Posted on 05/16/2012 5:35:58 PM PDT by kristinn
From May 5-11, 2012, I conducted a survey of 6,000 likely voters. On such a mammoth sample, the margin of error is less than 1 percent. I found that Romney has amassed a sizable lead over Obama of 51-42, far in excess of what published polling and surveys of registered — as opposed to likely — voters are indicating.
If Romney were to win 51 percent of the vote, the election would, of course, be very close. But if he could hold Obama to 42 percent, it would be a landslide. So the obvious question is how Romney should go about winning the voters in between.
To answer this question, I drilled down in my sample to these undecided voters, none of whom voted for Romney in the survey. I added to their ranks those who voted for Obama but indicated that they only “somewhat” approved of his performance in office. This left me with a sample of 1,500 likely voters who are in play. The data in this column reflects their views. If Romney can win a quarter or a third of their votes, he will win by a landslide margin of 10 points.
On the economy, 46 percent of these swing voters do not believe that there is any recovery. Twenty-three percent say the economy is the same as when Obama took office and an additional 23 percent say it is worse. Thirty-nine percent say the jobs situation has not improved. Twenty-five percent say it is the same and 14 percent say it is worse. And 37 percent agree with the statement that “if we look around, there isn’t real evidence that we are actually making progress.”
Specifically, swing voters do not believe that the unemployment rate drop Obama heralds is real.
(Excerpt) Read more at thehill.com ...
Give me a break (not you, personally, but those behind this poll) ...
The campaign hasn’t really started in earnest and there’s over five months to go to the election. Obama is going to hit Mittens with every dirty trick in the book and turn the campaign into a Saul Alinsky “fix/personalize/polarize” wet dream ... and when Romney’s numbers start dropping from the baseline (this poll), the MSM will play it up as a massive shift of momentum in Obama’s favor.
The only publicly-revealed polls that I ever have even one iota of “trust” in are the ones right before the election, because those are the ones the polling firms KNOW have to be accurate so they can play themselves up to potential clients as correctly predicting the election. All the polls leading into those are just used to push public opinion in one direction or another (at the end, enough voters tend to like to support the winner to throw the election to the eventual victor).
Dick Morris is not a neutral source (he’s highly critical of Obama), but this poll must have been expensive and I can’t imagine that he’d pay a pollster to lie to him.
It’s a good sign.
“This is the reason why Rasmussen is reliable, who poll only “likely voters”.”
Personally, I think PPP (even though they lean left) are a bit better than Rasmussen.
I think they just polled everybody that works at Fox.
Then the poll makes sense...did Shep Smith vote multiple times? :)
It’s the economy, stupid.
Carville is evil but he really understood the impact of a bad economy on voters. And Daddy Bush’s economy was nothing compared to this. The 1991 recession was a blip. We are in a full blown economic depression. Wait until Greece pulls out of the Eurozone.
Obama is a one term wonder. That is why it was SO CRITICAL for us to run a pure unadulterated conservative. The GOP is a lock to win. The FLAMING IDIOTIC GOP leaders didn’t need to concede anything this election because Obama loses by default.
President Bush tried to fix social security by giving the younger people the choice to invest and those close to retirement to go with SS. He was ridiculed by the left and by some Freepers in here. A president can only do what congress allows him to do, or are you that ignorant?
At least 50x I’m sure. He’s a little undecided tho, so 30 for 0 and 20 for Romney.
I like your enthusiasm, but:
RI typically votes an even higher percentage for the Rat in POTUS elections than MA does. RI going GOP would constitute a miracle of considerable size and scope.
Onto MA. I doubt that Romney wins outright. HOWEVER, if he keeps the margin with 7% or so, the election turns out to be a HUGE blowout nationally for Romney...I'm thinking 325+ EV’s. MA hasn't gone GOP since RR in 1984 and the margins of victory for the Rat have been ~25% every election since. Romney keeping it under 10% would be great and like I wrote, if the margin is 7% or less, this election is over by 8:40 pm.
I really don't like Shep. To me, he's unlikeable. Throw in his overt leftiness and WTH is he doing on Fox?
I'd rather listen to Juan Williams. I could go for a beer with him (as long as he's paying). Shep, OTOH, no way.
“I’m thinking that even MA might go for Romney as he was the Governor (state pride and all that).”
Not a chance.
Fox News uses registered voters instead of likely voters which is more accurate the registered voters
I don’t like him any more. And lately he seems like he’s about to have a nervous breakdown or something.
His hatred of Newt Gingrich is on the psycho level.
I guess you didn’t read the 2nd paragraph.
I never did like him.
“His hatred of Newt Gingrich is on the psycho level.”
Really? Well, being a Newt-backer, “FU Shepard!”
Morris has had a slobbering crush on Mittens for months now..
You’d think...Oh never mind.
I wouldn’t put one thin dime on anything the Toe Sucker says.
He is obviously being paid by the Romney machine...ie Fox news.
Results from Fox News polls before February 2011 were conducted by Opinion Dynamics Corp.
Forget 7%, if Romney keeps Obama’s margin under 14% in MA he’ll almost certainly get 325+ EVs (and would definitely carry NH and the ME-02).
Heh. Well put. However, similar to an answer I provided last week, PV overtakes EV at a tipping point. If the election were held today, a 51-42 PV for Mittens translates into an electoral landslide without regard to state-by-state polling -- the red states simply don't have enough voters to electorally account for such a robust defeat of Bobo; i.e., Mittens would pick up many Blue states if that many Democrats sat on their hands at 42.
Not unironically, something like the 50-41 Reagan-Carter PV*, albeit electorally it would be a bit closer than that 489-49 EV thrashing. More like 360-178, which is probably Mitten's upper limit, picking up outlier states like Maine, etc.
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