Skip to comments.Three House Primaries To Watch on Tuesday
Posted on 05/21/2012 5:57:13 PM PDT by Clintonfatigued
The primary to replace retiring GOP Rep. Geoff Davis in a heavily Republican district is both a sequel and a tiebreaker for recent GOP contests in the state. The tea party and Kentucky's Republican establishment have squared off in two high-profile contests in the past two years, and each has won one: Rand Paul took the 2010 GOP Senate nomination for the tea party, and establishment figure David Williams won the GOP gubernatorial nomination in 2011. Now, the tea party has the inside track to break the deadlock.
Thomas Massie, a county executive supported by Paul, has an organizational and structural advantage heading into Tuesday's primary against two establishment opponents and a host of lesser lights. State Rep. Alecia Webb-Edgington has Davis's endorsement and some of his old campaign team, while another county executive, Gary Moore, also has some establishment cash and endorsements. But Webb-Edgington and Moore are splitting the same base while Massie works, with some well-funded outside support, to consolidate the Paul wing of the state party.
In Arkansas, two Republicans are also competing for a shot at a GOP-leaning seat, but the 4th District is being vacated by a Democrat, Rep. Mike Ross. Beth Anne Rankin, a former aide to ex-Gov. Mike Huckabee, was the GOP standard bearer against Ross in 2010, and she has Huckabee's support for a repeat bid. But Rankin is running against a Club for Growth-backed candidate, Tom Cotton, who has used the Club's network of national donors to raise over $1 million and fund a series of television ads across the district, even in the parts serviced by an out-of-state media market. Like many repeat candidates, Rankin may have started with an edge, but Cotton's high-powered campaign appears to have overtaken her.
(Excerpt) Read more at hotlineoncall.nationaljournal.com ...
The best choices are Thomas Massie in Kentucky and Beth Anne Rankin Arkansas. Interestingly, both face primary opponents who are worthy, so even if they lost, it wouldn’t be a disaster. But grass roots conservatives with little in the way of national connections would have the proper frame of mind when dealing with the budget problems we face.
Our National Embarrassment may himself be embarrassed tomorrow night, if he does as poorly in his own primary as the NPR story I linked suggests. That a virtual unknown, John Wolfe, is polling within single digits of the President of the United States in a primary election is astonishing enough, but to have it happen a few days after giving up 42% of the vote to a convicted felon in West Virginia's primary shows a weakness that few on the Left (or in the Leftist Media) dare to acknowledge.
I hope and pray they keep on whistling past the graveyard.
I’m leaning to Tom Cotton in the AR race. I’m wary of Huckster disciples, given the disaster he left the party in. Although she performed decently in ‘10, Rankin didn’t come especially close to knocking off Mike Ross, either (58-40%). That was about the same margin when Jay Dickey ran a poorly funded rematch against Ross in 2002, which was regarded as a fiasco (and even though he received a slightly lower %, Dickey received more actual votes than Rankin in that midterm election).
I have not endorsed a candidate in the KY race and don’t particularly see any problems with any of the three running (although I’d probably feel more comfortable with a Geoff Davis/Jim Bunning Conservative necessarily than a Paul supporter, so that would have me leaning towards State Rep. Alecia Webb-Edgington).
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I agree with DJ on both counts.
I think that Cotton is a solid conservative with a great background and would be a sure winner in November, while Rankin did poorly against Ross and hasn’t raised the type of money we need to pick up AR-04.
Regarding KY-04, I would also prefer a candidate endorsed by Bunning and Geoff Davis to one endorsed by the Paulites. Rand Paul has endorsed some good candidates that other conservatives (such as DeMint and Mike Lee) have endorsed, but I’m still apprehensive about candidates Rand endorses while “flying solo.” And I don’t think we’d be better off with more Paul disciples in Congress—we finally got rid of Ron Paul, and I’d like to get rid of defeatist libertarianism within the conservative movement.
Just a minor clarification on AR-4. Cotton has raised almost $1.1 million in the race while Rankin has raised just $400k. Absent Cotton, Rankin still has outraised the leading Democrat fundraiser, Q. Byrum Hurst, who has just $150k. It doesn’t appear the Dems are going to make a serious attempt to retain it.
I also wouldn’t call Rankin’s performance in 2010 as “poor”, as she was the strongest challenger since Jay Dickey was defeated. I just wouldn’t describe her as the strongest currently running. She could certainly take a run for the legislature or perhaps a lesser statewide office in 2014, for which the GOP will have many opportunities.
I would call it poor. She received a lot of hype talk here but got just 40%.
I expect she’d win the open seat, but I’d go with Cotton too.