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Romney to Win Undecideds (Romney Creaming Obama 51-42 in Nationwide Poll)
The Hill ^ | Tuesday, May 15, 2012 | Dick Morris

Posted on 05/16/2012 5:35:58 PM PDT by kristinn

From May 5-11, 2012, I conducted a survey of 6,000 likely voters. On such a mammoth sample, the margin of error is less than 1 percent. I found that Romney has amassed a sizable lead over Obama of 51-42, far in excess of what published polling and surveys of registered — as opposed to likely — voters are indicating.

If Romney were to win 51 percent of the vote, the election would, of course, be very close. But if he could hold Obama to 42 percent, it would be a landslide. So the obvious question is how Romney should go about winning the voters in between.

To answer this question, I drilled down in my sample to these undecided voters, none of whom voted for Romney in the survey. I added to their ranks those who voted for Obama but indicated that they only “somewhat” approved of his performance in office. This left me with a sample of 1,500 likely voters who are in play. The data in this column reflects their views. If Romney can win a quarter or a third of their votes, he will win by a landslide margin of 10 points.

On the economy, 46 percent of these swing voters do not believe that there is any recovery. Twenty-three percent say the economy is the same as when Obama took office and an additional 23 percent say it is worse. Thirty-nine percent say the jobs situation has not improved. Twenty-five percent say it is the same and 14 percent say it is worse. And 37 percent agree with the statement that “if we look around, there isn’t real evidence that we are actually making progress.”

Specifically, swing voters do not believe that the unemployment rate drop Obama heralds is real.

(Excerpt) Read more at thehill.com ...


TOPICS: News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2012polls; 2012swingvote; 2012undecideds; dickmorris; obama; polls; romney
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Dick Morris spoke about this on tonight's O'Reilly Factor where he said the margin was 52-42. He said they were phone interviews, which I take to mean not robocalls, that covered voters in the entire nation. Getting 6,000 likely voters to take a survey in one week is labor intensive. Someone paid Morris good money for this one.

No wonder Obama's campaign is already in panic mode. Romney hasn't closed the sale yet, but Obama is being soundly rejected by voters six months out from the election with no good economic news on the horizon to save the day.

1 posted on 05/16/2012 5:36:00 PM PDT by kristinn
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To: kristinn

The sad thing is, if elected, Romney won’t fix Social Security, lower the debt limit, cut useless departments like DHS, EPA and the DOEs . He won’t undo homos in the military, or the federal land grab.

He won’t eliminate capital gains, either. If any of these are proposed by a conservative congress, he’ll fight them.

Romney will kick the can down the road like every other liberal.

Just my 2 cents.


2 posted on 05/16/2012 5:43:10 PM PDT by PhiloBedo (You gotta roll with the punches and get with what's real.)
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To: kristinn
Photobucket Born to lose!
3 posted on 05/16/2012 5:43:32 PM PDT by mandaladon (PalinGenesis)
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To: kristinn

The only ones saying that Barry is creaming Romney is FOX news. I don’t know who those morons are polling but it sure as hell isn’t Americans.


4 posted on 05/16/2012 5:44:53 PM PDT by FlingWingFlyer (Dumb, dependent and Democrat is no way to go through life. - Rep. Louie Gohmert (R-Texas)
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To: kristinn

More important than voter reaction is what is happening on the national stage. Obama is imploding. His budget was unanimously rejected by both houses. He’s gone public on supporting gay marriages and repeal of DOMA, which, not surprisingly, is proving to be political suicide. As he implodes, his base is panicking. He’s done. Stick a fork in him. Even Romney can beat him.


5 posted on 05/16/2012 5:45:01 PM PDT by Eleutheria5 (End the occupation. Annex today.)
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To: kristinn
Photobucket

Well, answering such a poll can be a bit confusing for even the most politically minded "undecideds".

6 posted on 05/16/2012 5:53:38 PM PDT by EGPWS (Trust in God, question everyone else)
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To: Eleutheria5
Even Romney can beat him.

I'll vote ABO in November if it comes to that, but in the mean time I'll look into alternatives.

7 posted on 05/16/2012 5:54:25 PM PDT by TwelveOfTwenty (With choices like Palin, Cain, and Bachmann, what could go wrong? Now we know.)
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To: kristinn

I think they are still going to use that Electoral College system this year...


8 posted on 05/16/2012 5:56:19 PM PDT by aMorePerfectUnion ("I'm comfortable with a Romney win." - Pres. Jimmy Carter)
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To: kristinn
Romney to Win Undecideds (Romney Creaming Obama 51-42 in Nationwide Poll)

Racists!

OK so much for MSM, universities, and Hollywood analysis.

9 posted on 05/16/2012 5:57:21 PM PDT by WilliamofCarmichael (If modern America's Man on Horseback is out there, Get on the damn horse already!)
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To: FlingWingFlyer; Clintonfatigued; Impy; randita; no dems; fieldmarshaldj; AuH2ORepublican; Sun; ...

I actually turned FNC on and saw that - WTH?

Are they polling in the English language?


10 posted on 05/16/2012 6:04:45 PM PDT by GOPsterinMA (The stench of Earth Pimp-age is permeating over the internet...)
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To: aMorePerfectUnion

Yes, and Morris pointed out to O’Reilly that Romney will lose California and New York.


11 posted on 05/16/2012 6:09:57 PM PDT by kristinn (Dump the Chump in 2012)
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To: GOPsterinMA

The ONLY show on FNC worth a crap is Redeye.


12 posted on 05/16/2012 6:11:12 PM PDT by bicyclerepair ( REPLACE D-W-S ! http://www.karenforcongress.com)
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To: kristinn
Romney will lose California and New York.

I don't believe ANY Republican could win in those states and Illinois.

I don't think Reagan could win in California as it is constituted today (with the swarm of illegals).

13 posted on 05/16/2012 6:13:17 PM PDT by nascarnation
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To: bicyclerepair

I’ve never seen that.

I offer that the only Fox “news” channel that’s good is FBN.


14 posted on 05/16/2012 6:14:00 PM PDT by GOPsterinMA (The stench of Earth Pimp-age is permeating over the internet...)
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To: kristinn
“with no good economic news on the horizon to save the day”

Commie Obammie will manufacture the economic data “in a nick of time”

We need DIRT, we need the truth about his College years.

15 posted on 05/16/2012 6:15:32 PM PDT by DAC21
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To: kristinn
“with no good economic news on the horizon to save the day”

Commie Obammie will manufacture the economic data “in a nick of time”

We need DIRT, we need the truth about his College years.

16 posted on 05/16/2012 6:15:51 PM PDT by DAC21
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To: kristinn

I predict Obama will win Hi, Il, and Ca. After that, all blue states are a toss up.


17 posted on 05/16/2012 6:20:02 PM PDT by Jet Jaguar
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To: All

The Fox News poll is Crap. There, I’ve said it. (In my best Mark Levin Voice).


18 posted on 05/16/2012 6:24:18 PM PDT by Signalman ( November, 2012-The End of an Error)
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To: GOPsterinMA; kristinn

I’m confused by whiplash.

Got a post on the FAUX Wednesday polling that puts Obamao “UP” by 7, and now Morris, on FAUX, stands by Romney at the 51-42 proposal. Yikes.

This is the reason why Rasmussen is reliable, who poll only “likely voters”.


19 posted on 05/16/2012 6:25:23 PM PDT by RitaOK (ABR & ABO Few are unafraid, but I thank God for the few. We are the resistance.)
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To: WilliamofCarmichael

20 posted on 05/16/2012 6:25:52 PM PDT by catnipman (Cat Nipman: Vote Republican in 2012 and only be called racist one more time!)
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To: Jet Jaguar
I predict Obama will win Hi, Il, and Ca. After that, all blue states are a toss up.

I agree, although I would add RI to your list. I'm thinking that even MA might go for Romney as he was the Governor (state pride and all that).
21 posted on 05/16/2012 6:27:12 PM PDT by Signalman ( November, 2012-The End of an Error)
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To: kristinn

Give me a break (not you, personally, but those behind this poll) ...

The campaign hasn’t really started in earnest and there’s over five months to go to the election. Obama is going to hit Mittens with every dirty trick in the book and turn the campaign into a Saul Alinsky “fix/personalize/polarize” wet dream ... and when Romney’s numbers start dropping from the baseline (this poll), the MSM will play it up as a massive shift of momentum in Obama’s favor.

The only publicly-revealed polls that I ever have even one iota of “trust” in are the ones right before the election, because those are the ones the polling firms KNOW have to be accurate so they can play themselves up to potential clients as correctly predicting the election. All the polls leading into those are just used to push public opinion in one direction or another (at the end, enough voters tend to like to support the winner to throw the election to the eventual victor).


22 posted on 05/16/2012 6:28:08 PM PDT by tanknetter
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To: kristinn; AuH2ORepublican; Impy; GOPsterinMA; randita; Sun; LdSentinal; ExTexasRedhead; ...

Dick Morris is not a neutral source (he’s highly critical of Obama), but this poll must have been expensive and I can’t imagine that he’d pay a pollster to lie to him.

It’s a good sign.


23 posted on 05/16/2012 6:31:56 PM PDT by Clintonfatigued (Obama and Company lied, the American economy died)
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To: RitaOK; kristinn

“This is the reason why Rasmussen is reliable, who poll only “likely voters”.”

Personally, I think PPP (even though they lean left) are a bit better than Rasmussen.


24 posted on 05/16/2012 6:32:08 PM PDT by GOPsterinMA (The stench of Earth Pimp-age is permeating over the internet...)
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To: GOPsterinMA

I think they just polled everybody that works at Fox.


25 posted on 05/16/2012 6:35:07 PM PDT by abigailsmybaby ("To understan' the livin', you got ta commune wit' da dead." Minerva)
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To: abigailsmybaby

Then the poll makes sense...did Shep Smith vote multiple times? :)


26 posted on 05/16/2012 6:36:58 PM PDT by GOPsterinMA (The stench of Earth Pimp-age is permeating over the internet...)
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To: kristinn

It’s the economy, stupid.

Carville is evil but he really understood the impact of a bad economy on voters. And Daddy Bush’s economy was nothing compared to this. The 1991 recession was a blip. We are in a full blown economic depression. Wait until Greece pulls out of the Eurozone.

Obama is a one term wonder. That is why it was SO CRITICAL for us to run a pure unadulterated conservative. The GOP is a lock to win. The FLAMING IDIOTIC GOP leaders didn’t need to concede anything this election because Obama loses by default.


27 posted on 05/16/2012 6:41:41 PM PDT by Freedom_Is_Not_Free (REPEAL OBAMACARE. Nothing else matters.)
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To: PhiloBedo

President Bush tried to fix social security by giving the younger people the choice to invest and those close to retirement to go with SS. He was ridiculed by the left and by some Freepers in here. A president can only do what congress allows him to do, or are you that ignorant?


28 posted on 05/16/2012 6:44:24 PM PDT by Kaslin (Acronym for OBAMA: One Big Ass Mistake America)
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To: GOPsterinMA

At least 50x I’m sure. He’s a little undecided tho, so 30 for 0 and 20 for Romney.


29 posted on 05/16/2012 6:48:12 PM PDT by abigailsmybaby ("To understan' the livin', you got ta commune wit' da dead." Minerva)
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To: Signalman; Impy; randita; Clintonfatigued; AuH2ORepublican; GSP.FAN
“I agree, although I would add RI to your list. I'm thinking that even MA might go for Romney as he was the Governor (state pride and all that).”

I like your enthusiasm, but:

RI typically votes an even higher percentage for the Rat in POTUS elections than MA does. RI going GOP would constitute a miracle of considerable size and scope.

Onto MA. I doubt that Romney wins outright. HOWEVER, if he keeps the margin with 7% or so, the election turns out to be a HUGE blowout nationally for Romney...I'm thinking 325+ EV’s. MA hasn't gone GOP since RR in 1984 and the margins of victory for the Rat have been ~25% every election since. Romney keeping it under 10% would be great and like I wrote, if the margin is 7% or less, this election is over by 8:40 pm.

30 posted on 05/16/2012 6:49:12 PM PDT by GOPsterinMA (The stench of Earth Pimp-age is permeating over the internet...)
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To: abigailsmybaby; Clintonfatigued; RitaOK; Impy
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I really don't like Shep. To me, he's unlikeable. Throw in his overt leftiness and WTH is he doing on Fox?

I'd rather listen to Juan Williams. I could go for a beer with him (as long as he's paying). Shep, OTOH, no way.

31 posted on 05/16/2012 6:52:32 PM PDT by GOPsterinMA (The stench of Earth Pimp-age is permeating over the internet...)
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To: Signalman

“I’m thinking that even MA might go for Romney as he was the Governor (state pride and all that).”

Not a chance.


32 posted on 05/16/2012 6:53:25 PM PDT by ought-six ( Multiculturalism is national suicide, and political correctness is the cyanide capsule.)
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To: FlingWingFlyer

Fox News uses registered voters instead of likely voters which is more accurate the registered voters


33 posted on 05/16/2012 6:55:27 PM PDT by Kaslin (Acronym for OBAMA: One Big Ass Mistake America)
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To: GOPsterinMA

I don’t like him any more. And lately he seems like he’s about to have a nervous breakdown or something.

His hatred of Newt Gingrich is on the psycho level.


34 posted on 05/16/2012 6:58:41 PM PDT by abigailsmybaby ("To understan' the livin', you got ta commune wit' da dead." Minerva)
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To: Kaslin

I guess you didn’t read the 2nd paragraph.


35 posted on 05/16/2012 7:03:08 PM PDT by PhiloBedo (You gotta roll with the punches and get with what's real.)
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To: abigailsmybaby

I never did like him.

“His hatred of Newt Gingrich is on the psycho level.”

Really? Well, being a Newt-backer, “FU Shepard!”


36 posted on 05/16/2012 7:03:57 PM PDT by GOPsterinMA (The stench of Earth Pimp-age is permeating over the internet...)
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To: FlingWingFlyer

Morris has had a slobbering crush on Mittens for months now..
You’d think...Oh never mind.

I wouldn’t put one thin dime on anything the Toe Sucker says.
He is obviously being paid by the Romney machine...ie Fox news.


37 posted on 05/16/2012 7:05:23 PM PDT by Mountain Mary (One Nation Under God..."There I said it" ... Great One...)
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To: All
The Fox News Poll is conducted under the joint direction of Anderson Robbins Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R).

Results from Fox News polls before February 2011 were conducted by Opinion Dynamics Corp.

Fox News poll: Presidential race

38 posted on 05/16/2012 7:18:52 PM PDT by Kaslin (Acronym for OBAMA: One Big Ass Mistake America)
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To: GOPsterinMA

Forget 7%, if Romney keeps Obama’s margin under 14% in MA he’ll almost certainly get 325+ EVs (and would definitely carry NH and the ME-02).


39 posted on 05/16/2012 7:24:47 PM PDT by AuH2ORepublican (If a politician won't protect innocent babies, what makes you think that he'll protect your rights?)
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To: aMorePerfectUnion
"I think they are still going to use that Electoral College system this year..."

Heh. Well put. However, similar to an answer I provided last week, PV overtakes EV at a tipping point. If the election were held today, a 51-42 PV for Mittens translates into an electoral landslide without regard to state-by-state polling -- the red states simply don't have enough voters to electorally account for such a robust defeat of Bobo; i.e., Mittens would pick up many Blue states if that many Democrats sat on their hands at 42.

Not unironically, something like the 50-41 Reagan-Carter PV*, albeit electorally it would be a bit closer than that 489-49 EV thrashing. More like 360-178, which is probably Mitten's upper limit, picking up outlier states like Maine, etc.

40 posted on 05/16/2012 7:28:24 PM PDT by StAnDeliver (*Note: In no way am I comparing Mittens to Reagan, merely the '80 PV scenario to the present-day)
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To: GOPsterinMA

Oh, please. Deliver me too, from Sheherd On-The-Bridge-Katrina-Smith!

I so agree with you on Juan too! He is the most non-threatening liberal among the media hats, who sometimes seems to serve in the role only to draw the paycheck. I actually like Juan, whose son is a Republican!

(Don’t know if the son is still an (R), but he has been for some time.)


41 posted on 05/16/2012 7:28:55 PM PDT by RitaOK (ABR & ABO Few are unafraid, but I thank God for the few. We are the resistance.)
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To: PhiloBedo

Second paragraph of what? The article or your post#2 to which I replied when you said that Romney won’t do anything to fix Social Security


42 posted on 05/16/2012 7:44:43 PM PDT by Kaslin (Acronym for OBAMA: One Big Ass Mistake America)
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To: kristinn

I despise Rodney, but I will crawl through glass on election day to vote for him.


43 posted on 05/16/2012 7:48:28 PM PDT by E. Pluribus Unum (Do I really need a sarcasm tag? Seriously? You're that dense?)
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To: kristinn
Specifically, swing voters do not believe that the unemployment rate drop Obama heralds is real.

People are losing faith in Obama, democrats and the MSM... liberal's lies are coming home to roost...

44 posted on 05/16/2012 7:50:45 PM PDT by GOPJ ( "A Dog In Every Pot" - freeper ETL)
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To: Kaslin

...and that “even if a conservative congress makes the proposals, Romney will fight them”.

I think you are being deliberately obtuse. Are you a Romneybot, or just a neo-con new world order guy?


45 posted on 05/16/2012 7:55:47 PM PDT by PhiloBedo (You gotta roll with the punches and get with what's real.)
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To: kristinn

Go Barak!!! I can’t really make myself cheer for Romney, but the thought of Obama leaving makes me smile.


46 posted on 05/16/2012 8:01:32 PM PDT by freedomfiter2 (Brutal acts of commission and yawning acts of omission both strengthen the hand of the devil.)
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To: freedomfiter2

I can’t wait to see all of the fags crying like little girls on November 8, if Obama loses....that alone would be worth the price of admission.


47 posted on 05/16/2012 8:02:31 PM PDT by dfwgator
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To: GOPsterinMA

That was exactly my sentiments too the day he sorta went off the deep end just because Romney said something positive about Newt being part of his campaign.


48 posted on 05/16/2012 8:03:40 PM PDT by abigailsmybaby ("To understan' the livin', you got ta commune wit' da dead." Minerva)
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To: catnipman

49 posted on 05/16/2012 8:16:28 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet (Ich habe keinen Konig aber Gott)
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To: GOPsterinMA

But, but, Shep is from Mississippi...surely he’s a conservative...uuuuhhhh, he’s not...who knew?


50 posted on 05/16/2012 8:23:27 PM PDT by jennings2004 (President Hayes, Mount Rushmore, telephone, Dear Leader...what a mix!)
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