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FSB foils attempted assault on 2014 Winter Olympics
Jamestown Foundation Eurasia Daily Monitor ^ | 5/16/2012 | Richard Arnold

Posted on 05/16/2012 11:55:23 PM PDT by bruinbirdman

With the world’s attention on London in the run-up to the 2012 Summer Olympic Games, it is important to bear in mind that the next Olympics in 2014 will be held in the Russian Black Sea resort town of Sochi, which abuts some of the tallest mountains in Europe. Terrorism is surely an important issue for both sporting events. The announcement on Thursday, May 10 that Russia’s Federal Security Bureau (FSB) had foiled a planned assault however, brings the issue of the Sochi Games’ security to the fore. According to RIA Novosti, Russian and Abkhaz security services seized a cache of arms and arrested three men accused of being part of the North Caucasus terrorist organization, Imarat Kavkaz (Caucasus Emirate -CE) (en.rian.ru, May 10). The weapons included light arms, mines, shells, ammunition, anti-tank and surface-to-air missiles, ten kilos of TNT, flamethrowers and a topographical map of Sochi (mk.ru, May 10). Such damning evidence serves to remind international observers that the Games are likely to be the target of prospective terrorist attacks.


Rosa Khutor Alpine Resort

The discovery of a cache of arms in Abkhazia – especially a cache of arms filled with weapons not habitually used in terrorist assaults – however, should not be taken as definitive proof of a conspiracy. Many arms stockpiles were left over from the civil war that occurred there at the beginning of the 1990s that eventually led to Abkhazia’s de facto independence. Furthermore, the timing of the discoveries raises concerns, coming as it did just after Putin’s inauguration and return to the Presidency as well as his meeting with Abkhazian President Alexander Ankvab in Sochi (mk.ru, May 11). The similarity of the event’s timing to the thwarted “assassination plot” against Putin in Ukraine just before the Presidential election in March (New York Times, February 28) may also indicate that the arms discoveries have more to do with Russian internal politics than the external situation on the ground. Nevertheless, real threats, which could disrupt the Olympics in 2014, do exist in the region.

Perhaps the main such threat is that of radical Islam, which has been a problem in Russia’s North Caucasus since Vladimir Putin’s Second Chechen War from 1999-2002. Certain political analysts allege there are links between Al-Qaeda and the Caucasus Emirate and Doku Umarov, the leader of the CE, has declared the North Caucasus part of the global jihad (Center For Strategic and International Studies, September 1, 2011; The Heritage Foundation, May 20, 2011). Today, terrorist attacks by separatist militants have become an almost daily occurrence in the North Caucasus, especially in the territories of Chechnya, Dagestan and Ingushetia (dagestan.eng, May 8). Furthermore, Sochi is also located just nine miles away from the border with Abkhazia, a de facto independent region of Georgia since the 1990s when it effectively broke away in a war accompanied by ethnic cleansing. Renewed ethnic strife in the region thus also poses a threat to the Games.

A similarly significant threat comes from the fact that Abkhazia was a contested territory in the 2008 Russo-Georgian war and today is recognized as independent by a handful of countries, including Russia and Venezuela. The international situation between Russia and Georgia remains tense to this day. In Russia, the National Anti-Terror Committee (NAK) accused Tbilisi of cooperating with Umarov’s radical Islamists in orchestrating the supposed attacks on Sochi (Moscow Times, May 11). Russia has accused Georgia of colluding with radical Islamists before. The Georgian Interior Ministry released a statement describing the allegations as “utterly absurd” and the alleged links with Islamic militant groups completely baseless (civil.ge, May 10). Although the claims do seem like mud-slinging, this should underscore the fact that relations between Russia and Georgia remain highly tense and are likely to remain so through the Olympic Games as well.

Further, both Russian Neo-Nazis and Cossack paramilitary formations are active in the ethnically Russian regions of the North Caucasus, Krasnodar Krai and Stavropol. There were pogroms against indigenous peoples of the North Caucasus in Stavropol in 2007 and a recent racially-motivated murder in Rostov-on-Don (eng.kavkaz-uzel.ru, May 11). In April, after a brief scuffle with members of the Armenian diaspora, Russian and Cossack nationalists took to the streets in the “Russian jog” in Anapa, Krasnodar Krai (eng.kavkaz-uzel.ru, April 9). The entire area thus remains primed for aggressive action from xenophobic, racist and nationalist groupings. Should radical Islamists or ethnic separatists attempt attacks during the Olympic Games, one could anticipate retaliatory violence from racist elements.

These threats are not solely limited to the 2014 Olympics, but also to the even more popular soccer World Cup in 2018. The matches will take place in European Russia, with the candidate host cities being Moscow, St. Petersburg, Rostov, Krasnodar, Sochi, Volgograd, Ekaterinburg, Samara, Kazan, Nizhny Novgorod, Yaroslavl and Kaliningrad (2008 FIFA World Cup Index, fifa.com). Four of these candidate cities are located in the North Caucasus. With the World Cup final being the most televised sporting event on the globe, it would be highly surprising if terrorists did not see this as an opportunity to bring attention to their cause. Similarly, given the association of football with racism throughout Europe and the fact that many more spectators of non-European descent will be at the World Cup, Neo-Nazi gangs are likely to constitute a more sizeable threat in 2018 than in the 2014 Winter Olympics. Russia will have a lot to do to demonstrate the wisdom of holding both global sporting events in that country.


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Crime/Corruption; Foreign Affairs; News/Current Events
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Moscow Modernizes South Military District

According to the press service of the SMD ( South Military District ), the district will receive over 40 new aircraft, including more than 10 Ka-52 Alligator helicopter gunships, by the end of this year. In terms of the 70 plus percent proportion of modern systems, this relates only to air defense, artillery, armored vehicles, communications and firearms (Interfax, May 4). Moscow is clearly attaching importance to rearming military units in the SMD to bolster the defense of Abkhazia and South Ossetia as well as to enhance counter-terrorist capabilities in the North Caucasus. The district was formed in December 2010 with its headquarters in Rostov-on-Don and consists of ground forces brigades forming two combined-arms armies (58th and 49th armies), the Black Sea Fleet, the Caspian Flotilla, and the 4th air and air defense command as well as four foreign bases in Abkhazia, South Ossetia, Armenia and Ukraine. The Rostov-on-Don headquarters also subordinates all security forces in the SMD to its command (Interfax, May 4).

The precise contours of the rearmament of military units in the SMD were detailed by the district’s commander, Colonel-General Aleksandr Galkin, highlighting the level of progress during an interview with Rossiyskaya Gazeta. General Galkin stated that the Motorized Rifle Brigades in North Ossetia, Dagestan, Volgograd Oblast, Stavropol Krai and Chechnya have been fully re-equipped with T-90A and T-72BM tanks (modernizing their missile/gun armaments), BMP-3 infantry fighting vehicles and BTR-82A armored personnel carriers (APC). More than 230 modern units of artillery have reached the brigades, including Msta-S, Akatsiya and Gvozdiki self-propelled howitzers. In the period from 2010 to 2011, 80 new aircraft also entered service in the SMD. These platforms included the Su-27SM3, Su-30 fighters as well as Mi-35, Mi-28N and Mi-8 helicopters. The Caspian Flotilla has received the Bal-E modern coastal defense system capable of engaging targets at a distance of 100 kilometers and is conducting trails of a gunboat and guided missile ship to enter service later this year. Soldiers in the SMD are acquiring new body armor with improved specifications as well as modern personal gear and equipment to protect servicemen from small-arms rounds, shell fragments and blades (Rossiyskaya Gazeta, May 2).

1 posted on 05/16/2012 11:55:31 PM PDT by bruinbirdman
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To: bruinbirdman
Putin is a thug. But he'll simply quietly announce to the Saudis that if islamic terrorists embarrass him, he'll glass Mecca and Medina. And then NOTHING will happen.

The rest is just PR...

2 posted on 05/17/2012 12:28:19 AM PDT by piytar (The predator-class is furious that their prey are shooting back.)
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