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Poll: Obama 49 - Romney 46, But..
Townhall.com ^ | May 22, 2012 | Guy Benson

Posted on 05/22/2012 12:28:41 PM PDT by Kaslin

Celebrate good times, liberals -- President Obama has again vaulted ahead of Mitt Romney in a national poll:
 

After months of aggressive campaigning on jobs and the economy, President Obama and Mitt Romney, his likely Republican challenger, are locked in a dead heat over who could fix the problem foremost on voters’ minds, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll. The parity on economic issues foreshadows what probably will continue to be a tough and negative campaign. Overall, voters would be split 49 percent for Obama and 46 percent for Romney if the November election were held now. On handling the economy, they are tied at 47 percent.

Despite flare-ups over issues including contraception and same-sex marriage, more than half of all Americans cite the economy as the one concern that will decide their vote in the fall, relegating others — such as health care, taxes and the federal deficit — to single-digit status. More than eight in 10 Americans still rate the national economy negatively, but there are strains of optimism as it continues to recover from the collapse of 2008. A majority of Americans — 54 percent — say they are more hopeful than anxious about the situation over the next few years, while 58 percent are bullish about their financial prospects.


In this new survey, the president's job approval slipped back underwater (47/49), and his economic marks sank even further (42/55).  So how does Obama manage to pull ahead of Romney in the head-to-head match up in light of his eroded standing?  He gets by with a little help from his friend -- the WaPo/ABC News pollster.  Ed Morrissey blows the lid off of this survey's risible partisan sample:
 

Today’s D/R/I is 32/22/38, which means this model would only be predictive for a turnout model where only 22% of voters are Republican.  Just to remind readers, the 2008 turnout split from exit polls showed a 39/32/29 split, and that was considered a nadir for Republican turnout.  In the 2010 midterms, the split was 35/35/30.


Let's see if I understand this correctly.  WaPo/ABC News' sample handed Democrats a ten point edge (three points higher than 2008 -- a banner year for Democrats), and projected that Republicans would comprise less than a quarter of the electorate in November...and Romney is still within the margin of error?  This outcome has to be disconcerting for the Obama campaign, even as they put on a happy face over the top-line results.  It also may be time for the Washington Post and ABC News to start censoring their polling methodology again, because they're embarrassing themselves.  As I've written previously, the purpose of polling should be to accurately gauge public opinion; it should not be to manipulate the numbers to manufacture "good" news for your preferred candidate.  If the latter goal is the new standard, I'd be happy to roll out another IGB poll* showing Mitt Romney leading Obama by, let's say, 19 points among registered voters.  Useless, bias-massaging polls are fun, aren't they?  In any case, the Obama campaign's grand scheme to undermine Romney's advantage on the economy is to paint him as a "vampire capitalist" who destroyed businesses for profit.  (A top Democrat is now classily using rape imagery to demagogue Bain).  This idiotic attack strategy is been rebuffed by an expanding roster of Obama allies, the latest of whom is former Pennsylvania Governor Ed Rendell:
 

Rendell joined the chorus of criticism of Obama’s attacks on finance, whose leaders have written checks to many members of both parties. “I think they’re very disappointing,” Rendell said of the ads attacking Bain. “I think Bain is fair game, because Romney has made it fair game. But I think how you examine it, the tone, what you say, is important as well.” As for Booker, “I admire him,” Rendell said. “People in politics should tell the truth. He could have qualified it better, he could have framed it better, but if you’re in this business, none of us like negative ads.”


Maybe some Democrats are wary of these economically-illiterate and hypocritical criticisms because they've seen the fresh numbers from Rasmussen:
 

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 44% of Likely U.S. Voters believe that Romney’s track record in business is primarily a reason to vote for him. Thirty-three percent (33%) see his business career as chiefly a reason to vote against him ... Fifty-five percent (55%) voters believe venture capital companies are better at creating jobs than government programs are.  Only 26% see government programs as better job creators. Nineteen percent (19%) are not sure. That’s essentially unchanged from January.


Obama has even lost his most devoted center-right sycophant on this issue. If you're still not convinced of O's epic Bain bust, Jennifer Rubin convincingly enumerates the persuasive evidence.  I'd posit that it might be time for Team O to go back to the drawing board, but what else do they have?  This is their gameplan.  Their entire re-election strategy is predicated on fear-mongering about Republican solutions, demonizing Mitt Romney's private sector experience, and pretending that Obama's record isn't a fetid ash heap of broken promises, economic hardship, suffocating debt, and demonstrable failure.  That last bit presents impossibly tough sledding, so more unresponsive, mindless campaign babble it is!  After all, this campaign "is going to be about" Bain Captial, come hell or high water -- so sayeth The One.  Oh goodie.


*IGB is a polling firm that exists exclusively in this author's mind.  Methodology inquiries will be ignored.  Thank you.


TOPICS: Culture/Society; Editorial; Front Page News; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2012polls; baincapital; barackobama; dinosaurmedia; edrendell; jenniferrubin; lies; mittromney; msm; rasmussen; spin; washingtonpost
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To: galloway15

And then there’s the whole chicken nugget dilemma. Spicy, or regular? Ranch, or Sweet & Sour?


21 posted on 05/22/2012 12:59:50 PM PDT by SandyInSeattle (Running in circles and screaming is not a strategy.)
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To: jveritas

“Not all independents are “mooshy middle” by the way... You can find a lot of conservatives who consider themselves independents”

That is the truth. I would like to see a ideological poll of independents to see what the make up is.


22 posted on 05/22/2012 1:02:34 PM PDT by WILLIALAL
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To: myself6

Really?

Who would you vote for between Senator candidates (If you were from Massachusetts) Elizabeth Warren or Scott Brown? Compared to nearly all republicans, Scott Brown is liberal. However, I would rather have him than the Cherokee wanna-be.

If 0bama is re-elected it will be because of people like you.

Our nation is held hostage by a socialist and may not survive if O is elected. Why not “stop the bleeding” now and get a better candidate the next time. Or, do you want to prove your point so much that you’re willing to see our nation quickly go into socialist policies???


23 posted on 05/22/2012 1:03:45 PM PDT by Justice4awe
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To: Kaslin

Starting in January, the poll has consisted of Republicans at 25%, 23%, 27%, 23%, and now 22%.

If we extapolate these results, there will 19% Republicans by November.


24 posted on 05/22/2012 1:05:19 PM PDT by grumpygresh (Democrats delenda est; zero sera dans l'enfer bientot.)
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To: myself6
Best bet for the GOP is to talk enough of the delegates into skipping the first round or voting at the convention, cause I don’t think the folks who say they wont vote for a socialist even if he has a R behind his name are bluffing.

Very astute observation on your part myself6.

25 posted on 05/22/2012 1:06:31 PM PDT by houeto (https://secure.freerepublic.com/donate/)
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To: Buckeye McFrog
These are the same people who bring the drive thru to a screeching halt for fifteen minutes because they can't decide what to order off of the Value Menu.

LOL! Ain't that the truth?

I park and go in specifically to avoid these nimrods and they'll do the same damn thing at the counter. But at least I'm not idling off $3.75 per gallon gas while waiting for them to make up their minds.

26 posted on 05/22/2012 1:08:12 PM PDT by Vigilanteman (Obama: Fake black man. Fake Messiah. Fake American. How many fakes can you fit in one Zer0?)
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To: Kaslin

The terrifying part is that 45% either don’t know or believe that government is best at creating jobs. This election is a close thing and unless we get our children’s minds back from the government school system our America isn’t long for this world.


27 posted on 05/22/2012 1:11:27 PM PDT by 1010RD (First, Do No Harm)
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To: Kaslin

That 47% of any sample could say that Obama could handle the economy better than anyone else speaks to the insanity of the group.


28 posted on 05/22/2012 1:21:55 PM PDT by Mike Darancette (Ineptocracy; the Obama way.)
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To: Kaslin

That 47% of any sample could say that Obama could handle the economy better than anyone else speaks to the insanity of the group.


29 posted on 05/22/2012 1:22:19 PM PDT by Mike Darancette (Ineptocracy; the Obama way.)
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To: Kaslin

That 47% of any sample could say that Obama could handle the economy better than anyone else speaks to the insanity of the group.


30 posted on 05/22/2012 1:22:28 PM PDT by Mike Darancette (Ineptocracy; the Obama way.)
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To: myself6

the brown shirts thank you for your cooperation.....


31 posted on 05/22/2012 1:23:26 PM PDT by Hogblog
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To: Kaslin

People are simply are lying to the poll takers simply to not reveal their true feelings about Obama, which is negivtive at best.


32 posted on 05/22/2012 1:23:58 PM PDT by Biggirl ("Jesus talked to us as individuals"-Jim Vicevich/Thanks JimV!)
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To: Kaslin

The terrifying part is that 45% either don’t know or believe that government is best at creating jobs. This election is a close thing and unless we get our children’s minds back from the government school system our America isn’t long for this world.


33 posted on 05/22/2012 1:29:00 PM PDT by 1010RD (First, Do No Harm)
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To: Mike Darancette
That 47% of any sample could say that Obama could handle the economy better than anyone else speaks to the insanity of the group.
TV and government schooling have done their work lobotomizing America.
34 posted on 05/22/2012 2:00:38 PM PDT by samtheman
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To: cicero2k

It may be because people are simply tired of seeing Obama everywhere in their face with his teleprompter. Too much Obama means he definitely will never win.


35 posted on 05/22/2012 2:06:13 PM PDT by FreedBird
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To: SandyInSeattle

I know, I know, I tell ya it’s enough to drive a guy to drink. And the salads, what about all the different salads with all those choices for dressing? Or for crissakes NO DRESSING at all!!!

Tryin’ to decide if I want fresh garlic or onion on my sausage pie is bad enough but THIS...

Maybe I’ll jut go back on a Ritz cracker diet. Regular size or mini...?


36 posted on 05/22/2012 2:18:02 PM PDT by galloway15
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To: Justice4awe
"Our nation is held hostage by a socialist and may not survive if O is elected. Why not “stop the bleeding” now and get a better candidate the next time. Or, do you want to prove your point so much that you’re willing to see our nation quickly go into socialist policies???"

Put perfectly, but you better be careful with this kind of talk. Folks have been booted from here for saying similar things. Hell I'm probably in danger for even areeing with you.

37 posted on 05/22/2012 2:23:04 PM PDT by galloway15
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To: jveritas

It is that thought pattern that the GOP-e are following as a game plan. I believe it to be incorrect. I am of the opinion that the side that turns out their BASE is the side that wins elections. There simply is not enough motivated middle anymore.

I also believe that the GOP-e will lose in the exchange of the base who will not vote for Romney, because they will not gain enough independants to compensate for the loss.


38 posted on 05/22/2012 2:34:54 PM PDT by taxcontrol
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To: Justice4awe
“Who would you vote for between Senator candidates (If you were from Massachusetts) Elizabeth Warren or Scott Brown? Compared to nearly all republicans, Scott Brown is liberal. However, I would rather have him than the Cherokee wanna-be.”

BINGO! That's why as much as I really DO NOT like Brown (he's voted for some really bad legislation), I WILL vote for him in November: the alternative, Granny Tee-Pee, is truly horrific.

It's the same dilemma we have with Romney vs. Obama. Romney sucks, but we CANNOT survive four more years of the Kenyan.

39 posted on 05/22/2012 2:36:27 PM PDT by GOPsterinMA (We may die, but DISCO LIVES FOREVER!!!)
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To: Kaslin

Correct me please if I am mistaken, but I believe the pollsters, as a rule, recalculate the raw returns according to party affiliation. The numbers they report are not the raw numbers but the “recalculated according to sampling” numbers.

If there is an actual polling expert out there, please verify or clarify, thank you.


40 posted on 05/22/2012 2:56:08 PM PDT by cookcounty ("We're all born idiots, and we only get over that condition as we get less young." -J Goldberg)
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