keep calling back.

10 posted on 05/11/2012 8:24:15 AM PDT by Vigilanteman (Obama: Fake black man. Fake Messiah. Fake American. How many fakes can you fit in one Zer0?)
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To: SeekAndFind

The guy is consistently wrong, and yet people still ask him. Not sure how that works.

This is the worst news I’ve seen in a while. If I were in the Obama camp, this would make me happy.


11 posted on 05/11/2012 8:24:59 AM PDT by brownsfan (Aldous Huxley and Mike Judge were right.)
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To: SeekAndFind

He makes some good points, but Dick Morris’ main job is to sell Dick Morris. And the biggest customer for Dick Morris is FOX News.

It doesn’t mean he’s wrong.


12 posted on 05/11/2012 8:26:04 AM PDT by kidd
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To: GBA
It should be a landslide. There are more of US than the George Clown, George Soro’s Hollywood elitist!

If we can't beat Obama, it will have been rigged or we have stupid people who should not be allowed to vote...... FROM THE GRAVE!

13 posted on 05/11/2012 8:26:35 AM PDT by JFC
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To: SeekAndFind

Dick Morris is right less often than a broken clock.....


14 posted on 05/11/2012 8:27:18 AM PDT by Donkey Odious (I can explain it to you. I can't understand it for you.)
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To: SeekAndFind
I'd love to be a political pundit on cable news.

I could spend my life making incorrect & misguided predictions & suffer no ill effects as the news channels will keep asking me back.

What a gig!

15 posted on 05/11/2012 8:27:59 AM PDT by gdani
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To: SeekAndFind

This from the guy who was certain the 2008 race would between Hillary and Condi.

[If anyone else said it, I might believe. From Morris? He is about as accurate in his predictions as Jean Dixon was.]


16 posted on 05/11/2012 8:33:23 AM PDT by TomGuy
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To: Donkey Odious

More like a broken digital clock!


17 posted on 05/11/2012 8:37:40 AM PDT by US_MilitaryRules (Unnngh! To many PDS people!)
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To: JFC

The fact that obama needs Hollywood and music industry stars to prop him up speaks volumes. In ‘08, the only reason he drew crowds was because he had idiots like Springsteen and Stevie Wonder doing free concerts.


18 posted on 05/11/2012 8:38:47 AM PDT by jersey117
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To: SeekAndFind

I remember when he predicted Hillary vs Condi Rice for presidential race in 2008.


19 posted on 05/11/2012 8:40:36 AM PDT by dartuser ("If you are ... what you were ... then you're not.")
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To: SeekAndFind

Given Morris’ track record, this is pretty much the kiss of death for the Romney campaign.


20 posted on 05/11/2012 8:46:29 AM PDT by eclecticEel (Life, Liberty, and the Pursuit of Happiness: 7/4/1776 - 3/21/2010)
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To: SeekAndFind

America deserves a blowout, Willard doesn’t.


21 posted on 05/11/2012 8:49:37 AM PDT by Sybeck1 (If Romney needs my vote to win Mississippi, he is in a heck of a lot trouble more than me.)
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To: GBA

Morris must think a real conservative is running and not the jerk Romney who is.


22 posted on 05/11/2012 9:26:51 AM PDT by napscoordinator (VOTE FOR NEWT!!!!)
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To: napscoordinator

I don’t like Willard.

But a cons friend of mine explained that he’s much closer to our side than the anti-American fraud currently occupying the WH. So I have to vote for him if he’s the R nom.


23 posted on 05/11/2012 9:35:19 AM PDT by bicyclerepair ( REPLACE D-W-S ! http://www.karenforcongress.com)
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To: NE Cons
NE Cons
Since May 7, 2012

Welcome to FR.

Morris is ALWAYS wrong. ALWAYS.
His prediction for the House - "The GOP will capture the House by a goodly margin, winning upward of 60-plus seats..."
And how many seats did the GOP pickup? Sixty three.
While Morris did incorrectly predict a Senate take over by the GOP, he isn't ALWAYS wrong ... and I also agree with him ... 0bama loses in a landslide.
24 posted on 05/11/2012 9:43:00 AM PDT by oh8eleven (RVN '67-'68)
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To: oh8eleven
What does my start date have to do with it? Like I have less cred? Can't you argue on other things?

Anyone here that has followed Morris knows he's been notoriously wrong. And he HAS

25 posted on 05/11/2012 9:44:44 AM PDT by NE Cons
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To: SeekAndFind
How accurate has Dick Morris been lately?

Not terribly. He tends to exaggerate his points. I wouldn't dismiss what he says but I would want others confirming it.

26 posted on 05/11/2012 9:45:08 AM PDT by OrangeHoof (Evil never reveals the truth until it's too late to flee.)
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To: oh8eleven
He predicted over 100 House seats, not 60

He predicted a Senate takeover.

27 posted on 05/11/2012 9:45:56 AM PDT by NE Cons
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To: oh8eleven

Look at the other replies on this thread. Similar to what I said


28 posted on 05/11/2012 9:47:14 AM PDT by NE Cons
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To: TomGuy
This from the guy who was certain the 2008 race would between Hillary and Condi.

I thought it was Hillary and Giuliani, which actually was the pre-Iowa conventional wisdom from inside the Beltway in '08.

29 posted on 05/11/2012 9:49:57 AM PDT by OrangeHoof (Evil never reveals the truth until it's too late to flee.)
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To: SeekAndFind

Morris knows how to read polls.

Where he goes wrong is when he extends himself to conjecture far afield from that. (E.g, Hillary vs. Condi in 2008)


30 posted on 05/11/2012 9:51:31 AM PDT by 9YearLurker
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To: oh8eleven
Check this out. Morris prediction '10 elections.

http://www.google.com/url?q=http://www.youtube.com/watch%3Fv%3DWuwntAwL9Ik&sa=U&ei=C0OtT9_fLcLM6QGBkL3-DA&ved=0CCIQtwIwBg&usg=AFQjCNE1reue6O6JnTs7kWjODXeG_RzI9A

He also predicted Trump would run...

Predicted Condi vs. Hillary for Pres in '08. I could go on an on.

31 posted on 05/11/2012 9:54:56 AM PDT by NE Cons
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To: oh8eleven

My gosh, man - GET A GRIP!!

Don’t you know where you are? This is FreeRepublic: you cannot seriously suggest here that there might be any future ahead for Romney. We’re talking Romney - you know, ROMNEY! What, are you a troll, delusional, a cretin, or some sort of anti-American subversive?

Get with the program, fellow. If some pundit suggests Romney may have a chance, or - Heaven forbid - might have a good quality or two, that pundit must be smeared. MUST BE SMEARED! Get it?

Sheesh!

/s


32 posted on 05/11/2012 10:28:42 AM PDT by dagogo redux (A whiff of primitive spirits in the air, harbingers of an impending descent into the feral.)
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To: OrangeHoof
I thought it was Hillary and Giuliani, which actually was the pre-Iowa conventional wisdom from inside the Beltway in '08.

Unfortunately, it was Hillary and Condi. He actually wrote a book about it: Condi Vs. Hillary: The Next Great Presidential Race

I wish Morris was right on this. I think Romney's gonna win but I don't see a landslide happening. It's going to be a nail-biter.

33 posted on 05/11/2012 10:29:59 AM PDT by Drew68 (I WILL vote to defeat Barack Hussein Obama!)
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To: NE Cons
His actual prediction was we would take 60 to 80 seats, but it could go as high as 100.

I think claiming he prediced 100 seats is a stretch.

34 posted on 05/11/2012 10:39:35 AM PDT by CharacterCounts (A vote for the lesser of two evils only insures the triumph of evil.)
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To: CharacterCounts

What’s the difference? On Hannity, he actually said 100.


35 posted on 05/11/2012 10:46:17 AM PDT by NE Cons
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To: SeekAndFind

Uh oh.


36 posted on 05/11/2012 10:50:23 AM PDT by Cyber Liberty (Obama considers the Third World morally superior to the United States.)
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To: NE Cons
What’s the difference?

Everyone else was predicting 35 to 40. I think he was actually the most accurate.

37 posted on 05/11/2012 10:59:25 AM PDT by CharacterCounts (A vote for the lesser of two evils only insures the triumph of evil.)
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To: SeekAndFind

Coulda, Shoulda, Woulda.


38 posted on 05/11/2012 11:06:02 AM PDT by Wordkraft (Remember who the Collaborators are.)
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To: CharacterCounts

OK, fair point. Thanks. But he’s been way wrong on so many other predictions. Wish he was right.


39 posted on 05/11/2012 11:19:34 AM PDT by NE Cons
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To: SeekAndFind

He was VERY wrong about the Senate in the 2010 election, but anyway Dick, shut up—why fire up THEIR base with this idiocy?


40 posted on 05/11/2012 11:23:16 AM PDT by Pharmboy (Democrats lie because they must.)
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To: dagogo redux

Right on, right on, right on.


41 posted on 05/11/2012 11:51:27 AM PDT by oh8eleven (RVN '67-'68)
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To: NE Cons
Can the histrionics Nancy.
Take this as directed and come back in 20 years or so when you grow up.

42 posted on 05/11/2012 11:58:08 AM PDT by oh8eleven (RVN '67-'68)
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To: oh8eleven

You’re a moron. Everyone says the same thing here, so you look foolish


43 posted on 05/11/2012 12:01:48 PM PDT by NE Cons
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